COVID-19 vaccine discussion

[midtown 3346]

Picked up a piece from NY today that says China is really pissed that there vaccine is only 60% effective vs America's that are +90%.   Don't be surprised if people start quoting some of the mis-information China is apparently pushing out.  There are multiple articles about it.  Worth a google if you want to stay up on the whole topic. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Here's another question - one of my elders has had a hell of a time with the vaccine.  48 hours in we've had blurred vision, feeling like in a sauna, pretty bad nausea, severe pain at shot site.  Nothing like fever or rash or other cause for alarm, but much worse than the other 4 elders by far.  What's interesting is that he is the one we were somewhat sure had actually already had COVID but never got a test while he felt sick.  COVID (if that's what it was) was much milder than this vaccine so far.  

So now I'm wondering if (i) it's more intense for people who already had COVID (which honestly only makes sense in a "this shit is weird" way) or (ii) we were wrong, he didn't have it, and that there's a possible correlation between reaction to the vaccine and how sick he would have been had he actually really had COVID (which kinda makes sense logically).

Any data there?

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

6 minutes ago, midtown said:

Picked up a piece from NY today that says China is really pissed that there vaccine is only 60% effective vs America's that are +90%.   Don't be surprised if people start quoting some of the mis-information China is apparently pushing out.  There are multiple articles about it.  Worth a google if you want to stay up on the whole topic. 

Their shot is the adenovirus type like Russia's, right?  From what I understand, those would be expected to be somewhere around there, like a flu shot.

[midtown 3346]

2 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Any data there?

I've read almost every article I have come across and yet to see any examples of this.  I didn't see it mentioned in the FDA brief either.   My only guess it that everyone is different and you are going to get some outliers when you get into millions upon millions of people getting injected. 

6 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Their shot is the adenovirus type like Russia's, right?  From what I understand, those would be expected to be somewhere around there, like a flu shot.

I believe so but they claimed it was much higher and aren't happy about the lower efficacy.  The whole save face thing. Some countries who bought from them apparently aren't even giving it.

[SizzleChest 8284]

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Moderna already ramping up a new vaccine, despite saying that it works against the SA variant. 

 

Well, they are a publicly traded biotech company.

[Anastasis 23475]

26 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So now I'm wondering if (i) it's more intense for people who already had COVID (which honestly only makes sense in a "this shit is weird" way) or (ii) we were wrong, he didn't have it, and that there's a possible correlation between reaction to the vaccine and how sick he would have been had he actually really had COVID (which kinda makes sense logically).

 

There are quite a few anecdotal reports coming out from people that previously had C19 having significant reactivity to the vax on first dose. 

[SizzleChest 8284]

dp

Edited January 25, 2021 by SizzleChest

[Anastasis 23475]

34 minutes ago, midtown said:

Picked up a piece from NY today that says China is really pissed that there vaccine is only 60% effective vs America's that are +90%.   Don't be surprised if people start quoting some of the mis-information China is apparently pushing out.  There are multiple articles about it.  Worth a google if you want to stay up on the whole topic. 

I havent kept up with china as closely, but they were running both more "traditional" attenuated virus vaccines as well as the more "cutting edge" vector vaccines at it. 

[Anastasis 23475]

2 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Well, they are a publicly traded biotech company.

And the technology really allows for a rapid response. If we can get comfortable with the general mRNA approach it is a pandemic game changer.  

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

There are quite a few anecdotal reports coming out from people that previously had C19 having significant reactivity to the vax on first dose. 

That would certainly make the most sense from this anecdotal perspective.

[elfenix 34307]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

And the technology really allows for a rapid response. If we can get comfortable with the general mRNA approach it is a pandemic game changer.  

not just pandemics but think about all the other things you can program with mRNA.  this shit might be the biggest advancement to human health since indoor plumbing. 

[Heme Doc 417]

43 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Here's another question - one of my elders has had a hell of a time with the vaccine.  48 hours in we've had blurred vision, feeling like in a sauna, pretty bad nausea, severe pain at shot site.  Nothing like fever or rash or other cause for alarm, but much worse than the other 4 elders by far.  What's interesting is that he is the one we were somewhat sure had actually already had COVID but never got a test while he felt sick.  COVID (if that's what it was) was much milder than this vaccine so far.  

So now I'm wondering if (i) it's more intense for people who already had COVID (which honestly only makes sense in a "this shit is weird" way) or (ii) we were wrong, he didn't have it, and that there's a possible correlation between reaction to the vaccine and how sick he would have been had he actually really had COVID (which kinda makes sense logically).

