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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5357

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I feel sort of bad for calling my shot.  I moved heavily into cash two weeks ago and will wait until everything settles down.  I am not trying to time perfectly but the market was so frothy already I was suspicious.

 

 My play account took it in the ass today.  Down over 10 percent.  That’s where I do my Wall Street bets action.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Hmbre97

Hmbre97 6333

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Posted
2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

The over-utilization of insurance is what increased the cost and complexity of care.  Insurance was never meant to cover every PCP visit, pay for basic prescriptions, going to the emergency room when you have the flu, and what not.  The system being bloated at the front end really destroyed the level of care ladder, and spiraled the costs of both care and insurance itself out of control.  

IMO, it will only get worse under 'medicare-for-all' once people think going to the doctor is "free" unless penalties or restrictions are put in place. I had a family member who is a poor that was on medicare while pregnant and would go to the ER every couple weeks with the excuse "I haven't felt the baby kick in a few days" so she could get free sonogram photos :/

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Captainant

Captainant 27977

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1 hour ago, Hmbre97 said:

IMO, it will only get worse under 'medicare-for-all' once people think going to the doctor is "free" unless penalties or restrictions are put in place. I had a family member who is a poor that was on medicare while pregnant and would go to the ER every couple weeks with the excuse "I haven't felt the baby kick in a few days" so she could get free sonogram photos :/

I too enjoy corner-case straw man fallacies. IDK about your experiences, but private insurance isn't exactly what you want, when you want it for family members that require long-term care for a degenerative disease. Hell, you could even come to the conclusion that were actively trying to find ways to avoid paying for things which results in denial of care and worsening of a condition as a result. But this ain't the thread for that.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23514

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2 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

IMO, it will only get worse under 'medicare-for-all' once people think going to the doctor is "free" unless penalties or restrictions are put in place. I had a family member who is a poor that was on medicare while pregnant and would go to the ER every couple weeks with the excuse "I haven't felt the baby kick in a few days" so she could get free sonogram photos :/

In whatever fantasy world where Bernie's M4A actually is implemented, it will have significant utilization management policies. Much like the current Medicare program. And not dissimilar in any sense from the utilization management implemented by private insurance. They will have a closed formulary, which means they will restrict access to many medication treatments. They will require prior authorization and step therapy and a mountain of administrative paper work, just like both Medicare and private insurance does today. Basically every abrasion point will remain. The primary distinction will be that the system will be run by a government bureaucracy that will provide a greater leverage point for price negotiations with pharma and providers and hospitals.  For better and worse. ER utilization is more closely related to health belief and behavior sets that coverage will not change, so that cost trend won't really bend based on utilization. ACA demonstrated that. Quality measures and satisfaction with care will likely go down. The long term impacts of a 8-10% haircut in provider and facility reimbursements are not fully known, we'll see what happens.

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23514

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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

IDK about your experiences, but private insurance isn't exactly what you want, when you want it for family members that require long-term care for a degenerative disease.

What are the substantive differences between private insurance and Medicare in terms of long-term care for degenerative diseases today?

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3302

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since brexit there have been 12 instances where there's been a steep decline on a friday followed by a large gapdown (over 1%) on a monday.  11 of the 12 times there has been a significant bounce on tuesday (over .5% correction).  only twice did the markets proceed to put in a new low within the next week.

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BLKNSTY

BLKNSTY 289

Posted
Posted
since brexit there have been 12 instances where there's been a steep decline on a friday followed by a large gapdown (over 1%) on a monday.  11 of the 12 times there has been a significant bounce on tuesday (over .5% correction).  only twice did the markets proceed to put in a new low within the next week.

 

Yeah, so I think we’re looking at one of those new lows within the next week scenarios. Looks like some sizeable put buying.

 

Anyone familiar with Tesla’s resistance levels? Would love to pick up some shares in the $600 range.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15380

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5 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

 

Yeah, so I think we’re looking at one of those new lows within the next week scenarios. Looks like some sizeable put buying.

 

Anyone familiar with Tesla’s resistance levels? Would love to pick up some shares in the $600 range.

