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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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aggie08

aggie08 21734

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Loco said:

I sold into the rally (dead cat) yesterday.   I'm a longterm buy&hold type of guy but I have 0 doubt this market is dropping out.  Monetary policy won't help supply side shocks.

That said I did not completely get out, I stayed in some positions.    I won't look to catch the knife, but I'm betting I'll have a good long time to think about when to get back in fully.

I tried like hell to get out at the end of last week with Monday's drop looming, but couldn't end up selling most of my shares until close to Monday's low point [insert your own Aggie joke here]. But, like you, I'm pretty confident that it's still going to drop, so not sweating it too hard.

That said, I'm not a big fish in the market like some of you guys, so losing something like $50k throughout my accounts from my Feb. 21 balance still stings. One of the few times that I can legitimately say, "I should have listened to surly."

Edited by aggie08
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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HRSchenker

HRSchenker 2331

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Another report from the retail front lines:

Consumers just keep buying en mass packaged food.  Basically, every day is like a Saturday from a sales standpoint.  Retail chains are still ordering mass amounts of product.  Anything they can.  Big Food has hit it's breaking point, out of product reserves, and is starting to ration product to key retail chains.  This varies wildly be item and company but production will not be able to keep up if this keeps going and I suspect it will only get worse.

You're not getting hand sanitizer any time soon.

We got a shipment of hand sanitizer in this morning and we sold out in an hour.

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1695

Posted
Posted (edited)

I was completely out of the market...everything.  I think the general market has much more to fall as the corona virus hits and it starts impacting the bottom lines.   I don't expect to get back in for general stocks for 3 months. 

But, Oil stock are being hit with a double whammy; they may not have hit bottom, but I'm OK getting it at the current level.

I just bought Valero at $55.  It has a 52 week high of $101.  I have a limit order in for Marathon Petroleum at $30.5 that should trigger any minute. That has a 52 week high of $69. 

As long as these big boys don't go under, when life gets back to normal in a year, they should climb back to their earlier positions.

As far as these go, I just need to close my eyes and hold.

 

Edited by 0xdeadbeef
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Okie State

Okie State 3888

Posted
Posted
Another report from the retail front lines:
Consumers just keep buying en mass packaged food.  Basically, every day is like a Saturday from a sales standpoint.  Retail chains are still ordering mass amounts of product.  Anything they can.  Big Food has hit it's breaking point, out of product reserves, and is starting to ration product to key retail chains.  This varies wildly be item and company but production will not be able to keep up if this keeps going and I suspect it will only get worse.
You're not getting hand sanitizer any time soon.
What qualified as packaged food? Anything that's not 'fresh'?
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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Okie State said:
24 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:
Another report from the retail front lines:
Consumers just keep buying en mass packaged food.  Basically, every day is like a Saturday from a sales standpoint.  Retail chains are still ordering mass amounts of product.  Anything they can.  Big Food has hit it's breaking point, out of product reserves, and is starting to ration product to key retail chains.  This varies wildly be item and company but production will not be able to keep up if this keeps going and I suspect it will only get worse.
You're not getting hand sanitizer any time soon.

What qualified as packaged food? Anything that's not 'fresh'?

typically packaged on a shelf not frozen. eg. Ramen / chips/ et al

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Okie State

Okie State 3888

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Posted
This is really all reassuring.  Can’t wait til something like Ebola becomes a pandemic.  I’ll just buy up all the toilet paper and be trading a 6 pack of charmin for a fully automatic assault rifle.  Winning.   
I think all of this has proven out what we already knew. In a real global emergency, we are completely fucked.
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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14783

Posted
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2 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

typically packaged on a shelf not frozen. eg. Ramen / chips/ et al

 

4 minutes ago, Okie State said:
27 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:
Another report from the retail front lines:
Consumers just keep buying en mass packaged food.  Basically, every day is like a Saturday from a sales standpoint.  Retail chains are still ordering mass amounts of product.  Anything they can.  Big Food has hit it's breaking point, out of product reserves, and is starting to ration product to key retail chains.  This varies wildly be item and company but production will not be able to keep up if this keeps going and I suspect it will only get worse.
You're not getting hand sanitizer any time soon.

What qualified as packaged food? Anything that's not 'fresh'?

Correct.  Anything shelf stable, generally carried in the center part of the store.

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McFly

McFly 606

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This is really all reassuring.  Can’t wait til something like Ebola becomes a pandemic.  I’ll just buy up all the toilet paper and be trading giving a 6 pack of all my charmin for a to the guy with a fully automatic assault rifle.  Winning.   

fixed for apocalypse

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3358

Posted
Posted (edited)

i think UGA is a decent long term play.  but be careful with these ETFs that track an underlying anything.  these things can break.  as in the price of whatever they're tracking and the price of the etf can diverge and then trigger an event that causes the ETF to become worthless.  it's rare but it happens.  i haven't read the UGA prospectus so i'm not saying this is going to happen here, just food for thought.  

Edited by gsoda3
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15450

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Sixteen weeks for us.  Really hoping the predictions (hopes?) of a slowdown during summer are accurate.  

Congrats man!  I’ll keep that in mind knowing we’re in the same fight.  It’s made me a nervous wreck the last 4 weeks.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21326

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

if he throws one or two of the boat ornaments in on the deal, I am sure that he won't have any problem finding somebody who will arm him.  shit, I'll throw in a box of pmags.  