Any data there?

Anecdotally, people who’ve had COVID seem to react more strongly to the vaccine.  Likely due to the immune system already being primed against the virus and when the immune system sees virus again, it’s super pissed off about it

[Anastasis 23475]

2 minutes ago, Heme Doc said:

Anecdotally, people who’ve had COVID seem to react more strongly to the vaccine.  Likely due to the immune system already being primed against the virus and when the immune system sees virus again, it’s super pissed off about it

It makes sense.  Second dose reactivity is more severe. People that have been previously exposed are primed for reactivity. Same same. 

[Anastasis 23475]

4 minutes ago, elfenix said:

not just pandemics but think about all the other things you can program with mRNA.  this shit might be the biggest advancement to human health since indoor plumbing. 

Big boobs?  Tell me that there will be big boobs?

[elfenix 34307]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Big boobs?  Tell me that there will be big boobs?

[Anastasis 23475]

5 minutes ago, elfenix said:

I'd let her check my plumbing. 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

 

That's incredible.

[Message Board User 12395]

More vaccine data - 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Message Board User

[UTexasFight 9494]

47 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Haha

See, even efficacy rates are are glad the calendar turned to 2021...

90% in 2020

99.985% in 2021 bitches!

[dcar00 14266]

53 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

57 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

That's incredible.

[Message Board User 12395]

14 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Haha

See, even efficacy rates are are glad the calendar turned to 2021...

90% in 2020

99.985% in 2021 bitches!

One could make the argument that the efficacy rate is more like 100.00%, considering even those who tested positive for Covid post-vaccine didn't have to be hospitalized (in other words, their post-vaccine illness would look more like a mild case of...wait for it...the flu).

Edited January 26, 2021 by Message Board User

[midtown 3346]

One could make the argument that the efficacy rate is more like 100.00%, considering even those who tested positive for Covid post-vaccine didn't have to be hospitalized (in other words, their post-vaccine illness would look more like a mild case of...wait for it...the flu).

Correct me if I'm wrong. 50% and 96% means that at one shot you have a 50/50 chance of your body making anti bodies. At the second shot your body has a 96% chance. It's an individual stat. Not a group stat.

[Surly Bevo 25047]

Yea nobody will have too much fucks to give about Covid if all it means when you get it is you are sick for a few days.  

Way too long of a weekend bender. Monday morning rolls around "uh yea boss I'm not gonna make it in today think I got the Covid. Probably be able to make it in tomorrow, Wednesday at worst."

When Hollywood inevitably remakes Ferris Bueller's Day Off instead of his "non-specific" symptom being clammy hands, he can claim lack of smell and taste. 

Lots of miles to go before that's the reality but here's to hoping.

Edited January 26, 2021 by Surly Bevo

[Baboontyme 2813]

I am in the Moderna trial. I received my first shot in August and second in September. Zero side effects. Today was my unblinding. She asked me if I had a guess and confirmed that my placebo guess was correct. I asked her how many people guess correctly and she said pretty much all of them. Pretty telling. Also I'm surprised at how much my arm hurts.

I will get to stay in the trial and keep going in for blood draws. I feel a little guilty about getting the shot even though I participated. There's a lot of built up demand here in MI. Our study shots do not come out of the general pool but it still feels a little off. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

SIAP

Moderna developing booster shot for South Africa variant out of abundance of caution 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-developing-vaccine-booster-shot-against-virus-strain-first-identified-in-south-africa-11611581400

Moderna said its vaccine induced production of neutralizing antibodies against the strain first identified in the U.K., known as B.1.1.7, at levels comparable to prior variants. Yet neutralization decreased sharply in the case of the strain in South Africa, known as B.1.351, according to a paper posted on the preprint server bioRxiv. Researchers from both Moderna and the National Institutes of Health’s Vaccine Research Center conducted the analyses. The paper hasn’t yet gone through the standard peer-review process.

Even with the decrease, Moderna said, the vaccine-induced antibody response to the B.1.351 variant remained above levels deemed protective. The company said it expects its standard two-dose vaccine to guard against the emerging viral strains to date.

 

[HookEm 2467]

Does anybody know what the protection level vs. days since first shot looks like? I have heard up to 90% after 15 days. I would assume it isn’t linear. But I would also be surprised if it jumps from zero to 90% all on day 15.

