Markets still falling like whoa

[Blotto 23730]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Longer term investors might look at China as eventually coming out of the Coronavirus epidemic while the rest of the world gets hit. 

Their issues will just shift from a supply problem to a demand problem. Either way it's problematic for them, no?

[bernorange 8377]

I think most people are looking at China and pondering the market impact on the economy with respect to supply chains, trade and equities, but I'm really starting to think there may be a bigger impact in a more fundamental way with respect to a Chinese banking crisis and a resultant Chinese currency crisis.

Quote

A growing number of China’s private companies have cut wages, delayed paychecks or stopped paying staff completely, saying that the economic toll of the coronavirus has left them unable to cover their labor costs.
...
Across China, companies are telling workers that there’s no money for them -- or that they shouldn’t have to pay full salaries to quarantined employees who don’t come to work. It’s too soon to say how many people have lost wages as a result of the outbreak, but in a survey of more than 9,500 workers by Chinese recruitment website Zhaopin, more than one-third said they were aware it was a possibility.

The salary freezes are further evidence of the economic hit to China’s volatile private sector -- the fastest growing part of the world’s second-biggest economy -- and among small firms especially. It also suggests the stress will extend beyond the health risks to the financial pain that comes with job cuts and salary instability. Unsurprisingly, hiring has all but ground to a halt: Zhaopin estimates the number of job resumes submitted in the first week after the January outbreak was down 83% from a year earlier.“The coronavirus may hit Chinese consumption harder than SARS 17 years ago,” said Chang Shu, Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg Intelligence. “And SARS walloped consumption.”

By law, companies have to comply with a full pay cycle in February before cutting wages to the minimum, said Edgar Choi, author of “Commercial Law in a Minute” and host of a legal-advice account on WeChat. For companies that aren’t making enough to cover payroll, it’s permissible to delay salaries, as long as staff get the money they’re owed eventually. Choi said he’s heard from thousands of foreign workers who say their payments have been cut in half this month or halted althogether. That, he said, is illegal. “A lot of these employees are foreigners, they don’t know Chinese,” he said. “Whatever their boss tells them, that’s it. It’s easy for them to get bullied. ”NIO Inc., an electric car-maker based in Shanghai, recently delayed paychecks by a week. The company’s chairman William Li also encouraged employees to accept restricted stock units in lieu of a cash bonus.

At Foxconn Technology Group’s Shenzhen factory, workers returning from the Lunar New Year break are quarantined in the dorms before they can return to work. They’re getting paid, but only about one-third of what they’d earn if they were working.Without full, regular paychecks and few places to spend them these days anyway, Chinese consumers could cut spending in some categories to zero, said Bloomberg’s Shu. And it may not bounce back: For example, she said, if you skip your daily latte for two months, you’re not likely to make up for those missed drinks later in the year.

With limited reserves and less by way of remote technologies, the smaller companies that underpin China’s vast private sector are particularly vulnerable. Among broader efforts to help firms stay afloat, policy makers have called on state-run banks to make loans at cheaper rates to small businesses in particular.

In the case of Pei Binfeng, co-founder of the Hangzhou coding and robotics academy, the outbreak forced them to suspend all in-person classes for students in kindergarten through grade 12. With the loss of revenue, the company will withhold 50% of salary for key executives and 30% for other employees until business resumes. “What we teach isn’t a must-have for a lot of parents, so expenses like this are usually the first to go when things get tough,” said Pei.
...

https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/chinese-companies-say-they-can-t-afford-to-pay-workers-right-now

Quote

... back in November, we reported that as part of a stress test conducted by China's central bank in the first half of 2019, 30 medium- and large-sized banks were tested; In the base-case scenario, assuming GDP growth dropped to 5.3% - nine out of 30 major banks failed and saw their capital adequacy ratio drop to 13.47% from 14.43%. In the worst-case scenario, assuming GDP growth dropped to 4.15%, some 2% below the latest official GDP print, more than half of China's banks, or 17 out of the 30 major banks failed the test. ...

