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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5586

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, TexasGolf said:

look forward to getting paid to take a mortgage. 

yeah but when that happen you are going to lose more in home market pricing declines than you can make on the mortgage
(unless they let you get a 100 year mortgage at -1.5%....paging UTPhil, can you pick up the white courtesy phone?)

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49356

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Captainant said:

it's almost like we've been expending our stimulus capacity like fucking crazy since 2017 to keep the music going and now that we actually need economic stimulus, the well is dry.

But hey, at least your 401k's are doing well right?

Dry??   

It's an Election Year -- Politicians are like...

giphy.gif

 

Edited by LTtxfan
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5586

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Never seen anything like this.

I've seen my share of market downturns, corrections, crashes, etc and I've never seen anything like this.
But I believe there is opportunity in this whipsaw action in the markets, if you are brave/stupid enough to pick a side
If you are really brave you can make a killing on the market not moving much (which seems like unlikely, at least to me), as puts/calls 10% under/over market price are selling fof:
June  30 $258 puts - $13.50, June 30 $318  calls - $5.75
Sept 30 $260 puts - $17.75, Sept 30 $318 calls - $8.25
so if you really believe that SPY stays inside that range, you could sell 1 of each and for June 30 you'd get $19.25 and for Sept 30 you'd get $29...but with a lot of risk involved if you had to cover it

full disclosure - this is not financial advice, past performance is no guarantee of future results, may shrink when wet, objects in the mirror are closer than they appear,  viewer discretion is advised, 

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21469

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I've seen my share of market downturns, corrections, crashes, etc and I've never seen anything like this.
But I believe there is opportunity in this whipsaw action in the markets, if you are brave/stupid enough to pick a side
If you are really brave you can make a killing on the market not moving much (which seems like unlikely, at least to me), as puts/calls 10% under/over market price are selling fof:
June  30 $258 puts - $13.50, June 30 $318  calls - $5.75
Sept 30 $260 puts - $17.75, Sept 30 $318 calls - $8.25
so if you really believe that SPY stays inside that range, you could sell 1 of each and for June 30 you'd get $19.25 and for Sept 30 you'd get $29...but with a lot of risk involved if you had to cover it

full disclosure - this is not financial advice, past performance is no guarantee of future results, may shrink when wet, objects in the mirror are closer than they appear,  viewer discretion is advised, 

it was not a full disclosure.

“Any rebroadcast, retransmission, or account of this game, without the express written consent of Major League Baseball, is prohibited.”

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49356

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I've seen my share of market downturns, corrections, crashes, etc and I've never seen anything like this.
 

No uptick rule, more index/ETF investing, more higher speed transactions, and tons more quant and option trading -- Makes for a completely different market environment than ever before.

Just take caution and be mindful of the old saying --  “In Bear Markets, stocks return to their Rightful Owners.”

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54429

Posted
Posted

I got a wonderful surprise yesterday.  I checked my main work IRA for the first time since about December, when it had about $600K in it.  

And yesterday, it had about $600K in it!?!?!  I had completely forgotten that I had moved about half that money into long-term Treasuries.  

seanscream.gif

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12061

Posted
Posted

I’ve never bought individual stocks.

But now all the costs / trades are 0 with vanguard ... even in my roll over ira.

if all my money is tied into mutual funds, do I need to cash out of them 1st before I’m able to buy individual stocks.

Before, I’d just ‘exchange’ the funds... which would be sold at the close price and bought at the close price of the mutual funds.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49356

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

I’ve never bought individual stocks.

But now all the costs / trades are 0 with vanguard ... even in my roll over ira.

if all my money is tied into mutual funds, do I need to cash out of them 1st before I’m able to buy individual stocks.

Before, I’d just ‘exchange’ the funds... which would be sold at the close price and bought at the close price of the mutual funds.

Contact Vanguard, they'll explain and offer tools to help.  Probably have tutorial videos too....

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

I’ve never bought individual stocks.

But now all the costs / trades are 0 with vanguard ... even in my roll over ira.

if all my money is tied into mutual funds, do I need to cash out of them 1st before I’m able to buy individual stocks.

Before, I’d just ‘exchange’ the funds... which would be sold at the close price and bought at the close price of the mutual funds.

Fees have got it now to where you can build a portfolio in ETF's for as cheap or cheaper than mutual funds, if you do it right.  I'd think about selling the mutual funds and formatting a portfolio in that manner, because ETF's trade like normal stocks, and your money is far more liquid and malleable (you can sell out of small caps and hold cash, then invest more in large caps, etc) without the problem of load management on the funds.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

Posted
Posted

In addition, you could build the same portfolio and keep 10-15% set aside in cash for strategic investments.   Say AAPL is down 35% over a given period and you really like the stock and its future.  You could maintain your base portfolio and utilize your strategic cash to load up on AAPL.   

 

Or for instance, a few weeks ago before the COVID-19 correction really started ramping up, I made a post at 2:00 on a Friday that it wouldn't be a bad idea to use some cash to buy VXX or TVIX.  The price of VXX that Friday was around $13.  On monday morning at the open, it was $45.  That 10-15% of your strategic portfolio would have more than tripled in about 3 weeks.  Doesn't always work that way, but it's why you have some cash for strategic management.  

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23485

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m pulling out.  Once Joe Public sees games with no fans this shit will REALLY crater.  I’m the guy timing the market.  Flame away.  
 

This is that black swan.  

I'm starting to redeploy my trading account, in very very very small bites, on things that I don't mind holding on to for as long as it takes to rebound. My retirement accounts are still sidelined until further notice. 

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Not a cat

Not a cat 5704

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m pulling out.  Once Joe Public sees games with no fans this shit will REALLY crater.  I’m the guy timing the market.  Flame away.  
 

This is that black swan.  

