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COVID-19 vaccine discussion

Texas Jeff

By Texas Jeff
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Kyle

Kyle 207

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15 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Got to normalize to person-time based exposure. Let's just assume 1 month average duration of follow-up person time which is probably an overestimate, so only about a 30% reduction vs. upper end of the background rate or a 3-fold increase from the low end estimate, back of the envelope math gets me to ~11 cases per 1MM person years of exposure to JNJ.  I am sure that the JNJ numbers are undercounts at the moment, but if you take them for what they are worth, I think that's the math. 

I had previously shared with a friend I was holding out for the J&J vaccine for a few different reasons and whether this changed my mind. My response is no because again it only affected women and still IIRC 0.00000087% rate. That being said, I was thinking about how to calculate my risk of catching rona today ... not sure how to think about the coefficient. The mortality rate is an easy calculation (if you do not adjust for risk factors, which is an assumption) but not sure I have the tools to adjust for risk of catching it - is it as simply as applying current, local infection rates? This number keeps declining, which of course is a good thing.

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Dontshootrude
Dontshootrude

Reading the last couple pages of this thread, I can't help but jump in here.  I'm a molecular biologist.  I'm happy to verify with the mods, just PM me so I don't dox myself.  I have not read most of

EE2B
EE2B

This was posted by an ER doc from a local hospital: I have been mostly silent on the COVID surge but I feel it’s a duty and responsibility for healthcare professionals to report what we are seeing an

Somnio
Somnio

You're a fascist who wishes death and suffering upon people.  You're why genocide has happened throughout history.  I've seen your vile posts before.  You need help.  Seriously, I'll swallow my pride

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utee94

utee94 15,722

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23 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Facebook is a nightmare right now. Damn, people, if the Gubmint wanted you dead, they'd have done it by now. Settle down, Cletus.

Exactly.  They don't want us dead, just docile and subservient.

Which is why these vaccines have some other agents in them, to chemically lobotomize all the stupid.... errr.... nevermind.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24,933

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Denmark halting the use of AZ over the clotting issues. Their plan was to replace it with J&J. Guess we might have a buyer

Denmark has ceased giving the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid vaccine amid concerns about rare cases of blood clots, the first European country to do so fully.
The move is expected to delay the country's vaccination programme by several weeks.
Drug watchdog the European Medicines Agency last week announced a possible link with clots but said the risk of dying of Covid-19 was much greater.
Several European countries had previously briefly suspended the jab.
Most have now resumed vaccinations with AstraZeneca, but often with limits to older age groups.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56744474

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103,657

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

CDC ACIP slides regarding JNJ here:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/slides-2021-04.html

One of their slides....if the total number @ 6.8MM is accurate, looks like 20% administered among women 20-50 years. 

Screenshot-2021-04-14-130135.jpg

 

Skimmed some of that.   Do I read right that, to the extent that there is a issue here, it has solely presented in women under 50?  Thus....the solution could be to amend the EUA and/or guidance (however that is done) to allow use of J&J for men, and women over 50?  Or something like that?

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Heme Doc

Heme Doc 417

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Skimmed some of that.   Do I read right that, to the extent that there is a issue here, it has solely presented in women under 50?  Thus....the solution could be to amend the EUA and/or guidance (however that is done) to allow use of J&J for men, and women over 50?  Or something like that?

I think that would be a very reasonable response to the data we have

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7,629

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2 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

So what's the plan for people approaching the 6 month mark post vaccination?  That's coming up in 60-90 days for a bunch of folks. A booster for the variants doesn't seem to be ready, so is the idea just to get the same shot(s) again at some point?

Pfizer and Moderna still have strong immune response at 6 month mark.  We don't have 9-12 month data yet, but you're still good at 6.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,215

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CDC ACIP discussion period going on now. The first few folks seem to be suggesting a continued total pause for 15-30 days to let the cases all shake out to refine the understanding of incidence and factors associated with risk. They don't seem supportive of more targeted age or sex specific restriction.   