... with GDP set to print negative if Goldman is right (with risk clearly to the downside as China's economy remains completely paralyzed), every single Chinese bank is set to fail a "hypothetical" stress test, and the immediate result is an exponential surge in bad debt. The result, as we discussed in detail last week, is that the bad loan ratio at the nation's 30 biggest banks would soar at least five-fold, and potentially far, far more, flooding the country with trillions in non-performing loans, and unleashing a tsunami of bank defaults.
...

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-central-bank-orders-lenders-tolerate-higher-bad-debt-levels-avoid-financial

ZH gonna ZH, so take the hyperbole with a grain of salt, but the issue at hand remains.  How much stress can the Chinese banking sector handle before systemic issues require drastic measures?

[Continental Op 3934]

Bern sees imminent disaster? No wai!

[atomheartbevo 90119]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Maybe.  We’ll know a lot more in the next 30 days.  

They are building more hospitals.  Don’t think it will take that long to figure things out.  

[Bosco 56]

14 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

Bern sees imminent disaster? No wai!

One of these hundreds of times, he will be right.  Just wait.

Also it takes a lot of chutzpah for him to call out someone else's hyperbole.

Edited February 19, 2020 by Bosco

[Aqua Buddha 14662]

China is also a slowly smoldering demographic collapse so there’s that.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13562]

Blue Apron about to die.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/investing/blue-apron-earnings/index.html

Believe it's down 97% since its IPO. The startup model to sell your product well below cost is a loser especially if you have competitors doing the same. You're only teaching your customers to expect unsustainable pricing. And I imagine many people cancel the service once they are out of the promo period.

I get why the VC investors do it because they want to purchase customers long enough to cash out leaving the Wall St. investor with nothing.

On the flip side, Amazon had losses for years but it didn't seem as drastic as some recent startups.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13562]

2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Their issues will just shift from a supply problem to a demand problem. Either way it's problematic for them, no?

I think it's problematic for everyone. I don't see how we don't think this won't eventually envelope the world. It's sad but I don't think we can just stay indoors.

Hopefully we can delay the spread enough to discover the best treatment or vaccines but I don't think that is the case.

[Blotto 23730]

lulz

Nothing to see here. Apple admits they will miss numbers, gave no indication by how much, and nobody really knows wtf is going on in China.....back to basically all-time highs. SPY right along with it. I guess that's  what happens when the world is awash in money and yield exists nowhere except the market. Markets give no fucks....crazy shit.

[hornbri 1468]

14 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Yeah, I don't get what is going on.  How is fucking Carnival Cruise Lines up 3/4 of a percent today?  It's up in premarket too.  Apple barely lost anything which seems about right.  iPhones aren't a big part of their business model.  

IMO it is because this thinking is based on things that obviously should happen. i.e Stocks should go down because Chinese manufacturing is going to slow down. When the reality is anything that is obvious was priced in by the trading algorithms weeks ago. Any news the average consumer has is already priced in. That is why the market is not behaving the way you expect. 

Edited February 19, 2020 by hornbri

[Tailgate 3027]

@workswithseed I owe you lunch or beers at some point for the SPCE tip. I will hold this long like everything else.

Also, NVDA has been another rock in my portfolio...these guys are leading the way in chip technology. I know AMD is "back" but NVDA is a monster.

My current top three never sell:

AAPL

AMZN

NVDA

 

[Blotto 23730]

14 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

@workswithseed I owe you lunch or beers at some point for the SPCE tip. I will hold this long like everything else.

Also, NVDA has been another rock in my portfolio...these guys are leading the way in chip technology. I know AMD is "back" but NVDA is a monster.

My current top three never sell:

AAPL

AMZN

NVDA

 

Never is a dangerous word in investing. A lot can change in a few years. GE was AAPL 25 years ago when I went to work there out of UT. It was an earnings juggernaut, people couldnt stop sucking Welch's cock. Things change. They will change at AAPL as well. 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-history-of-the-largest-companies-by-market-cap-1999-today/

[Nice Guy Eddie 13562]

Taking profit on a rising stock seems like the best strategy to me since you have zero idea of the future. It doesn't mean you have to sell all of it.

