Markets still falling like whoa

[Party_Taco 3723]

Anything I can do with my 401k? I’m usually a set-and-forger dollar cost average guy, but we seem due for a proper correction here, so if there’s any safe harbor I’m interested...

[veritas aequitas 442]

4 minutes ago, Party_Taco said:

Anything I can do with my 401k? I’m usually a set-and-forger dollar cost average guy, but we seem due for a proper correction here, so if there’s any safe harbor I’m interested...

[ChiTownDoc 21144]

28 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Futures in the midst of taking another big dump. 

Not gonna buy more like I normally would but sure af not selling anything.  Not really a tough guy because I don't have the balls to log into any of my accounts.  And I'm actually waiting until tomorrow to drink.  Maybe I can just stick to drugs tonight.  

[fattyflattie 4639]

13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Not gonna buy more like I normally would but sure af not selling anything.  Not really a tough guy because I don't have the balls to log into any of my accounts.  And I'm actually waiting until tomorrow to drink.  Maybe I can just stick to drugs tonight.  

I checked on some of mine last night. Then drank heavily. It did not help. 

[Tailgate 3021]

Ya, I can’t look anymore. I’ve always been long and hold and never sold in dot com bust or 08. I was in the middle of my career and working 80+ hours a week and didn’t have time to watch the market daily. These days I have more time but I’m just going to hold to the “stay the course” mentality that kept me through those “crashes.”

As long as Coors Light stays in business, I’ll be ok.

[fattyflattie 4639]

6 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

As long as Coors Light stays in business, I’ll be ok.

Wasn’t a great day for them, either. 

[Sgt Hulk 13713]

Refusing to log in. Hell I refused to even look at the dow until tonight then I shit myself. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

One October Monday in 1989, the Dow dropped 20%. The market ended up for the calendar year. That was 30 years ago, and it dropped from ~2500 to ~2000. Meaning its increased 15x, which is >30x if you reinvested dividends.

[Celery Man 20933]

I mean if a bunch if you fuckers die maybe I can pick up some real estate. I need to go check on the shaggy guitar mafia tontine.

[52-80 19147]

This recent action just peeled away 6 months of gains.  It's only going to erode further.  I don't think you'll miss much on the sidelines, lagging the potential entry point by a few weeks.

 

Retirement account investments I shifted to fixed income.  Will move it back to other managed funds when ours pets' heads stop falling off.

Extra-retirement account id coincidentally liquidated recently.  With the cash there ill be more aggressive in jumping back into the market. 

 

[TexasGolf 4896]

IMO more selling today and flat next 30 ish days until more data hits.  Everything was red yesterday- gold, bitcoin, bonds, stocks so that is pure emotional selling  We are at 10 to 12% sell off similar to when h1n1 hit which killed 12k ish Americans and 200k globally in 09 and 10. 1 in 5 world was infected. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

Will investors want to stay in the market over the weekend when who knows what coronavirus news will come out?

[Rip76 4925]

Futures currently -850.

[Girdwood 118]

[SimonBolivar 10957]

This premarket is looking like a fun way to end the week.

[bernorange 8359]

So, some random tidbits from my morning travels to ponder...

Quote

Tanker charter rates have plunged more than 80% as the coronavirus outbreak slams the brakes on major economies, costing the sector hundreds of millions of dollars in lost business, a senior shipping industry official said.
...

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-shipping/tanker-rates-plunge-over-80-as-virus-torpedoes-shipping-idUSL5N2AQ5BZ

That seems like a massive disruption to manufacturing supply chains. In these days of "just in time" manufacturing processes, I wonder just how much feed material manufacturers sit on (local inventory) before they don't have the resources to continue manufacturing.

~~~

Starting around the 2:30 mark, former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher talks about the markets being dependent upon the Fed (and questioning whether a Fed bailout of the markets is appropriate or whether it's time for the markets to wean off of the Fed's tit):

~~~

Quote

Today, Vice President Mike Pence and Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar announced the addition of the following individuals to the President’s Coronavirus Task Force:

Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the Treasury

Dr. Jerome Adams, Surgeon General of the United States

Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council
...

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/vice-president-pence-secretary-azar-add-key-administration-officials-coronavirus-task-force/

Because the Secretary of the Treasury and Director of the Economic Council know best about disease control.  Are we going to adjust monetary policy as part of the coronavirus response?

Edited February 28, 2020 by bernorange

[Beau Vine 54208]

Things that piss me off:

^VIX (which you can't buy) is up 54% this morning.

^VIX3M (which you can't buy) is up 26%.

VIXM (which I own) is up 2.76%.

 

FUCK.  ME.

[Sbbruin 21830]

Well the fun continues....

[Guest Lobo]

The Private Equity market is here to receive you and your capital as the exodus continues.  

We offer 18% IRR net of fees and look forward serving you.  

Blessings...

[TonyTexas 10508]

24 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Things that piss me off:

^VIX (which you can't buy) is up 54% this morning.

^VIX3M (which you can't buy) is up 26%.

VIXM (which I own) is up 2.76%.