[Neonmoon 38129]

33 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Does anybody know what the protection level vs. days since first shot looks like? I have heard up to 90% after 15 days. I would assume it isn’t linear. But I would also be surprised if it jumps from zero to 90% all on day 15.

You mean 90% after second shot right?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Surly Bevo 25047]

Found this on the NIH website

Investigators observed 236 cases of symptomatic COVID-19 among participants at least 14 days after they received their first shot, with 225 cases in the placebo group and 11 cases in the group receiving mRNA-1273.

30,420 volunteers.  That said doesn't seem like the 4 weeks between doses affords a real good chance for observation as none of these trials contemplated just sticking vaccinated people in rooms amongst Covid infected people and I'm sure you had a lot of varying levels of precaution taking amongst trial participants.  Still on the surface...not bad, not bad at all.

[HookEm 2467]

You mean 90% after second shot right?
 

No I mean after the first shot. I have seen “up to” 89% effective and then the 2nd shot getting you to 95%+.

Israel claimed only 30% effective after first shot but people suspect that includes people who were infected in the first 10 days when they aren’t protected much at all.

[Anastasis 23475]

More from Israel...

Israel’s Early Vaccine Data Offers Hope

Initial studies show a significant drop in infections and hospitalizations after just one dose, and very few cases after two. Experts caution that the results are preliminary.

 

JERUSALEM — Israel, which leads the world in vaccinating its population against the coronavirus, has produced some encouraging news: Early results show a significant drop in infection after just one shot of a two-dose vaccine, and better than expected results after both doses.

Public health experts caution that the data, based on the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, is preliminary and has not been subjected to clinical trials. Even so, Dr. Anat Ekka Zohar, vice president of Maccabi Health Services, one of the Israeli health maintenance organizations that released the data, called it “very encouraging.”

In the first early report, Clalit, Israel’s largest health fund, compared 200,000 people aged 60 or over who received a first dose of the vaccine to a matched group of 200,000 who had not been vaccinated yet. It said that 14 to 18 days after their shots, the partially vaccinated patients were 33 percent less likely to be infected.

At about the same time, Maccabi’s research arm said it had found an even larger drop in infections after just one dose: a decrease of about 60 percent, 13 to 21 days after the first shot, in the first 430,000 people to receive it.

Maccabi did not specify an age group or whether it had compared the data with a matched, non-vaccinated cohort.

Spoiler

The ministry found that out of 428,000 Israelis who had received their second doses, a week later only 63, or 0.014 percent, had contracted the virus. Similarly, the Maccabi data showed that more than a week after having received the second dose, only 20 out of roughly 128,600 people, about 0.01 percent, had contracted the virus.

In clinical trials the Pfizer vaccine proved 95 percent effective after two doses in preventing coronavirus infection in people without evidence of previous infection. The Israeli results, if they hold up, suggest the efficacy could be even higher, though rigorous comparisons to unvaccinated people have not yet been published.

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“This is very encouraging data,” Dr. Zohar said. “We will monitor these patients closely in order to examine if they continue to suffer from mild symptoms only and do not develop complications as a result of the virus.”

Both Clalit and Maccabi warned that their findings were preliminary and said they would soon be followed by more in-depth statistical analysis in peer-reviewed scientific publications.

Israel, where more than 40 percent of the population has already received a first dose of the vaccine, has become something of an international test case for vaccination efficacy.

With its small population, highly digitized universal health system, and rapid, military-assisted vaccine rollout, Israel’s real-world data provides a useful supplement to clinical trials for researchers, pharmaceutical companies and policymakers.

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Israel made a deal with Pfizer in which the drug company ensured the country an early and steady supply of vaccines in exchange for data. The Health Ministry has made public a redacted version of the agreement.

Despite its race to vaccinate, Israel is suffering a devastating third wave of the coronavirus. The government reimposed a strict national lockdown this month after weeks of soaring infections and deaths.

Israel was set to halt most air travel in and out of the country starting at midnight on Monday in an effort to block the arrival of emerging virus variants that could threaten the country’s vaccination campaign. Two vaccine makers said Monday that their vaccines were slightly less effective against one of the new variants.

Image
The deserted departure hall at Ben Gurion International Airport on Monday. Israel remains under a strict lockdown and was set to halt most air travel in and out of the country starting at midnight on Monday.
The deserted departure hall at Ben Gurion International Airport on Monday. Israel remains under a strict lockdown and was set to halt most air travel in and out of the country starting at midnight on Monday.Credit...Abir Sultan/EPA, via Shutterstock
While real-world data like that from Israel is useful, it is subject to variables that can skew the results and which clinical trials try to account for.

