Markets still falling like whoa

[jimmyjazz 45963]

6 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Well there’s the other few % point drop.  May unload another couple bullets this week.  Trade noise not going away anytime soon though...

Me on May 10:

Quote

I'd be looking at ~ SPY 278.

I'm thinking ~ 273 now.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Me on May 10:

I'm thinking ~ 273 now.

I'm still pushing more in, lol.  Take small uptick off the 278 on gains.  Also been buying UPRO on down 1.5% and taking little off top then getting back in...

But overall have not sold much since I came in for a bunch in January.  I'd say I'm still underweight after looking at OZ real estate, traditional real estate, PE, and bonds vs what I have in the market.  But I'm 40.  Zero fears even if we drop another several points.  If you have the bullets, plug away on the way down.  Has worked really well so far.  Maybe when I'm 60, I'll change, but I hope I don't need to worry about the market by then. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

38 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

The European Central Bank says US stocks are overpriced and they expect a pullback.  That won't help.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/05/02/is-the-stock-market-cheap

Good read on valuation vs where the market actually sits.  There's not much correlation.  So they can say that and there may be a pullback, but it usually isn't because overpriced correlates with a pullback. 

[Sbbruin 21858]

49 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2019/05/02/is-the-stock-market-cheap

Good read on valuation vs where the market actually sits.  There's not much correlation.  So they can say that and there may be a pullback, but it usually isn't because overpriced correlates with a pullback. 

You sound like some sorta 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

5 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

You sound like some sorta 

I tell the guys at GS when I want to make small plays.  I like to learn about this shit as a hobby.  But the vast majority of whatever the fuck I have is in their hands.  They have a good track record and I'm not dumb enough to think I can have my day job running a company and properly manage all this shit.  I do like it though.  More fun than betting on sports and win more often imo.  I enjoy buying on dips with 'my portion' of the funds and selling with small gains.  Have been able to do it fairly consistently - again luck has a lot do with it but if you put some in and don't see the pop, just add that to what you plan to keep invested long term.  

[Sbbruin 21858]

Yep, I have my money handled by a local outfit in Pasadena that has about a 50 year track record.  I pay 1.25% annually, and they handle this for me.  I have another account with RBC that I am probably going to flip over to my other group.  I could try to save the money and do it myself, but I sleep better knowing it is in the hands of someone who knows a shitload more than I do.  

[Incredulity 11675]

4 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Yep, I have my money handled by a local outfit in Pasadena that has about a 50 year track record.  I pay 1.25% annually, and they handle this for me.  I have another account with RBC that I am probably going to flip over to my other group.  I could try to save the money and do it myself, but I sleep better knowing it is in the hands of someone who knows a shitload more than I do.  

1.25% is sodomy.

They must kick some serious ass.

[Goofyboy 3293]

I’m at 1% yearly. I’m good with it.

[Sbbruin 21858]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

1.25% is sodomy.

They must kick some serious ass.

I've been pleased.  I don't want to put it in the hands of some Schwab flunky to save a few bucks.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

8 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I've been pleased.  I don't want to put it in the hands of some Schwab flunky to save a few bucks.

Depends how much you have too.  Someone really damn good will do it for 60 basis points if you've met their minimums.  Totally agree on not just picking the cheapest outfit though. 

[4thgenhorn 38]

I totally understand why some people let others do the investing. If it’s not your passion or you don’t have the time, then by all means go for it. 

 

I’ve always enjoyed it personally. Definitely find it more interesting than straight gambling or sports betting. I’ve done fine, no idea if I’ve outperformed over the long haul.  Probably could have made a career in WS if my path had been slightly different and I felt like leaving Texas. 

 

Anyways looking to buy more soon, like Friday’s pay day  

 

[Dolemite 143]

2830 or so on the es for next short.

[TexArcher 37856]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

1.25% is sodomy.

They must kick some serious ass.

There are a ton of clients paying 1.3% or 1.4% for managed money at a lot of the major firms.  My first advice to them is to stop doing that.     

[Incredulity 11675]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Depends how much you have too.  Someone really damn good will do it for 60 basis points if you've met their minimums.  Totally agree on not just picking the cheapest outfit though. 

They sure as fuck better beat the S&P for 1+%

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

They sure as fuck better beat the S&P for 1+%

If your manager is only doing equities you probably should just buy an index fund and do it on  your own.  Theoretically the help is combining with muni's...looking at your individual situation and seeing when to do what.  Also access to funds outside the traditional market...PE/Real Estate/HF at lower costs then if you tried to get into those same funds on your own etc. 

