Markets still falling like whoa

[Continental Op 3934]

Margin calls? 

[Anastasis 23477]

Healthcare and some energy stock appear to be mounting a resistance. 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Gonna take a nibble on a NUGT

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Dp

[4thgenhorn 38]

I just put some back in...F it...

added to kids 529, did my 2020 IRA. 

Im sure my action will signal the next leg down. But it sure looks like fear is at a pretty high level. I mean is there not going to be life as we know it in the future?

I’ll be buying more in March, regardless of up or down. 
 

[hornbri 1400]

4 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

I just put some back in...F it...

added to kids 529, did my 2020 IRA. 

Im sure my action will signal the next leg down. But it sure looks like fear is at a pretty high level. I mean is there not going to be life as we know it in the future?

I’ll be buying more in March, regardless of up or down. 
 

I just did as well and yep I will keep buying over the next couple weeks. 

[Okie State 3821]

I keep a monthly record of account balances in my household budget to stay on top of contributions, returns, net worth, etc. Just plugged in the numbers excluding whatever today settles at. Let me just say...it's not good.

[Anastasis 23477]

47 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Healthcare and some energy stock appear to be mounting a resistance. 

lul, wut?

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 hours ago, Lobo said:

You can almost smell the money moving into privates/alts.  

Been in the game 20 years and I've never understood how people can put so much of their portfolio in long public equities.  Particularly since half of those people work for a publicly traded company to begin with.  

I’d say I’m only 20% in mkt.  PE is huge and real estate.  Then some very safe tax haven muni bonds.  Overall I’m only down 4%.  Of course the whole ride up I was tempted to go full tilt stocks.  It’s why people smarter than me with money manage mine.  

[0xdeadbeef 1651]

I just put a good size chunk back in the market. Looking at Market news and watching the Market all morning seems like we may have hit the bottom.  ...  Then after I jumped back in, I went back to reading Virus news and I'm freaked the fuck out again and wish I hadn't got back in.   😞 

I need to just close all my browser tabs and get back to work. I'm in, so I need to get back to my regularly scheduled make-good-choices-and-let-the-market-do-its-thing-over-the-long-run strategy.

I'm to old for this volatile shit.

 

 

 

 

 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

https://mobile.twitter.com/boes_/status/1233474465423642626

[jdhorn92 1552]

41 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I keep a monthly record of account balances in my household budget to stay on top of contributions, returns, net worth, etc. Just plugged in the numbers excluding whatever today settles at. Let me just say...it's not good.

I do the same, but i haven't dared venture over to the assets side of things since the CoronaCorrection.  I keep a sizable cash position and Ive looked affectionately at that balance the last week or so, but the other accounts, i dont dare, but ive got an idea how bad the carnage is just doing 9th grade math.

Edited February 28, 2020 by jdhorn92

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Rumors are that there will be a coordinated central bank intervention before markets open next week.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Feel like going all in and if it gets fucked I’ll just go vacation in China and call it.

This is where the pros earn that 30 basis points none of us think they deserve.  

[52-80 19184]

2 hours ago, Lobo said:

You can almost smell the money moving into privates/alts.  

Been in the game 20 years and I've never understood how people can put so much of their portfolio in long public equities.  Particularly since half of those people work for a publicly traded company to begin with.  

Ooooh can I play.

 

Is it because private equity has yielded only the same net returns as public equity (measured by SP500) over last 1, 5, and 10 year horizon?  (Source State Street equity index and Bain global PE report)

 

 

[washparkhorn 9939]

15 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Rumors are that there will be a coordinated central bank intervention before markets open next week.

The Fed has many more tools in the toolbox than they did in 2007-08, so not surprised to see the leveling off in the downward spiral. 

[Guest Lobo]

6 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Ooooh can I play.

 

Is it because private equity has yielded only the same net returns as public equity (measured by SP500) over last 1, 5, and 10 year horizon?  (Source State Street equity index and Bain global PE report)

 

 

Probably something like that.  Must be why wealthy people avoid privates, all those fees for the same alpha as ETF’s.  

[Loco 3752]

I've ended up in too many different stocks over the years and have some stuff that is way out of proportion due to growth.  I like SP500 index plus some growth stuff. (gambling)  I was thinking about doing some adjustments last week, but I decided to hold off. oh well, I'm a buy and hold guy, so I'll probably just not even look and just wait.  Who knows, this Corona thing could be a dud and I'd miss the bounce.  Market timing is for suckers

[Wally Fairway 5566]

11 minutes ago, Loco said:

I've ended up in too many different stocks over the years and have some stuff that is way out of proportion due to growth.  I like SP500 index plus some growth stuff. (gambling)  I was thinking about doing some adjustments last week, but I decided to hold off. oh well, I'm a buy and hold guy, so I'll probably just not even look and just wait.  Who knows, this Corona thing could be a dud and I'd miss the bounce.  Market timing is for suckers

It would be nice if the virus became CoronaLight, but that doesn't seem to be the tragectory; people getting it the 2nd time, the number of countries affected continuing to grow, events being cancelled around the globe....on the other hand China (if you can believe their information) has started to report more people who were treated that are no longer considered actively showing symptoms than there are newly infected people for the last few days.

