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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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aggie08

aggie08 21504

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Absolutely.  The big problem with pulling out is knowing when to get back in.

A couple weeks with no one's pet's head falling off is good enough for me.

You don't have to buy back in at the bottom. So long as you buy back in at a position lower than when you sold, all good.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

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Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

The last week of Feb through March 2nd, I completely withdrew from the market, which means I sat out the roller coaster ride last week.    I'm happy about that, BUT...

I have no plan on when to jump back in.  I wouldn't recognize a bottom if it sat on me. I'm usual a buy and hold kinda guy.   I know the coronavirus is going to get much worse in the real world, and I know earnings reports for most companies are going to suck.  So I assume that this downturn is going to get worse and last for 6 months or more...but with the Feds pumping money, and if the Saudi and Russians get on the same page, and if people adjust to the new corona-reality,  could this thing stabilize and climb sooner?  I have no clue. I just worry about getting back in when the dow has already climbed above where I stepped out.  

Scale in  

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48106

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

The last week of Feb through March 2nd, I completely withdrew from the market, which means I sat out the roller coaster ride last week.    I'm happy about that, BUT...

I have no plan on when to jump back in.  I wouldn't recognize a bottom if it sat on me. I'm usual a buy and hold kinda guy.   I know the coronavirus is going to get much worse in the real world, and I know earnings reports for most companies are going to suck.  So I assume that this downturn is going to get worse and last for 6 months or more...but with the Feds pumping money, and if the Saudi and Russians get on the same page, and if people adjust to the new corona-reality,  could this thing stabilize and climb sooner?  I have no clue. I just worry about getting back in when the dow has already climbed above where I stepped out.  

Dude I'm not market guy, but it feels like you already smashed a home run by getting out when you did. Fretting over getting the absolute max out of your chance to time the bottom seems like a weird concern. You'd actually let the market climb PAST to where you got out before you got back in? Wat? 

Also, there's a fuck ton if giant IFs in  your statement, most of which will not happen period much less all to have this thing stabilize and climb sooner. 

Seriously, if you got out at 25, and it goes down 22, where you buy, and then goes down to 19 after that, you're still going to be fine if you sit on that shit for 5 years and it goes back up to where it is now. For a proclaimed buy and hold guy, I would have thought you'd be  pretty stress free right now because you can't really lose and you're willing to invest the time necessary for this stuff to pay off big. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted

Overall I'm down 4% on the year.  Not counting investments outside the account - which is private stuff that's all doing well.  I have a lot of bullets but I'm still gonna sit on my ass and wait this out.  Nobody knows but some people I trust who bought my structured notes geared to the downside - which I was very much against at the time - say another 500 points lopped off the S/P is very realistic.  So...more pain and carnage.  

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aggie08

aggie08 21504

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Dude I'm not market guy, but it feels like you already smashed a home run by getting out when you did. Fretting over getting the absolute max out of your chance to time the bottom seems like a weird concern. You'd actually let the market climb PAST to where you got out before you got back in? Wat? 

Also, there's a fuck ton if giant IFs in  your statement, most of which will not happen period much less all to have this thing stabilize and climb sooner. 

Seriously, if you got out at 25, and it goes down 22, where you buy, and then goes down to 19 after that, you're still going to be fine if you sit on that shit for 5 years and it goes back up to where it is now. For a proclaimed buy and hold guy, I would have thought you'd be  pretty stress free right now because you can't really lose and you're willing to invest the time necessary for this stuff to pay off big. 

All of this. I'd be doing cartwheels if I was in his position. It may take years to get back to where we were on Feb. 21. Wait for a couple months of "solidity", buy back in, and rest comfortably knowing that you already saved 15% of your investments.

Edited by aggie08
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Not a cat

Not a cat 5657

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Scale in  

This.

With my bonus in December, I hit my magic number.  That number that I'm pretty confident if I really wanted to I could make it last the rest of my life using the 4% rule- not in the lap of luxury but also without eating cat food.

I actually considered moving all that amount to treasuries and then aggressively investing any future contributions in the market.  Did I do that?  Of course not, I guess I'm a dance with the one that brung me type of guy.  Or a total dumbass.  Probably the latter.