[Tailgate 3027]

Long, long hold may have been a better term than never...but my kids will ikely be selling these when the time comes, not me. They are also inside of an IRA that was/is my "play" account....just happened to grow more than expected over the years.

The vast majority of my positions are at Vanguard in a well balanced portfolio of their funds.

Edited February 19, 2020 by Tailgate

[workswithseed 2143]

@Tailgate yeah, coming to Portland any time soon? 

 

[Tailgate 3027]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

@Tailgate yeah, coming to Portland any time soon? 

 

Love that town and I do have some business partners there...will keep you posted!

 

Also, let me know if you hit ATX anytime soon or for any games. I will be at OU and LSU this season for away games.

Edited February 19, 2020 by Tailgate

[elfenix 34388]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Blue Apron about to die.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/18/investing/blue-apron-earnings/index.html

Believe it's down 97% since its IPO. The startup model to sell your product well below cost is a loser especially if you have competitors doing the same. You're only teaching your customers to expect unsustainable pricing. And I imagine many people cancel the service once they are out of the promo period.

[Anastasis 23514]

On 2/18/2020 at 3:10 PM, workswithseed said:

What a day for it, fell all the way back down. 

 

[atomheartbevo 90119]

3 hours ago, Tailgate said:

@workswithseed I owe you lunch or beers at some point for the SPCE tip. I will hold this long like everything else.

Also, NVDA has been another rock in my portfolio...these guys are leading the way in chip technology. I know AMD is "back" but NVDA is a monster.

My current top three never sell:

AAPL

AMZN

NVDA

 

Intel is pumping a lot of money into graphics.  They may not get to Nvidia’s level anytime soon, but they could easily get to “good enough for a lot of people playing Fortnite” (or whatever is popular at the moment).   That could hurt Nvidia’s lesser offerings a lot.  

[Tailgate 3027]

For the 12th consecutive year, NVIDIA Quadro GPUs have powered the stunning visuals behind every Academy Award nominee for Best Visual Effects.

The red carpet will roll out for the five VFX-nominated films at the 92nd annual Academy Awards on Sunday, Feb. 9. They are:

• Avengers: Endgame
• The Irishman
• The Lion King
• 1917
• Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

For over a decade, Quadro has been behind award-winning graphics in films, bringing the latest advancements in visual effects to studios across the industry.

Avengers: Endgame amazed audiences with over 2,500 stunning visual effects shots, breaking box office records along the way.

The visual effects development team at Digital Domain brought innovation to the film like never before, using custom machine learning technology running on NVIDIA Quadro GPUs to animate Josh Brolin’s performance on Marvel’s infamous villain, Thanos.

“For Digital Domain’s work on Avengers: Endgame, we built a machine learning system that understood Josh Brolin’s facial movements, and we taught the system how to transfer Josh to Thanos’ face,” said Darren Hendler, head of Digital Humans at Digital Domain. “Key to this process were immediate realistic rendered previews of the characters’ emotional performances, which was made possible using NVIDIA GPU technology. We now use NVIDIA RTX technology to drive all of our real-time ray-traced digital human projects.”

The innovators at Industrial Light & Magic also gave machine learning a starring role in Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. The markerless de-aging of Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci enabled the film to tell a story that spanned decades while allowing the actors to perform without facial markers or helmet cams.

With the new NVIDIA Quadro RTX GPUs, artists and studios can take advantage of the latest AI-driven tools and techniques. Quadro RTX accelerates many custom AI-based tools and commercial creative applications from companies like Adobe, Autodesk, Blackmagic Design and more, so professionals can take visual effects to the next level with enhanced capabilities.

Disney’s visually stunning remake of The Lion King also broke new ground by transporting live-action crews to the CG environment in virtual reality. Through the use of Quadro GPUs, VFX supervisor Rob Legato and virtual production supervisor Ben Grossmann brought traditional filmmaking techniques in virtual worlds that gave us the most cinematic CG movie ever created.

