Markets still falling like whoa

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

In terms of WeWork and others, it's reasonable to assume that there are flaws in the VC funding world. They can be great at finding undervalued start-ups and steering them towards unicorn status, but they can also get stuck with companies that are basically a crappy house with a new coat of paint. Gotta unload that house on a sucker showing up at your open house day.  If Softbank invest billions in WeWork, they need to keep pumping up the company at a high multiple and attempt to sell WeWork as a totally new thing. (Big Short reference with Anthony Bordain.)

I just read the following and validated it's still an on-going promotion:

"A year at WeWork comes free with the American Express Business Platinum credit card, and the card now costs $595 for the year. So, we've marveled at how we're getting a decent Manhattan spot to work at for less than $50 per month per membership."

If you're giving away your product for free, then your customers will ultimately get annoyed when they have to pay for it. Or they just won't pay for it and move onto another shared space company being subsidized by another VC firm.

A question for the tax/accounting/finance types here.  On that Amex promotion above, WeWork claims their 1-yr promotion is a $2,700 value. Seems very reasonable for a year long office space arrangement. But they obviously don't bring in $2700 in rent. Can they claim $2700 as revenue and then write the whole amount down as a promotional expense on the other side of the income statement?

 

[Anastasis 23469]

On 9/6/2019 at 2:16 PM, Anastasis said:

Not 100% sure what I am doing lol but bought some Dec SPY puts. 

blind squirrel...nut..etc...

[Trey3216 15346]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

blind squirrel...nut..etc...

I bought a bunch of VXX weekly $26 and $30 calls before the close yesterday.  I think we're gonna get slaughtered all week here.  Wouldn't be surprised a bit if we have some sort of flash crash, all it takes is an 11 am Friday tweet and this thing is gonna sell off 1000+ points easily.  

[Anastasis 23469]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

I bought a bunch of VXX weekly $26 and $30 calls before the close yesterday.  I think we're gonna get slaughtered all week here.  Wouldn't be surprised a bit if we have some sort of flash crash, all it takes is an 11 am Friday tweet and this thing is gonna sell off 1000+ points easily.  

take your pick imo.  An unhinged tweet, China doing China things, Iran doing Iran things, House impeachment, some rando shit you can't even think of at the moment..

[Wally Fairway 5543]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

blind squirrel...nut..etc...

now all you have to do is leverage up your put gains by timing your calls for the rebound....you'll be Surly 1% in no time.

[Trey3216 15346]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

take your pick...

Jackson, Tyson, Jordan, game 6 

[jimmyjazz 45898]

20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

blind squirrel...nut..etc...

Put it all on the Astros to win the World Series.

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

now all you have to do is leverage up your put gains by timing your calls for the rebound....you'll be Surly 1% in no time.

 

I like where your head's at shooter, but I am happy atm having my remaining equity positions hedged and making money with a mix of puts and covered calls as we drift down. I am a donkey compared to most of the traders and market minds on this thread, but I think that we see <2700 before we see >3000 again. Let's see what happens with China and impeachment. 

[Anastasis 23469]

11 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Put it all on the Astros to win the World Series.

My bookie doesn't have a listing for the WS, only the pennant @ -200. 

[housious 468]

Is now the time to sell everything and move to Terlingua?

[Bozo_Casanova 26443]

I just got a bunch of cash out of some RSUs and for want of anything else good to do I opened a Betterment account yesterday that is 90% stock.
 
So, we're fucked now for sure. 

And just like that, down ~3% in

[Trey3216 15346]

Sold the $26 strike VXX calls today for a 3x profit.  Used some of that to buy the same lot at the 27 strike.  Wouldn't be shocked to see VXX trade north of 32 by close friday.  

[Anastasis 23469]

numbers read out, ride be like

[Sbbruin 21840]

Poor services economy data out. And down down down Dow we go.

 

I don't care for this at all.

 

[Trey3216 15346]

And...We're back to green.  Market likely pricing in another FED rate cut, perhaps the 50bps variety they wanted in Sept.  

[HRSchenker 2268]

Can someone explain to me why unemployment is at a 50-60 year low, the economy is chugging along, and yet everyone is broke? I mean look at this shit

https://www.wsj.com/articles/eyeing-that-sweater-its-yours-in-four-easy-payments-11569672000?shareToken=st3446dbf1487b40519e0556b0cc3a9ab7

People will cite stagnant wages but how can you explain away stuff like this? 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

On 10/2/2019 at 7:26 AM, jdhorn92 said:

Don’t forget JD Uniphase.

