Jump to content

Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 15.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

Posted Images

Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19407

Posted
Posted
On 3/22/2019 at 7:29 AM, Girdwood said:

I’m 29 and 100% in equities. 

Not going to be checking my Vanguard account for a while when the inevitable collapse happens. Thank god for auto debit.

That's what I did during the financial crisis.  Back then I got paper statements and they went straight into the drawer.  Didn't open any of them until 2013 or so and damn glad I didn't.  I have no doubt I would have panicked and sold at the bottom in early 2009.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23975

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Not shortable either, at least through Schwab. 

I like to limit exposure, so I stick to buying options. From my limited research, it appears that 5 days after IPO would be the minimum timeframe, so a week or two seems likely for a stock with this much attention.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26773

Posted
Posted
I like to limit exposure, so I stick to buying options. From my limited research, it appears that 5 days after IPO would be the minimum timeframe, so a week or two seems likely for a stock with this much attention.
 

Buying options is purely speculative. Selling them is actuarial. As long as I’m taking a position with no intrinsic value I’d rather get paid to do it.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23975

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:


Buying options is purely speculative. Selling them is actuarial. As long as I’m taking a position with no intrinsic value I’d rather get paid to do it.

Not interested in writing naked options on a stock like LYFT. I'll stick with straight speculation. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19407

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, 52-80 said:

I don't think I've ever made money with a short position

I’m no savvy investor, but some of my best quick returns were on short positions.  Years ago one of the major oilfield service companies came out a month before their earnings announcement and said they were going to miss estimates by a fair clip.  Stock tanked, but by the time the call came it was right back where it started.  

The consensus estimates were also back to pre-announcement levels so it was like they never told anyone they were going to miss.  I put on a short position day before the earnings call and made 20% in less than a week.  No, it’s not a huge win like most posters here get with their 400% gains in a day with options on triple-leveraged ETFs, but it was good enough for me and about as close to free money as the market will ever provide.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26773

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Blotto said:

Not interested in writing naked options on a stock like LYFT. I'll stick with straight speculation. 

Why would you go naked? You can contain your risk with a vertical spread and get paid to insure the risk of low probability events.  Options go on sale thursday. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...
Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
Posted
Just now, HRSchenker said:

I don't see how Lyft grows as a company so I'm staying far far away from that stock.

The ZOOM (ZM) ipo should be interesting.  That company is at least growing and making money.  I use it pretty frequently.  Pretty good segment on them at lunch on CNBC

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Blotto

Blotto 23975

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

I don't see how Lyft grows as a company so I'm staying far far away from that stock.

 

Saturday night I'm looking for a short ride home from the bar (2AM-ish) in North Central Austin. Check my phone Lyft $7.00, Uber is running some 30%off special so it was around $4.50. Select Uber and ride is there in 3 mins.

They will continue to hammer each other on price because the average consumer doesnt give a fuck which of those two ride share service picks them up. On the flip side, their drivers are constantly evaluating which app to turn on to make the most money at that time of day.

Since they are both so far away from profitability, they will tout growth as success, which will lead to continued discounting. Growth will continue, but until they figure out a drastically cheaper way to move someone from point A to point B, I suspect profitability is a long way off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tucker

tucker 238

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, babysdaddy said:

who did their underwriting on this?  Good day for them

Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, and Credit Suisse 

I know the MS and JP team. They are good. Both have a strong, tenured tech team.

Edited by tucker
Link to comment
Share on other sites
babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2731

Posted
Posted
Just now, tucker said:

Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, and Credit Suisse 

I know the MS and JP team. They are good. Both have a strong, tenured tech team.

I really don't think you can fault them for how it was priced and how the public markets actually react once it starts trading.  It's fucked up

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Dolemite said:

As soon as you get the feeling that you are going to be making or have made a "killing" in an investment, then that is your signal to sell.

Nobody ever went broke selling at a gain, maybe not all of a position but take some off the table.

Pigs get fat, hogs got slaughtered

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SDG

SDG 3335

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Dolemite said:

As soon as you get the feeling that you are going to be making or have made a "killing" in an investment, then that is your signal to sell.

Yep, I’m about to dump my SBUX stock I purchased at $52.78 last year; I’m waiting for the capital gains tax rate to go down by holding a year and a day. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, tucker said:

The S&P 500 Just Beat Its All-Time Closing High. Can It Stay There?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/sp-500-record-high-51556036336

Sign of the top?

I honestly don't think so.  Talking to a lot of small business owners, they're inundated right now.  Many had begun to scale back late last year due to the specter of recession.  However, they're now behind the 8-ball because things are going faster than they anticipated, and by a wide margin (like faster than early to mid last year).  

Any sort of deal with China will ramp that even further.  I think we have quite a bit to run, barring any Black Swan event.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sbbruin

Sbbruin 22082

Posted
Posted

I do think the Fed may revisit interest rate hikes, which may put the brakes on things.  But in my business (commercial RE), we have had the long sustained run of positive absorption in my my career.  The beauty is it has been slow and steady for years.  Things have always gone south following a rapid increase in rents and activity.  Developers overbuild in response, and the shoe drops.  Supply has been trickling in to the market, rather than flooding it, and that has helped sustain things.  And a lot of new developments have been swooped up by single tenants- tech and entertainment (Netflix, Google, Amazon, etc), so supply that really impacts vacancy has been really muted.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Texas Jeff

Texas Jeff 1998

Posted
Posted
On 4/16/2019 at 2:46 PM, Blotto said:

 

Saturday night I'm looking for a short ride home from the bar (2AM-ish) in North Central Austin. Check my phone Lyft $7.00, Uber is running some 30%off special so it was around $4.50. Select Uber and ride is there in 3 mins.

They will continue to hammer each other on price because the average consumer doesnt give a fuck which of those two ride share service picks them up. On the flip side, their drivers are constantly evaluating which app to turn on to make the most money at that time of day.

Since they are both so far away from profitability, they will tout growth as success, which will lead to continued discounting. Growth will continue, but until they figure out a drastically cheaper way to move someone from point A to point B, I suspect profitability is a long way off.

The endgame for Uber and Lyft is self-driving cars.  Cut out the cost of the driver and simply have fleets with the exact same car nationwide, maintained at a local depo.  Whoever does this well first wins.  I could see Waymo (google) or Amazon being the eventual winners.  Maybe there is room for about as many companies as we have rental car companies today, some more expensive with newer cars and some cheaper with older fleets.

I think you are correct that price will matter most, with quality of service next for those than can afford nicer stuff.  Citywide bus services will struggle to keep customers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...