COVID-19 vaccine discussion

[BradInATX 9208]

APH released a dashboard for vaccine coverage.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/fdfca9ad7bfa444dbb1ddbceb6c1a1b1

 

[dcar00 14157]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

So, just to be clear, these people are incompetent as fuck and can’t do anything right, totally fucked up the prioritization thing and publicly backed off, but are managing to go beyond simply prioritizing and are actively rerouting vaccine doses that would be second shots? And doing so without any sort of evidence or leaks or whatever?

That’s a take.

 

so just to be clear, there is no difference between the first dose and second dose.  they got doses but are deciding how many are first and how many are second.  should they be stopping first shots to complete second shots?

Edit: also you realize when they received their initial first shots they set up the Delco and called people on their(communitycare, etc) and didn't publicly say they had doses. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by dcar00

[yoladu 4090]

22 hours ago, NAVY said:

Was just walking my dog on campus to figure out parking for covid hub. 
 

This view never gets old. Also albino squirrel quickly spotted by law school 

no pic of George Washington's penis?

[BradInATX 9208]

I hadn't seen anyone actually walk this out on the intertrons, so I took 20 while I was eating lunch to mess with it. Based on known delivery promises, below is what we should expect to see over the next few months. By end of May we'll have 80% of the eligible population vaccinated,  or at least the supply to do so.

We know the polls show that about a quarter of people won't ever get it. Which means that by end of May, we're going to have more doses than willing hosts. This is subject to the companies actually hitting their targets. 

Basically, pending supply chain issues, almost everyone who wants the vaccine will have it by Memorial Day. And we're going to be awfully close to herd immunity by the end of March with 38% vaccinated and another ~20-30% with immunity from having had the virus. Summer 2021 is going to look a lot more like Summer 2019 than 2020.

 

I would list my assumptions but nobody gives a shit, you'll just have to take my word for it. It accounts for waste, ramp times, and delivered-to-administered ratios and all that.

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by BradInATX

[bschoolprof 6252]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

APH is the biggest clusterfuck operation I’ve seen so far 

no wai.  Not these guys.

[HookEm 2463]

I'm not hating on your

21 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I hadn't seen anyone actually walk this out on the intertrons, so I took 20 while I was eating lunch to mess with it. Based on known delivery promises, below is what we should expect to see over the next few months. By end of May we'll have 80% of the eligible population vaccinated,  or at least the supply to do so.

 

Nice chart and I agree with your premise, but we didn't have 9% "fully vaccinated" at the end of January.  Right now we are sitting at 2.74% of the population with two doses.  I think you mean adults with at least one shot.

I'm also hoping that in your quantities you accounted for the need to get two shots for pfizer and moderna.

[South Austin 52456]

28 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Basically, pending supply chain issues, almost everyone who wants the vaccine will have it by Memorial Day. And we're going to be awfully close to herd immunity by the end of March with 38% vaccinated and another ~20-30% with immunity from having had the virus. Summer 2021 is going to look a lot more like Summer 2019 than 2020.

Really hope this is the case. I’m going to Rosemary Beach the first week of June with two other families, and it’d be great if all of the adults are vaccinated by then. 

[BradInATX 9208]

17 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I'm not hating on your

Nice chart and I agree with your premise, but we didn't have 9% "fully vaccinated" at the end of January.  Right now we are sitting at 2.74% of the population with two doses.  I think you mean adults with at least one shot.

I'm also hoping that in your quantities you accounted for the need to get two shots for pfizer and moderna.

January is a proxy for everything through the end of this week. By EOW we should have 48 million shots or so (this is probably a lowball actually)

"Fully vaxxed" is going to be overrepresented a bit in the chart in the early months. The 100M number in March is probably closer to 70 million fully vaccinated and 60 million who have received one shot (for a total of 200M shots).  That will catch up as we get closer to April/May. But it actually means that we're going to be closer to herd immunity than that chart would indicate, since the first shots of Moderna/Pfizer give you strong immunity after a few weeks. 