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Viper

Viper 11,955

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22 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

CDC ACIP discussion period going on now. The first few folks seem to be suggesting a continued total pause for 15-30 days to let the cases all shake out to refine the understanding of incidence and factors associated with risk. They don't seem supportive of more targeted age or sex specific restriction.   

anyone of them do the calculations on how many deaths that could lead to? might not be that much if there's enough pfizer and moderna supply, but then it's hard to take into account public loss of trust in the J&J vaccine after a total shutdown.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24,933

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23 minutes ago, Viper said:

anyone of them do the calculations on how many deaths that could lead to? might not be that much if there's enough pfizer and moderna supply, but then it's hard to take into account public loss of trust in the J&J vaccine after a total shutdown.

Sell it to the EU. Danes killed the AZ use today and were counting on J&J to back fill. 

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3,922

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1 hour ago, midtown said:

I saw a chart about the chances of blood clots for different medicines, medical procedures.  And the JNJ issue was like comparing a house to a sky scraper with JNJ being the one story house.

Yeah, I’d still take it in a heartbeat. The whole thing seems like an overreaction to say the least.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,215

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10 hours ago, Kyle said:

I had previously shared with a friend I was holding out for the J&J vaccine for a few different reasons and whether this changed my mind. My response is no because again it only affected women and still IIRC 0.00000087% rate. That being said, I was thinking about how to calculate my risk of catching rona today ... not sure how to think about the coefficient. The mortality rate is an easy calculation (if you do not adjust for risk factors, which is an assumption) but not sure I have the tools to adjust for risk of catching it - is it as simply as applying current, local infection rates? This number keeps declining, which of course is a good thing.

I think looking at county level average cases per 100k (as reported by the NYT for example in their visualizations) is as good as any. 

That being said...get one of the mRNA shots and don't fuck around waiting for them to sort this JNJ stuff out.  Just line up and get the shot.  

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,215

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1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

The whole thing seems like an overreaction to say the least.

While I agree, they are boxed in.  I would have personally probably argued for a pause among women under 50 and continued rolling along in the rest of folks.  But given the amount of mRNA shots available, and some unanticipated ramp up of delivery from PFE I don't think that a 7-10 pause to let the data run out is that big of a deal.  I don't think that we will have a fundamentally different picture in 10 days from what we have now, but I don't think that it will be the end of the world. There is more at stake than just counting event rates here. 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 24,609

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Wonder if more people have died in a car accident on their way to get a JnJ shot than the 1 blood clot death. All you motherfucker who stopped driving for a year need to watch some Blood on The Highway or something. Folks sucked at driving before they really suck at it now.

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deac_tracy

deac_tracy 513

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I'm shocked that all the GOP governors have agreed to pause the J&J vaccine. You'd think this would be the perfect opportunity to play the "Big Government Sucks" card and keep on giving the J&J vaccine which would lead to increased moderate support. Especially surprised Desantis is pausing it even though he's largely ignored the CDC's mask and capacity recommendations, is a bonafide 2024 presidential candidate and he himself has received the J&J vaccine in March with no side effects.  I don't believe in the "Big Government Sucks" mantra at all but don't blame anyone for believing it after this disaster.

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,215

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23 minutes ago, deac_tracy said:

I'm shocked that all the GOP governors have agreed to pause the J&J vaccine. You'd think this would be the perfect opportunity to play the "Big Government Sucks" card and keep on giving the J&J vaccine which would lead to increased moderate support. Especially surprised Desantis is pausing it even though he's largely ignored the CDC's mask and capacity recommendations, is a bonafide 2024 presidential candidate and he himself has received the J&J vaccine in March with no side effects.  I don't believe in the "Big Government Sucks" mantra at all but don't blame anyone for believing it after this disaster.

 

No CR preemptive strike.  But I don't think that GOP governors are going to die on the hill of being pro-JNJ vaccine in the face of safety concerns. I mean they could, but it would go against all the polling of vax data that overlay political affiliation. 

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Deej

Deej 76,219

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My suggestion at work was to offer free food to all the fatties who refuse to get vaccinated, then shoot them with tranquilizer darts filled with vaccine as they rushed the kitchen. 

