Markets still falling like whoa

[atomheartbevo 89,751]

There are screenshots of maritime apps floating around claiming to be of thousands of container ships anchored off the coast of China, that have been stuck there, waiting.  Anybody seen anything about this?

Edited February 17, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Wally Fairway 5,570]

I like this map for shipping, but I'm not sure how to see how long ships have been in their location

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:53.4/centery:33.5/zoom:4

[troph 24,891]

Crazy amount of ships out there wow.

[jimmyjazz 46,000]

Man, I remember the Fauci/Duesberg wars over HIV.  Fauci seems like a complete dick . . . what happened to Duesberg?  His theory did not seem to play out.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

More deflationary pressure pumping in. 

Jay Powell (Federal Reserve) admits Chinese supply chain interruption with the virus is difficult to fathom.

Even if China goes back to work soon - will the shippers be eager to take on the risk? 

Telegraph's AEP attempt to frame some of the issues. Too much? Perhaps, but identifying the issues is important.

Quote

 

Where do we now stand? Regions making up two-thirds of Chinese GDP have been closed since late January. It appears that few people have actually returned to work this week…

Another is property sales in 30 big cities released every day (amazingly). Sales have collapsed to zero and have yet to show a flicker of life…..

Property is a slow-burn issue compared to ruptured manufacturing supply chains, but by March it will start to bite for developers with dollar debts on Hong Kong’s funding market…

Some 25 provinces and municipalities were supposed to go back to work this week but this clashed head on with virus control measures. Companies may not reopen plants unless they can track the exact movements and medical data of each worker, and comply with a 14-day quarantine period where necessary…

The Guangzhou authorities have ordered plants to remain closed until early March in large parts of the city with warnings of ferocious penalties. Apple supplier Foxconn has yet to restart its core iPhone plants in Zhengzhou and Shenzhen. Just 10pc of its workers have turned up. Caixin reports that Foxconn may wait until March before restarting.

Meanwhile the near complete shutdown of Shanghai’s manufacturing hub in Songjiang belied early claims that 70pc of plants were going back to work…

Global angst is for now largely focussed on the car industry, commodities, and shipping. Hyundai, Kia, and Ssangyong have had to shut their car plants in Korea for lack of components. Nissan has closed two assembly lines in Japan. This will spread to Europe within a couple of weeks if the crisis drags on….

This from Richard Meade at Lloyd’s List: “This health emergency has paralysed ports, it has disrupted schedules across all sectors, led to serious challenges for crew management, and prompted a round of container services to be withdrawn, with lines now forecasting issues well into the second quarter of the year. It has thrown the global gas market into turmoil,” he said.

 

https://outline.com/RrCAMA

[Trey3216 15,350]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/apple-warns-on-coronavirus-it-wont-meet-revenue-guidance-because-of-constrained-iphone-supply-and-suppressed-demand-in-china.html

 

Apple warns on coronavirus — it won’t meet revenue guidance because of constrained iPhone supply and suppressed demand in China.  (Story developing)  

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Every dip will be bought.

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

14 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Every dip will be bought.

Until it isn’t.  Then the bottom falls out.  I moved half my money to money market last week.  I’m spooked by the potential fallout here.

[workswithseed 2,109]

22 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Every dip will be bought.

That's what I'm gonna do

[Blotto 23,560]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/apple-warns-on-coronavirus-it-wont-meet-revenue-guidance-because-of-constrained-iphone-supply-and-suppressed-demand-in-china.html

 

Apple warns on coronavirus — it won’t meet revenue guidance because of constrained iPhone supply and suppressed demand in China.  (Story developing)  

This result was one of the biggest no brainers in recent memory. What remains to be seen is how this will affect the stock price, and more importantly (for me anyway) the price on April puts with a 300 strike. I'm down about 25% since I purchased them, so if this news doesnt turn that trade around, I f'n give up.

[Henry Hill 3,156]

[Trey3216 15,350]

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

This result was one of the biggest no brainers in recent memory. What remains to be seen is how this will affect the stock price, and more importantly (for me anyway) the price on April puts with a 300 strike. I'm down about 25% since I purchased them, so if this news doesnt turn that trade around, I f'n give up.

No doubt.  The market hasn’t really reacted to it much in weeks.   I don’t think we’ll see much action tomorrow, but by mid/late March we’ll know the fate of the market.  

[hornbri 1,400]

2 hours ago, Blotto said:

This result was one of the biggest no brainers in recent memory. What remains to be seen is how this will affect the stock price, and more importantly (for me anyway) the price on April puts with a 300 strike. I'm down about 25% since I purchased them, so if this news doesnt turn that trade around, I f'n give up.

The futures market is not indicating a big swing on this news. 

I suppose we will know in the morning. 

[Blotto 23,560]

9 minutes ago, hornbri said:

The futures market is not indicating a big swing on this news. 

