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Texas Jeff

By Texas Jeff
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Dontshootrude
Dontshootrude

Reading the last couple pages of this thread, I can't help but jump in here.  I'm a molecular biologist.  I'm happy to verify with the mods, just PM me so I don't dox myself.  I have not read most of

EE2B
EE2B

This was posted by an ER doc from a local hospital: I have been mostly silent on the COVID surge but I feel it’s a duty and responsibility for healthcare professionals to report what we are seeing an

Somnio
Somnio

You're a fascist who wishes death and suffering upon people.  You're why genocide has happened throughout history.  I've seen your vile posts before.  You need help.  Seriously, I'll swallow my pride

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3379

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, dcbc said:

If you have your own office and, generally, can avoid people, you'll be fine.  Mask up outside of your office and don't sweat it too much.  I've been back in the office since last June.  Similar situation.  Could be remote easily, but run by [cough, cough].

I put a Keurig and refrigerator in my office so I don’t have to leave. The peeing in plastic bags is a little gross but I hide them in the corner. 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 28223

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, dcar00 said:

looks like Japan is team horse paste...

Link? There is a clinical trial that closes in September and is expected to release results next year

 

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04703205

This is how it should be done

or do you have something else?

 

And no one in the medical community would think it’s anything but awesome if it shows to be effective 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

I put a Keurig and refrigerator in my office so I don’t have to leave. The peeing in plastic bags is a little gross but I hide them in the corner. 

4 hours ago, Captainant said:

Now you have a thing to keep people away too

Wait, you aren't pissing on the walls around your office to mark your territory?

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted (edited)

I feel like the unvaccinated posters whom voluntarily chose that path for themselves (not immuno-compromised) don't post here enough.  

I want you to know.  That as of church service today, I have begun praying that each and every single one of you does not bring this virus to my children.  Either through yourselves or your own children that mix and mingle with my children in schools. 

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8314

Posted
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8 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Link? There is a clinical trial that closes in September and is expected to release results next year

 

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04703205

This is how it should be done

or do you have something else?

 

And no one in the medical community would think it’s anything but awesome if it shows to be effective 

It's an investigator initiated trial.  Trials like these are what spawned the HCQ madness last year due to bias, the loudest of whom was that nutter French dude.  Not saying that will be the case here, but this is always a factor in these kinds of studies.

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1792

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1 hour ago, EE2B said:

I’m hearing that a 41 year old passed away today in one of my local hospitals. Apparently no pre-existing conditions. No idea on his vaccination status.

I know of a 39 year old dying at local hospital 3 days ago. Couple young kids left behind.....no vaccine

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dcbc

dcbc 14644

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

I know of a 39 year old dying at local hospital 3 days ago. Couple young kids left behind.....no vaccine

I mentioned upthread about knowing of a 38 year old, who got her cancer survivor mother to come take care of her when she first tested positive, who now is on a vent and the mom is in ICU too.  Neither was vaccinated of course.  Single mom.  Her 18 year old son is on death watch.  Half the people on her Facebook are trying to figure out a way to slip her some horse paste.  Sigh.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Once the vaccine became widely available, about ~6 months ago (give or take some logistical registrations), I'm curious how many children will be orphaned by idiotic parents.  

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 28223

Posted
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3 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

It's an investigator initiated trial.  Trials like these are what spawned the HCQ madness last year due to bias, the loudest of whom was that nutter French dude.  Not saying that will be the case here, but this is always a factor in these kinds of studies.

It’s prospective randomized blinded and placebo controlled if it shows benefit it is very unlikely to be due to error

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Pods

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Posted
Posted

 

13 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Israel remains the outlier. 

