Markets still falling like whoa

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

On 9/5/2019 at 2:38 PM, Reagan1k said:

I read that too but didn't take away that he thought it was a large cap bubble - rather an overall bubble due to passive assets holding so many securities with no liquidity (based on their average daily volume).

It's something I hadn't really considered prior....the lack of non-index activity in a majority of the issues which some of the biggest indexes hold.

Basically everybody is forced to sell everything and there is no demand for a lot of these issues outside of the Indexes themselves.

Pretty interesting.....Not sure I'd want to bet against him.

 

 

Are the large index funds mainly kept afloat and/or expanding based on the billions pouring in via new payroll contributions? Basically new money paying off old investors, with the promise of a promise of future rounds of funding.  What’s the name for that type of scheme again?

 

[52-80 19147]

19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Are the large index funds mainly kept afloat and/or expanding based on the billions pouring in via new payroll contributions? Basically new money paying off old investors, with the promise of a promise of future rounds of funding.  What’s the name for that type of scheme again?

 

Social security?

[ChiTownDoc 21141]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

So they want to put the money to use, but that is not an invitation to throw it away.  10B of that 50B is an outsized bet, and requires a bit more diligence than VC-style blessing of 100 companies, banking on 1 home-run.

 

(Hell, if they've got so much dormant money, they could always take it to my cousin Asadulah, who works in securities....) 

I’m not saying it’s a good bet.  I’m saying when you have pressure to make deals and a lot of this is an auction process, even good banks overpay/make bad deals. 

And as for as your cousin Assadullah (lol), they raise that money to be PE money.  They can’t take their investor money and go throw it in securities.  It’s not an option.  

After we did our sale I gave X dollars to PE funds.  Most of it is still parked.  So I’m pressuring GS to find a fund that can put my money to work.  I guarantee you they can’t take that parked money and decide to do whatever the fuck they want with it.  

Edited September 9, 2019 by ChiTownDoc

[52-80 19147]

 

[Wally Fairway 5541]

On 8/23/2019 at 1:18 PM, Cheeseweasel said:

I wish I could operate his twitter account for a day. The ultimate in Insider Trading.

 

[SoCalHorn 40]

12 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m not saying it’s a good bet.  I’m saying when you have pressure to make deals and a lot of this is an auction process, even good banks overpay/make bad deals. 

And as for as your cousin Assadullah (lol), they raise that money to be PE money.  They can’t take their investor money and go throw it in securities.  It’s not an option.  

After we did our sale I gave X dollars to PE funds.  Most of it is still parked.  So I’m pressuring GS to find a fund that can put my money to work.  I guarantee you they can’t take that parked money and decide to do whatever the fuck they want with it.  

Not to derail the thread but your view of SoftBank isn’t completely accurate. They do have a shit ton of capital to deploy but not like IB as they raised outside money mostly from the Middle East to create a fund just to do Venturing investing. 

Softbank’s view is that most markets are winner take all so their game plan is to create a moat by effectively giving startups almost unlimited funding. As a result, valuation matters less. 

The wework ipo debacle only matters to them as it is making it awkward / hard for them to raise their second fund. 

[ChiTownDoc 21141]

26 minutes ago, SoCalHorn said:

Not to derail the thread but your view of SoftBank isn’t completely accurate. They do have a shit ton of capital to deploy but not like IB as they raised outside money mostly from the Middle East to create a fund just to do Venturing investing. 

Softbank’s view is that most markets are winner take all so their game plan is to create a moat by effectively giving startups almost unlimited funding. As a result, valuation matters less. 

The wework ipo debacle only matters to them as it is making it awkward / hard for them to raise their second fund. 

Not really arguing with you.  Putting money into play is about as important as actually winning with that money.  Not sure I’m seeing a big disconnect with what we both are saying.   

[SoCalHorn 40]

23 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Not really arguing with you.  Putting money into play is about as important as actually winning with that money.  Not sure I’m seeing a big disconnect with what we both are saying.   

 

[ChiTownDoc 21141]

Yes paying a 12x vs a 15x doesn't make much difference if after the purchase, you drown competitors with your cash.  Must be nice.  I volunteer to run one of the companies in their portfolio. 