Like I said, 20 minute deal. Big picture. There's not good enough data made public to really break it down to a "X number of first shots and Y second shots" level.

Edited February 8, 2021 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9208]

9 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Really hope this is the case. I’m going to Rosemary Beach the first week of June with two other families, and it’d be great if all of the adults are vaccinated by then. 

You'll be good

[Enchubben 5510]

24 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

January is a proxy for everything through the end of this week. By EOW we should have 48 million shots or so (this is probably a lowball actually)

"Fully vaxxed" is going to be overrepresented a bit in the chart in the early months. The 100M number in March is probably closer to 70 million fully vaccinated and 60 million who have received one shot (for a total of 200M shots).  That will catch up as we get closer to April/May. But it actually means that we're going to be closer to herd immunity than that chart would indicate, since the first shots of Moderna/Pfizer give you strong immunity after a few weeks. 

Like I said, 20 minute deal. Big picture. There's not good enough data made public to really break it down to a "X number of first shots and Y second shots" level.

You have put way more thought into this than I although maybe it is a question to the group; at what point do you think the mask requirements drop? Are you thinking around that same time frame of memorial day when 80% of the willing population has had a vaccine?  IMO that will finally be the trigger that things are returning to normal.

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

You have put way more thought into this than I although maybe it is a question to the group; at what point do you think the mask requirements drop? Are you thinking around that same time frame of memorial day when 80% of the willing population has had a vaccine?  IMO that will finally be the trigger that things are returning to normal.

Depends where you live. The question may more be "at what point will the mask mandates become useless because the population is going to refuse". In Texas? I'd guess by July 4th the mask mandates will be gone for just about everything except maybe healthcare and travel settings. 

Personally, once everyone has the opportunity to have received the vaccine (plus a few weeks to allow it to work) and hospitalization numbers are well within the "no risk of overwhelming the healthcare system" range, I won't be wearing a mask anymore, regardless of what the rule is. 

[Skipper 6128]

13 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

You have put way more thought into this than I although maybe it is a question to the group; at what point do you think the mask requirements drop? Are you thinking around that same time frame of memorial day when 80% of the willing population has had a vaccine?  IMO that will finally be the trigger that things are returning to normal.

I'm guessing around the time where anyone that wants a vaccine has had an opportunity to be fully vaccinated assuming a variant isn't causing big problems in the vaccinated population.  I mean probably a larger overlap between anti-vax and anti-mask so not sure who will still be supporting masks at that point. I wouldn't be surprised if masks remain required on planes etc. for a while longer considering the under 16 population won't be vaccinated.  My best guess is just in time for Memorial Day.  Abbot would probably consider that a big PR win if he could lift it before the holiday weekend.  Actually 5/23 is probably pretty optimistic from a vaccine perspective unless JNJ comes in strong in April or demand is even lower than anticipated in Texas, BUT if cases are way down I could still see Abbot lifting the statewide mandate early summer.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Skipper

[Bernard 879]

Cloak Room / Qanon / Illuminati / Chinese Mask Industry:

Masks are forever people. Didn't you get the memo? There will be a new strain we have to worry about by summer time. After that masks will be mandatory to save olds from the flu every winter. After that...

Bernard

[Guest Lobo]

to the deniers---Oh, so when they said it would magically disappear one day...they just meant this one particular strain?  

I'm resigned to the fact that every October/November, I'll get a flu shot and every April/May, I'll get my Covid booster shot.  And around and around we go.  

Time was, a man quietly demonstrated his desire not to get other people sick.  Now, it's a badge of honor to not give fuck one about infecting others.  

Unable to dance on your grave, and unable to dance.....I'll crawl.  

[Dbeasy 15042]

By summer it’s going to be an interesting scenario. The government will still be saying that everyone should wear masks to keep from spreading covid to those who haven’t been vaccinated. But many, or most of those, will be people that refused the vaccine. I see fireworks in our future. 