“Rendering is the killer of fast turnaround and iterative creativity. You really need global illumination and ray tracing for real-time feedback and micro adjustments, just like on a live action film stage, and that’s what the NVIDIA Quadro graphics cards give you,” said Robert Legato, VFX supervisor on The Lion King.

Presenting a heart-pounding, up close and personal view of World War I, 1917 features a single-shot perspective that follows the mission of two soldiers delivering an important message to the front line. MPC used NVIDIA GPUs to create what looks like the longest single visual effects shot ever put on the big screen.

Bringing an epic saga to a close, Lucasfilm’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker gave audiences iconic lightsaber duels, monumental starship battles, and a new era of heroes and villains. Industrial Light & Magic used NVIDIA GPUs to beautifully blend VFX with practical effects, creating some of the most incredible worlds and battles ever seen in film.

While only one visual effects team will take to the podium to accept an Oscar, thousands of artists around the world are bringing new worlds and characters to life every day. From powering creative applications to enabling new AI techniques, NVIDIA RTX accelerates the workstations and servers the film industry is using to define the future of visual computing.

NVIDIA engineering is also no stranger to Academy Awards — seven NVIDIANs are past recipients of Sci-Tech Awards.

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2020/02/05/quadro-oscar-vfx/
 

 

[52-80 19283]

thnx 4 the press release

[atomheartbevo 90119]

This is why Tim Cook is running things.  

https://www.laptopmag.com/news/apple-moving-ipad-production-out-of-china-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak

Quote

The Wuhan coronavirus is causing a rumble in the tech world and reportedly shaking up Apple's production plans.

Taiwan News (via 9to5Mac), citing Taiwanese tech site DigiTimes, reports that Apple is relocating some of its production for the forthcoming iPad Pro, AirPods, and Apple Watch from China to Taiwan.

"Apple is trying to diversify its supply chain geographically due to the spread of the virus, which has seriously affected the production of Apple products in the communist country," Taiwan News wrote.

 

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

On 2/5/2020 at 4:35 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

time for me to start putting money somewhere.  my current plan is to just open a vanguard account and buy some ETFs that track the indexes and start my learning that way.  good idea?

don't want to flash my wad, but since this post, *somebody* is sitting on an extra $39.80.

[atomheartbevo 90119]

Quote

Stocks keep reaching record highs. Goldman Sachs is worried that leaves investors vulnerable to surprises.

The investment bank told clients this week that a near-term correction, in which the market slides at least 10% from a recent peak, "is looking much more probable."

The thinking: Equity markets look "increasingly exposed" to disappointing earnings growth due to the new coronavirus outbreak, Goldman warns.

The number of companies that have lowered their guidance on profits for the first quarter is still in line with past years. But Apple's surprise update this week that it wouldn't hit its revenue target has put investors on edge.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/20/investing/goldman-sachs-stocks/index.html

[BLKNSTY 289]

Pretty substantial bearish reversal here, SPCE went from $42 to $31 in just an hour. Testing 5-10% down across the board. Even Tesla.

 

What’s the catalyst? Coronavirus killing two on that death cruise? Federal REPO purchase drawback? Fed hinting at holding rates? Defense Dept. SSN hacking? Dem debates?

 

Buy the dip? Load up on some SPCE weekly call lottos?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Anastasis 23514]

[JesusSweatDuck 17840]

5 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

Pretty substantial bearish reversal here, SPCE went from $42 to $31 in just an hour. Testing 5-10% down across the board. Even Tesla.

 

What’s the catalyst? Coronavirus killing two on that death cruise? Federal REPO purchase drawback? Fed hinting at holding rates? Defense Dept. SSN hacking? Dem debates?

 

Buy the dip? Load up on some SPCE weekly call lottos?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Coronavirus spreading now in South Korea.  I'm guessing this is a big part of it.

[atomheartbevo 90119]

19 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Coronavirus spreading now in South Korea.  I'm guessing this is a big part of it.