[Anastasis 23458]

27k/3k again. 

[Trey3216 15343]

Mnuchin speaking this morning about considerations for issuing a 50yr bond next year.  

Id be all for it, especially  if the issuances were used/tied to major infrastructure projects.   

 

Thoughts?

[Wally Fairway 5541]

And the TOTUS (Tweeter of the United States) pushing for zero interest rates. Doing everything he can to push the recession (if there is one) past the election cycle.
I'm not saying I want a recession, but if we are going to get one I certainly hope it comes in time to influence the vote.

[Reagan1k 3024]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Mnuchin speaking this morning about considerations for issuing a 50yr bond next year.  

Id be all for it, especially  if the issuances were used/tied to major infrastructure projects.   

 

Thoughts?

That would be too smart for either party and even if they decided to do it, they'd screw it up. 

My guess is this 50 yr issuance and the inevitable 100 yr to come will be used to simply kick the debt down the road.  In the long we are all dead.

[Trey3216 15343]

8 minutes ago, Reagan1k said:

That would be too smart for either party and even if they decided to do it, they'd screw it up. 

My guess is this 50 yr issuance and the inevitable 100 yr to come will be used to simply kick the debt down the road.  In the long we are all dead.

No doubt that's what it'll be used for.   I almost wish they'd issue both in the same year, and find some way to gut the federal budget and outstanding entitlement outlays that way we could refinance, reconstruct our infrastructure, and pare down at the same time. 

 

But wishing for this is like expecting Jesus to ride back next week on a unicorn.  

[Reagan1k 3024]

I'd love to see the circus if someone proposed using the 100yr to do a pension style buyout on the SS system that gave retires a one time lump sum payout and pre-retirees a refund of their past SS taxes plus some interest earnings while reinventing the whole safety net principle.

[Trey3216 15343]

36 minutes ago, Reagan1k said:

I'd love to see the circus if someone proposed using the 100yr to do a pension style buyout on the SS system that gave retires a one time lump sum payout and pre-retirees a refund of their past SS taxes plus some interest earnings while reinventing the whole safety net principle.

That's pretty close to what I was imagining.  

[Reagan1k 3024]

Casinos and brokerage firms / life insurance companies would love it.

[TwiceHorn 31438]

Casinos.  Lmao.  So true.  Also car and jetski dealerships.

[hornhorn 100]

58 minutes ago, Reagan1k said:

I'd love to see the circus if someone proposed using the 100yr to do a pension style buyout on the SS system that gave retires a one time lump sum payout and pre-retirees a refund of their past SS taxes plus some interest earnings while reinventing the whole safety net principle.

Most Americans are absolutely terrible at managing and handling money. They're bad at Math and planning and even worse at avoiding instant gratification. Uh no thanks on this idea because we'll end up paying for them again. 

[elfenix 34223]

1 hour ago, Reagan1k said:

That would be too smart for either party and even if they decided to do it, they'd screw it up. 

My guess is this 50 yr issuance and the inevitable 100 yr to come will be used to simply kick the debt down the road.  In the long we are all dead.

the debt will always get kicked down the road, it will never be repaid, and the debt clock is almost never going to run backward.  so, if you can lock in ridiculously low interest rates on that length of time, you do it. 

[Anastasis 23458]

What happens if they show up to sell 100 yr bonds at extremely low interest rates and nobody shows up to buy?

[Dbeasy 15042]

I’m here to offer 1,000 year balloon notes at an interest of 20% apr to any surly investors that are looking for some really awesome long term yields.

[Incredulity 11650]

43 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I’m here to offer 1,000 year balloon notes at an interest of 20% apr to any surly investors that are looking for some really awesome long term yields.

Dat payout doe.

[Reagan1k 3024]

1 hour ago, hornhorn said:

Most Americans are absolutely terrible at managing and handling money. They're bad at Math and planning and even worse at avoiding instant gratification. Uh no thanks on this idea because we'll end up paying for them again. 

That's why I said I'd love to see the circus if the idea was floated.  Not saying the idea is good....It would simply be delightful to watch the debate. 

