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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

What's the hurry?  You'll be able to get it for less than $270 in a couple of weeks.

Stage it.  Put little more in all the way down if you can.  

Better than not getting anything in waiting for huge drop.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2725

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep.  It’s PE.  They have a lot less regulation. But Buffett has a lot of reasons to scare people away from PE.  

There are multiple types of PE.  The mega PE/VC world is fucked up.  Capital raising game and paper returns.  When a fund is said and done, usually 1 of the over 20 to 30 investments makes the returns for the entire deal.  And the returns are not what people expect.  Usually double that of public markets which can end up being anywhere from 15%-25% IRR, which is juiced by leverage.  When your first capital call is used to reduce a Fund's line of credit, your returns are being artificially inflated.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

There are multiple types of PE.  The mega PE/VC world is fucked up.  Capital raising game and paper returns.  When a fund is said and done, usually 1 of the over 20 to 30 investments makes the returns for the entire deal.  And the returns are not what people expect.  Usually double that of public markets which can end up being anywhere from 15%-25% IRR, which is juiced by leverage.  When your first capital call is used to reduce a Fund's line of credit, your returns are being artificially inflated.

I would agree there.  If you can get in 500M or so finds usually the ‘real’ returns are much better.  I’ve had good experiences so far in terms of what we got into.  But any area of investing that gets crowded and isn’t well regulated is ripe for abuse and that’s definitely going on in parts of this space.  I still like the diversification vs the overall market and real estate where I also have some plays.  

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4thgenhorn

4thgenhorn 38

Posted
Posted

Anyone going to try to sell today or tomorrow and perhaps buy back in lower?  I’ve never successfully done something like that, but curious if anyone out there is nimble enough. If so, what rules would you use. 

 

I was 5 min away from deploying my loose cash last week. Very thankful I did not. Soon I’ll be looking at one of:

 

AMZN

DIS

PAYPAL

or simply VTI and forget it. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

Anyone going to try to sell today or tomorrow and perhaps buy back in lower?  I’ve never successfully done something like that, but curious if anyone out there is nimble enough. If so, what rules would you use. 

 

I was 5 min away from deploying my loose cash last week. Very thankful I did not. Soon I’ll be looking at one of:

 

AMZN

DIS

PAYPAL

or simply VTI and forget it. 

Tread very lightly doing that.  I am holding and buying more if it drops another 3%.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45963

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Maybe im a dumbass but I’d be shocked if we don’t hit previous highs before the year is up.  Fundamentals still very strong.  

I see no reason to believe this is anything more than a reactionary pullback driven in large part by Trump's trade BS.

But, his trade BS is real.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I see no reason to believe this is anything more than a reactionary pullback driven in large part by Trump's trade BS.

But, his trade BS is real.

Guy has one chance to win and that’s a strong economy.  He will bend over for the Chinese if that’s what the money men want.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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Blotto

Blotto 23525

Posted
Posted

Right at the close of market last Friday, I bought some 45 UVXY calls expiring this week......and I still got my ass kicked today. Almost sold em, but I have a feeling the carnage continues for a couple more days. We"ll see.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26472

Posted
Posted
Right at the close of market last Friday, I bought some 45 UVXY calls expiring this week......and I still got my ass kicked today. Almost sold em, but I have a feeling the carnage continues for a couple more days. We"ll see.

“Got my ass kicked on UVXY” - everyone dabbler who ever touched UVXY
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hornbri

hornbri 1399

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, happyfunball said:

Bloomberg, “name one deal Trump has gotten done”

Keep losing your shirts.

Glad I’m all cash money

Well Tax reform got done..so if it is about money he does seem to try harder. 

I am not sure how long you have been all cash, but no one is losing their shirts. For example SPY based on the current price is still up 13% since the beginning of the year.

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HRSchenker

HRSchenker 2268

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, happyfunball said:

Bloomberg, “name one deal Trump has gotten done”

Keep losing your shirts.

Glad I’m all cash money

When did you stop buying stocks? When Trump got elected? VTI is up 40% since the crazy 2016 election. Prime money market is at less than 2.5%. You've lost a lot of money sitting on the sidelines.