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3335

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

The last week of Feb through March 2nd, I completely withdrew from the market, which means I sat out the roller coaster ride last week.    I'm happy about that, BUT...

I have no plan on when to jump back in.  I wouldn't recognize a bottom if it sat on me. I'm usual a buy and hold kinda guy.   I know the coronavirus is going to get much worse in the real world, and I know earnings reports for most companies are going to suck.  So I assume that this downturn is going to get worse and last for 6 months or more...but with the Feds pumping money, and if the Saudi and Russians get on the same page, and if people adjust to the new corona-reality,  could this thing stabilize and climb sooner?  I have no clue. I just worry about getting back in when the dow has already climbed above where I stepped out.  

Good on you for getting out.  My wife and I and our kids (all adults) did the same thing.  Do not get back in the market until late May - early June at the earliest.  For those still in stocks,  sell the rallies.  This ain’t over.

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hopkinsnhorns

hopkinsnhorns 533

Posted
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36 minutes ago, Captainant said:

it's almost like we've been expending our stimulus capacity like fucking crazy since 2017 to keep the music going and now that we actually need economic stimulus, the well is dry.

But hey, at least your 401k's are doing well right?

Like I've been telling my dad for months, that bull market was built on a house of cards.

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5657

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

The last week of Feb through March 2nd, I completely withdrew from the market, which means I sat out the roller coaster ride last week.    I'm happy about that, BUT...

I have no plan on when to jump back in.  I wouldn't recognize a bottom if it sat on me. I'm usual a buy and hold kinda guy.   I know the coronavirus is going to get much worse in the real world, and I know earnings reports for most companies are going to suck.  So I assume that this downturn is going to get worse and last for 6 months or more...but with the Feds pumping money, and if the Saudi and Russians get on the same page, and if people adjust to the new corona-reality,  could this thing stabilize and climb sooner?  I have no clue. I just worry about getting back in when the dow has already climbed above where I stepped out.  

Thought a bit more about this.  If you're not content to just take your 20% windfall and get back in now like some have suggested (which is good advice IMO) you could leg in.

Invest 20% now.  If it goes up or down 5% (based on original numbers) throw in another 20%.  So if it's a quick rebound you'll have 20% invested at each of -20,-15,-10,-5 and 0.  If it's 2008 all over again you'll have 20% invested at each of -20,-25,-30,-35,-40.

It's not perfect but absent a crystal ball to know the bottom, nothing is.

Only 2 problems I see are 1) the market is so volatile you might just miss these benchmarks on a snapback if you're not diligently watching and 2) I have no idea what I'm doing and am just a buy and hold idiot.

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2724

Posted
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44 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

This.

With my bonus in December, I hit my magic number.  That number that I'm pretty confident if I really wanted to I could make it last the rest of my life using the 4% rule- not in the lap of luxury but also without eating cat food.

I actually considered moving all that amount to treasuries and then aggressively investing any future contributions in the market.  Did I do that?  Of course not, I guess I'm a dance with the one that brung me type of guy.  Or a total dumbass.  Probably the latter.

user name checks out.

The price action on certain stocks make zero sense.  There is clearly a lack of price discovery and just indiscriminate selling.  Made purchases today.  Will make more tomorrow.  By the time the CV is widespread here markets will have already bottomed.  And fiscal stimulus coming even though that will have fuck all to do with allaying CV fear.

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52-80

52-80 19159

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

 

With my bonus in December, I hit my magic number.  That number that I'm pretty confident if I really wanted to I could make it last the rest of my life using the 4% rule- not in the lap of luxury but also without eating cat food.

 

Fraudulent username

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

A couple weeks with no one's pet's head falling off is good enough for me.

You don't have to buy back in at the bottom. So long as you buy back in at a position lower than when you sold, all good.

This is where I'm at. I managed to sell off a good portion of our investments right before the crash (dumb luck). I've bought back in at different points, probably averaging 12-14% lower than when I sold. I'll take it and keep buying in as much as I can each month. I'm not looking to get it perfect. I already will beat the market as a whole for the year fairly easily, which works for me.

