Markets still falling like whoa

[Tailgate 3022]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

could you provide a little bit of color on this jack bogle story

Not the best at cutting and pasting...this is from NY Times. Google him and you will fins many good articles and he’s written some good books on his simple philosophy to investing.

 

John C. Bogle became a pioneer of index funds for ordinary investors.CreditRyan Collerd for The New York Times

John C. Bogle became a pioneer of index funds for ordinary investors.CreditCreditRyan Collerd for The New York Times

• • John C. Bogle, who died on Wednesday, is widely seen as having changed how ordinary people invest their money. His firm, the Vanguard Group of Investment Companies, which grew to have $4.9 trillion under management, was built on a belief that, over the long term, most investment managers cannot outperform the broad stock market averages. 

“Jack Bogle made an impact on not only the entire investment industry, but more importantly, on the lives of countless individuals saving for their futures or their children’s futures,” Tim Buckley, Vanguard’s chief executive, said in a statement. 

Here are some of Mr. Bogle’s investment tips: 

1. Stay the course

“Wise investors won’t try to outsmart the market,” he says. “They’ll buy index funds for the long term, and they’ll diversify.” 

Long-term investors must hold stocks even though the market is risky, because they are still likely to produce better returns than the alternatives, Mr. Bogle said in 2012. 

Investors should weather any storms, he told The Wall Street Journal in 2016.

“If we’re going to have lower returns, well, the worst thing you can do is reach for more yield. You just have to save more.” 

2. Beware the experts 

Money managers missed all the warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis, Mr. Bogle noted: 

“How could so many highly skilled, highly paid securities analysts and researchers have failed to question the toxic-filled, leveraged balance sheets of Citigroup and other leading banks and investment banks?”

In 2017, he waved younger investors away from financial advisers and gave his approval to robo-advisers. 

“Unless you need a financial adviser to help you get started in that routine, you probably don't need a financial adviser at all,” he told CNBC. 

3. Keep costs down 

Vanguard’s fund shareholders own it collectively, so there is no parent company or private owner to siphon profit, allowing the firm to keep costs down. 

“In investing, you get what you don’t pay for. Costs matter. So intelligent investors will use low-cost index funds to build a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, and they will stay the course. And they won’t be foolish enough to think that they can consistently outsmart the market.” 

Mr. Bogle became a harsh critic in his later years of the mutual fund industry and the high fees charged to investors for stock-picking expertise. 

4. Don’t get emotional 

Invest in a diverse selection of stocks and bonds, trust in the arithmetic and stick to it — this was the essence of Mr. Bogle’s advice for Vanguard investors. “Impulse is your enemy,” was one of the mantras. 

“Eliminate emotion from your investment program. Have rational expectations for future returns and avoid changing those expectations in response to the ephemeral noise coming from Wall Street.” 

5. Own the entire stock market 

Mr. Bogle was the leading proponent of structuring an investment portfolio to mirror the performance of a market yardstick, like the S&P 500 stock index. 

“The S&P 500 is a great proxy,” Mr. Bogle told The Wall Street Journallast year, adding that he hadn’t bought an individual stock in about 25 years.

[52-80 19161]

That's so much color

[Fudge Nuggets 19194]

SLB up 8% after earnings yesterday.  It won’t get there in a straight line, but I feel $75 is pretty easy target with a high expectation north of $80.  $65 or so seems like a no brained in the not so distant future which is 45% from yesterday’s close.

[shigginz 5]

11 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

SLB up 8% after earnings yesterday.  It won’t get there in a straight line, but I feel $75 is pretty easy target with a high expectation north of $80.  $65 or so seems like a no brained in the not so distant future which is 45% from yesterday’s close.

Holy crap that is an optimistic take.

[Firemans4Horn 18055]

On 12/21/2018 at 11:55 AM, Firemans4Horn said:

 Now

Missed the bottom by one day. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

So Bogle approves my UPRO strategy.  RIP Boss. 

 

[TwiceHorn 31488]

I had the benefit of watching my parents, who were maniac savers, in their retirement.  They had lightly managed, low cost mutual funds.  Dad retired in 1986.  They weathered the late 80s recession, middling markets in the 90s, the dotcom crash, and the mortgage crisis, each time "staying the course."  And each time their portfolio recovered nicely and continued to grow.  And, they remained, by most estimates, somewhat overexposed to equities.  They had shifted some to fixed income type things and my Mom liked CDs, but at least half their portfolio was always in the low-cost mutual funds.

So they were basically Bogleheads without ever hearing of Jack Bogle.

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

WMT down 4% this week.  Wall Street is finally realizing how bad of a deal Flipkart is.  Both WMT and AMZN had to pull over a third of their assortment from their sites today.  

This will be a millstone around their neck for a decade.

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2732]

Went to a dinner last night with some Blackrock guys. They couldn’t stress enough the importance of working out a mutually beneficial deal with China. They need it more than we do in both the short term and long term but their plan is to wait in hopes the election turns.