But I agree for a bread and butter investor who doesn't really do much of those other things just buy a S&P index fund and go long - everyone knows long term that is really hard to beat. 

Edit:  Also what perks do you get?  For managing a million dollars at one percent you can get at least one home for zero down around 4M and depending on your overall NW, possibly even the second home and at really competitive rates.  If anyone is a decent FA that million invested in the market vs your home should easily make up for that 1% fee.  If you don't trust that person - just tell them to put it all in a damn index fund of your choice.  Guaranteed they won't give a fuck as they're still getting whatever basis points to 'manage' your money and he/she knows you won't be calling them to bug.  Win/win. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by ChiTownDoc

[Incredulity 11675]

23 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

If your manager is only doing equities you probably should just buy an index fund and do it on  your own.  Theoretically the help is combining with muni's...looking at your individual situation and seeing when to do what.  Also access to funds outside the traditional market...PE/Real Estate/HF at lower costs then if you tried to get into those same funds on your own etc. 

But I agree for a bread and butter investor who doesn't really do much of those other things just buy a S&P index fund and go long - everyone knows long term that is really hard to beat. 

Edit:  Also what perks do you get?  For managing a million dollars at one percent you can get at least one home for zero down around 4M and depending on your overall NW, possibly even the second home and at really competitive rates.  If anyone is a decent FA that million invested in the market vs your home should easily make up for that 1% fee.  If you don't trust that person - just tell them to put it all in a damn index fund of your choice.  Guaranteed they won't give a fuck as they're still getting whatever basis points to 'manage' your money and he/she knows you won't be calling them to bug.  Win/win. 

Give me that last paragraph again?

[tucker 238]

Chi town seems like a permabull. 

If you only have $1m, you shouldn’t be paying anyone to manage your money. Do index funds. 

I’d say the value of paying someone falls between the $5m-$10m range as you can get real service and not totally get bent over on fees. 

I’m thinking to start buying again. I expect we are getting close to the bottom. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

7 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Give me that last paragraph again?

Banks will give you a zero down mortgage on a home if you have a certain minimum invested with them.  That 20% down you would have sunk into the home can gain nicely.  

Edit:  If you're a bear have them buy muni bonds.  lol  This isn't 'permabull' thinking.  

Second Edit:  Looked up what we pay for our main HF with GS.  Without them, I'd be paying this group 2/20%.  GS has them 1%.  

 

And to Tucker above, I won't argue with that.  Once you're at 5-10M it probably makes a lot more sense.  Once you're at 25M+ it's a no brainer.  At 100M or more I'm assuming you could put together an incredible family office - I think that's tough if you get much lower than that.  I guess one of us needs to get to 100M liquid and figure that out. 

Edited May 30, 2019 by ChiTownDoc

[troph 24810]

I’ll do the corporate deals for you PE portion of your family office, just call when ready.

[52-80 19162]

16 hours ago, troph said:

I’ll do the corporate deals for you PE portion of your family office, just call when ready.

I'll invest 50% of your 100M into an S&P index for a 1% fee.

[Incredulity 11675]

9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

I'll invest 50% of your 100M into an S&P index for a 1% fee.

but will you give him a zero down mortgage?

[Sbbruin 21858]

Depends how much you have too.  Someone really damn good will do it for 60 basis points if you've met their minimums.  Totally agree on not just picking the cheapest outfit though. 

Not gonna Rocko this with a paystub/portfolio comparison. Which I'm sure I would lose to you, doc.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

13 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

 

Not gonna Rocko this with a paystub/portfolio comparison. Which I'm sure I would lose to you, doc.

 

LOL, let's not go there.  But if you want some connections LMK.  No need to show me anything.  Just shoot me or Derka a PM. 

Otherwise if your guy doing well for that who cares - that's between you and him ...but I'll say you should ask him to knock 20 basis points off where you're at.  Doesn't hurt and I bet you get it. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

25 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

but will you give him a zero down mortgage?

I think that's a bigger deal when you're only at 1M or so and getting a house.  After you pass that, it's not how you pick a bank.  Hell GS min is 10M liquid...the very best places pick you, not always the other way around.  Ken Griffin and Citadel aren't taking your 10M no matter how hard you try to get in there. 