[midtown 3345]

Put me in the once everyone has a chance they should have a public auction style announcement about masks etc.  Going once, going twice, GONE

Covid will be around for the rest of our lives.  Just like the cold.  

[Neonmoon 38129]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I hadn't seen anyone actually walk this out on the intertrons, so I took 20 while I was eating lunch to mess with it. Based on known delivery promises, below is what we should expect to see over the next few months. By end of May we'll have 80% of the eligible population vaccinated, or at least the supply to do so.

I think I found the hitch in your sunshine. The problem hasn't been the supply but putting shots in arms last mile. 

[Anastasis 23463]

17 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I think I found the hitch in your sunshine. The problem hasn't been the supply but putting shots in arms last mile. 

We have a lot of untapped capacity for administration.  We haven't come close to engaging the pharmacy resources for administration.

 

The issue I see wrt to the mask and distancing guidelines is going to be the kids <16.  I think that we see data in 12-16 year old 3/4Q2021, and <12 not until 2022. 

[BradInATX 9208]

18 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I think I found the hitch in your sunshine. The problem hasn't been the supply but putting shots in arms last mile. 

I used an 80% number (80% allocated actually getting into arms). We are at about 78% administered vs. shipped and trending up. So I figured 80% is a good conservative number.

[BradInATX 9208]

51 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

By summer it’s going to be an interesting scenario. The government will still be saying that everyone should wear masks to keep from spreading covid to those who haven’t been vaccinated. But many, or most of those, will be people that refused the vaccine. I see fireworks in our future. 

I dunno. I don't think anyone is going to have a lot of tolerance for anti-vax types. One large section of the country has wanted to open up for a long time. The other large section of the country (NO POLITICS) is pretty anti-anti-vaxxer. I think most people will give a big bipartisan middle finger to the people who have had the opportunity to get the vaccine but won't.

[dcar00 14157]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I dunno. I don't think anyone is going to have a lot of tolerance for anti-vax types. One large section of the country has wanted to open up for a long time. The other large section of the country (NO POLITICS) is pretty anti-anti-vaxxer. I think most people will give a big bipartisan middle finger to the people who have had the opportunity to get the vaccine but won't.

exactly if its readily available its your own fault if you don't want it.

[Doc Reeves 6434]

46 minutes ago, midtown said:

Covid will be around for the rest of our lives.  Just like the cold.  

More like HIV

[Bernard 879]

New strategy...

I signed up for a free 7-day trail ($50/month later) at this service that monitors changes to webpages.

https://www.wachete.com/

I think I have it set to monitor the HEB vaccine scheduler webpage every five minutes. It's supposed to send an email and phone app notification whenever there is a change to the webpage.

Bernard

[Neonmoon 38129]

21 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

More like HIV

Funny enough, this mRNA technology has been in the works for a long time because of viruses like HIV. Moderna has a robust trial going right now in Africa for their HIV vaccine and should expect preliminary results this year. 

[Texas Jeff 1945]

10 hours ago, B00M said:

Are you saying 50% of seniors will have at least 1 shot by March 3? Or 50% will have both shots? Either way, thanks for doing the math.

50% of seniors will have at least 1 shot by March 3rd if the past 7 day rate holds until then.  Add 3-4 weeks for "both shots" dates.

[Armybrat 40824]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I dunno. I don't think anyone is going to have a lot of tolerance for anti-vax types. One large section of the country has wanted to open up for a long time. The other large section of the country (NO POLITICS) is pretty anti-anti-vaxxer. I think most people will give a big bipartisan middle finger to the people who have had the opportunity to get the vaccine but won't.