If that happens they are apparently betting the Democrats will not be as harsh as Trump in trade negotiations.

 

[Wally Fairway 5550]

Helios & Matheson was delisted, effective today - so y'all will have to start looking at the pink sheets to get you some HMNY.

Does anyone still buy a MoviePass?

[Sbbruin 21858]

OK, surly financial advisors- so my major investments are in two managed accounts, both in equities.  A growth fund with a fair amount of tech and other riskier stocks and a more standard equity fund made up of a lot of blue chips.  But I need to move a decent amount of cash to an investment(s) but want to limit my exposure to straight equities.  What are some low risk, low return investments that I can reasonable bank 4-5% annual returns with limited downside?

[Bozo_Casanova 26472]

 

[happyfunball 481]

Started de-risking my portfolio

[TexArcher 37818]

On 2/15/2019 at 12:13 PM, Sbbruin said:

OK, surly financial advisors- so my major investments are in two managed accounts, both in equities.  A growth fund with a fair amount of tech and other riskier stocks and a more standard equity fund made up of a lot of blue chips.  But I need to move a decent amount of cash to an investment(s) but want to limit my exposure to straight equities.  What are some low risk, low return investments that I can reasonable bank 4-5% annual returns with limited downside?

How liquid do you need this stack of money?

If you can live with a 5 to 7 year surrender charge, you can average 4% to 5% with zero risk in an index annuity.  And it's not the kind of annuity with a small annual payout for life; it's a cash balance.  For example, you get the S&P return (without dividends) capped at 7% with a floor of 0%  There's no charge unless you cash out within 7 years (declining CDSC).  Pretty simple.

If you need it more liquid with low risk, municipal bond funds are usually a good answer (average about 3.5% and it's tax-free, and they have a lower upfront cost than equities), but most bonds are running negative right now and that's only gonna get worse in the short term if the Fed hikes rates.  File that away for 2020 or 2021.

[tucker 238]

I say go all in!

Quote

Opinion: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, at the current pace, is on track to hit 30,000 in April

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-jones-industrial-average-at-the-current-pace-is-on-track-to-hit-30000-in-april-2019-02-20

[happyfunball 481]

GE hit $11.50 today. I am almost back to break even.

I still think it can run up to $20+ so holding on for the continued rally. Just wish I would have bought lower around $6 a share.

[happyfunball 481]

I’m predicting the market will hit previous highs

 

 

 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

And then?

[happyfunball 481]

And then?

Who knows, but I remember all the gloom of people exiting in December while I said to stay in.

When we hit highs again, I will continue to move out of equities. I already started that process given the recent 2 month rally.

[Bozo_Casanova 26472]

That reminds me of what JP Morgan said when asked what the stock market was going to do:
“It will fluctuate.”

[bernorange 8362]

3 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

And then?

 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

 

Yep, that’s the voice I typed in

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Who knows, but I remember all the gloom of people exiting in December while I said to stay in.

When we hit highs again, I will continue to move out of equities. I already started that process given the recent 2 month rally.

I went about 25% to cash on Friday

[52-80 19161]

How is Boeing going on such a tear.  Again.

 

And why is Snapchat at 10$.  Fuck them

[Goofyboy 3293]

How is Boeing going on such a tear.  Again.
 
And why is Snapchat at 10$.  Fuck them

Didn’t Trump just help them ink a deal with the Vietnamese?

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

I’m still in for next few months.  End of this year or early 2020 will move more to bonds etc

Still think companies numbers will continue to crush with gifts Trump gave.  Also, Trump has the economy and that’s it.  He will seal something w China and call it a win.  It will end the trade war but fix jackshit long term.  

[jimmyjazz 45963]

20 minutes ago, tjhooker said:

TWLO reached ATH.  Time for retracement.  Short from $119.

I don't follow that stock, but shorting here seems mighty aggressive.  Granted, today sucked -- opened at an all time high and then basically tanked 10% before recovering slightly, but it's still above the 20 day SMA.  Good luck.

[ztejas 43457]

On 2/28/2019 at 4:07 PM, 52-80 said:

How is Boeing going on such a tear.  Again.

 

And why is Snapchat at 10$.  Fuck them

Boeing took a big hit today. Wonder if spacex speculation played into that. 

[ztejas 43457]

12 minutes ago, tjhooker said:

Looks purely technical to me.  It had a fairly parabolic run up.  It needs to retest some lower support.  Profit taking.  I haven't looked at it until now.  That looks also very shortable.  LOL thanks!  Going to break it down a little.  It does look like it will probably test 395 level.  Question is when?

I dont have any skin in the game - just think it's fun to speculate. SpaceX beat them to the ISS, who knows if that matters when it comes to their share price. 

[Wally Fairway 5550]

Posting comparative S&P returns by 1,5, 10, and 20 year period
(but primarily posting because I think it's a cool graphic)

[Anastasis 23474]

Aurora cannibas killing it in pre-market. Up 10%. CRON is my YTD front runner. 