And Iran.  They are freaking out.   If it gets going in the ME, it will be hard to contain.  

[workswithseed 2143]

37 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

Pretty substantial bearish reversal here, SPCE went from $42 to $31 in just an hour. Testing 5-10% down across the board. Even Tesla.

 

What’s the catalyst? Coronavirus killing two on that death cruise? Federal REPO purchase drawback? Fed hinting at holding rates? Defense Dept. SSN hacking? Dem debates?

 

Buy the dip? Load up on some SPCE weekly call lottos?

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Buy the dip apparently.

[hopkinsnhorns 533]

Really tempted to divest nearly all of my stocks and set it in a money market until the impending correction.  I can't believe the economic situation is a rosy as the market would have you believe, even without a potential pandemic.

[washparkhorn 9939]

On 2/19/2020 at 5:43 AM, Rusty Shackelford said:

She also suggested that the Fed could buy stocks and corporate debt if things start to turn.  Obviously they don't have the power to today, but laws change in a crisis.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen-purchases-idUSKCN11Z2WI

Thank you.

The Fed indicates they have additional tools to avoid another financial crisis (i.e., repeat of the 2008 Great Recession). There is a caveat - the Fed has not shown much appetite to intervene in an election year. 

https://www.gailfosler.com/federal-reserve-presidential-election-cycle

 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

I'll stay bullish as long as the Fed keep growing the balance sheet.  I believe it boosts the stock market more than rate cuts anyway. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

1 hour ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

I'll stay bullish as long as the Fed keep growing the balance sheet.  I believe it boosts the stock market more than rate cuts anyway. 

Agree. And Fed policy in an election year has typically been to stay the course and wait for the political decision. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

14 hours ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

Coronavirus spreading now in South Korea.  I'm guessing this is a big part of it.

Live video from Korea: 

 

[Colonel Sanders 1387]

 

My prediction for todsy.

[52-80 19283]

ya'll should trade in Corona Coin

 

As the name suggests, the coin gains its value by tracking the number of people dying from the CoronaVirus, which emerged from Wuhan Province in Chin a and has so far killed over 2,236 people.

Many users across Twitter and Reddit castigate the coin founders for their distaste but experts may find true value in the coin’s value proposition.

The coin’s website, coronatoken.org, states that the coin has three main value propositions namely:

• “Its Deflationary, Tokens are burned every 48 hours based on the number of INFECTED + FATALITIES reported on TheWuhanVirus.com.
• Its for charity, CoronaToken benefits COVID-19 relief efforts! We are going to donate 20% of the total supply of CoronaToken to the Red Cross!
• Its Fun, CoronaToken holders can play a fun game against other players to try and win more CoronaToken! This is coming soon, so keep an eye on our Discord for updates!”

[Tailgate 3027]

How is this company still in business? I worked there in package pick-up in high school in the 80’s and it was already turning to shit.

And more importantly why would you keep pumping money into it? Where is the return? Do they own any of their real estate?




U.S. department store operator Sears has reached a deal for a fresh financial lifeline totaling roughly $100 million from hedge fund Brigade Capital Management, as it tries to stabilize after bankruptcy, people familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

Sears’ billionaire owner Eddie Lampert rescued the retailer from liquidation in a $5.2 billion takeover during bankruptcy proceedings a year ago. The company’s unabated need for new funding underscores Lampert’s challenges in turning it around.

Sears reached an agreement with Brigade for the $100 million financing in recent weeks, according to the sources, who spoke on the condition they not be identified because the negotiations were confidential. Lampert has also bankrolled Sears in recent months, the sources added, without disclosing the total amount of funding he provided.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/sears-snags-new-financial-lifeline-as-losses-continue-sources-say.html

[Okie State 3867]

Once they sold off Craftsman I can't think of a single reason to visit a Sears.

[Parliament 14401]

Why in God's creation would you lend money to Sears.

[Homercles 10206]

1 hour ago, Okie State said:

Once they sold off Craftsman I can't think of a single reason to visit a Sears.