I suppose we will know in the morning. 

I'm gotta believe more and more companies will start releasing similar updates over the next few weeks now that Apple greased the skids a bit. . But with the Fed and China ready to throw god knows how much money at the markets, who knows how it will all play out. Buying puts out to April gives me some time for Apple to come off of its all-time high, which it should based on how much exposure they have to China. 

Counterpoint: Stonks only go up these days...I'm probably fucked.

 

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

If this goes on for another month, it'll completely ruin some Q4 P&L's.  The toy and electronic products for Christmas should be produced in the next month or so and if they aren't, lead time is too short.  (On this subject, I'm pre-med.)

This hasn't remotely been priced into the market.  

[Tailgate 3,022]

Pretty large position in AAPL. Been through this before....just have the time to watch the market more than I did when I was in the rat race in my 20s and 30s. These are the times you turn the computer and CNBC off and catch up on other things. 
 

“Apple is fundamentally strong, and this disruption to our business is only temporary,” the company said.

[Dbeasy 15,074]

The counter argument is that while this virus should only cause a temporary issue, because the fed is already at the lowest interest rates and pumping money into the economy, it could spiral into something deep and bad from which we can’t easily recover. That’s the systematic risk we have right now.

[Tailgate 3,022]

There’s no doubt that this bull market has run a long, long time and we are due for a pull back. But, no matter how long, or how bad....history shows us what happens over the very long haul.

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

29 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

There’s no doubt that this bull market has run a long, long time and we are due for a pull back. But, no matter how long, or how bad....history shows us what happens over the very long haul.

We're all dead?

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

The counter argument is that while this virus should only cause a temporary issue, because the fed is already at the lowest interest rates and pumping money into the economy, it could spiral into something deep and bad from which we can’t easily recover. That’s the systematic risk we have right now.

The US has some of the highest interest rates of all developed countries, and will cut more and expand the balanced sheet more before this goes in the shitter

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

4 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

The US has some of the highest interest rates of all developed countries, and will cut more and expand the balanced sheet more before this goes in the shitter

We have the highest growth rates and highest employment levels as well. Europe's economy is shrinking, their low rates are a symptom of their decline.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

With all that said, I’m aware that the stock market has detached from the real economy. I’m just saying that I don’t believe the party is close to ending. Bad news will just give the Fed more reason to pump liquidity, hell they already announced that they will begin buying longer duration bonds before this crisis.

[atomheartbevo 89,751]

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

I'm gotta believe more and more companies will start releasing similar updates over the next few weeks now that Apple greased the skids a bit. . But with the Fed and China ready to throw god knows how much money at the markets, who knows how it will all play out. Buying puts out to April gives me some time for Apple to come off of its all-time high, which it should based on how much exposure they have to China. 

Counterpoint: Stonks only go up these days...I'm probably fucked.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-shipping-nears-a-standstill-amid-coronavirus-disruption-11581699854

Quote

China’s Shipping Nears a Standstill Amid Coronavirus Disruption

Executives say large container ships are leaving Chinese ports as little as 10% full, and sailings are being canceled as carriers brace for a financial retreat

Quote

Shipping volumes out of China are plummeting as the impact of the coronavirus outbreak takes a deeper toll on industrial production, and ocean carriers are bracing for financial blows from the diminished output.

“Substantially less cargo is being moved between China and the rest of the world” said Lars Jensen, head of Denmark-based maritime research group Sea-Intelligence. “Last week we had an additional 30 sailings canceled, with 23 across the Pacific and the rest to Europe.”

Quote

Sea-Intelligence said in a report this week that more than 350,000 containers have been removed from global trade since the outbreak of the virus led China to impose large travel restrictions at the end of the country’s Lunar New Year holiday break.

 

[Blotto 23,560]

This post from stocktwits cracked me up.

[troph 24,891]

We're all dead?

Silly. She won’t get pregnant if you pull out in time. Duh.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

Western consumers still have money in their pockets to spend even if Apple has zero iPhones. What consumer products or companies can benefit from a potential shut/slow down of China/Asian manufacturing.

[Trey3216 15,350]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Western consumers still have money in their pockets to spend even if Apple has zero iPhones. What consumer products or companies can benefit from a potential shut/slow down of China/Asian manufacturing.

Maybe the RV/camper market?  Most all of them built here, lots of people will restrict vacations to continental.  