[Anastasis 23474]

Over 15% now.  Sold half my shares, which means that it will be trading at $14 by the end of next week.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

17 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Posting comparative S&P returns by 1,5, 10, and 20 year period
(but primarily posting because I think it's a cool graphic)

UPRO long.  

[Girdwood 118]

S&P 500 posts best week since November.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-rise-more-than-100-points-as-stock-market-aims-for-best-weekly-run-in-a-month-2019-03-15

[Girdwood 118]

*Best week this year, now back to October/November levels.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

What a weird market.  Almost nobody confident but it keeps ticking up.  I’m still in pretty deep but another 15% and it will be hard not to back off a bit.  I guess I’ll worry about that ‘problem’ if/when we get there.  

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Yield curve inverting like woah

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Yield curve inverting like woah

Golden Cross etc.  Still tentative.  But as Buffett says, go hard when others are tentative, then when the sheep go hard, put away some profits.  So balls to the wall we go. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Yeah after the 10 yr - 3 mo inverts, there is an average of about 6 months of the market melting up.

[Sbbruin 21858]

On 1/30/2019 at 9:00 PM, TwiceHorn said:

I had the benefit of watching my parents, who were maniac savers, in their retirement.  They had lightly managed, low cost mutual funds.  Dad retired in 1986.  They weathered the late 80s recession, middling markets in the 90s, the dotcom crash, and the mortgage crisis, each time "staying the course."  And each time their portfolio recovered nicely and continued to grow.  And, they remained, by most estimates, somewhat overexposed to equities.  They had shifted some to fixed income type things and my Mom liked CDs, but at least half their portfolio was always in the low-cost mutual funds.

So they were basically Bogleheads without ever hearing of Jack Bogle.

I am at a point where I feel like I need to shift some of my money out of equities.  Other than savings, I have everything in equities and it makes me nervous.  Maybe at 52 I should just keep riding the wave.

[DaysOff 7951]

I'm 52 and have a Boglehead mindset for retirement investing. Let it ride Bruin.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

9 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

I'm 52 and have a Boglehead mindset for retirement investing. Let it ride Bruin.

 

12 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I am at a point where I feel like I need to shift some of my money out of equities.  Other than savings, I have everything in equities and it makes me nervous.  Maybe at 52 I should just keep riding the wave.

Team 52 checking in!

I'm letting it ride. I figure that even at 52, I have 30+ more years to invest. I can weather a few storms. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

I’ve got plenty in real estate and PE.  Advisors annoy me bc they have more in muni’s then I should at 40.  Then again all I need is after tax 5% but it’s hard not going after MOAR.  

[happyfunball 481]

Still 50%+ in equities. The Fed loose monetary policy (no more rate rises in 2019) is making my re-evaluate selling down. Going to ride equities out for a while longer.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

3 hours ago, happyfunball said:

Still 50%+ in equities. The Fed loose monetary policy (no more rate rises in 2019) is making my re-evaluate selling down. Going to ride equities out for a while longer.

Trump's big corporate tax gifts plus fed policy for 2019 points to a big year.  The one thing that could wreck it is Trump not getting  a deal done with China.  Being that the economy is all he has, I'm assuming it gets done.  Also any gains from that are built in.  So don't expect a big bump when it gets done, but if it doesn't watch the fuck out. 

[happyfunball 481]

Trump's big corporate tax gifts plus fed policy for 2019 points to a big year.  The one thing that could wreck it is Trump not getting  a deal done with China.  Being that the economy is all he has, I'm assuming it gets done.  Also any gains from that are built in.  So don't expect a big bump when it gets done, but if it doesn't watch the fuck out. 

I’m betting on Trump fucking up the economy. Being tough on China is a signature issue like Wall so he will go down in flames for it imo.

My early view was that a China deal would get done but now I am pessimistic that an agreement is reached. China is digging in plus tariffs won’t come off after enforcements which is a non-starter for China. In my view, US and China will start to decouple and are going to be adversaries economically so this is just the 1st inning of economic war fare.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

No way it’s a signature issue.  His base has no idea about the intracies of any deal or no deal

 

wall is a dipshit issue

Edited March 22, 2019 by ChiTownDoc

[Girdwood 118]

I’m 29 and 100% in equities. 

Not going to be checking my Vanguard account for a while when the inevitable collapse happens. Thank god for auto debit.

[happyfunball 481]

No way it’s a signature issue.  His base has no idea about the intracies of any deal or no deal
 
wall is a dipshit issue

/No-CR

Not saying it is logical but believe politics will result in bad decision negatively impacting the economy / market.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

10 hours ago, happyfunball said:

 

I’m betting on Trump fucking up the economy. Being tough on China is a signature issue like Wall so he will go down in flames for it imo.

My early view was that a China deal would get done but now I am pessimistic that an agreement is reached. China is digging in plus tariffs won’t come off after enforcements which is a non-starter for China. In my view, US and China will start to decouple and are going to be adversaries economically so this is just the 1st inning of economic war fare.

 

It will get done. Both sides will claim victory. Money will get shuffled around. Don't believe the hype.