 

[Sbbruin 21858]

22 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

"I tell the guys at GS when I want to make small plays. "  followed by  "Hell GS min is 10M liquid"

Someone's big swinging dick is showing.  

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

17 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Someone's big swinging dick is showing.  

Nah there was plenty mentioned there I can’t get into also.  Lol. That post.  100M post. Goals.   Citadel is one. 100M liquid another.  There’s always another level my friend.  

[Storm the Field 5295]

Look out below, escalating tariffs on Mexico just announced by President Galaxy Brain.

 

[Goofyboy 3293]

How many years we still stuck with captain dumbass?

[swraith 347]

Sp500 futures only down 20 points. Clearly no big deal if Americans pay 5 to 25% more for our limes and avocados.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Will this fucking idiot stop winning so many trade wars?  JFC

[WBT 20586]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Will this fucking idiot stop winning so many trade wars?  JFC

It seems like he is determined to ruin the one thing that may have given him a chance to get reelected.  /end cr

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Can’t avoid discussing his stupidity if you’re talking markets falling.  So here we are...

So move this to CR if Mods want but the baby President’s tantrums are fair game to rip in this thread.  

Edited May 31, 2019 by ChiTownDoc

[Wally Fairway 5550]

7 hours ago, WBT said:

It seems like he is determined to ruin the one thing that may have given him a chance to get reelected.  /end cr

CR alert - pretty sure he thinks immigration and that wall are the #1 reelection issue; trade wars be damned. someone should remind the twitterPrez that this country staged a revolution related to taxes/tariffs that cause price increases to consumers....just say'in  /end cr

I will say that this tariff flare up though knocking down my stocks has shown value in the puts I bought as a hedge, so that's something .... I guess.

[Storm the Field 5295]

12 hours ago, swraith said:

Sp500 futures only down 20 points. Clearly no big deal if Americans pay 5 to 25% more for our limes and avocados.

and cars, computers, tractors,  medical equipment, appliances...etc.

Tomatoes, avocado,s and limes make up a whopping 2.0% of imports from Mexico. The lion's share consists of manufactured parts for vehicles and electronics.

[Trey3216 15346]

1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

and cars, computers, tractors,  medical equipment, appliances...etc.

Tomatoes, avocado,s and limes make up a whopping 2.0% of imports from Mexico. The lion's share consists of manufactured parts for vehicles and electronics.

[bernorange 8362]

I don't care what any of you heathens say - guacamole is serious business.

[WBT 20586]

Lucky for me, I already planted an avocado tree last month as a hedge

[swraith 347]

Lucky for me, I already planted an avocado tree last month as a hedge

Nothing like a natural hedge.

[Sbbruin 21858]

11 hours ago, WBT said:

It seems like he is determined to ruin the one thing that may have given him a chance to get reelected.  /end cr

Agreed.  If the economy falters as a result of his brain damage, the one pillar that he has to lean on crumbles.

[Wally Fairway 5550]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

Lucky for me, I already planted an avocado tree last month as a hedge

good luck - I've bought some frozen concentrated orange avacodo futures as a hedge, now I'm just waiting on Beeks to deliver the crop report

[woohorn 1131]

Can't wait for Chipotle to start warning me that guac is now "EXTRA extra".

[Trey3216 15346]

12 minutes ago, woohorn said:

Can't wait for Chipotle to start warning me that guac is now "EXTRA extra".

Right underneath the large font e.Coli  warning 

[jimmyjazz 45963]

Guacecoli

[Trey3216 15346]

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Guacecoli

Be making Guacecoli all night long 

[Wally Fairway 5550]

50 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Guacecoli

can I order that with a side of salmonella and a bowl of Blue Bell vanilla listeria for desert?

[Fudge Nuggets 19195]

4 hours ago, WBT said:

Lucky for me, I already planted an avocado tree last month as a hedge

Sometimes avocado plants will begin growing fruit after they're 3 or 4 years old, others take 15+ years to grow fruit, and some never do.

Hope you got plenty of dry powder to wait it out.

[Dertyberd 394]

Soy Bean Guac.  

Instant billionaire.  

[Sbbruin 21858]

20 minutes ago, Dertyberd said:

Soy Bean Guac.  

Instant billionaire.  

Navin's Dad leveraged his ass deep into soybeans (and cocoa) and made a killing.

[Wally Fairway 5550]

markets all better - continue to go long
nothing more to see here - everybody back in the water

[jimmyjazz 45963]

Man, not in the pool.