One of my sons was married to an ardent anti-vaxxer. As a result, their two boys were not given any vaccines when they were little. That may have changed in recent years, especially after their other grandpa died from the Covid last year. I don’t really know, as it has been something of a bone of contention in my family. 
But he did say they are going to get the Covid shots this year as soon as they are available for their groups.
If that actually happens, it will be a hallelujah moment for me & Mrs. Brat.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Armybrat

[texhorn 351]

FHS has been sending out emails within a week after first injection with designated 2nd shot appt times scheduled out appropriately according to when you got your first stick.  

2 weeks since my first poke at FHS. 3 family members also at 2 weeks from a FHS poke with no email regarding 2nd appointment. Not freaking out yet but the comments made today during the WilCo press briefing are saying this is normal.

[gmr548 16576]

so just to be clear, there is no difference between the first dose and second dose.  they got doses but are deciding how many are first and how many are second.  should they be stopping first shots to complete second shots?
Edit: also you realize when they received their initial first shots they set up the Delco and called people on their(communitycare, etc) and didn't publicly say they had doses. 

Lol Jfc. Yes I know they’re the same shot, everyone does. That’s completely irrelevant to why what you said is dumb as fuck. I shouldn’t have engaged a troll.

[gsoda3 3248]

2 weeks since my first poke at FHS. 3 family members also at 2 weeks from a FHS poke with no email regarding 2nd appointment. Not freaking out yet but the comments made today during the WilCo press briefing are saying this is normal.

What was the date of your first shot? I know this is anecdotal but my wife and I and a bunch of neighbors all went Jan 20 and 21 and we got our second appt confirm emails by the 25th.

[gmr548 16576]

I hadn't seen anyone actually walk this out on the intertrons, so I took 20 while I was eating lunch to mess with it. Based on known delivery promises, below is what we should expect to see over the next few months. By end of May we'll have 80% of the eligible population vaccinated,  or at least the supply to do so.

We know the polls show that about a quarter of people won't ever get it. Which means that by end of May, we're going to have more doses than willing hosts. This is subject to the companies actually hitting their targets. 
Basically, pending supply chain issues, almost everyone who wants the vaccine will have it by Memorial Day. And we're going to be awfully close to herd immunity by the end of March with 38% vaccinated and another ~20-30% with immunity from having had the virus. Summer 2021 is going to look a lot more like Summer 2019 than 2020.
 
I would list my assumptions but nobody gives a shit, you'll just have to take my word for it. It accounts for waste, ramp times, and delivered-to-administered ratios and all that.
 

I’m not sure we can assume that 20-30 percent of the population is good based on prior infection. With the SA variant becoming dominant there’s indication protection from prior infection isn’t very strong, though too soon to say definitively. Your projection might be more like an absolute best case scenario.

[Armybrat 40824]

19 minutes ago, texhorn said:

2 weeks since my first poke at FHS. 3 family members also at 2 weeks from a FHS poke with no email regarding 2nd appointment. Not freaking out yet but the comments made today during the WilCo press briefing are saying this is normal.

As mentioned in the AAS article yesterday, Williamson County is taking over the registration/waiting/notification list from the FHS.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I dunno. I don't think anyone is going to have a lot of tolerance for anti-vax types. One large section of the country has wanted to open up for a long time. The other large section of the country (NO POLITICS) is pretty anti-anti-vaxxer. I think most people will give a big bipartisan middle finger to the people who have had the opportunity to get the vaccine but won't.

I think anti-vaxxers are split pretty evenly between left and right.  It’s like a weird mix of granola hippy anti GMO types on the left and Christian fundies on the right who don’t vaccinate.  When you see which states have the lowest vaccination rates it’s a pretty decent mix of both sides.  Colorado is the lowest.  Washington is low.  As is Alabama and Idaho.  

[texhorn 351]

What was the date of your first shot? I know this is anecdotal but my wife and I and a bunch of neighbors all went Jan 20 and 21 and we got our second appt confirm emails by the 25th.

Jan 26

[texhorn 351]

As mentioned in the AAS article yesterday, Williamson County is taking over the registration/waiting/notification list from the FHS.

