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Posted
  On 2/5/2020 at 5:52 PM, dad said:

When would be a good time to buy some Microsoft stock? I feel like they will do well with their focus on the cloud. I am thinking that it being too close to earning report time I would be buying too high right now. Should I wait a while, if so how much? 

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2012

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Posted
  On 2/5/2020 at 10:35 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:
time for me to start putting money somewhere.  my current plan is to just open a vanguard account and buy some ETFs that track the indexes and start my learning that way.  good idea?


Put in money a little at a time for a long time. You are buying in now at historically high levels.
Posted (edited)
  On 2/5/2020 at 10:35 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

time for me to start putting money somewhere.  my current plan is to just open a vanguard account and buy some ETFs that track the indexes and start my learning that way.  good idea?

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Put most of your money in the Vanguard 500 fund.  Or SPY (the SP500 ETF).  You can play around with the other index ETFs, but that should probably be regarded more as speculation than investment.  

Should probably also find a Vanguard fund that includes small caps and foreign markets.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Posted
  On 2/5/2020 at 11:16 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Shit.  I thought about buying some puts yesterday.  

"Oh well, honey, we could have gone to Hawaii.  Maybe next year."

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LOL.  I shorted more than a small position for me on Tuesday.  Got pretty upside down on it as the day played out, and then bailed out big time at the close. I was too pussy to hold that shit overnight, so closed it out near the bell.  Took up another short day trade yesterday, and it worked out ok.

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Posted
  On 2/6/2020 at 12:32 AM, TwiceHorn said:

Put most of your money in the Vanguard 500 fund.  Or SPY (the SP500 ETF).  You can play around with the other index ETFs, but that should probably be regarded more as speculation than investment.  

Should probably also find a Vanguard fund that includes small caps and foreign markets.

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good advice - I use IJT for a S&P small cap 600, IWM for Russell 2000 and have a split of about 55% SPY, 15% IJT, 15% IWM and the rest is in some higher risk stuff but that 75% is the foundation the Fairway family retirement is being built around.
And I pretty much don't rebalance - but I will adjust where my 401k contributions/match goes if one of the investments has outpaced the field.

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Posted

To continue the Coronavirus gamble, I bought some puts at market open on CCL (both expiring today and in 2 months). With this virus popping up all over the world, who the fuck is gonna want to risk getting stuck in quarantine like those poor fuckers in Japan. It's not a huge story yet, but once the media grabs hold of it and does their thing, summer cruises may be hard to fill.

Posted
  On 2/5/2020 at 10:35 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

time for me to start putting money somewhere.  my current plan is to just open a vanguard account and buy some ETFs that track the indexes and start my learning that way.  good idea?

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I would invest half of it in low risk mutual funds and then take the other half over to my friend Asadulah who works in securities...

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Posted
  On 2/6/2020 at 2:09 PM, Wally Fairway said:

good advice - I use IJT for a S&P small cap 600, IWM for Russell 2000 and have a split of about 55% SPY, 15% IJT, 15% IWM and the rest is in some higher risk stuff but that 75% is the foundation the Fairway family retirement is being built around.
And I pretty much don't rebalance - but I will adjust where my 401k contributions/match goes if one of the investments has outpaced the field.

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To elaborate on this a little.  A good Vanguard low/no cost fund, yes a managed fund, that is kind of diverse, may not beat the SP500, but the managers also hedge some of the risk, too.  Meaning it won't go as low in a crisis and will probably come back faster.

Not completely guaranteed, but you can use cheap managed funds and not have to worry much about "getting out" or "buying back in" at the right time.  Index funds aren't ideal for that: they're riskier.

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Posted

WSJ article on Tesla stock spike

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-bet-against-teslaand-lost-8-4-billion-in-five-weeks-11581284236?mod=hp_lead_pos7

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Posted

They must be planning on a longer shutdown

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-china-economy-xi-jinping-12418398

  Quote

BEIJING: Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Monday (Feb 10) the government will prevent large-scale layoffs amid the coronavirus outbreak, Chinese state television reported, as he appeared among the public for the first time since the epidemic started.

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Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 2:18 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Beijing and Shanghai are on full lockdown, and factories are being ordered to stay closed.

Everything is fine.  

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I honestly can't believe the market is just sitting at all-time highs when China, the place that makes most of our shit, is on the verge of an extended shutdown. No place else for the money to go I guess, and they keep printing more. Strange times we live in. 