Stock ticker JDSU. Just Don’t Sell Us.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

nm

Edited October 5, 2019 by Fudge Nuggets

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

33 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

People will cite stagnant wages but how can you explain away stuff like this? 

Cather­ine Ta­bor, 24, has used the AmEx arrange­ment nine times since late last year, in­clud­ing for Fleet­wood Mac con­cert tick­ets and an opera house tour.

Ms. Ta­bor, who goes to law school in Tuscaloosa, Ala., and is work­ing part time, has paid off those bal­ances.

“I’m not mak­ing a whole lot of money,” she said, “so this is re­ally help­ful.”

Poors that blow their money on Fleetwood Mac tickets and Opera House tours are not financially savvy and there’s a lot of them out there.

[bernorange 8359]

On 10/5/2019 at 8:47 AM, HRSchenker said:

Can someone explain to me why unemployment is at a 50-60 year low, the economy is chugging along, and yet everyone is broke? I mean look at this shit

https://www.wsj.com/articles/eyeing-that-sweater-its-yours-in-four-easy-payments-11569672000?shareToken=st3446dbf1487b40519e0556b0cc3a9ab7

People will cite stagnant wages but how can you explain away stuff like this? 

Credit?

[Wally Fairway 5543]

Here are a couple of article that discuss the potential issues with ETF's, specifically market indicator funds (S&P 500, DJIA, etc) that the Big 3 funds company's control ( Vanguard, State Street, and Black Rock). These 3 companies now have significant investments in virtually all the S&P 500 companies.

Harvard paper about what they call The Giant Three
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=958073117127105004001102088097121069125005091051065087123098024010087004031117083103030041056026022014118075097082004064094117108051086036081067073127024006111027051016116120094085002119064085068080087104087081113025127096108086092016096105004120&EXT=pdf

NPR article about ETF growing place in the market
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/10/08/767884839/is-your-retirement-fund-ruining-our-economy

 

[LABEVO 928]

On 10/5/2019 at 6:47 AM, HRSchenker said:

Can someone explain to me why unemployment is at a 50-60 year low, the economy is chugging along, and yet everyone is broke? I mean look at this shit

https://www.wsj.com/articles/eyeing-that-sweater-its-yours-in-four-easy-payments-11569672000?shareToken=st3446dbf1487b40519e0556b0cc3a9ab7

People will cite stagnant wages but how can you explain away stuff like this? 

Quantity of jobs != quality jobs

[bluto 4916]

Here are a couple of article that discuss the potential issues with ETF's, specifically market indicator funds (S&P 500, DJIA, etc) that the Big 3 funds company's control ( Vanguard, State Street, and Black Rock). These 3 companies now have significant investments in virtually all the S&P 500 companies.
Harvard paper about what they call The Giant Three
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=958073117127105004001102088097121069125005091051065087123098024010087004031117083103030041056026022014118075097082004064094117108051086036081067073127024006111027051016116120094085002119064085068080087104087081113025127096108086092016096105004120&EXT=pdf
NPR article about ETF growing place in the market
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2019/10/08/767884839/is-your-retirement-fund-ruining-our-economy
 

Ass talk warning....
People are just getting the hell squeezed out of them on all sides. Housing in any decent area is crazy expensive, healthcare costs (including insurance premiums) are a joke, and cars are expensive as hell. Throw on childcare to the mix.

Im in my mid 30s but grew up very comfortably in a single income ($110k gross HH income roughly) home with 3 siblings in a very solid DFW burb... good effing luck making that work now.

[Aqua Buddha 14587]

Yeah, incomes may be up but the main categories in personal finance are housing, health care, education, and cars and they're all up significantly.  Sure, you can mitigate some of those but not all.  Throw in the urbanization of America and you have to be in larger more expensive cities to make better money.  

[TwiceHorn 31447]

In addition to the cost of necessities, it seems like the level of general consumption is up.

Add things like cell phones and laptops to even schoolkids' budgets.  Music subscriptions, video games, multitudes of gadgets for the house, etc. etc.

You can still get reliable transportation for a pretty reasonable cost, but that fucking Tahoe now costs a mint.

Edited October 8, 2019 by TwiceHorn

[elfenix 34230]

29 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

In addition to the cost of necessities, it seems like the level of general consumption is up.