Wilco presser today said FHS will be reaching out for 2nd dose scheduling, not the county.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

I’m not sure we can assume that 20-30 percent of the population is good based on prior infection. With the SA variant becoming dominant there’s indication protection from prior infection isn’t very strong, though too soon to say definitively. Your projection might be more like an absolute best case scenario.

 

The 20-30 percent existing immunity isn't built into that chart. The chart is basically just saying "if Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J deliver their promised doses in the promised timelines, and we get 80% of those into arms, this is what it'll look like".  So it's not really a "best case" scenario but more of a "if everyone delivers as expected". There is still some upside, if we can get above 80% utilization. It also doesn't include the Novavax vaccine which could be here in late spring in big numbers. You're probably right in that we won't see quite that many in arms by end of May, but we won't be that far off. I'll stick to my guns - just about anyone that wants a shot will have access to one by Memorial Day. Especially in Texas where we're running ahead of the country, and will probably have a lower than average adoption rate.

 

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think anti-vaxxers are split pretty evenly between left and right.  It’s like a weird mix of granola hippy anti GMO types on the left and Christian fundies on the right who don’t vaccinate.  When you see which states have the lowest vaccination rates it’s a pretty decent mix of both sides.  Colorado is the lowest.  Washington is low.  As is Alabama and Idaho.  

Yeah, it definitely knows no party lines. There are a ton of them here in New Braunfels. And Austin is one of the worst large cities in the country for unvaccinated kids. But they're going to find themselves in the very small, unsympathetic minority pretty soon. All of us have given up a year mostly to help out the olds and the vulnerable. I'm not sacrificing a single day of normal life for anti-vax morons, and I don't think most normal people will either. Fuck em.

Edited February 9, 2021 by BradInATX

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Homercles 10205]

2 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

2 hours ago, texhorn said:

2 weeks since my first poke at FHS. 3 family members also at 2 weeks from a FHS poke with no email regarding 2nd appointment. Not freaking out yet but the comments made today during the WilCo press briefing are saying this is normal.

What was the date of your first shot? I know this is anecdotal but my wife and I and a bunch of neighbors all went Jan 20 and 21 and we got our second appt confirm emails by the 25th.

Same here.  Didn’t help that I just got a WilCo wait list email today.  The statement said 28-42 days for second shot so just going to give it a few weeks. 

[Armybrat 40824]

2 hours ago, texhorn said:

Wilco presser today said FHS will be reaching out for 2nd dose scheduling, not the county.

Things are moving fast!

[Radical Larry 28566]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

 

stay safe out there y’all  

 

[Guest Lobo]

says the Cleric who literally seems as if he's seriously addressing us with his left eye, while checking out the cock 'n balls of the boom operator to his right.  

Edited February 9, 2021 by Lobo

[midtown 3345]

As if you couldn't find 300 Christian priests that would say the same.  

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, I could.  But literally, look at his eyes.  He's not just thinking it, he's willing it.  And if you will it dude, it is no dream.  /theProphetWalter

What were we talking about?  Oh yeah, my mom is finally in the queue in Illinois.  Because of the bullshit propaganda my cousin (who is like a daughter to my mom) fed her for months about the vaccine...my mom got complacent and didn't register when/where she should have.  But after seeing enough people she knew die from this thing, she decided to finally take action.  Despite all her co-morbidities, she's still a few weeks away from getting it but at least in the system.  

If you're gonna avoid the vaccine, fine.  I respect your rights and we'll just have to work around you as a society just like we always have.  I get it.  I'm suspicious of anything this vast and widespread myself.  But please, for the love of Christ...shut the fuck up and let older folks make up their own minds.  Stop filling their heads with your own inadequacies.  It's not your decision to make.  Make it for yourselves, for your children, and espouse all you want on your fucking 8chan forums.  But just let people over 65 make up their own minds.  They came this far without your blubbering idiocracy, let 'em get another 10-20 years of a good run. This is sickening watching people try to live out their socio-political delusions through the lives of their parents/aunts/uncles/grandparents.  Just shut up and let smart people figure shit out.  We'll call you when we another space laser conspiracy or someshit.  