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Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 9:21 PM, Blotto said:

I honestly can't believe the market is just sitting at all-time highs when China, the place that makes most of our shit, is on the verge of an extended shutdown. No place else for the money to go I guess, and they keep printing more. Strange times we live in. 

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Yep.  I'm almost ready to go long VXX for a short period rather than just buying calls on it.  

Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 9:21 PM, Blotto said:
I honestly can't believe the market is just sitting at all-time highs when China, the place that makes most of our shit, is on the verge of an extended shutdown. No place else for the money to go I guess, and they keep printing more. Strange times we live in. 

Not always, but the “market” usually already has this figured in.
Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 9:21 PM, Blotto said:

I honestly can't believe the market is just sitting at all-time highs when China, the place that makes most of our shit, is on the verge of an extended shutdown. No place else for the money to go I guess, and they keep printing more. Strange times we live in. 

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Yep.  Apple alone - iPhone deliveries are way down, and the largest factories have something like less than 10% of their staffing, if they are even open.    Sure, they have some factories in India, but it’s India.  I think the coronavirus would do quite well there.  Plus, Foxconn factories have fucking barracks and dormitories on site in China - that’s a perfect breeding ground for the virus.  

And it’s supposedly affecting shipments of raw materials, shipping companies, etc.

If the Chinese government is willing to prop up companies, they may not be in much of a rush to get back to 100% production   

Let’s not forget that a lot of medical supplies are also imported from China.  

 

Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 10:02 PM, HouTex said:


Not always, but the “market” usually already has this figured in.

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This thing is not peaking until later in March or April, and production is already shut down in many provinces.   Beijing and Shanghai are shutting down, and they are talking about the death penalty for those found to be spreading it.

Posted

I am in the camp the market has most of this baked in. I think the money on Wall Street has better info, then the rumors and what the sky is falling crowd are saying. 

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Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 10:20 PM, hornbri said:

I am in the camp the market has most of this baked in. I think the money on Wall Street has better info, then the rumors and what the sky is falling crowd are saying. 

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Perhaps, but AAPL is trading just a few bucks off its all-time high, which seems strange considering how much of its products are manufactured in China, and also China accounting for 15% of Apple revenue. If there is anything to this Coronavirus story, I don't see how Apple is not disproportionately affected. 3 months ago, before we had ever heard of this threat, AAPL was trading at 260. Now it's almost 25% higher.

I won a couple grand playing poker this weekend so I doubled up today on more AAPL puts (expiring April). Sad when I consider poker to be less of a gamble than AAPL stock price.

Posted (edited)
  On 2/10/2020 at 10:20 PM, hornbri said:

I am in the camp the market has most of this baked in. I think the money on Wall Street has better info, then the rumors and what the sky is falling crowd are saying. 

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What better info could they possibly have, that hasn’t leaked already?  We know it’s far, far worse than the Chinese are letting on, but we don’t know how much worse.   We had a 100 dead yesterday. At the current rate, we will be hitting hundreds of dead per day within a week or so, and if they are shutting Beijing and Shanghai down now, I imagine the rest of China is not far behind.  
 

And that’s assuming the death stats are at least a little accurate.  The mass burning of bodies in fields has been disproven, but given how full the hospitals are, we are probably missing 15-25 a day in deaths, if not more.  

Edited by atomheartbevo
Posted (edited)
  On 2/10/2020 at 10:42 PM, Blotto said:

Perhaps, but AAPL is trading just a few bucks off its all-time high, which seems strange considering how much of its products are manufactured in China, and also China accounting for 15% of Apple revenue. If there is anything to this Coronavirus story, I don't see how Apple is not disproportionately affected. 3 months ago, before we had ever heard of this threat, AAPL was trading at 260. Now it's almost 25% higher.

I won a couple grand playing poker this weekend so I doubled up today on more AAPL puts (expiring April). Sad when I consider poker to be less of a gamble than AAPL stock price.

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Want to teach me how to win a couple Grand in poker?

Edited by workswithseed
Posted (edited)
  On 2/10/2020 at 10:48 PM, workswithseed said:

Want to teach me how to win a couple Grand in poker?

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Run hot on a table full of shitty and/or aggressive players who refuse to believe you have the goods. About 6 hours at a 1/2 table....don't expect that to be a common occurrence.

