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2021 Hall of Fame thread

Beau Vine

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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Posnanski has a piece up on The Athletic about Helton today. He's an interesting case. Career .316/.414/.539, 369 HR, 2519 hits. 

Of course the knock on him is Coors Field. But Helton's numbers hold up well even after adjusting for ballpark - 133 OPS+, 132 wRC+ for his career. 

He probably should have won the NL MVP award in 2000 but he laughably finished 5th despite leading the NL in WAR - which I know wasn't on anyone's radar back then, but it speaks to how people were too dismissive of the Coors Field park effect. Again, I'd look to his park-adjusted numbers, which suggest that he was about 30% better than the average hitter over his career (which isn't necessarily HOF-worthy among 1B), including 4 seasons in which he was over 60% better. 

He probably needed a few more elite seasons (his power sort of weirdly disappeared after about 7 seasons) to get in. Still, interesting case - Walker was the first guy with Coors numbers to get in, but he played enough games in Montreal and St Louis for voters to believe most of his Coors stats. 

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Guest Lobo

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Walker is an enigma.  Really just 11 good seasons.  Some of them truly great, and nevermind Coors Field.  But take out '89 and '90 for being subpar.  Then '96 and '00 (he was injured, but on his way to great seasons).  And he limped into retirement with shitty seasons in '04 and '05.  So 11 good seasons in a hitter-friendly park.  Not really HOF-worthy, but he's in and there's no going back and he was a very underrated RF in terms of defense.  Helton is more deserving, IMO, despite playing every season for Colorado.  We got our arms around Relievers, we're getting our arms around Designated Hitters.  Surely we can get our arms around baseball being played more than 55 feet above sea level (altitude of Yankee Stadium).  

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

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1 hour ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Posnanski has a piece up on The Athletic about Helton today. He's an interesting case. Career .316/.414/.539, 369 HR, 2519 hits. 

Of course the knock on him is Coors Field. But Helton's numbers hold up well even after adjusting for ballpark - 133 OPS+, 132 wRC+ for his career. 

He probably should have won the NL MVP award in 2000 but he laughably finished 5th despite leading the NL in WAR - which I know wasn't on anyone's radar back then, but it speaks to how people were too dismissive of the Coors Field park effect. Again, I'd look to his park-adjusted numbers, which suggest that he was about 30% better than the average hitter over his career (which isn't necessarily HOF-worthy among 1B), including 4 seasons in which he was over 60% better. 

He probably needed a few more elite seasons (his power sort of weirdly disappeared after about 7 seasons) to get in. Still, interesting case - Walker was the first guy with Coors numbers to get in, but he played enough games in Montreal and St Louis for voters to believe most of his Coors stats. 

If you are going to look past the positive effects of Coors, then you should allow for the negative effects of the deadball Dome. And now it's too late to do much good, but Jimmy Wynn should have been long ago. Cheo and Cedeno have cases too. Those three are various orange rainbow shades of borderline, but all three rank ahead in WAR of guys like Puckett, Jim Rice, and Kiner, and nobody kicks up much of a fuss about them being in. And it's likely Joe Morgan has Spec Richardson to thank for his status as an elite Hall of Famer, because his non-ballpark adjusted stats would not have gotten him there. He might have made it in via postseason heroics, as his Astros had a chance at being the elite team of the mid-to-late '70s, but Spec saw to it they would remain mediocre or worse for an entire decade. He truly was the Bill O'Brien of baseball. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Walker is an enigma.  Really just 11 good seasons.  Some of them truly great, and nevermind Coors Field.  But take out '89 and '90 for being subpar.  Then '96 and '00 (he was injured, but on his way to great seasons).  And he limped into retirement with shitty seasons in '04 and '05.  So 11 good seasons in a hitter-friendly park.  Not really HOF-worthy, but he's in and there's no going back and he was a very underrated RF in terms of defense.  Helton is more deserving, IMO, despite playing every season for Colorado.  We got our arms around Relievers, we're getting our arms around Designated Hitters.  Surely we can get our arms around baseball being played more than 55 feet above sea level (altitude of Yankee Stadium).  

Yeah he's a strange case too. He only played one season in which he participated in 150+ games (and he won the MVP). Career slash line and offensive value is about even with Helton (career 140 wRC+, slightly better than Helton). Walker accumulated more WAR because he added value on the bases and was a good defensive OF. 