Some support right here at the 800 level, then again at 745ish level, then nothing really to stop it down to 560.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90058

Posted
Posted
Just now, Incredulity said:

what did we find out in the last 20min?

Hey, it only dropped 300 points!  Now that the Iranian government has infected itself, and more cases are being found around the Persian Gulf, I’m sure that will do wonders for oil prices.   3M should be doing much better.   

Just wait until info from the Senate hearing leaks out.  

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Blotto

Blotto 23709

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Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Hey, it only dropped 300 points!  Now that the Iranian government has infected itself, and more cases are being found around the Persian Gulf, I’m sure that will do wonders for oil prices.   3M should be doing much better.   

Just wait until info from the Senate hearing leaks out.  

3M is a pretty diversified company. The healthcare business is less than 20% of their overall revenue. I suspect a global downturn in the economy would impact their overall revenue much more than an increase in healthcare sales could offset, no? How much of their $32 billion in sales is from masks/respirators?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90058

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5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

3M is a pretty diversified company. The healthcare business is less than 20% of their overall revenue. I suspect a global downturn in the economy would impact their overall revenue much more than an increase in healthcare sales could offset, no? How much of their $32 billion in sales is from masks/respirators?

Think PPE.  More than just masks.   Could be a massive boost as this keeps getting worse.   You’re right, they are very diversified.  

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hornhorn

hornhorn 100

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Posted
On 1/11/2020 at 8:34 PM, jimmyjazz said:

VIX options don't really work that way.  Held to expiry, they do, but in the meantime, what you think should be a win is a loss.

 

On 1/12/2020 at 1:50 AM, hornhorn said:

Uh no they work exactly as I said they do. VIX closed at 12.56 on Friday, a 12 handle is one of the lowest points it has been since early 2019. In the last six months it has been as high as 23. I'm aware that it has hit 11 something as well but this is still pretty low. 

A contract for 17 call that expire in June 17 2020 is going for 2.55, let's say you buy 100 contracts: 10,000 X 2.55= 25,500. This is what you'll spend. 

A contract for 17 put that expire on June 17 2020 is going for 2.30, let's say you sold 100 contracts: 10,000 X 2.30= 23,000 This is what you'll receive. 

Net you spent $2,500. My bet is that VIX will spike up over 20 within the next few months at the very least, I'll remind you when it does and where these bets end up. Oh btw, it doesn't have to hit that high to make money. VIX can go to 15 next Friday and these trades make a great return.

Why don't we wait until May and see where this ends up. Cool? 

So those same VIX calls at 17 strike you bought, today are worth $3.5 X 10,000 = $35,000

Those same puts at 17 strike today that you sold, are worth $1.7 X 10,000 = $17,000

You sell those calls and buy back those puts.

$35,000 - $17,000 = $18,000

At its peak that $2,500 is worth $18,000 in less than 2 months. 

This is why VIX works as a hedge. 

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hopkinsnhorns

hopkinsnhorns 533

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

I feel sort of bad for calling my shot.  I moved heavily into cash two weeks ago and will wait until everything settles down.  I am not trying to time perfectly but the market was so frothy already I was suspicious.

 

 My play account took it in the ass today.  Down over 10 percent.  That’s where I do my Wall Street bets action.

I tried to sell off about 12% of my Blue Chip Growth mutual fund on Friday expecting the market to tumble.  Unfortunately, I didn't get my order in before EOB, so it wasn't filled until after Monday trading, so I only got about 95% of the value I expected.  I'm going to sit it out for a bit and try to jump back in on the eventual rebound.  I see it as setting some winnings aside at a craps table to ensure I come out ahead.

Edited by hopkinsnhorns
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5600

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Cheers for holding your ground on day 2. Looks like it paid off nicely. 

To be completely honest, I did get greedy and hedged my hedge by buying some near money call 2/26 calls thinking there could be a bounce at the open. The bounce wasn't big enough and I sold them in the first 20 minutes of trading and took a  50+% loss on $1,800. 
I might do the same today, after I lighten the first 2 tranches and see where the close looks like it is going - I'm playing with some house money, but I want to close out making more of it my money.

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