 

Unfortunately, the Mayo Clinic data for the US I posted recently matches the Israeli data. Indicates an effectiveness rate against infection of 42% for Pfizer and 76% for Moderna in their pre-print.  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v1

 

14 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

UK study shows Pfizer still 88% effective against Delta:

https://www.contagionlive.com/view/two-dose-covid-19-vaccines-remain-effective-versus-delta-variant

Man, I want to believe so badly, but that is ancient data. It only runs through May 16 and doesn't get any of the last three months. Peer review badly needs to move much faster during a pandemic. 

These numbers roughly match the vaccine effectiveness that Israel was reporting in mid-May, but Israel's effectiveness estimates began to fall sharply through June-July. Other UK data indicates effectiveness against infection has likely declined sharply in June and July, but all the vaccines are still protecting reasonably well against ICU visits and deaths. 

I don't think the Pfizer's effectiveness against infection is 88% in the UK against Delta currently. I would love to be wrong, but I don't think I am. 

Quote

 Data on all positive PCR tests between October 26, 2020, and May 16, 2021

 

I won't be surprised if Pfizer's effectiveness against infection is higher in the UK, than Israel, or here, because they predominantly gave it to their young population and gave AstraZeneca to their olds. They gave J&J/Janssen starting recently and Moderna in smaller amounts, but I don't know what that breakdown was. They also administered Pfizer on an extended dosing interval that may have given them a higher immune response. 

As to what's happening in the 3 months after that data, I can't get anything from Public Health England definitively. University College London (very good school) has been  running a nationwide blood sample survey and putting out papers and slides as a working group. They do not appear to send them off for peer review, but I am inclined to trust them. Your milage may vary. They only started reporting vaccine efficacy (VE) in July and don't break down by manufacturer, so the numbers below are for Pfizer and AstraZeneca, but it looks like VE is sliding in the UK over time. Fortunately for them, 90 something percent of them have antibodies from infection, or vaccine. If there is herd immunity for Delta, they are almost at the theoretical number. 

Quote

we estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) in round 12 of 64% (11%, 85%) and 49% (22%, 67%) in round 13.

Those numbers are an average of Pfizer, AstraZeneca and a small amount of Moderna. They don't report them broken out. 

Round 12- May 20-June 7 Vaccine Effectiveness = 64%

Round 13- June 24-July 12 Vaccine Effectiveness = 49%

Delta went from 60% prevalence to 90% prevalence during Round 12 and was 100% of cases during Round 13. 

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf

Rounds 12 and 13 also saw sharp increases in breakthrough infections. Round 12, fully vaccinated made up 29% of all infections and 44% of all infections during Round 13. The percent vaccinated was going up, so there are fewer non-vaccinated and that muddies it further. I can't draw firm conclusions, because the data is such a mess, but drop is not promising.

It's frustrating as hell that I have to jump from pre-print to pre-print, use Public Health England until mid-May and then hop over to UCL data to interpret this. It introduces unnecessary uncertainty and it would be a lot better if we got transparent and timely data. Public Health England has the data to answer this conclusively, but aren't posting it and are publishing data from May.  

I want to reiterate at the end of this long ass post, if you are vaccinated and not immune compromised, all available evidence says you have strong protection against ICU visits and deaths. The concern is reduced effectiveness against infection in real world conditions, especially of Pfizer over time.

My family is keeping our masks on until there is a better consensus.

I really, really, really hope I'm wrong. Cross your fingers, but keep your masks on for a bit longer. If you wind up wearing a mask for a few weeks extra for no reason, you can laugh about it later.

Sorry for the length of this post, but there is no clear answer, so I wanted to walk people through my thought process. 

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Pods

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Posted

That all seems like terrible news, but there is a lot of reason to be optimistic actually. If Pfizer's immunity wanes over time, that's an easy fix with an additional booster. The fact that Pfizer seemed to be doing really well everywhere until June would suggest it DOES a good job at preventing infections with Delta, IF the vaccination was recent and suggests a booster fixes the issue. 

The vaccines already do a great job preventing ICU visits and deaths and Israel is getting good results from their third booster shot.