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 10:13 PM, atomheartbevo said:

This thing is not peaking until later in March or April, and production is already shut down in many provinces.   Beijing and Shanghai are shutting down, and they are talking about the death penalty for those found to be spreading it.

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I'm pretty sure that it is already a death penalty for some who contract the virus; so are they going to kill them before the virus does?

Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 11:04 PM, Wally Fairway said:

I'm pretty sure that it is already a death penalty for some who contract the virus; so are they going to kill them before the virus does?

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Less than 2% mortality rate is not a death penalty.   We’ve only got 1,000 dead and 40,000 sick that they’ve officially mentioned, but they aren’t able to test many, either for a lack of tests, hospital beds, or they are locked down. 

I would have figured locking down Beijing would be a bigger deal.  

Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 10:42 PM, atomheartbevo said:

What better info could they possibly have, that hasn’t leaked already?  We know it’s far, far worse than the Chinese are letting on, but we don’t know how much worse.   We had a 100 dead yesterday. At the current rate, we will be hitting hundreds of dead per day within a week or so, and if they are shutting Beijing and Shanghai down now, I imagine the rest of China is not far behind.  
 

And that’s assuming the death stats are at least a little accurate.  The mass burning of bodies in fields has been disproven, but given how full the hospitals are, we are probably missing 15-25 a day in deaths, if not more.  

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Well they could be looking at the info outside of China where the mortality rate is much much lower. Then you don't care how bad China is under reporting the number, it looks like outside of China very very few people die from this. 

That would mean that yes China has much much more infected then they know, however most of those are going to be just fine.  Even hundreds of dead per day in the country the size of China is going to have no long term impact. 

TLDR As long as the mortality rate outside of China does not rise significantly it does not matter how badly China is reporting numbers. 

Posted

Realistically, if things continue to get worse, and we are two months out from the peak, how long until the factories open back up to full capacity?

Apple and Samsung as an example, seem like they’d have stuff in the pipeline that needs to be hitting production now.  Maybe they can pull it off in Taiwan I suppose.

Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 11:59 PM, workswithseed said:

Oh my God, I would laugh so hard if Taiwan got better deals cause China became a shit state.

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If the leakers have the iPhone SE 2/iPhone 9 launch date right, it’s supposed to be show off next month.  That means it needs to be in production now, which ain’t happening in China.  So Taiwan or India.   And Samsung has been showing off stuff that needs to be in production right now   

Imagine if India was able to pull some major tech business away from China.  

Posted
  On 2/10/2020 at 10:20 PM, hornbri said:

I am in the camp the market has most of this baked in. I think the money on Wall Street has better info, then the rumors and what the sky is falling crowd are saying. 

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I think Wall St will pull the rug when they see fit.  A Monday holiday would be a good time to do so.  Two weeks from tomorrow will be interesting.  

Posted

How much manufacturing was moved to Indonesia, Viet Nam, etc. because of tariffs?  I doubt it made a big dent in export demand out of China, but it might have provided a bit of a safety net for some US companies.

Posted (edited)

This ends well

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-xi-economy-idUSKBN2050JL

  Quote

BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping warned top officials last week that efforts to contain the new coronavirus had gone too far, threatening the country’s economy, sources told Reuters, days before Beijing rolled out measures to soften the blow.

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  Quote

With growth at its slowest in nearly three decades, China’s leaders seem eager to strike a balance between protecting an already-slowing economy and stamping out an epidemic that has killed more than 1,000 people and infected more than 40,000. 

After reviewing reports on the outbreak from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other economic departments, Xi told local officials during a Feb 3 meeting of the Politburo’s Standing Committee that some of the actions taken to contain the virus are harming the economy, said two people familiar with the meeting, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter. 

He urged them to refrain from “more restrictive measures”, the two people said.

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The willingness to let things get worse as long as goods are shipped should cause a lot of countries to diversify manufacturing even more outside of China.   India, Africa, maybe South America. 

Edited by atomheartbevo
Posted (edited)

So Bezos sold 2 million shares between Jan 31 and Feb 6.  AMZN is up almost 5% since the opening bell yesterday...oops.  I can certainly relate.

Edited by WBT
Posted
  On 2/11/2020 at 4:09 PM, WBT said:

So Bezos sold 2 million shared between Jan 31 and Feb 6.  AMZN is up almost 5% since the opening bell yesterday...oops.  I can certainly relate.

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Could be under a pre-established diversification plan.  

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