[Tailgate 3,022]

Well, there’s obviously no corona virus in SPCE 🚀

[bernorange 8,362]

It occurred to me that we are witnessing a real life example of the effects of a nation "going Galt".  Pretty much all economic activity in China has ground to a halt.

~~~

Their banking system is stressed now as companies are missing loan payments and small banks are/should be failing.  Their central bank is relaxing/suspending rules on debts to try and salve the situation, but how long can it sustain that before they have a real crisis?

[atomheartbevo 89,751]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-jobs/china-races-to-contain-job-losses-as-coronavirus-batters-economy-idUSKBN20C18F

Long article.  Things going to get interesting.  Lot of American consumers will soon discover just how much of their stuff is made in China.  

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-jobs/china-races-to-contain-job-losses-as-coronavirus-batters-economy-idUSKBN20C18F

Long article.  Things going to get interesting.  Lot of American consumers will soon discover just how much of their stuff is made in China.  

In categories like toys and electronics, it’s essentially 100%.  Christmas season gonna be tough this year.

[bernorange 8,362]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

..  Lot of American consumers will soon discover just how much of their stuff is made in China.  

 

[Hmbre97 6,325]

I really don't understand what is going on with SPCE. I bitched out and didn't buy more calls Friday afternoon worried about a pullback after the long weekend. They're only up like 250% at the moment 😭

[Anastasis 23,480]

SPCE train choo choo. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

At some point, you have to figure that China will have to loosen the quarantines even if that potentially gets more people sick and ultimately die. I know that's harsh but the entire world can't stay home indefinitely.

But perhaps they're trying to gather more info on understanding on how it's passed on, how best for people to protect themselves and if any medicine/vaccines are effective.

[Continental Op 3,934]

It occurred to me that we are witnessing a real life example of the effects of a nation "going Galt".  Pretty much all economic activity in China has ground to a halt.
~~~
Their banking system is stressed now as companies are missing loan payments and small banks are/should be failing.  Their central bank is relaxing/suspending rules on debts to try and salve the situation, but how long can it sustain that before they have a real crisis?

Maybe China has their own Jimmy Stewart and George Bairey will be cool and let everyone slide a little bit.

[Not a cat 5,660]

2 hours ago, Continental Op said:

Maybe China has their own Jimmy Stewart and George Bairey will be cool and let everyone slide a little bit.

This ain't Bedford Farrs.

[workswithseed 2,109]

5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

SPCE train choo choo. 

What a day for it, fell all the way back down. 

[hornbri 1,400]

23 hours ago, Blotto said:

This result was one of the biggest no brainers in recent memory. What remains to be seen is how this will affect the stock price, and more importantly (for me anyway) the price on April puts with a 300 strike. I'm down about 25% since I purchased them, so if this news doesnt turn that trade around, I f'n give up.

I guess the trade got a little bit better for you? 

[Blotto 23,560]

4 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I guess the trade got a little bit better for you? 

Meh....basically back to my average cost. Either this market is extremely retarded or I am, and I'm beginning to suspect it's the latter. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

wewillrebuild.jpg

[TexanTraveling 42]

On 2/17/2020 at 4:19 PM, Hefeweizen said:

Until it isn’t.  Then the bottom falls out.  I moved half my money to money market last week.  I’m spooked by the potential fallout here.

pussy

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

44 minutes ago, TexanTraveling said:

pussy

Lol you dripping vagina.

[TexanTraveling 42]

34 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Lol you dripping vagina.

😘

[Colonel Sanders 1,358]

3 hours ago, Blotto said:

Meh....basically back to my average cost. Either this market is extremely retarded or I am, and I'm beginning to suspect it's the latter. 

Yeah, I don't get what is going on.  How is fucking Carnival Cruise Lines up 3/4 of a percent today?  It's up in premarket too.  Apple barely lost anything which seems about right.  iPhones aren't a big part of their business model.  

Edited February 19, 2020 by Colonel Sanders

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Yellen did suggest years ago there will never be another financial crisis in our lifetimes. And the Fed's tool box has expanded. I just don't know how the political fight over the Fed right now affects that equation. The Fed appears to be content with the status quo.

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

11 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Yeah, I don't get what is going on.  How is fucking Carnival Cruise Lines up 3/4 of a percent today?  It's up in premarket too.  Apple barely lost anything which seems about right.  iPhones aren't a big part of their business model.  

WMT also had a lackluster Q4 and they were up and they might have as big of an exposure to anyone in regards to China for the rest of the year.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

WMT also had a lackluster Q4 and they were up and they might have as big of an exposure to anyone in regards to China for the rest of the year.

Longer term investors might look at China as eventually coming out of the Coronavirus epidemic while the rest of the world gets hit. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Longer term investors might look at China as eventually coming out of the Coronavirus epidemic while the rest of the world gets hit. 

Maybe.  We’ll know a lot more in the next 30 days.  

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

5 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

Yellen did suggest years ago there will never be another financial crisis in our lifetimes. And the Fed's tool box has expanded. I just don't know how the political fight over the Fed right now affects that equation. The Fed appears to be content with the status quo.

She also suggested that the Fed could buy stocks and corporate debt if things start to turn.  Obviously they don't have the power to today, but laws change in a crisis.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-purchases-idUSKCN11Z2WI