[Bernard 879]

Update: the website monitoring software works!!! I have an appointment for the Moderna vaccine at 11 AM tomorrow at the HEB Pharmacy in Seguin. 

The HEB website was changed about 10:15 AM for some slots in Cleburne. I was away from my phone. Gone in under 5 minutes.

The site changed again about 12:35 PM. I was there within 10 seconds of getting my notification (up to 5 minutes delayed). Said there were 18 slots open in Seguin. Clicked the link. GONE. Shit. Site changed back to no appointments 5 minutes later. Five minutes after that, Seguin opened up again with "a few slots remaining". This time: success. 

Bernard

[gmr548 16576]

[mention]BradInATX [/mention] - quoting being fucky on mobile.

Fair regarding that chart. I was on mobile so I couldn’t see it particularly well. Counting on J&J to deliver may be optimistic given their record of running behind. Maybe they’re shooting straight as fares their revised timelines though. Hope so. I’m also not sure what you mean by Texas running ahead of the country. We are barely top 50 among US states in percentage of population/per capita vaccinations. Do have some dipshit antivaxxers on the left and right that might help with supply issues, agreed.

[gmr548 16576]

If this is anything close to accurate, hoo boy.

Link to pretty long Twitter thread but tl;dr is this particular UC Santa Cruz infectious disease professor estimates Moderna vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic infection at 61 percent (that’s pulled from Modena trial information apparently) and reduces transmission by nearly 90 percent. Just a back of the napkin deal, not a full study, but far from definitive.

With some real reasons to be pessimistic from the newer variants this is a welcome add to the “hope” column. These mRNA vaccines are something man.

[Bevo 13569]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

If this is anything close to accurate, hoo boy.
 

 

Link to pretty long Twitter thread but tl;dr is this particular UC Santa Cruz infectious disease professor estimates Moderna vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic infection at 61 percent (that’s pulled from Modena trial information apparently) and reduces transmission by nearly 90 percent. Just a back of the napkin deal, not a full study, but far from definitive.

With some real reasons to be pessimistic from the newer variants this is a welcome add to the “hope” column. These mRNA vaccines are something man.

 

Santa Cruz doesn't even have a medical school. I would feel better if it came from Stanford. Plus, I know and trust those people.

[BradInATX 9208]

[mention]BradInATX [/mention] - quoting being fucky on mobile.

Fair regarding that chart. I was on mobile so I couldn’t see it particularly well. Counting on J&J to deliver may be optimistic given their record of running behind. Maybe they’re shooting straight as fares their revised timelines though. Hope so. I’m also not sure what you mean by Texas running ahead of the country. We are barely top 50 among US states in percentage of population/per capita vaccinations. Do have some dipshit antivaxxers on the left and right that might help with supply issues, agreed.

Definitely valid concerns, especially because each dose J&J misses will be a one person shortfall vs. Moderna and Pfizer being half a person short.

My math showed Texas slightly ahead of the national average for vaccines administered vs. adult population. We're also near the top of percentage of allocated actually in arms. Not necessarily one of the best, but we're doing alright.

[Guest Lobo]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

Santa Cruz doesn't even have a medical school. I would feel better if it came from Stanford. Plus, I know and trust those people.

Dude, Santa Cruz has the Grateful Dead archives.  They know what they're doing.  Trust 'em, they're pre-Med.  

[scottsins 1966]

Allegedly, CVS will have online appointments scheduling activated around midnight tonight for some of the area (Austin metro) locations. I fully expect this “launch” to have issues/delays because of the usual corporate bullshit.

ETA: CVS locations do not appear anywhere on the DSHS allocations for this week, so I’m skeptical.