On one hand, he's rich, has a nice boat and works with Goldman, on the other he's an Okie.  I'm legitimately torn, but my dumbass is staying in- it worked for me (eventually) in 2008.  To be clear, I certainly don't doubt he's right and the market will go lower but I'll never know when to get back in.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46130

Posted
Posted

Heads up on a minor play:  

UGA is an ETF tied to the price of gasoline.  Technically, it tries to mimic the daily change in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contract.  Suffice it to say, when the price of gas goes up, UGA goes up, and vice versa.  Perfectly?  No.  Good enough for investment?  In my mind, yes.

So the all-time low of UGA is $16.76, and the all-time high is $66.35.  Average share price over the life of the ETF is $39.77, and the median price is $34.95.

Today it is trading at $19.54, a price it hasn't hit since January, 2009.

Now, why would anyone want to invest in this ETF, since we don't know where the price of oil and gas are headed?  Well, because most of us buy gasoline, and do so on a regular basis.  Depending on how you feel about the price at the pump today (I'm seeing $1.76 in Austin), you could lock in years of gasoline purchases at that price buy putting some $ in UGA right now.  The airlines do it, although not with UGA and with far more sophistication.  Why shouldn't you?

Say you drive 12,000 miles per year in a vehicle averaging 25 mpg combined.  That means you consume 480 gallons of gas per year.  At "normal" pricing ($3/gal?  let's use that) you'd spend $1,440 per year on gas.  At today's prices, you'd only spend $845 per year, but how can you lock in today's prices?

By purchasing 43 shares of UGA ($845).

Or lock in two years of low cost gas and purchase 86 shares.  Or do whatever.

The point is, at some point in the future we are going to be paying much more than $1.76/gal for gas, and you can hedge those future price surges by buying UGA today.

 

(Not investment advice.)

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54429

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, whatever you're still in now, I don't see much of a point on getting out now. I'd be happy to hear someone correct me or offer a counter thought on this. Just check back in like 5 years. 

I think I'm going to bail on the LT Treasuries, because I can't imagine rates going any lower.  Will wait till tomorrow, because they got a dead cat bounce today.

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52-80

52-80 19246

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Heads up on a minor play:  

UGA is an ETF tied to the price of gasoline.  Technically, it tries to mimic the daily change in the price of the Benchmark Futures Contract.  Suffice it to say, when the price of gas goes up, UGA goes up, and vice versa.  Perfectly?  No.  Good enough for investment?  In my mind, yes.

So the all-time low of UGA is $16.76, and the all-time high is $66.35.  Average share price over the life of the ETF is $39.77, and the median price is $34.95.

Today it is trading at $19.54, a price it hasn't hit since January, 2009.

Now, why would anyone want to invest in this ETF, since we don't know where the price of oil and gas are headed?  Well, because most of us buy gasoline, and do so on a regular basis.  Depending on how you feel about the price at the pump today (I'm seeing $1.76 in Austin), you could lock in years of gasoline purchases at that price buy putting some $ in UGA right now.  The airlines do it, although not with UGA and with far more sophistication.  Why shouldn't you?

Say you drive 12,000 miles per year in a vehicle averaging 25 mpg combined.  That means you consume 480 gallons of gas per year.  At "normal" pricing ($3/gal?  let's use that) you'd spend $1,440 per year on gas.  At today's prices, you'd only spend $845 per year, but how can you lock in today's prices?

By purchasing 43 shares of UGA ($845).

Or lock in two years of low cost gas and purchase 86 shares.  Or do whatever.

The point is, at some point in the future we are going to be paying much more than $1.76/gal for gas, and you can hedge those future price surges by buying UGA today.

 

(Not investment advice.)

done.  took out a second mortgage on this bet.  if it fails, im sleeping in your backyard

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12061

Posted
Posted
Just now, HookEm said:

Wondering if something like Netflix might be a good shorter term play.  People are going to be stuck at home with nothing to do but watch TV. 

Maybe they’ll also chill.

How should I invest if I am anticipating a surge in births come December, January, and probably into February of next year?

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

On one hand, he's rich, has a nice boat and works with Goldman, on the other he's an Okie.  I'm legitimately torn, but my dumbass is staying in- it worked for me (eventually) in 2008.  To be clear, I certainly don't doubt he's right and the market will go lower but I'll never know when to get back in.

I moved money.  Saw tax hit and said fuck that.  So here we are.  
 

edit:  that’s why I don’t manage my own shit.  Too emotional.  

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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Loco

Loco 3754

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m pulling out.  Once Joe Public sees games with no fans this shit will REALLY crater.  I’m the guy timing the market.  Flame away.  
 

This is that black swan.  

I sold into the rally (dead cat) yesterday.   I'm a longterm buy&hold type of guy but I have 0 doubt this market is dropping out.  Monetary policy won't help supply side shocks.

That said I did not completely get out, I stayed in some positions.    I won't look to catch the knife, but I'm betting I'll have a good long time to think about when to get back in fully.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
On 2/5/2020 at 4:35 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

time for me to start putting money somewhere.  my current plan is to just open a vanguard account and buy some ETFs that track the indexes and start my learning that way.  good idea?

You guys!  I don't want to brag, but you can definitely see and upward swing since this post.

Vanguardiam-Leviosa.png

 

I really think I'm getting the hang of this!

 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14610

Posted
Posted

Another report from the retail front lines:

Consumers just keep buying en mass packaged food.  Basically, every day is like a Saturday from a sales standpoint.  Retail chains are still ordering mass amounts of product.  Anything they can.  Big Food has hit it's breaking point, out of product reserves, and is starting to ration product to key retail chains.  This varies wildly be item and company but production will not be able to keep up if this keeps going and I suspect it will only get worse.

You're not getting hand sanitizer any time soon.

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