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The early Israeli numbers are based on the first people to get the vaccine. Such people, experts say, are likely to be more concerned or informed about the virus and therefore more careful about social distancing and mask wearing. They could also differ from those who did not rush to get the shot by location and socio-economic status.

Also, experts say, the disease changes over time. Prof. Ran Balicer, the chief innovation officer at Clalit and a leading Israeli epidemiologist, said that two-week-old data can be like evidence from a different era or “about a million vaccines ago in Israeli terms.”

Maccabi said that it would release more data weekly. “The main message,” Maccabi said in a statement, is that even the first dose of the vaccine “is effective and reduces morbidity and lowers hospitalizations by many tens of percent.”

A hazard of releasing raw data, experts cautioned, is that it can be misinterpreted.

After Clalit first publicized its early numbers two weeks ago, many people heard about a 33 percent drop in cases, not the expected 95 percent, and jumped to the erroneous conclusion that the Pfizer shot didn’t work.

There was an uproar in Britain, where the authorities have delayed giving the second dose by up to 12 weeks, as opposed to the 21-day gap on which Pfizer based its trials.

Professor Balicer thought of the results as good news and was dismayed at how they were interpreted.

“We were reassured enough to tell everyone that we were seeing what we were supposed to be seeing right after Day 14,” he said. “I don’t know how it turned into a message of ‘Oh my God, it doesn’t work.’”

Image
A health worker administering a dose of the Pfizer-BioNtech coronavirus vaccine last week at a stadium in Netanya, Israel.
A health worker administering a dose of the Pfizer-BioNtech coronavirus vaccine last week at a stadium in Netanya, Israel.Credit...Jack Guez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Professor Balicer, who is also the chairman of the team of experts advising the Israeli government on its Covid-19 response, hoped the positive results might have a bearing on an imminent government decision regarding a third lockdown.

“Covid has turned us all into amateur scientists,” said Talya Miron-Shatz, an associate professor and expert in medical decision-making at Ono Academic College in central Israel. “We are all looking at data, but most people are not scientists.”

Israel, which began vaccinating people on Dec. 20, has given a first shot to more than 2.6 million Israelis and both shots to more than a million people.

After starting with people aged 60 and above, health care workers and others at high risk, Israel is now offering vaccines to people over 40 and to high school students aged 16 to 18 to allow them to get back to school. The military is assisting the effort and 700 army reserve medics are helping at vaccination centers.

Prof. Jonathan Halevy, the president of Shaare Zedek Medical Center in Jerusalem, had not studied the findings of the H.M.O.s but said that two weeks after the first dose was rolled out he began seeing a drop in severe cases.

“I know several people who became infected close to the time they got the vaccine, but they got it lightly,” he said.

Still, Israel remains under a national lockdown and officials are concerned about the emergence of new, highly contagious variants. It remains to be seen how effective the vaccines are against the new variants.

Despite what appears to be the early success of the vaccine, the virus continues to wreak havoc in Israel. Professor Halevy said his hospital’s Covid wards were still packed to capacity and he expected that it would take another two or three weeks to see a decline.

The virus has killed more than 1,000 Israelis so far this month alone, nearly a quarter of those who have died from the pandemic virus overall.

Health officials and experts have attributed much of the recent increase in infection to the fast-spreading variant first detected in Britain.

[/spoiler]

 

 

Edited January 26, 2021 by Anastasis

[midtown 3346]

8 hours ago, HookEm said:

Does anybody know what the protection level vs. days since first shot looks like? I have heard up to 90% after 15 days. I would assume it isn’t linear. But I would also be surprised if it jumps from zero to 90% all on day 15.

I still think everyone is looking at this wrong.  These percentages are not what level of protection each person has after each shot.  They are the percentage of people that build immunities after each shot.   You may get both and have ZERO protection.  That's the 4%.   After the first shot you might be one of the 50% who have ZERO protection.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

23 minutes ago, midtown said:

I still think everyone is looking at this wrong.  These percentages are not what level of protection each person has after each shot.  They are the percentage of people that build immunities after each shot.   You may get both and have ZERO protection.  That's the 4%.   After the first shot you might be one of the 50% who have ZERO protection.

Yeah, I look at it as odds.  “How likely is it that I am done and protected after shot 1?” seems like the better way to frame it. 
 