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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14 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

If you are going to look past the positive effects of Coors, then you should allow for the negative effects of the deadball Dome. And now it's too late to do much good, but Jimmy Wynn should have been long ago. Cheo and Cedeno have cases too. Those three are various orange rainbow shades of borderline, but all three rank ahead in WAR of guys like Puckett, Jim Rice, and Kiner, and nobody kicks up much of a fuss about them being in. And it's likely Joe Morgan has Spec Richardson to thank for his status as an elite Hall of Famer, because his non-ballpark adjusted stats would not have gotten him there. He might have made it in via postseason heroics, as his Astros had a chance at being the elite team of the mid-to-late '70s, but Spec saw to it they would remain mediocre or worse for an entire decade. He truly was the Bill O'Brien of baseball. 

Oh yeah - posted about this in the Joe Morgan thread, but his time in Houston was undervalued in part because nobody was quantifying park effects back then. In '66-'67, he was evaluated based on hitting .285 and .275 with a combined 11 HR, not the 131 wRC+ (which adjusts for park effects) that he posted each of those seasons. And yeah, Wynn had a similar case. Both guys also walked a lot, which nobody cared about back then. Wynn and Helton don't look particularly similar in terms of their statistical totals, but their park-adjusted values are awfully close.

(And yeah - it was before my time, but man, a lineup built around Morgan, Watson, Cedeno, Wynn and a staff with Dierker, Wilson, etc would have been pretty damn good.)

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52498

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Just looking at who b-r lists as similar to Helton, there’s not a great direct comparison.  For contemporaries, he seems to have a higher WAR than others with similar stats.  The best overall comparison seems to be Johnny mize, but then you think of playing in the 40s vs coors field in the 2000s. 

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

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1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Oh yeah - posted about this in the Joe Morgan thread, but his time in Houston was undervalued because nobody was quantifying park effects back then. In '66-'67, he was evaluated based on hitting .285 and .275 with a combined 11 HR, not the 131 wRC+ (which adjusts for park effects) that he posted each of those seasons. And yeah, Wynn had a similar case. Both guys also walked a lot, which nobody cared about back then. Wynn and Helton don't look particularly similar in terms of their statistical totals, but their park-adjusted values are awfully close.

(And yeah - it was before my time, but man, a lineup built around Morgan, Watson, Cedeno, Wynn and a staff with Dierker, Wilson, etc would have been pretty damn good.)

Yeah before my time too, but they would have also had Mayberry, Staub, and Mike Cuellar and Mike Marshall and Dave Giusti in the mix. And young pitchers like Dave Roberts, Jerry Reuss and Ken Forsch. 

Some sadistic asshole wrote a two-part blog piece about what could have been. Finding part one is tricky as it's not linked back from two, but I suspect you might need to collect yourself after you read part 2 anyway. 

Here is a snippet of the virtual 1972 season he put together:

Quote

The exceptionally deep and well-rounded offense, second in the league in batting average while leading the league by enormous margins in home runs and walks, on-base percentage and slugging average, would rout opponents. Indeed the team OPS+ of 127 would establish a National League record, surpassed in history only by the overwhelming performances of the Ruth–Gehrig New York Yankee teams of the 1920s and 1930s. (And not that this ball club would need to, but if it wanted to run wild on the basepaths, the Astros were loaded with speed as well: Morgan and Cedeño were two-three in the major leagues in steals in 1972, with 58 and 55.)

The pitching wouldn’t be great, but it would be very good, finishing fourth in the 12-team league in ERA+.

Together the offense and defense would yield a won-lost record of 101-52 in the strike-shortened season, by far the best record in the majors. The winning percentage of .660 would be the highest by any National League team since the 1953 Dodgers.

 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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Mark Buehrle:

•5 all star teams in 16 seasons 

•214-160 W/L (.572)

•career k/9 of 5.1 (!!)

•postseason record of 2-1 (played in 5 playoff series in 16 years), with a 4.11 ERA and 16 k's in 30.2 IP. had a 4.91 ERA in two appearances (7.1 IP) in the 2005 World Series

yeah, that resume just screams HOFer, doesn't it?