This.  As a regular watcher of AvE on YouTube (great channel to sub btw), it’s eye-opening to hear how all these brands with great history are owned by a handful of conglomerates and manufactured in the same places.  Interesting to see his tear downs reveal the gradual decline in quality and surprising shortcuts taken in brands even like snapon.  
 

Then again seeing the massive piles of cash burned to build the pointless Juicero (worth a watch) was hilarious...that thing easily cost a grand just to squeeze a packet and will live forever.  

[atomheartbevo 90119]

So the stock market finally realized coronavirus is sticking around.  

On a related note, with shipments from China slowing/stopping, and given Fry’s supply issues, I’m guessing they are not going to survive this year.  

[atomheartbevo 90119]

This was posted in the coronavirus thread, and also mentioned that the Chinese have changed how they count cases twice in 24 hours, and three times in 8 days. 

Something is definitely up.   They aren’t getting back to normal anytime soon.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19285]

6 hours ago, 52-80 said:

ya'll should trade in Corona Coin

 

As the name suggests, the coin gains its value by tracking the number of people dying from the CoronaVirus, which emerged from Wuhan Province in Chin a and has so far killed over 2,236 people.

Many users across Twitter and Reddit castigate the coin founders for their distaste but experts may find true value in the coin’s value proposition.

The coin’s website, coronatoken.org, states that the coin has three main value propositions namely:

• “Its Deflationary, Tokens are burned every 48 hours based on the number of INFECTED + FATALITIES reported on TheWuhanVirus.com.
• Its for charity, CoronaToken benefits COVID-19 relief efforts! We are going to donate 20% of the total supply of CoronaToken to the Red Cross!
• Its Fun, CoronaToken holders can play a fun game against other players to try and win more CoronaToken! This is coming soon, so keep an eye on our Discord for updates!”

How can this be considered speculating (no way I would sully the word investing with this horseshit) and not flat out gambling?

[Blotto 23730]

11 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How can this be considered speculating (no way I would sully the word investing with this horseshit) and not flat out gambling?

Have you been following SPCE? A company with effectively zero revenues and a fucktarded* market cap approaching 10 billion at times this week? Daily volumes as high as 134 million shares on no news (approx 200 million outstanding shares).Gamble is gamble.

* I'm guilty of dabbling in SPCE calls earlier in the week.....because, well, I like a good fucktarded gamble every now and again.

[jimmyjazz 46504]

5 hours ago, Okie State said:

Once they sold off Craftsman I can't think of a single reason to visit a Sears.

I get $0.15 per gallon back in points from my Gas Buddy card.  Those points are only redeemable at Sears or K-Mart, neither of which exist in Austin any more.  So, I mail order stuff like basic clothing needs for me or the kids, or small kitchen appliances, etc.  

Since I end up paying for shipping out of pocket, I should probably look for a better gas card.  Still, I can usually get at least $0.10 per gallon below CostCo's fuel prices at other local stations, so it's not a complete waste.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Why is the dollar crashing today?  Just overheated (2.5 yr high) or should we expect long term trend down?

Edited February 21, 2020 by Rusty Shackelford

[Anastasis 23514]

Any particular contacts and strikes you guys are buying SPY puts at?

[4thgenhorn 39]

I’ve liquidated a bit more today...highest percent in cash I’ve ever had in my life. Also rebalanced 401k to 15% bonds from 5%. 
 

My timing is almost always terrible, so feel free to take the other side of the trade. I don’t have any quantitative reasons other than things have been outstanding last 4 months...by taking some off I can let the rest ride. 
 

Also today is second down day in increasing volume...sometimes that’s start of a correction...sometimes it’s a buying opportunity. Flip a coin. The correct decision for today will be obvious in six months. 

[Skipper 6325]

16 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

I’ve liquidated a bit more today...highest percent in cash I’ve ever had in my life. 
 

Same.  I did earlier this week and doubled down today.

[Blotto 23730]

Will be interesting to see if there's a mad rush for the exits before the Friday close.