 

FUCK.  ME.

1. VIX ETFs don't reflect the VIX index 
   By any measure, VIX futures indexes—and therefore VIX ETFs—do a lousy job emulating the VIX index. The VIX index is truly uninvestable, and over periods of a month or a year, the return pattern of VIX ETFs will differ radically from that of the VIX index.
2. VIX ETFs tend to lose money—significant money—in the long run 
   VIX ETFs are at the mercy of the VIX futures curve, which they rely upon for their exposure. Because the typical state of the curve is upsloping (in contango), VIX ETFs see their positions decay over time. Decay in their exposure leaves them with less money to roll into the next futures contract when the current one expires. The process then repeats itself, leading to massive double-digit losses over the course of a typical year. These funds almost always lose money long term.

[Incredulity 11657]

a visual of the last week

 

[0xdeadbeef 1645]

I pulled out everything I own Monday EXCEPT a solid dividend paying stocks. That is still a good sized chunk of money.  WTF was I thinking. Why didn't I pull everything out!  F-Me!  

Now that everything is down by a huge amount, I CAN"T make myself get out now.  Can't do it, even though I'm pretty sure the market is going to fall more.

 

[SimonBolivar 10957]

2 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I pulled out everything I own Monday EXCEPT a solid dividend paying stocks. That is still a good sized chunk of money.  WTF was I thinking. Why didn't I pull everything out!  F-Me!  

Now that everything is down by a huge amount, I CAN"T make myself get out now.  Can't do it, even though I'm pretty sure the market is going to fall more.

 

Good, you shouldn't get out now.

[Incredulity 11657]

2 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I pulled out everything I own Monday EXCEPT a solid dividend paying stocks. That is still a good sized chunk of money.  WTF was I thinking. Why didn't I pull everything out!  F-Me!  

Now that everything is down by a huge amount, I CAN"T make myself get out now.  Can't do it, even though I'm pretty sure the market is going to fall more.

 

 

[Wally Fairway 5541]

39 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Things that piss me off:

^VIX (which you can't buy) is up 54% this morning.

^VIX3M (which you can't buy) is up 26%.

VIXM (which I own) is up 2.76%.

 

FUCK.  ME.

 

13 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

It’s addictive.  I’m not proud of it my man.  

 

35 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Well the fun continues....

For those interested in such idiocy, and to not clutter this thread with multiple daily posts about idiotic/aggy investment ideas - I started a separate thread for really bad, but potentially profitable ideas.

You can find it here - 

 

 

 

[Beau Vine 54208]

26 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

1. VIX ETFs don't reflect the VIX index 
   By any measure, VIX futures indexes—and therefore VIX ETFs—do a lousy job emulating the VIX index. The VIX index is truly uninvestable, and over periods of a month or a year, the return pattern of VIX ETFs will differ radically from that of the VIX index.
2. VIX ETFs tend to lose money—significant money—in the long run 
   VIX ETFs are at the mercy of the VIX futures curve, which they rely upon for their exposure. Because the typical state of the curve is upsloping (in contango), VIX ETFs see their positions decay over time. Decay in their exposure leaves them with less money to roll into the next futures contract when the current one expires. The process then repeats itself, leading to massive double-digit losses over the course of a typical year. These funds almost always lose money long term.

Yeah, any futures-based ETF will go off the rails in the long haul, but there should be at least a little bit of short-term correlation.

[Sgt Hulk 13713]

Anyone think this will affect real estate as well?  I’m so for a move this summer and looking to buy at the next location 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Anyone think this will affect real estate as well?  I’m so for a move this summer and looking to buy at the next location 

IMO; Rates will approach 0%, RE will appreciate, monthly payment stays the same if you’re a borrower

[Anastasis 23464]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Will investors want to stay in the market over the weekend when who knows what coronavirus news will come out?

Well, i think this question has been resolved.

@Wally Fairway you unloading any puts at these levels?   Only got a few SPY puts level, but I think that we see some kind of attempt at a bounce next week.

 

[Wally Fairway 5541]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Well, i think this question has been resolved.

@Wally Fairway you unloading any puts at these levels?   Only got a few SPY puts level, but I think that we see some kind of attempt at a bounce next week.

 

I have lightened my puts only slightly, and only the near term expirations.
Here is my aggy idea of the day, as posted in Surly Stonks

Quote

Caffeined up, let's go

So here is today's bet - regardless of what the market does today, buy short expiration SPY near money puts and calls today. Buy them close to the closing bell and my assumption is that the market will open significantly up or down on Monday. 
The most aggy bet would be to do this with 3-2 expiration, that's the ultimate leverage - but if you want to be slightly less aggy then go 3-4 or 3-6; one side of this bet will almost certainly go to $0, but the idea is that you don't have to guess right on which way the market opens you just want it to go up or down in a big way. Easy way to get 5x or 10x your investment.

Example on Wednesday I bought some 2-28 expiration SPY puts at 311, and calls at 316 - cost of each was about $1,000; the calls are worth $0, but the puts will be worth over $7.000 at the open today (except I sold some of them yesterday for 1/2 that price).

burn my house down, tell me what I'm missing????