Add things like cell phones and laptops to even schoolkids' budgets.  Music subscriptions, video games, multitudes of gadgets for the house, etc. etc.

You can still get reliable transportation for a pretty reasonable cost, but that fucking Tahoe now costs a mint.

the average auto loan is damn near 6 years now.

[HRSchenker 2268]

3 hours ago, LABEVO said:

Quantity of jobs != quality jobs

People say that kind of stuff but is that really the reason why people are making monthly payments for Air Jordans? Maybe you just need to stick to Sketchers. Maybe you should get an android tracphone rather than splurge for the iPhone every year. Maybe you should buy a used car rather than take out a 6 year car loan for a Ford 500. Maybe you need to rent in south Dallas rather than scratch and claw for a 30 year mortgage in Lake Highlands. 

But you can't say that to people in my generation because it's almost like a personal attack.

[Celery Man 20934]

you must be a boomer

[Wally Fairway 5543]

47 minutes ago, elfenix said:

the average auto loan is damn near 6 years now.

When (if) interest rates rise again, it will kill the auto industry and the home builders. Because their business model is based on selling $60,000 SUVs & Trucks and $400,000 and up houses that have "affordable" payments based on near zero % loans for vehicles and sub 4% loans on homes. 

Then again I'm old, because I remember double digit rates on both, and I thought I got a great deal on my first house at 9.3875%

[Aqua Buddha 14587]

I find it fucking ridiculous that 6 and 7 year car loans are now the norm.

[Captainant 27647]

28 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

People say that kind of stuff but is that really the reason why people are making monthly payments for Air Jordans? Maybe you just need to stick to Sketchers. Maybe you should get an android tracphone rather than splurge for the iPhone every year. Maybe you should buy a used car rather than take out a 6 year car loan for a Ford 500. Maybe you need to rent in south Dallas rather than scratch and claw for a 30 year mortgage in Lake Highlands. 

But you can't say that to people in my generation because it's almost like a personal attack.

Have you considered that you're attacking a straw man argument? People are so economically fragile right now that a single trip to the hospital can bankrupt them, or they're paying more than their rent/mortgage in student debt payments (or have student debt in excess of $100k). 

People are hurting and the economy is slowing because that "gold" trickling down is just piss. Wage growth has gone to the top earners, profits and earnings go to shareholders first and not employees, and as mentioned before the cost of living (specifically, housing and medical care) have increased disproportionately from median wage growth. 

[Pig Bellmont 8712]

30 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

People say that kind of stuff but is that really the reason why people are making monthly payments for Air Jordans? Maybe you just need to stick to Sketchers. Maybe you should get an android tracphone rather than splurge for the iPhone every year. Maybe you should buy a used car rather than take out a 6 year car loan for a Ford 500. Maybe you need to rent in south Dallas rather than scratch and claw for a 30 year mortgage in Lake Highlands. 

But you can't say that to people in my generation because it's almost like a personal attack.

Yeah, personal responsibility is the cause, not ever rising healthcare costs, education loans, or housing prices. Just make a dang pbj for lunch and quit bitching. Right fellas?  [did my sarcasm font come through? I didn’t realize Ayn Rand came back from the dead to post here]

[hornhorn 100]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Have you considered that you're attacking a straw man argument? People are so economically fragile right now that a single trip to the hospital can bankrupt them, or they're paying more than their rent/mortgage in student debt payments (or have student debt in excess of $100k). 

People are hurting and the economy is slowing because that "gold" trickling down is just piss. Wage growth has gone to the top earners, profits and earnings go to shareholders first and not employees, and as mentioned before the cost of living (specifically, housing and medical care) have increased disproportionately from median wage growth. 

He isn't lying. Iphone sales by model: 

 

I suppose people could buy more model 7 instead of X, XS, XS Max, XR and it would save them $500, but we can't have that. The sheer number of people not doing so kinda blows your stance that its a strawman argument. I'm sure we could do the same with cars, houses etc.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

14 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I find it fucking ridiculous that 6 and 7 year car loans are now the norm.

I hate to say it, but with certain interest rates, it may be the right financial decision for some to invest money elsewhere and let the bank earn a few pennies on your auto loan. To do this correctly, you need to have the ability to cover the auto loan payments in case of a job loss or other financial hardships.

[Pig Bellmont 8712]

2 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

He isn't lying. Iphone sales by model: 

 

I suppose people could buy more model 7 instead of X, XS, XS Max, XR and it would save them $500, but we can't have that. The sheer number of people not doing so kinda blows your stance that its a strawman argument. I'm sure we could do the same with cars, houses etc.