 

edit: Brooks Kieschnick has a career k/9 of 6.3. congrats Mark Buehrle, you're a less prolific strikeout artist than a career journeyman OF who then pitched for two seasons in his 30's once nobody wanted him to bat any more. HOF for sure 👌🏼 

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Guest Lobo

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^
I think you're overlooking the fact that Buehrle won 4 gold gloves, once finished in the Top 10 of Cy Young votes, and only lost 10+ games in ten different seasons.  

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Guest Lobo

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Yeah dude, I was being sarcastic.  Hence me referencing him losing double-digit games in ten different seasons.  I agree with you.  I don't know this Phil Rogers cat, but his ballot is suspicious, at best.  

I have to admit (because I don't like the Cardinals or the Phillies), that Scott Rolen deserves to get in eventually simply because of he compares to other third basemen that area already in Cooperstown.  Now why he made the 2011 all-star team, I'll never know.  But someday, the guy deserves his spot in the Hall.  3B is an exclusive club in Cooperstown, the least amount of any position.  And Rolen was as good as over half of them.  

really curious if Schilling makes it in this year or if he has to wait until his final ballot.  

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54230

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9 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

Mark Buehrle:

•5 all star teams in 16 seasons 

•214-160 W/L (.572)

•career k/9 of 5.1 (!!)

•postseason record of 2-1 (played in 5 playoff series in 16 years), with a 4.11 ERA and 16 k's in 30.2 IP. had a 4.91 ERA in two appearances (7.1 IP) in the 2005 World Series

yeah, that resume just screams HOFer, doesn't it?

 

edit: Brooks Kieschnick has a career k/9 of 6.3. congrats Mark Buehrle, you're a less prolific strikeout artist than a career journeyman OF who then pitched for two seasons in his 30's once nobody wanted him to bat any more. HOF for sure 👌🏼 

I have no idea why Buehrle has your panties in such a wad.  He had a great career, better than quite a few guys who are in the HoF.  He's not a HoFer, but it's not absurd that someone voted for him.  

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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Rolen actually has a decent case. The only difference between he and Beltre (who will certainly get in on his first ballot) is that Beltre stayed healthy longer and played in 900 more games. 

Rolen: .281/.364/.490; 122 wRC+; 122 OPS+

Beltre: .286/.339/.480; 115 wRC+; 116 OPS+

Beltre accumulated more counting numbers because he played longer - and that does matter. But both finished in the top-5 in MVP voting only once, Rolen won ROY, Rolen was in more AS games, etc. Neither necessarily seemed like HOFers while they were playing because neither was generally one of the 5-10 best players in his league. Beltre never seemed "great" until his last few seasons when everyone realized he was inching toward 3000 hits and 500 HR - he was actually a pretty average hitter for the first decade of his career. 

I'm not saying Rolen is a clear HOFer, just that he has a pretty good case and that he compares favorably to a guy that is a clear HOFer, albeit in a significantly shorter career. His 70 WAR puts him among guys like Santo, Miguel Cabrera (who played 3B for a while), Paul Molitor, Edgar Martinez. He has a case. 

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3591

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I think Rolen playing 17 seasons hurts him more than if he quit after 12 in the eyes of the voter. 2077 hits in 17 seasons (122 per year), 316 hr's over 17 seasons (18.5 per year), etc. But he won 8 GG and it worked for Ozzie Smith. I also think Jeter was a 2nd/3rd year HOF compared to the 99.9% vote he got.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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On 1/5/2021 at 2:44 AM, shnsajax said:

I think Rolen playing 17 seasons hurts him more than if he quit after 12 in the eyes of the voter. 2077 hits in 17 seasons (122 per year), 316 hr's over 17 seasons (18.5 per year), etc. But he won 8 GG and it worked for Ozzie Smith. I also think Jeter was a 2nd/3rd year HOF compared to the 99.9% vote he got.

Meter might be the most overrated baseball player of all time. 
note for the hoppleheads- overrated doesn’t mean sucks. 
If someone is the 15th best at something and everyone claims he’s 1st or 2nd then he is overrated AF

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dcar00

dcar00 14210

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On 1/5/2021 at 2:44 AM, shnsajax said:

I think Rolen playing 17 seasons hurts him more than if he quit after 12 in the eyes of the voter. 2077 hits in 17 seasons (122 per year), 316 hr's over 17 seasons (18.5 per year), etc. But he won 8 GG and it worked for Ozzie Smith. I also think Jeter was a 2nd/3rd year HOF compared to the 99.9% vote he got.