[52-80 19184]

20 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Probably something like that.  Must be why wealthy people avoid privates, all those fees for the same alpha as ETF’s.  

Doesn't prove much.  Wealthy people love those all those actively managed funds and portfolio, where it's been well documented the majority of them underperformed public indices for decades.

Unless James Simon or Ken Griffith invites you to open your wallet. 

[triplehorn 2664]

It’s notable how many other nations are taking a drawn out approach involving fairly draconian measures, like no school in Japan until April, to limit the surge in infections.  China is in full isolation mode - for how long?  Seems like a good amount of damage has already been done with drawn out responses that cancels out the chance at a quick return to normal, and that’s pre-US real time hospitalizations ripple.

[Guest Lobo]

I agree on the futility of active managers in the global equities space.  Might as well buy an annuity.  I often wonder what institutional investor will be stupid enough to hire the last active Publics  manager?  Same group that builds the last parking garage or indoor mall, I suppose 

[Trey3216 15349]

Damn, that last 15 minute candle was impressive

[Junior Miller 1502]

2 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Gold and silver falling like WTF?

How far has gold fallen? 

Been thinking about getting into gold as a hedge to the US political turmoil. I would think gold would rebound nicely from any current fall 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Junior Miller

[0xdeadbeef 1651]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Damn, that last 15 minute candle was impressive

After the way yesterday closed, that was good to see. 

[Beau Vine 54258]

 
Don't chase yield.
 
Ask me how I know.  Looking at you Ford, Altria, International Paper.

Altria, lol.

I can't believe investing in a company that was getting sued out the wazoo and killing off all their customers turned out to be a bad idea.

[Storm the Field 5295]

14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Damn, that last 15 minute candle was impressive

SP gained 75 points in final 15 minutes,  cut the day's drop to 0.8%

NASDAQ gained 110 in the final 10 minutes, ended day just barely positive. 

DOW went from 24,785 at 3:45 to closing at 25,409, down "only" 1.3%.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Storm the Field

[Fudge Nuggets 19207]

46 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

China (if you can believe their information) has started to report more people who were treated that are no longer considered actively showing symptoms than there are newly infected people for the last few days.

That's because those that were treated that are no longer considered actively showing symptoms died.

[jimmyjazz 45981]

6 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Things that piss me off:

^VIX (which you can't buy) is up 54% this morning.

Actually, you can purchase VIX synthetically, as @hornhorn illustrated a few weeks ago.  Buy a VIX call, sell a VIX put.  It's so damn simple I'm embarrassed I never thought of it.  (Yes, there's a bit of theta decay.)

[Fudge Nuggets 19207]

3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

SP gained 75 points in final 15 minutes,  cut the day's drop to 0.8%

NASDAQ gained 110 in the final 10 minutes, ended day just barely positive. 

DOW went from 24,785 at 3:45 to closing at 25,409, down "only" 1.3%.

Big time short covering going into the weekend.  Fed might cut rates in an emergency session, market screams higher first thing Monday then people wake up and realize low interest rates do fuck all to combat contagious diseases.  Any pop on Monday and I'm shorting the fuck out of $IWM.

[Incredulity 11675]

41 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Big time short covering going into the weekend.  Fed might cut rates in an emergency session, market screams higher first thing Monday then people wake up and realize low interest rates do fuck all to combat contagious diseases.  Any pop on Monday and I'm shorting the fuck out of $IWM.

You need further bad CV news too.

 

 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Loaded up on some apple options at $300 for April.  Also a small bite of UPRO.  

Fuck it.  You only live once.  #Stonks

Edited February 28, 2020 by ChiTownDoc
already drunk

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

On 2/19/2020 at 9:15 AM, Continental Op said:

Bern sees imminent disaster? No wai!

Not a Bern fan.  But FML if only I listened to that bastard this one time...

[Fudge Nuggets 19207]

40 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

You need further bad CV news too.

 

 

Which do you think the odds favor?  More cases reported in more countries or a miracle cure is developed by market open on Monday?

The market wants to go down, all it takes is one dude having a cough at LAX in the next two days to make it crash more.

[Dbeasy 15072]

I agree on the futility of active managers in the global equities space.  Might as well buy an annuity.  I often wonder what institutional investor will be stupid enough to hire the last active Publics  manager?  Same group that builds the last parking garage or indoor mall, I suppose 

Private equity has had some good years for a long time, but there now is so much private equity money chasing deals the ebitda multiples have jumped from 7 to 10 and higher.