[Reagan1k 3024]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I’m here to offer 1,000 year balloon notes at an interest of 20% apr to any surly investors that are looking for some really awesome long term yields.

Can I buy those using a credit card?

[TwiceHorn 31438]

1 hour ago, hornhorn said:

Most Americans are absolutely terrible at managing and handling money. They're bad at Math and planning and even worse at avoiding instant gratification. Uh no thanks on this idea because we'll end up paying for them again. 

But I'll be dead!  /murica

[babysdaddy 2719]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

What happens if they show up to sell 100 yr bonds at extremely low interest rates and nobody shows up to buy?

"Hi US Treasury, we're the Federal Reserve.  We will take all of it."

"Uhhhh, aren't you us?"

"No, not at all related.  We just invented $2 Trillion in our pocket, here you go"

"K thx bye"

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

"Hi US Treasury, we're the Federal Reserve.  We will take all of it."

"Uhhhh, aren't you us?"

"No, not at all related.  We just invented $2 Trillion in our pocket, here you go"

"K thx bye"

Not directly from the Treasury, got to insert the regional banks as middle man so they get guaranteed profit first.

[Bozo_Casanova 26435]

Mnuchin speaking this morning about considerations for issuing a 50yr bond next year.  
Id be all for it, especially  if the issuances were used/tied to major infrastructure projects.   
 
Thoughts?

I’m still thinking it through, but my interim position is that Mnuchin thinks it’s a good idea, so it is likely very stupid.

[Trey3216 15343]

29 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m still thinking it through, but my interim position is that Mnuchin thinks it’s a good idea, so it is likely very stupid.

Cool deal.  Thanks for the input.  

[hornhorn 100]

48 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m still thinking it through, but my interim position is that Mnuchin thinks it’s a good idea, so it is likely very stupid.

CR is -------> way. 

[babysdaddy 2719]

57 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Not directly from the Treasury, got to insert the regional banks as middle man so they get guaranteed profit first.

Trying to insert the explanation of a primary dealer and their role in treasury auctions didn't help the joke flow

[Bozo_Casanova 26435]

That’s not a political take about Mnuchin. It’s strictly based on his public statements, actions, and expressed ideas about economic policy and their effect.

I mean, you’re smart, Trey, and you like it. Maybe you should be treasury secretary and I would be less skeptical.

 

It’s like a Bruce Bochy situation. You could have the exact same idea about an in-game tactic and I would still rather have you manage my baseball team.

 

 

 

[Trey3216 15343]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I mean, you’re smart, and you like it. Maybe you should be treasury secretary and I would be less skeptical.

It’s like Bruce Bochy. You could have the exact same ideas about in-game tactics and I would still rather have you manage my baseball team.

[swraith 345]

I am conflicted.

Strategically, I am fine with the concept. The federal debt will never actually be paid off. Deficit does I g is going to continue for a long time. If we have incremental infrastructure spending that is debt financed that leads to increased productivity that has a fixed ultra low interest rate...that is a win all around. Nothing to complain about.

However. Timing matters.

I don’t believe any infrastructure spending in going to be passed in the next 12 months. Trump is calling for the FED to lower interest rates. ECB just cut rates. So more than likely rates are headed lower...not higher. If a recession hits...lower rates may be here for a really long time....years and years.

So tactically...if there is no belief that rates will rise significantly in the next 5 years....keep your debt variabilized on the short end of the curve to keep your cost of interest as low as possible. These 50 year bonds don’t change the overall level of borrowing, just the interest payment cost and duration.

The above tactic could blow up in your face if rates spike. But that doesn’t appear to be the case today.

[staboner 4969]

straight cash homie. 

bad shit always happens in the fall

[Anastasis 23458]

2 minutes ago, staboner said:

straight cash homie. 

bad shit always happens in the fall

My primary retirement account is all cash at the moment. My trading account is 20% cash, moving some stuff that has really run hot to cover charitable giving for the year, and rolling out of things with goal to be mostly cash by Jan/feb. 

 

So that means that most likely we are about to see an epic run up over the next 4-6 months. 