Oh I’m ok on that front.  I just find the people thinking this is the time to prepare for the apocalypse to be soft.  They’ll be the first to fold, regardless of how they’re armed. 

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4640

Posted
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25 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

At least the cocaine and hooker fund is skrong to quite skrong.  

Hey Friendo!  All joking aside, having a friend who’s an MD and had a strong hooker and coke fund sounds like the best apocalypse plan.  

21 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Please, no pictures of underdeveloped filipinas in this thread.  

Seconded. 
 

 

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3054

Posted
Posted

Didn’t think about a family being pregnant right now. Good luck to y’all with babies coming. It’s an incredible time in life when that happens...trusting everything will be ok...had many friends who’ve done home births by choice if it comes to that.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21326

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

There it is.

 

Feel better than I did this AM.  Raised some good cash.  Didn’t go crazy and dump things where I’d have been nailed w short term gains.  

No way in hell this doesn’t get worse.  We are still chalk full of patients who need testing and have none.  

 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21326

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m pulling out.  Once Joe Public sees games with no fans this shit will REALLY crater.  I’m the guy timing the market.  Flame away.  
 

This is that black swan.  

There it is.  No fans at march madness.  Barely got out.  Watch things crater. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

Posted
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8 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m pulling out.  Once Joe Public sees games with no fans this shit will REALLY crater.  I’m the guy timing the market.  Flame away.  
 

This is that black swan.  

The only risk that I can see to that thought is some sort of stimulus that had a short term impact on the market.

Long term there has to be news of virus containment to stop the decline

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5664

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m pulling out.  Once Joe Public sees games with no fans this shit will REALLY crater.  I’m the guy timing the market.  Flame away.  
 

This is that black swan.  

The only risk that I can see to that thought is some sort of stimulus that had a short term impact on the market.

Long term there has to be news of virus containment to stop the decline

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21326

Posted
Posted

Have a good amount of cash.  Would have to get really bad to wipe out gains from last 14 months on which we went on a tear...that bottom may be tested again.  I came in with a lot of what we sold a piece of the group for at S/P 2550.  I think it's obvious we might drop below that but long run I'm as bullish as ever. 

The underlying fundamentals were solid...just coming up with economic stimuli won't do much of anything...they're trying to quell the panic and you don't do that with economic stimuli,  you test more and show what is going on where with the fucking virus itself.  I won't CR this but any administration that leaves their constituency in the dark in a situation like this would be fucked.  You don't do that.  Without testing you err on the side of caution.  Caution is shutting everything down.  Yeah, that's really fucking bad for the economy. 

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Loco

Loco 3754

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The underlying fundamentals were solid...just coming up with economic stimuli won't do much of anything...they're trying to quell the panic and you don't do that with economic stimuli,  you test more and show what is going on where with the fucking virus itself.  I won't CR this but any administration that leaves their constituency in the dark in a situation like this would be fucked.  You don't do that.  Without testing you err on the side of caution.  Caution is shutting everything down.  Yeah, that's really fucking bad for the economy. 

This is the part where we disagree.  Panic is not what caused this "correction".  Have you walked around outside?    Market wide supply shocks in the form of disrupted manufacturing, reduced economic growth GDP, and reduced consumer spending (quarantines) ...  Combine that with an overheated market, a gas war, colossal stupidity that injects uncertainty (markets love that right?), and just a pinch of delusional politicking and bang...  it's on.

I hope for the best, but this thing will get really fucking ugly because the Red team just thinks this is a PR problem, sure some folks will die "just like the flu every year, just stop panicking!"

Based on what I see walking around in the real world 95% aren't focused on this as a real threat, never mind moved their money out of the market.   These swings are institutions using sophisticated trading algorithms.   John Q Public is not panicked....yet.

Edited by Loco
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21326

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Loco said:

This is the part where we disagree.  Panic is not what caused this "correction".  Have you walked around outside?    Market wide supply shocks in the form of disrupted manufacturing, reduced economic growth GDP, and reduced consumer spending (quarantines) ...  Combine that with an overheated market, a gas war, colossal stupidity that injects uncertainty (markets love that right?), and just a pinch of delusional politicking and bang...  it's on.

I hope for the best, but this thing will get really fucking ugly because the Red team just thinks this is a PR problem, sure some folks will die "just like the flu every year, just stop panicking!"

Based on what I see walking around in the real world 95% aren't focused on this as a real threat, never mind moved their money out of the market.   These swings are institutions using sophisticated trading algorithms.   John Q Public is not panicked....yet.

Those things  you mention are happening because people are panicked.  They may be panicked for good reason - I think they are...because nobody knows what is where.  Because we went out of our way NOT TO TEST.  This shit is legit pissing me off as I'm watching it get really shitty real time.  See where I posted several days ago I'm sure there's 30,000 plus cases here but we aren't testing so when we test wide scale it will immediately be over 100k cases.  

If on day one we were at O'hare and other international airports at least checking for fevers which takes 3 seconds per patient we could have stopped a lot of this even before a test was developed.  Either way, I think we are saying the same thing with differing reasons for what is going on.  I can barely make sense now as I get a headache arguing with complete morons left and right.  Nobody in here, of course.  

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