GG's really only matter for C, SS, 2B and maybe CF.  it might be a tie breaker but everyone else gets in on hitting.

longevity and health count a lot to get total overall numbers and keep many out unless you are otherworldly like Koufax.

Unfortunately I wouldn't call Rolen other worldly but in the WAR era maybe he gets in.

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dcar00

dcar00 14210

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On 1/6/2021 at 6:58 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Meter might be the most overrated baseball player of all time. 
note for the hoppleheads- overrated doesn’t mean sucks. 
If someone is the 15th best at something and everyone claims he’s 1st or 2nd then he is overrated AF

when people talk about WAR and OPS+ being so important, I just say Derek Jeter/Bobby Grich.   

Yeah he's overrated but Jeter is a HOFer, the guy was consistent as it gets for 16 years.  you get points for showing up to the park every day.  for a SS he was very average fielding.

he gets the yankee bump and it sure did help hitting in those lineups.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

when people talk about WAR and OPS+ being so important, I just say Derek Jeter/Bobby Grich.   

Yeah he's overrated but Jeter is a HOFer, the guy was consistent as it gets for 16 years.  you get points for showing up to the park every day.  for a SS he was very average fielding.

he gets the yankee bump and it sure did help hitting in those lineups.

Agreed completely. No doubt HOF-er. People act like he was an all timer. He wasn’t that level at all. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19070

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17 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

GG's really only matter for C, SS, 2B and maybe CF.  it might be a tie breaker but everyone else gets in on hitting.

longevity and health count a lot to get total overall numbers and keep many out unless you are otherworldly like Koufax.

Unfortunately I wouldn't call Rolen other worldly but in the WAR era maybe he gets in.

3rd bass is a really weird position and underrepresented in the HOF. I wouldn’t bitch about Rolen making it in, and I’m a big hall proponent, but I’m not insistent that he should be in. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14210

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23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

3rd bass is a really weird position and underrepresented in the HOF. I wouldn’t bitch about Rolen making it in, and I’m a big hall proponent, but I’m not insistent that he should be in. 

How about my man Buddy Bell.

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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Among 3B, I think Rolen, Bell, Graig Nettles, Darrell Evans, Robin Ventura are all just outside the HOF. I think they're all underrated players, but probably not HOFers. Maybe Bando and Cey are in that group too. Rolen has the best case out of those guys IMO. 

David Wright was on his way, but he was never healthy after he turned 30. 

 

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dcar00

dcar00 14210

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47 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

Among 3B, I think Rolen, Bell, Graig Nettles, Darrell Evans, Robin Ventura are all just outside the HOF. I think they're all underrated players, but probably not HOFers. Maybe Bando and Cey are in that group too. Rolen has the best case out of those guys IMO. 

David Wright was on his way, but he was never healthy after he turned 30. 

 

3B is weird.  usually they are fielders and sometimes converted catchers.   rarely big hitters and their fielding is rarely valued like SS 2B(Robinson exception). you have Boggs, Brett, Schmidt, Matthews, Beltre(first ballot), Robinson, Chipper, Molitor and then.........Santo.  Santo took forever and is almost a carbon copy of Rolen.

Nettles and Evans have 390 and 414 HR's respectively but hit sub .250 in an era that valued BA a lot.   Evans did play a bunch of time at 1B which hurts him also.  Nettles was a true 3B.  3B get converted to 1B some when they lose the fielding but can still hit or DH if there is already a 1B.

Rolen was an excellent fielder and it might be enough to help get him over the top.

 

Edited by dcar00
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Guest Lobo

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Yeah, I'm no Rolen fan...but you're gonna compare him to Darrell Evans and Buddy Bell?  WTF?  

And Robin Ventura?  WAR under 60, less than 1900 hits, less than 300 hr's, hit less than .270, barely an .800 OPS, good glove but not spectacular, and compares statistically the most to Ron "the Penguin" Cey.  Fuck that noise. 

3B in Cooperstown is an elite group for a reason.  First criteria of which is you have to be better than Todd Zeile.  I know he was a Texas guy, but fuck Buddy Bell.  Fuck Nettles.  /rant 

It really does make you realize how good Eddie Matthews and Brooks Robinson were.  