Disclaimers - 
I am not giving advice, I am asking advice - do not make investment decisions based on anything you read in this thread.
Past performance is no guarantee of anything, fuck with the bull and you get the horns.
The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets - Baron Rothschild
The New York Stock exchange is the only store in the world where consumers sell stuff when it goes on sale - Warren Buffett

 

[atomheartbevo 89630]

16 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Anyone think this will affect real estate as well?  I’m so for a move this summer and looking to buy at the next location 

Look for houses with elderly owners who have pre-existing conditions?

[atomheartbevo 89630]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/28/business/hand-sanitizers-wipes-cvs-walgreens-coronavirus/index.html

Quote

Bath & Body Works, owned by L Brands (LB), said Thursday that its hand sanitizer business was growing in the wake of coronavirus.

"The hand sanitizer business is about 5% of the total business. It is presently growing at a very high rate for reasons we would all understand," L Brands chief financial officer Stuart Burgdoerfer said on a call with analysts.

So 5% of their total business is hand sanitizer?  When I get dragged into their stores in the future, I will keep an eye out for palettes full of hand sanitizer.  

[Tailgate 3021]

Would love to a fly on the wall at Buffet’s office. It has to be somewhat business as usual...but the conversations would be interesting to hear.

[Incredulity 11657]

1 minute ago, Tailgate said:

Would love to a fly on the wall at Buffet’s office. It has to be somewhat business as usual...but the conversations would be interesting to hear.

Cliffsnotes:

 

"When the phone rings give them 30 cents on the dollar"

[SMUlawUTgrad 81]

I was orginnally planning to fund my SEP today. I'm thinking I should buy. 

[MAUFRAIS 6620]

Would love to a fly on the wall at Buffet’s office. It has to be somewhat business as usual...but the conversations would be interesting to hear.

The drive through kid at his McDonald’s should start tweeting his order every morning.

[Trey3216 15345]

1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I pulled out everything I own Monday EXCEPT a solid dividend paying stocks. That is still a good sized chunk of money.  WTF was I thinking. Why didn't I pull everything out!  F-Me!  

Now that everything is down by a huge amount, I CAN"T make myself get out now.  Can't do it, even though I'm pretty sure the market is going to fall more.

 

You shouldn't.  You should scale purchases into those Blue Chips as we go down, maybe 5-7% per week of the cash that you raised by selling the rest.  

[Sbbruin 21830]

1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Anyone think this will affect real estate as well?  I’m so for a move this summer and looking to buy at the next location 

Yes, it will affect rates in the short term.  I don't think it will last long enough to have a material affect on supply/demand.

[Girdwood 118]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I pulled out everything I own Monday EXCEPT a solid dividend paying stocks. That is still a good sized chunk of money.  WTF was I thinking. Why didn't I pull everything out!  F-Me!  

Now that everything is down by a huge amount, I CAN"T make myself get out now.  Can't do it, even though I'm pretty sure the market is going to fall more.

 

I moved the majority of my retirement money into low-risk income funds on Wednesday (as of close Wed) but now I wish that it had been 100%.  Oh well. 

Next week, I'm going to slowly start buying back in. Create a simple, long timeline and unemotionally buy back in.

[Wally Fairway 5541]

5 minutes ago, Girdwood said:

I see that and I'll raise you this & see you next week

Edited February 28, 2020 by Wally Fairway

[Guest Lobo]

You can almost smell the money moving into privates/alts.  

Been in the game 20 years and I've never understood how people can put so much of their portfolio in long public equities.  Particularly since half of those people work for a publicly traded company to begin with.  

[Sbbruin 21830]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

You can almost smell the money moving into privates/alts.  

Been in the game 20 years and I've never understood how people can put so much of their portfolio in long public equities.  Particularly since half of those people work for a publicly traded company to begin with.  

Unless you're within 10 years of retirement, your best chance at quality returns is in equities.  

[HRSchenker 2268]

I just dropped some cash into two stocks that have treated me well: BP and STWD. Those prices are ridiculous.

[SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861]

14 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

Unless you're within 10 years of retirement, your best chance at quality returns is in equities.  

well, other than that tho, i can't see how people do it.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

10 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

I just dropped some cash into two stocks that have treated me well: BP and STWD. Those prices are ridiculous.

BP dividend pushing 8% now. From past history, only extreme events (i.e. gulf spill) force them to lower dividends. I recall they have pressure from the UK govt to retain dividend levels.

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Look for houses with elderly owners who have pre-existing conditions?

Sorry, boomers.

[Girdwood 118]

Damn 2020, you scary.

[Incredulity 11657]

38 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

BP dividend pushing 8% now. From past history, only extreme events (i.e. gulf spill) force them to lower dividends. I recall they have pressure from the UK govt to retain dividend levels.

 

Don't chase yield.

 

Ask me how I know.  Looking at you Ford, Altria, International Paper.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Gold and silver falling like WTF?