“Zomg so many people bought iPhones- complaints by Americans about their flat wage growth must be bullshit!” That’s what you sound like 

[Celery Man 20934]

nobody just goes out and buys the new iphone for retail.  if you took every mother with 3 crying kids who was buying groceries (entirely cheetos) with foodstamps while holding the brand new iphone she just spent $1000 near some eagle eyed beacon of personal responsibility in the line at HEB and put them all in the same room you'd have an empty room

[hornhorn 100]

Just now, Pig Bellmont said:

“Zomg so many people bought iPhones- complaints by Americans about their flat wage growth must be bullshit!” That’s what you sound like 

Wage growth has gone to people that went to school. We have an advanced economy that rewards brains over doing same monotonous work over and over and over and over. And over. 

Sue me.

"ZOMG I know the problem is me but I'll blame everyone and everything else first!" <---that's what you sound like. 

[hornhorn 100]

1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

nobody just goes out and buys the new iphone for retail.  if you took every mother with 3 crying kids who was buying groceries (entirely cheetos) with foodstamps while holding the brand new iphone she just spent $1000 near some eagle eyed beacon of personal responsibility in the line at HEB and put them all in the same room you'd have an empty room

Now this is an example of a strawman argument. Well done! Paging Pig Bellmont, this is how its done. 

[Celery Man 20934]

sorry, following the well trod path

[Captainant 27647]

21 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

I suppose people could buy more model 7 instead of X, XS, XS Max, XR and it would save them $500, but we can't have that. The sheer number of people not doing so kinda blows your stance that its a strawman argument. I'm sure we could do the same with cars, houses etc.

You realize the chart you shared is of percentile sales, not actual numbers? Not that I doubt that people are tending to buy the new shiny toy over the older model, but you're using bad information to make your argument lol.

Also, wage growth isn't going to people that went to school generally. It's going to people who went to school for a subset of degrees. I'm sure you've got a screed bouncing around in your coconut about worthless degrees, and I'll use the factual evidence of wages increasing more quickly for top earners even when holding a degree (from the linked doc comparing 1979 to 2018, 10th percentile wages increased 4%, 50th increased by 14.4%, and 90th by 34.3%.)

And if you'll note, wages look suspiciously flat, despite our GDP increasing basically non-stop. That's not caused by Tammie getting the new iphone. That's caused by trickledown economics socializing the costs and privatizing the reward over the last forty years.

Edited October 8, 2019 by Captainant

[hornhorn 100]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

You realize the chart you shared is of percentile sales, not actual numbers? Not that I doubt that people are tending to buy the new shiny toy over the older model, but you're using bad information to make your argument lol.

Also, wage growth isn't going to people that went to school. It's going to people who went to school for a subset of degrees. I'm sure you've got a screed bouncing around in your coconut about worthless degrees, and I'll use the factual evidence of wages increasing more quickly for top earners even when holding a degree (from the linked doc comparing 1979 to 2018, 10th percentile wages increased 4%, 50th increased by 14.4%, and 90th by 34.3%.)

And if you'll note, wages look suspiciously flat, despite our GDP increasing basically non-stop. That's not caused by Tammie getting the new iphone. That's caused by trickledown economics socializing the costs and privatizing the reward over the last forty years.

First, we don't have actual numbers for those iphones because Apple stopped reporting actual units early last year. But we have revenue of close to $30 billion in that quarter made up mostly by those units. I'll let you do the Math.

On your second point, yes our economy rewards college degrees over running back and forth from kitchen moving plates as it should. You're arguing against paying people that create value, it just wont happen. The 50th percentile wages grew, just not as much as the 90th percentile. Although this data is keeping inflation in mind. 

What we're arguing is that Tammie(in your example) not only chooses not to educate herself but chooses to have kids when she isn't ready, with multiple losers at times and further complicates her life by going on to buy the latest iPhone, a Mustang and renting furniture she shouldn't. 

[Captainant 27647]

Sigh. Not gonna get into it, no amount of data and evidence will convince you that poor people are anything but lazy and irresponsible I guess? I'm sure they wouldn't know the first thing to do with a silver spoon up their ass

[hornhorn 100]

8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Sigh. Not gonna get into it, no amount of data and evidence will convince you that poor people are anything but lazy and irresponsible I guess? I'm sure they wouldn't know the first thing to do with a silver spoon up their ass

I feel the same way. No amount of data will convince you that people make bad decisions everyday, constantly and then complain about being broke. Just being born in America is equivalent being born with a silver spoon, but sigh they would never know because they haven't been anywhere else. 