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Hank Chinaski

Hank Chinaski 6315

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10 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, I'm no Rolen fan...but you're gonna compare him to Darrell Evans and Buddy Bell?  WTF?  

And Robin Ventura?  WAR under 60, less than 1900 hits, less than 300 hr's, hit less than .270, barely an .800 OPS, good glove but not spectacular, and compares statistically the most to Ron "the Penguin" Cey.  Fuck that noise. 

3B in Cooperstown is an elite group for a reason.  First criteria of which is you have to be better than Todd Zeile.  I know he was a Texas guy, but fuck Buddy Bell.  Fuck Nettles.  /rant 

It really does make you realize how good Eddie Matthews and Brooks Robinson were.  

Rolen: 122 wRC+; 70 fWAR

Evans: 120 wRC+; 61 fWAR

Bell: 108 wRC+; 62 fWAR

Nettles: 111 wRC+; 67 fWAR

Ventura: 113 wRC+; 57 fWAR

Like I said, Rolen has the best case of these guys. And if you wanted to argue that they aren't in the same "tier," that's fine - to me, they seem comparable among 3B (for example, maybe Ventura belongs a notch below the others). Other than Evans, they all get value boosts from their defensive metrics, which are certainly less precise than their offensive metrics. 

I don't think that any of them are HOFers, though. 

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Guest Lobo

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^
Fair points.  It'll be a few years on Rolen.  I think Adrian Beltre is a first ballot HOF, even at 3B.  But he's not on there for 3 more years and would certainly take away votes from Rolen if they appear on there together.  3B is an interesting case study for the Hall though.  You get guys like George Kell in there with a 37 WAR, barely 2000 hits, and a shit glove.  After Beltre and then eventually Rolen, I don't know we'll see another 3B go in for a very, very long time.  Arenado looks like he's on track for a HOF career, but of course they'll question his play at Coors Field.  Although at that point, Colorado will have been playing baseball for 50 years...so yeah---maybe it's time to come to grips with relief pitchers, the DH, and baseball played at altitude.  

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52498

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On 1/11/2021 at 10:48 AM, dcar00 said:

Bells war is 66 nettles is 68 I think and roland is 70.  I never said bell should be in the hof. He shouldn't but to say they arent somewhat on the same tier would be ignoring war. Yes rolen had injur issues which kept him down so I think he gets in.

I’m a proponent of rolen getting in, but a related question is at what point do injuries get excused in the minds of the voters?

or even early retirement?

tony canigliaro, jose Fernandez. They aren’t getting in based on how well they did when they weren’t injured. Both are extreme cases obviously as opposed to being injured often and recovering.

a guy like Koufax quit the game after a relatively short career, but he was so good that it didn’t matter. Maybe there’s other examples of guys voluntarily retiring in their late 20s or early 30s that didn’t give themselves the years to stack cumulative stats?  How have, or would, those kind of guys get adjudicated by the writers?  Some guy shows up, hits .300 with 233 hr (or the similar advanced stats of your choice like 42 war) over 6 seasons, then abruptly retires for whatever reason. 
does that guy get in?  Has that guy existed?

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dcar00

dcar00 14210

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20 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m a proponent of rolen getting in, but a related question is at what point do injuries get excused in the minds of the voters?

or even early retirement?

tony canigliaro, jose Fernandez. They aren’t getting in based on how well they did when they weren’t injured. Both are extreme cases obviously as opposed to being injured often and recovering.

a guy like Koufax quit the game after a relatively short career, but he was so good that it didn’t matter. Maybe there’s other examples of guys voluntarily retiring in their late 20s or early 30s that didn’t give themselves the years to stack cumulative stats?  How have, or would, those kind of guys get adjudicated by the writers?  Some guy shows up, hits .300 with 233 hr (or the similar advanced stats of your choice like 42 war) over 6 seasons, then abruptly retires for whatever reason. 
does that guy get in?  Has that guy existed?

IMO, you have to have a solid 8-10 years as being one of the top 2 at your position.  Rolen gets in because he was an 8 time GG winner.  Without those I think he's out.

Edit - I also think pitchers should be given more leeway considering it all depends on how their arm holds up.  Koufax is a weird case.

guy had 6 below average years and then had 6 great to unbelievable years winning 3 CY's.  obvious HOFer but I can't think of another career like his.

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