Edited by Deej
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Kyle

Kyle 207

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

While I agree, they are boxed in.  I would have personally probably argued for a pause among women under 50 and continued rolling along in the rest of folks.  But given the amount of mRNA shots available, and some unanticipated ramp up of delivery from PFE I don't think that a 7-10 pause to let the data run out is that big of a deal.  I don't think that we will have a fundamentally different picture in 10 days from what we have now, but I don't think that it will be the end of the world. There is more at stake than just counting event rates here. 

That would imply we had "experts" with an ounce on sense. I would agree with you except the one shot is a win - of course a smarter approach likely would have been doing one shot of the Moderna and Pfizer to as many as possible and then moving to shot #2 with an exception for the vulnerable populations.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,215

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Just now, Kyle said:

That would imply we had "experts" with an ounce on sense. I would agree with you except the one shot is a win - of course a smarter approach likely would have been doing one shot of the Moderna and Pfizer to as many as possible and then moving to shot #2 with an exception for the vulnerable populations.

Agree that an alternative dosing strategy should have been considered more seriously early on as it was in other countries.  But here is the deal, we have to operate within the framework of the policy decisions that have been made in this country. Get the fucking shot man. The mRNA vaccines are the truth and the future. The safety data (relatively short term as they are) are good. There are plenty of aspects of the vax strategy that I think we have whiffed on and we can monday morning quarterback, I am more than happy to engage in that, but the best thing that you can do for yourself and the people around you is to go get one of the shots that are available all over the place right now without getting twisted around the axle over it. There are all sorts of people that can't take the shots for extremely valid reasons. You help them by helping yourself. Win fucking win.   

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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3,659

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16 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

Pfizer and Moderna still have strong immune response at 6 month mark.  We don't have 9-12 month data yet, but you're still good at 6.

Right. So is the idea that we wait to see a decline in the pilot group and then just figure it out and implement in the 60-90 day interim? Or is there a plan already in place but it’s just not time for it to roll out yet?  That’s really what I was asking. 

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40,559

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12 hours ago, Deej said:

My suggestion at work was to offer free food to all the fatties who refuse to get vaccinated, then shoot them with tranquilizer darts filled with vaccine as they rushed the kitchen. 

If it’s Tillamook Oregon Strawberry ice cream, I’m in for a 3rd shot.

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Bevo

Bevo 13,440

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16 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

If it’s Tillamook Oregon Strawberry ice cream, I’m in for a 3rd shot.

I'm so pissed Sprouts discontinued their ice cream sandwiches after HEB did the same thing over a year ago. I have no idea where to find them now.

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7,629

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2 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Right. So is the idea that we wait to see a decline in the pilot group and then just figure it out and implement in the 60-90 day interim? Or is there a plan already in place but it’s just not time for it to roll out yet?  That’s really what I was asking. 

I don't know.  I'm sure a plan is being formulated but until we know how long initial immunity lasts, nobody knows.  It could be 9 months, it could be a lifetime.  We don't know yet.

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Jerry Callo

Jerry Callo 8,631

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On 4/13/2021 at 9:21 AM, kevwun said:

They're going to narrow it down to a subgroup of women who are at risk for clots and then exclude them from the JNJ vaccine.

That is an extremely small subgroup.  To get to the subgroup that makes up the 7 from 7 million, and with the risk of narrowing too far, they should start with the following criteria:  women that (1) put things back where they belong, (2) tell the end of the story first, (3) love to cook and are great at it, (4) never discern a tone from a man, (5) are beautiful and not crazy, (6) like sports and do not ask random questions while watching them, (7) drive and park like a pro, (8) happy to clean, but not in an nagging/OCD kind of way, and (9) appreciate the genius of Monty Python.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24,933

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Just saw this article. 

Pfizer CEO says third Covid vaccine dose likely needed within 12 months

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said Thursday people will “likely” need a booster dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.

He also said it’s possible people will need to get vaccinated against the virus annually.

“It is extremely important to suppress the pool of people that can be susceptible to the virus,” he told CNBC’s Bertha Coombs during an event with CVS Health. He added the vaccines will be an important tool in the fight against highly contagious variants.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/pfizer-ceo-says-third-covid-vaccine-dose-likely-needed-within-12-months.html

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