Quote

“We have preliminary information on the effect of the third vaccine against infection. We estimate that this has halved the number of cases among the vaccinated"

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/covid-in-israel-over-500-patients-in-serious-condition-4145-new-cases-676745

 

 Israel has 525 patients in serious condition over the age of 60. 277 out of 404 are fully vaccinated, 68.6%. 127 are unvaccinated 31.4%.

Over 60 in Israel is 90% vaccinated. Unvaccinated people are 10% of the population and 32% of the severe cases, so we are seeing a clear reduction already, even for 2 doses, the booster should start cutting this down even more soon. 

Quote

As of Sunday, Israel had 525 patients in serious condition, 162 more than a week earlier. Of those, 404 are over 60, with 277 of them fully vaccinated. Considering the serious cases per 100,000 people over 60, there are 21 cases among the vaccinated – who are over 90% of the cohort – while among the unvaccinated it is 135.

At the peak of the pandemic in January, the country reached 1,200, severely straining the health system.

“Seventy-eight of the 79 Israelis who died last week, *did not* take all three required vaccinations,” Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Twitter. “In other words, the third vaccine is not a ‘luxury’ —it really saves lives.”

 

The FDA/CDC need to hurry the fuck up and authorize boosters for Pfizer shots to protect our older patients as well and we'll start seeing some light at the end of this tunnel. 

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

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13 minutes ago, Pods said:

That all seems like terrible news, but there is a lot of reason to be optimistic actually. If Pfizer's immunity wanes over time, that's an easy fix with an additional booster. The fact that Pfizer seemed to be doing really well everywhere until June would suggest it DOES a good job at preventing infections with Delta, IF the vaccination was recent and suggests a booster fixes the issue. 

The vaccines already do a great job preventing ICU visits and deaths and Israel is getting good results from their third booster shot.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/covid-in-israel-over-500-patients-in-serious-condition-4145-new-cases-676745

 

 Israel has 525 patients in serious condition over the age of 60. 277 out of 404 are fully vaccinated, 68.6%. 127 are unvaccinated 31.4%.

Over 60 in Israel is 90% vaccinated. Unvaccinated people are 10% of the population and 32% of the severe cases, so we are seeing a clear reduction already, even for 2 doses, the booster should start cutting this down even more soon. 

 

The FDA/CDC need to hurry the fuck up and authorize boosters for Pfizer shots to protect our older patients as well and we'll start seeing some light at the end of this tunnel. 

It seems to me that everyone is looking at Israel the wrong way.  They have 404 over 60 patients and a majority of them are vaxxed because such an overwhelming majority of the population over 60 is vaxxed.  If they were at 50% my guess is you’d still see just as many (or likely more) vaxxed patients.  You’d just see several thousand unvaxxed patients on top of that.  

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

It seems to me that everyone is looking at Israel the wrong way.  They have 404 over 60 patients and a majority of them are vaxxed because such an overwhelming majority of the population over 60 is vaxxed.  If they were at 50% my guess is you’d still see just as many (or likely more) vaxxed patients.  You’d just see several thousand unvaxxed patients on top of that.  

It's a mix of both good and bad news. The Israeli data is a wakeup call that the threat of breakthrough infections is real. The threat was much lower with Alpha, though there may be a time component there. I hope people on here started masking up quite some time ago. We've got the  Israeli data, along with Gibraltar, to thank for that warning. 

The original goal of the vaccines was stopping severe cases and deaths. They are still really good at that. The number of unvaccinated in the hospital is still over 3 times their rate in the population. The vaccines are even better against death.

Go back to 18 months ago. If you told everyone the vaccine would be 40 something percent against transmission in real world conditions, but prevent the vast majority of severe cases and even more of the deaths, everyone would be thrilled. 

It's only in the context of Pfizer once being over 95% against transmission with OG covid/Alpha and 88% in May against Delta, that this 40 something number is so depressing. The good news is, the booster seems to restore most of that and we've got an awful lot of unused shots sitting around right now, whenever the FDA and CDC get around to it. 