[Incredulity 11650]

 

[staboner 4969]

31 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

My primary retirement account is all cash at the moment. My trading account is 20% cash, moving some stuff that has really run hot to cover charitable giving for the year, and rolling out of things with goal to be mostly cash by Jan/feb. 

 

So that means that most likely we are about to see an epic run up over the next 4-6 months. 

ha. yeah i went like 80% cash in retirement. i just can't see a world in the next few years where this 27k ticker doesn't get corrected. it is easier seeing that than a run even higher, but hey i am wrong often. good luck my homie

[Anastasis 23458]

We’ll prob run to 30k/3.5k on the wave of a china deal just cause god fades my market moves. 

[woohorn 1131]

This still the HMNY thread? Just heard Movie Pass shutting down.

Hope everyone got out long ago!

[Bozo_Casanova 26435]

This still the HMNY thread? Just heard Movie Pass shutting down.

Hope everyone got out long ago!

Nope!

[TwiceHorn 31438]

I never think of making major moves in my qualified accounts, but I guess if you're gonna go cash that's where to do it.  The tax hit elsewhere would be brutal.

[jimmyjazz 45887]

What's the go-to trading simulator?  I know I used to use one but I've forgotten the name.  Thought it was stockfetcher but that appears to just be a way to write filters to find stocks to trade.

I have a very specific idea I want to backtest with existing daily data and would rather not write a spreadsheet to simulate it if I don't have to.

[Incredulity 11650]

Yourmotherhatescapitalism.com

[TonyTexas 10505]

WeWork has delayed plans to list on the stock exchange in the US after struggling to gain enough interest from investors.

WeWork said in a statement on Tuesday that its initial public offering (IPO) would “be completed by the end of the year.” WeWork had planned to start an investor roadshow this week, with a listing likely in the coming weeks.

[Bozo_Casanova 26435]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

WeWork has delayed plans to list on the stock exchange in the US after struggling to gain enough interest from investors.

WeWork said in a statement on Tuesday that its initial public offering (IPO) would “be completed by the end of the year.” WeWork had planned to start an investor roadshow this week, with a listing likely in the coming weeks.

Options for blame according to Axios: "the other guys", time itself, SoftBank, ill-wishers, and ... the Jews. I wish I was kidding.

Quote

WeWork yesterday slammed the brakes on its beleaguered IPO, with sources saying that the process should resume in mid-to-late October.

• Who's at fault? The "other guy," per multiple other guys. But everyone agrees that the calendar played a key role.

Between the lines: As of this past weekend, it was still all systems go. WeWork and SoftBank were hammering out final structure and size details of SoftBank's cornerstone IPO commitment, and bankers were booking ballrooms. The idea was to launch the road-show either Monday or Tuesday, with a pricing next Thursday night into first trades on Friday.

That's when things get murky. I've heard that the SoftBank deal couldn't quite be finalized in time, although I've also heard it's all sewn up. I've heard that some big investors kept pushing for additional governance changes, but I've also heard that the book is effectively covered.

• The IPO needed to launch by yesterday in order to price in September, as this isn't the sort of company that can afford a truncated road-show.
• Rosh Hashanah begins a week from this Sunday night, and Yom Kippur is the following week. It's generally considered disrespectful to road-show during Jewish high holidays, and it would have been a particular no-go for Israel-born CEO Adam Neumann.
• That brings us to the week of October 16.
• WeWork could launch then, but only if it can do so with at least preliminary Q3 numbers. Company finance execs today have been charged with determining by when those figures can be compiled and reported.
• WeWork isn't saying much publicly, except putting out a statement last night that it expects to complete the IPO by year-end. Remember, the corresponding credit facility commitments expire if the public offering pushes past 2019.

The bottom line: This is obviously a negative event, with WeWork bonds tumbling deep on the news. And it provides more schadenfreude for those in Silicon Valley who want to see SoftBank suffer. At the same time, however, so far it's more of a procedural fail than a material one.

Go deeper: The battle over WeWork's IPO

 

[LABEVO 928]

Aren't they running low on cash? Will Softbank give more cash so it does not go under?

[52-80 19147]

the jews did this?

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

This still the HMNY thread? Just heard Movie Pass shutting down.

 

Hope everyone got out long ago!

Yuge volume today in HMNY