Edited by BradInATX
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ImissWallyPryor

ImissWallyPryor 9046

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Some of y'all are acting like all your money is in retirement accounts and taxes are no issue.  My problem is I have about 60% invested in non-retirement accounts, and even now I'll be paying capital gains tax on most of my sell orders.  I'm calling my broker tomorrow to see what he can recommend selling at a loss to offset the gains, then maybe buying some more shares that are down, even if they drop further. It would be easier if I had more in mutual funds.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45957

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ImissWallyPryor said:

Some of y'all are acting like all your money is in retirement accounts and taxes are no issue.  My problem is I have about 60% invested in non-retirement accounts, and even now I'll be paying capital gains tax on most of my sell orders.  I'm calling my broker tomorrow to see what he can recommend selling at a loss to offset the gains, then maybe buying some more shares that are down, even if they drop further. It would be easier if I had more in mutual funds.

If you'd rather not liquidate but don't like the downside exposure in the near-term, ask your broker about collars and zero-cost collars.

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Caddox

Caddox 952

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Posted

This was possibly the least loved bull market in US history. The amount of cash that remained on the sidelines (3 trillion plus) and the lower velocity (which is why it lasted so long) bode very well for the upcoming post consolidation period we are going to see. I call it that because I’m not convinced we will see a reasonable definition of a recession. 

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

Posted
Posted

i backed out a little bit a few weeks ago and may experience my first lesson on capital gains.

dumb question.  private account (non-401k).  let's say I sell off 5 shares of CompanyA for profit, then decide to buy back (re-invest) 3 shares of CompanyA.  i still have to pay capital gains on the original 5 shares, correct?  trying to see if there is some type of opposite parallel to the wash rule.

 

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5657

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

i backed out a little bit a few weeks ago and may experience my first lesson on capital gains.

dumb question.  private account (non-401k).  let's say I sell off 5 shares of CompanyA for profit, then decide to buy back (re-invest) 3 shares of CompanyA.  i still have to pay capital gains on the original 5 shares, correct?  trying to see if there is some type of opposite parallel to the wash rule.

 

No corresponding wash rule for gains, just losses.  The IRS is happy to take your capital gains as soon as you realize them.  You can try to offset some of those gains with some capital losses, but you'll need to honor the wash rule on those.

Edited by Not a cat
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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5793

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Posted
58 minutes ago, Caddox said:

This was possibly the least loved bull market in US history. The amount of cash that remained on the sidelines (3 trillion plus) and the lower velocity (which is why it lasted so long) bode very well for the upcoming post consolidation period we are going to see. I call it that because I’m not convinced we will see a reasonable definition of a recession. 

Why are you not convinced we will see a recession? 

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2724

Posted
Posted
Why are you not convinced we will see a recession? 

Don’t want to answer for him but probably because technically a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The first two months of q1 were cranking and I think March is catching a boost of people overspending on shit in preparation for a long quarantine. Q2 will probably be negative, depending on how bad and long the virus impacts daily life. By the time July rolls around he is probably assuming we are all clear.

Economic recession is irrelevant to the assfucking the market is giving out, btw.
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, bluto said:

was at the park earlier just shooting baskets. Very Socially awkward guy walks up with coffee and a b-ball, starts shooting too then busts out with “do you like the stock market?”.... which one of you bastards was it?

You guys playing cards?

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48106

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Iirc, Mondays have been bad and Tuesdays have been good.

I've got to say, this is all horrible shit. But for a guy in his 40's who was over the moon for a 4.38% interest rate on his home a couple years ago, the opportunity for another fed cut on the 18th and a refinance to something like 3.2% seems beyond fucking wonderful. 

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10958

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I've got to say, this is all horrible shit. But for a guy in his 40's who was over the moon for a 4.38% interest rate on his home a couple years ago, the opportunity for another fed cut on the 18th and a refinance to something like 3.2% seems beyond fucking wonderful. 

We offer 3.2% on HE loans right now. You'll be able to do better than 3.2% if it keeps getting cut.

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