Edited by Pods
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23720

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Pods said:

It's frustrating as hell that I have to jump from pre-print to pre-print, use Public Health England until mid-May and then hop over to UCL data to interpret this. It introduces unnecessary uncertainty and it would be a lot better if we got transparent and timely data. Public Health England has the data to answer this conclusively, but aren't posting it and are publishing data from May.

There are so many factors in play here country to country as you have pointed out...delta prevalence over time, timing of vax campaigns and roll out strategy, different regimens, mixing and matching, dosing intervals, different case surveillance, etc.  Would maybe have been nice if the CDC didn't stop tracking breakthrough cases back in May.  We might have some actual data broadly relevant to the united states to contribute to the discussion. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106900

Posted
Posted

More breakthrough anecdotes: a good friend (JJ vaxed) is positive, as are his two kids (below vax age).  Thus far, he has mild symptoms, the kids have none.

And, one of my daughter's best friends has to quarantine because her roommate and roommate's boyfriend (both vaxxed, not sure which one) are positive.

Pretty damned sure I'm getting each of the kids a booster this weekend before they leave the country.  The boy is immunocompromised, legit.  The girl...fuck it, we'll say she is, I don't much care at this point.  The shots are there, might as well use them for good.

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20568

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

More breakthrough anecdotes: a good friend (JJ vaxed) is positive, as are his two kids (below vax age).  Thus far, he has mild symptoms, the kids have none.

And, one of my daughter's best friends has to quarantine because her roommate and roommate's boyfriend (both vaxxed, not sure which one) are positive.

Pretty damned sure I'm getting each of the kids a booster this weekend before they leave the country.  The boy is immunocompromised, legit.  The girl...fuck it, we'll say she is, I don't much care at this point.  The shots are there, might as well use them for good.

Is the booster a different shot or just the original?

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Orale

Orale 1178

Posted
Posted

I'm headed to Amsterdam Thursday to cycle around Europe a couple months. I got my second Pfizer shot 4 months ago. I'm debating whether to get a third booster shot before I leave. The local HEB has 800 available shots tomorrow, so I don't think I'd be taking a shot that would be otherwise going to someone lacking. Which I wouldn't be morally ok with.

I've been searching online but can't find anything suggesting it would be harmful to take a third shot prior to six months. The fact that they'd give it to immunocompromised folks at six months makes me think there's little risk in me a fairly healthy 40 year old getting it at 4 months. My concern is if I'm in Europe a few months and the efficacy of the first two doses declines, I'd be at risk and a risk to others. Any thoughts on getting an early booster?

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106900

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

More breakthrough anecdotes: a good friend (JJ vaxed) is positive, as are his two kids (below vax age).  Thus far, he has mild symptoms, the kids have none.

And, one of my daughter's best friends has to quarantine because her roommate and roommate's boyfriend (both vaxxed, not sure which one) are positive.

Pretty damned sure I'm getting each of the kids a booster this weekend before they leave the country.  The boy is immunocompromised, legit.  The girl...fuck it, we'll say she is, I don't much care at this point.  The shots are there, might as well use them for good.

Was trading texts with the wife about this -- got some pushback.  I think she is concerned about not actually following the "rules" (particularly sneaking the daughter in for another shot).  They ARE each just 3-4 months out from their second shot.....but that means they'll hit the 6 month mark while they are out of the country.  Got the "we can talk about this at home" text.

We'll see how this goes.  I'm okay if the wife and I wait a bit, but the kids are on the clock with departures starting in a week.

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utee94

utee94 16088

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Was trading texts with the wife about this -- got some pushback.  I think she is concerned about not actually following the "rules" (particularly sneaking the daughter in for another shot).  They ARE each just 3-4 months out from their second shot.....but that means they'll hit the 6 month mark while they are out of the country.  Got the "we can talk about this at home" text.