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4thgenhorn

4thgenhorn 38

Posted
Posted
On 5/14/2019 at 4:54 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Highly doubt that.  

Went ahead and put some $ to work today in VTI. Given how poorly I typically time my buys, it will prob be down big tomorrow. So, I took one for the team to give you all a better cost.  You are welcome!

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 4thgenhorn said:

Went ahead and put some $ to work today in VTI. Given how poorly I typically time my buys, it will prob be down big tomorrow. So, I took one for the team to give you all a better cost.  You are welcome!

Ha, I've put plenty into play at what looks like the bottom - for now.  Unless we truly get a 3% or so drop on the S&P, I'm ok with my position.  But I definitely have the feeling one or two more rather shitty days are coming at some point.  But the fundamentals are still solid.  I'll keep telling myself that and firing away when we see these really bad days. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23525

Posted
Posted

Took a flyer on Ericsson at the open this morning, both shares and Jun&July calls. No telling how long Donald will have a hardon for Huawei, and without their equipment, the limited research I did last night indicates that leaves Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung as infrastructure suppliers, with Nokia slightly behind the curve.

Now I just need Donald to rattle his saber for a couple more weeks to give the options a quick pop.

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4thgenhorn

4thgenhorn 38

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, tucker said:

Anyone riding the Telsa penny stock?

Unfortunately yes. What’s interesting is how all the analysts in unison lowered price targets. If there is ever is price reversal based on all the negativity, then I guess that could be a sign of a bottom. Like today’s action. I’m probably too cowardly or too wise to double down though. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19195

Posted
Posted
On 5/22/2019 at 3:29 PM, Blotto said:

Took a flyer on Ericsson at the open this morning, both shares and Jun&July calls. No telling how long Donald will have a hardon for Huawei, and without their equipment, the limited research I did last night indicates that leaves Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung as infrastructure suppliers, with Nokia slightly behind the curve.

Now I just need Donald to rattle his saber for a couple more weeks to give the options a quick pop.

Buddy of mine recommended it to me back in late 2017 due to the upcoming 5G buildout.  I bought it in the 7's and 8's, haven't really watched it too closely.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15052

Posted
Posted
Took a flyer on Ericsson at the open this morning, both shares and Jun&July calls. No telling how long Donald will have a hardon for Huawei, and without their equipment, the limited research I did last night indicates that leaves Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung as infrastructure suppliers, with Nokia slightly behind the curve.
Now I just need Donald to rattle his saber for a couple more weeks to give the options a quick pop.

I’ve been out of that industry for a few years but last I was aware, Huawei had little to no US business because of the concerns over spying. Huawei has penetrated Europe and RoW deeply. The ones to really watch are Europe. If they start to pull back on Huawei then Ericsson and Nokia will benefit significantly. The US situation is likely already priced into Ericsson.
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Blotto

Blotto 23525

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, Dbeasy said:


I’ve been out of that industry for a few years but last I was aware, Huawei had little to no US business because of the concerns over spying. Huawei has penetrated Europe and RoW deeply. The ones to really watch are Europe. If they start to pull back on Huawei then Ericsson and Nokia will benefit significantly. The US situation is likely already priced into Ericsson.

That is a fair assessment from the sales standpoint, but Huawei is also dependent on many western companies for components in their equipment. If you search the googles for suppliers that have suspended shipments to Huawei, you will see quite a few. Just today, ARM (a UK company) suspended relations with Huawei. If Huawei can no longer license ARM technology or source key technology components, that will dramatically affect their ability to sell into all markets. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15052

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Blotto said:

That is a fair assessment from the sales standpoint, but Huawei is also dependent on many western companies for components in their equipment. If you search the googles for suppliers that have suspended shipments to Huawei, you will see quite a few. Just today, ARM (a UK company) suspended relations with Huawei. If Huawei can no longer license ARM technology or source key technology components, that will dramatically affect their ability to sell into all markets. 

Ah, got it. You're right. If they can't produce, even Europe and RoW will start buying from the others.  

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