When you combine that with the fact they are taking 25-30% of the profits, AND companies these days have already been optimized BEFORE the PE firm acquires it, the formula for building value is significantly skewed. I have real questions about whether PE firms can continue to make good money over the next several years.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

Private equity has had some good years for a long time, but there now is so much private equity money chasing deals the ebitda multiples have jumped from 7 to 10 and higher.

When you combine that with the fact they are taking 25-30% of the profits, AND companies these days have already been optimized BEFORE the PE firm acquires it, the formula for building value is significantly skewed. I have real questions about whether PE firms can continue to make good money over the next several years.

 

Depends how you get in and the deal too.  I got a 10+ multiple so I'm not gonna bitch...but I'll agree a lot of the money earmarked for PE is still waiting to be employed.  Guess what?  I was bitching watching the market take off as that money sat there...right about now I'm pretty damn happy. 

But what funds are you getting into and what is their strategy?  PE with one firm is night and day difference with somebody else.  

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

2 hours ago, Junior Miller said:

How far has gold fallen? 

Been thinking about getting into gold as a hedge to the US political turmoil. I would think gold would rebound nicely from any current fall 

Peak to valley this week was down ~ $126 / troy oz

[Dbeasy 15072]

Depends how you get in and the deal too.  I got a 10+ multiple so I'm not gonna bitch...but I'll agree a lot of the money earmarked for PE is still waiting to be employed.  Guess what?  I was bitching watching the market take off as that money sat there...right about now I'm pretty damn happy. 
But what funds are you getting into and what is their strategy?  PE with one firm is night and day difference with somebody else.  

All of the ones I’ve looked at over the years go out and buy companies, wring out efficiencies, merge and acquire other companies, and drive up ebitda. It’s been a fantastic model for many years but it’s really hard these days to find enough targets where inefficiencies still exist

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

27 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

All of the ones I’ve looked at over the years go out and buy companies, wring out efficiencies, merge and acquire other companies, and drive up ebitda. It’s been a fantastic model for many years but it’s really hard these days to find enough targets where inefficiencies still exist

 

We are doing that.  Big roll up.  Easy to pick off small groups at 4-6x.  We will be at 25M-30M EBITDA and drive a 12-15x at that point w blackstone etc.  

Kept 30% so second bite should be bigger.  So far, no problems with targets etc.  

Again I’m sure other places are getting crowded but luckily our little niche still solid.  

[Incredulity 11675]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Which do you think the odds favor?  More cases reported in more countries or a miracle cure is developed by market open on Monday?

The market wants to go down, all it takes is one dude having a cough at LAX in the next two days to make it crash more.

I think at this point the market is desperate for the next thesis.

increase in fatalities and/or massive increase in infections=bad

static infections and fatalities=good

[BradInATX 9208]

How bad does it get if the Pope dies? 

[workswithseed 2112]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

How bad does it get if the Pope dies? 

As bad as the new one is.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

How bad does it get if the Pope dies? 

Never short the Catholic Church.  

[GRHorn 105]

Given the thread title this has probably already been shared, but this video sums up the week and any time there’s a big sell off I think of it. 
 

You can’t handle the tick tock!

[atomheartbevo 89735]

California has its second case where they don’t know where it came from.   Oregon may have a case.  US is close to a travel ban with Italy.  Next week is going to be a fun market week.   Oh, and some of the passengers released from the cruise line quarantine are testing positive after release.   

[workswithseed 2112]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

California has its second case where they don’t know where it came from.   Oregon may have a case.  US is close to a travel ban with Italy.  Next week is going to be a fun market week.   Oh, and some of the passengers released from the cruise line quarantine are testing positive after release.   

Fuck. I just bought rice and beans for this.

[FartingMonk 3608]

Took a couple of small positions on Verizon and ExxonMobil this morning.  

[Thetexashammer 1062]

12 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

The Fed has many more tools in the toolbox than they did in 2007-08, so not surprised to see the leveling off in the downward spiral. 

Yeah but the Fed is worthless. A secular earnings decline does not justify intervention. That is not what the Fed is for.

[washparkhorn 9939]

2 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

Yeah but the Fed is worthless. A secular earnings decline does not justify intervention. That is not what the Fed is for.

Who do you think was behind this asset bubble? 

Inflate or die.

[Dbeasy 15072]

Still looking at trading S&P500 put options to hedge on downside risk. I've always wondered about the stated statistics for the number of option contract trades I see posted on websites like Barchart.com.  It will show infinitely small numbers traded in a day, such as 150 contracts. How can that be? Do they really mean 150,000 or 150,000,000 or something else? These S&P options can't possibly be trading at that low a volume. Can someone clarify?

Also, I've been comparing the option prices to options calculators that I assume are based upon Black Scholes, and for some reason I'm getting wildly different option values. For example an S&P500 put option at 2950 strike price and an expiration at 4/30/20 shows a value of 62.40 on one site and 228.55 on another site. Meanwhile the bid ask is 135.60 vs 142.30. What am I missing here?

 

Edited February 29, 2020 by Dbeasy