We'll see how this goes.  I'm okay if the wife and I wait a bit, but the kids are on the clock with departures starting in a week.

What does their doctor recommend?

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JesusSweatDuck

JesusSweatDuck 18113

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Was trading texts with the wife about this -- got some pushback.  I think she is concerned about not actually following the "rules" (particularly sneaking the daughter in for another shot).  They ARE each just 3-4 months out from their second shot.....but that means they'll hit the 6 month mark while they are out of the country.  Got the "we can talk about this at home" text.

We'll see how this goes.  I'm okay if the wife and I wait a bit, but the kids are on the clock with departures starting in a week.

Can you be my dad and send me out of the country for a couple months?

 

More serious note, use your instincts on this one. You're not going to find any hard data on boosters for that age/timing yet

Edited by JesusSweatDuck
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106900

Posted
Posted
Just now, JesusSweatDuck said:

Can you be my dad and send me out of the country for a couple months?

 

More serious note, use your instincts on this one. You're not going to find any hard data on boosters for that age/timing yet

Nope.  And as for what their docs say.....hell if I know.  Good luck getting an appointment these days, even telehealth.  The boy's doc was fine with him getting a vaccine early in the process because of his previous immunity issues.  The girl....she got her first shot literally on the way home from the airport when she landed back in the US in May.  She doesn't have immunity issues, really...but she's around dumbass college students who will be dumb and get COVID.

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dcbc

dcbc 14644

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Guidance seems mixed.  Because the drop off in effectiveness mostly seems tied to timing of either of the mRNA shots, it looks like a more recent booster of either is helpful.

Was reading last night.  Unfortunately can't find the article now.  But it said get the same brand of shot you got the first time for the booster or, if it's not available, you can get the other mRNA brand. 

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 15136

Posted
Posted
 
Those numbers are an average of Pfizer, AstraZeneca and a small amount of Moderna. They don't report them broken out. 
Round 12- May 20-June 7 Vaccine Effectiveness = 64%
Round 13- June 24-July 12 Vaccine Effectiveness = 49%
Delta went from 60% prevalence to 90% prevalence during Round 12 and was 100% of cases during Round 13. 
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf
Rounds 12 and 13 also saw sharp increases in breakthrough infections. Round 12, fully vaccinated made up 29% of all infections and 44% of all infections during Round 13. The percent vaccinated was going up, so there are fewer non-vaccinated and that muddies it further. I can't draw firm conclusions, because the data is such a mess, but drop is not promising.
It's frustrating as hell that I have to jump from pre-print to pre-print, use Public Health England until mid-May and then hop over to UCL data to interpret this. It introduces unnecessary uncertainty and it would be a lot better if we got transparent and timely data. Public Health England has the data to answer this conclusively, but aren't posting it and are publishing data from May.  
I want to reiterate at the end of this long ass post, if you are vaccinated and not immune compromised, all available evidence says you have strong protection against ICU visits and deaths. The concern is reduced effectiveness against infection in real world conditions, especially of Pfizer over time.
My family is keeping our masks on until there is a better consensus.
I really, really, really hope I'm wrong. Cross your fingers, but keep your masks on for a bit longer. If you wind up wearing a mask for a few weeks extra for no reason, you can laugh about it later.
Sorry for the length of this post, but there is no clear answer, so I wanted to walk people through my thought process. 

Just to clarify, that study says two-dose Pfizer is 88% effective against symptomatic infection, not infection.
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naija

naija 3064

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Posted
On 8/14/2021 at 12:46 PM, HiggyBaby said:

I see stories like this and have a hard time feeling any sympathy. Mostly just anger. They have a go fund me setup to help pay for their dumbassedness. If only there was a way to prevent this in the first place...

https://www.wbrz.com/news/husband-intubated-stuck-in-mexico-wife-trying-to-find-him-a-way-home/

so they tested positive and got on public transportation anyways...

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