Oh well, agree to disagree.

[elfenix 34230]

ah good the old poor people just need to stop consuming themselves into being poor.  it's not at all that the system encourages people to consume consume consume by shouting at them that they need to do that all the fucking time (which of course is needed otherwise the system that made swam hornhorn a decent chunk of change collapses - the irony in the argument).  if only you hadn't bought that $1000 phone that'd make up for the 0.345% annual wage growth over the last 40 years for median college educated earners!

Edited October 8, 2019 by elfenix

[housious 468]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

When (if) interest rates rise again, it will kill the auto industry and the home builders. Because their business model is based on selling $60,000 SUVs & Trucks and $400,000 and up houses that have "affordable" payments based on near zero % loans for vehicles and sub 4% loans on homes. 

Then again I'm old, because I remember double digit rates on both, and I thought I got a great deal on my first house at 9.3875%

Wouldn't large interest rates essentially make the federal government go into default at this point? I was under the impression we'll never see high rates again. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26443]

2 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

People say that kind of stuff but is that really the reason why people are making monthly payments for Air Jordans? People say that kind of stuff but is that really the reason why people are making monthly payments for Air Jordans? Maybe you just need to stick to Sketchers. Maybe you should get an android tracphone rather than splurge for the iPhone every year. Maybe you should buy a used car rather than take out a 6 year car loan for a Ford 500. Maybe you need to rent in south Dallas rather than scratch and claw for a 30 year mortgage in Lake Highlands. 

Yes, that's really the reason, maybe avail yourself of data on income distribution and median income growth relative to productivity before spouting bullshit about basketball shoes, iphones, and living in South Dallas. 

Decent dogwhistle, however. Bet you liked college football more when the players were "clean cut", too. 

Edited October 8, 2019 by Bozo_Casanova

[Captainant 27647]

22 minutes ago, hornhorn said:

Just being born in America is equivalent being born with a silver spoon, but sigh they would never know because they haven't been anywhere else. 

I really doubt that people in Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, West Virginia, and the rest of opiod-america would agree with you there. To many folks, there is no escape and no road to economic growth. But don't let me get in the way of you writing in a triple after being born on third.

[Nueces River Rat 5538]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

When (if) interest rates rise again, it will kill the auto industry and the home builders. Because their business model is based on selling $60,000 SUVs & Trucks and $400,000 and up houses that have "affordable" payments based on near zero % loans for vehicles and sub 4% loans on homes. 

Then again I'm old, because I remember double digit rates on both, and I thought I got a great deal on my first house at 9.3875%

Alot of my relatives and older friends who bought home in 70's thought I got the deal of a lifetime when I bought my first home in 1995 with 7.75% rate.   Go figure.

[Bozo_Casanova 26443]

Oh jeez I have no idea why people aren't happy with their incomes. It's not like the entire implicit bargain with the labor force that built the American middle class and domestic consumer market ceased to fucking exist or anything. No, not concern trolling at all. 
Let's look at some graphs and imagine they have the Air Jordan logo on them!

First of all it's well understood that workers are keeping less of what they create than they used to.  But it's actually worse than it looks. 


The black line is the dollars created by work. 
The green line is what most people make. 
See that blue line? Thats the average comp, which is distorted upwards by income inequality. That's the line in the graph above.  But that line is what things (housing, phones) are priced for. Do you know what fills that gap betseen green and blue? Cheap debt. 

Do you know what cheap debt does and why we keep debt cheap? To prop up home values. It works!

But why aren't these kids saving money like you did? Well, in part because they are punished for it.

And partly because they pay higher payroll taxes than you did, in addition to everything being more expensive.




How about it @HRSchenker, could there be something to this income thing - that younger workers got fucked? Or are people just buying too much fried chicken?

[Continental Op 3934]

ALL OF THESE STUPID LAZY POORS NEED TO TRAVEL BACK IN TIME AND GO TO UT AT THE SAME TIME AS I DID WHEN IT COST LIKE 5 PER CREDIT HOUR AND YOU COULD RENT A HOUSE IN HYDE PARK WITH A FEW OTHER PEOPLE FOR 1000 A MONTH! BOOTSTRAPS!