Not that “How thick is my armor” isn’t a good question but I feel like from the discussion from the S. African strain the analysis is no more detailed than “enough” or “not.”  It may not make sense to think of it in “how many bullets will I survive” terms.  

[B00M 6416]

14 hours ago, elfenix said:

not just pandemics but think about all the other things you can program with mRNA.  this shit might be the biggest advancement to human health since indoor plumbing. 

Plague starting in the 1350s arguably advanced European society a couple hundred years by ending feudalism... Perhaps we embrace mRNA treatments and get long term WFH. 

[SubliminalHorn 6806]

Took the advice (can’t remember who and don’t feel like looking back) and called HEB this morning since I hadn’t received a text to actually schedule my second dose. The man went ahead and sent me the link right then and I am now scheduled for Tuesday morning. Almost there. 

[pearlandhorn 3274]

Question for the docs in this thread: I currently have Covid. I know I shouldn’t be concerned with getting the vaccine now but should I take it eventually or am I good? I know the risk of reinfection is very low. My wife, who has it as well, thinks that we should still get vaccinated whenever we can. Just trying to see if there’s any research done on if the vaccine provides any benefit to people who have already had Covid. Seems like the body made antibodies are better than the antibodies created via vaccine. Is this correct or am I off?

[kevwun 15797]

I believe you are supposed to wait 90 days after you've recovered, but you should still get vaccinated.

[midtown 3346]

7 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

Question for the docs in this thread: I currently have Covid. I know I shouldn’t be concerned with getting the vaccine now but should I take it eventually or am I good? I know the risk of reinfection is very low. My wife, who has it as well, thinks that we should still get vaccinated whenever we can. Just trying to see if there’s any research done on if the vaccine provides any benefit to people who have already had Covid. Seems like the body made antibodies are better than the antibodies created via vaccine. Is this correct or am I off?

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

12 hours ago, Baboontyme said:

I feel a little guilty about getting the shot even though I participated

Don't. You helped in the development and should get rewarded for it. Thanks for your service!

[kevwun 15797]

Yeah, you did your part and earned your shot.

[BigDHornfan 6549]

15 hours ago, elfenix said:

work work work, hello boys, I missed you!

 

[HookEm 2467]

I still think everyone is looking at this wrong.  These percentages are not what level of protection each person has after each shot.  They are the percentage of people that build immunities after each shot.   You may get both and have ZERO protection.  That's the 4%.   After the first shot you might be one of the 50% who have ZERO protection.

Fine but it still doesn’t answer the question. After 1 day what percent of the population is immune? What about after 5 days? What about after 15 days?

My guess is that after 1 day you see zero difference in infection rates. What about after 3 days?

[kevwun 15797]

From what I have read, 10-14 days after the 1st shot is when you start to have some protection from infection.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Interesting academic discussion, but I haven't acted any different after my vaccine shots, and now I'm almost 2.5 weeks removed from my second Pfizer shot. I'm even joined the double-bag mask club lately especially after I realized that it wasn't any less comfortable wearing 2 masks as opposed to 1.

[gmr548 16580]

 

I understand there’s a degree of uncertainty with things like asymptotic transmission and new variants, and we have to process with some caution appropriately. And that there are rollout issues we’re all focused on. But in ten years we’re going to come to see this as these vaccines as the absolutely miraculous feat that they are.

[XYZ 2154]

Apparently they are not vaccines at all.

Edit: or maybe it is a fucking vaccine.

Edited January 26, 2021 by XYZ

[SubliminalHorn 6806]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

From what I have read, 10-14 days after the 1st shot is when you start to have some protection from infection.

This is what I have read as well. And the article said that even after 14 days, it still isn’t that high. 

[babysdaddy 2725]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

Here is the new england journal of medicine on the pfizer vax.  Looks like to me around day 12/13/14 the amount infections in the vaccinated group slow dramatically.  It also has efficacy data in the study post 1 shot shows efficacy of 82% or 52%  A little confused on two lines in the study. It has two lines and one says 'after dose 1', and the other says 'after dose 1 to before dose 2'

[Texas Jeff 1945]

Sometime today, the number of people in Travis Co that have received their first dose will exceed the number of people in Travis Co that have had a confirmed case of COVID.

[dcar00 14266]

18 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Sometime today, the number of people in Travis Co that have received their first dose will exceed the number of people in Travis Co that have had a confirmed case of COVID.

good news.  I really wish they would have prioritized by age only maybe even 75+ and front line hospital, EMT folks but I expect the rollout to get better by the day.