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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Captainant

Captainant 27671

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Yeah, sure.  It's a multi billion dollar business that is being sidelined, until who knows when.  No effect on the markets at all.

This market has been priced based on confidence, not on fundamentals. I could see traders seeing it as a bellweather

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mdmost

mdmost 43002

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I would imagine that the MLB will follow somewhat.  They don’t have to do that tonight but it might be good move to start the wheels in motion as opening day approaches. 

There was already talk of teams not traveling to play San Francisco, Oakland, and Seattle and instead switching locations to the home of the team those 3  were supposed to host. March Madness is next as it's more immediate. Then MLB and MLS. NFL isn't affected other than the draft maybe goes to an online system. 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10515

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Yeah, sure.  It's a multi billion dollar business that is being sidelined, until who knows when.  No effect on the markets at all.

The NBA has $8 billion in annual revenue. Not all of which will be lost. The market has lost $4 trillion in value this week. Get some perspective. 

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conVINCEd

conVINCEd 21469

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TonyTexas said:

The NBA has $8 billion in annual revenue. Not all of which will be lost. The market has lost $4 trillion in value this week. Get some perspective. 

The NBA is a pretty progressive organization that most people in America are very familiar with.  It’s not about value lost, it’s about perception.

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32394

Posted
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Just now, TonyTexas said:

The NBA has $8 billion in annual revenue. Not all of which will be lost. The market has lost $4 trillion in value this week. Get some perspective. 

I do have perspective.

The NBA cancels, which means more than likely the NHL will follow suit, which means that MLB may not start their season on time.

Plus, this isn't some convention in Vegas closing; it's a fucking professional sports league.  The market doesn't need much to go into a free fall; it has zero confidence in the federal government at this point, and now, private enterprises are shuttering for an indefinite period.  

As I type this, futures have already lost another 100 points to go over 1000.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m pulling out.  Once Joe Public sees games with no fans this shit will REALLY crater.  I’m the guy timing the market.  Flame away.  
 

This is that black swan.  

Once the chaos around me calms down I'll post screen grabs of convos with my 'pros'.  Got a lot out luckily, but not all of it.  Better to be lucky, than good...

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Lurch

Lurch 5930

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Posted
Once the chaos around me calms down I'll post screen grabs of convos with my 'pros'.  Got a lot out luckily, but not all of it.  Better to be lucky, than good...


I made my requests on Sat but 401k didn’t process until EOB Monday, so I took a bath. Thinking it was still right
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Blotto

Blotto 23516

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

How does that affect options, and their expiration?

Asking for a friend who is very very interested in this.

Yeah the risk that they will just halt trading for some period of time caused me to try and do some research on this last night on that very question, but I didnt find what I was looking for. I guess post 9/11 was the last time the market was shut down for a week or so, so the answer probably lies there. 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

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Posted

Sorry, the futures are not a halt.  It just backstops the fall at 5% but trades still occur.  Need 7% tomorrow to halt again, and 13% after that. The third is at 20% or something, at which point just shut it down for the rest of the month and lets regroup in April. 

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3021

Posted
Posted (edited)
  • Level 1: A drop of 7% from the prior day's closing price of the S&P 500 triggers a 15-minute trading halt. Trading is not halted if the drop occurs at or after 3:25 p.m. ET.
  • Level 2: A drop of 13% triggers a 15-minute halt. Trading is not halted if the drop occurs at or after 3:25 p.m. ET.
  • Level 3: A drop of 20% triggers a halt for the rest of the trading day, and trading resumes the following day.

 

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/09/813682567/how-stock-market-circuit-breakers-work

Edited by Tailgate
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gsoda3

gsoda3 3262

Posted
Posted

Futures trading is different from regular hours trading. In futures trading once the price hits -5% it can't go any lower. It can go higher but it can't trade lower.

During market hours, 830am central to 3pm central, you have circuit breakers at 7, 13, and 20 percent. Those are calculated from the yesterday's previous closing price at 3pm. Once it hits 7 or 13 pct* all markets are halted for 15 minutes. If it hits 20, trading ceases for the day but futures start back up at 5pm.

*Unless it's the last 30 minutes of the day in which case there will be no halt.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89674

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Yeah, sure.  It's a multi billion dollar business that is being sidelined, until who knows when.  No effect on the markets at all.

Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson catching it will freak plenty of folks out.  Hanks is in his 60s, so may not be too smooth of a recovery.  

It’s going to draw a lot of attention from a lot of folks, combined with the NBA. 

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3021

Posted
Posted

For those that trade regularly...when things become “normal” again...wether it’s six months, a year, two years...what stock/sector do you think will bounce back the fastest? I’m not a timer...just curious as I like to quietly watch active traders from the stands.

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

Posted
Posted (edited)

i don't trade regularly, but..

manufacturing. which encompasses a lot of industries.  

narrator*  we are dependent upon China and its supply chain.  don't underestimate the cheap value of unregulated labor.

don't know shit about oil though. that was a curve ball.

Edited by Hmmm
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5550

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Loco said:

So this is fun, who knew we'd get to have a market crash 3-4 times a week?

What a time to be alive!

Yeah, scanning a few sites this am, I saw a headline "Dow plunges 1,000 pre-market" and I thought 1,000 is just an everyday occurence these days.
Plunging is what would happen today, if there were not circuit breakers in place.

Still looking to find what happens to options when the markets are not open

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yeah, scanning a few sites this am, I saw a headline "Dow plunges 1,000 pre-market" and I thought 1,000 is just an everyday occurence these days.
Plunging is what would happen today, if there were not circuit breakers in place.

Still looking to find what happens to options when the markets are not open

The market will open just like normal.   Options don’t trade in pre-market hours to begin with.  If trading is halted on the exchange for 15 minutes due to the 7% down circuit breaker being hit, options trading also halts for 15 minutes and resumes when exchange trading resumes.  

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2273

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

40% retracement.

This seems plausible. An s and p level of 2k is a psychological barrier as well. I got out almost completely last April as some of you know and have been very conservative. I’m jumping back in at 2350 and then again at 2k if it goes that low. I will probably shut my eyes and hold at 2k regardless of if it gets worse than that. I’m going to start putting all of my 401k work contributions at 100% vigax starting in a couple weeks . Currently at 30 percent vigax and 70 % money market. My main account with most of my money has been 100 percent money market since April. Always scary jumping back in. 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5323

Posted
Posted

I don’t think enough people appreciate the psychology here.  Once the numbers of dying increase its going to get worse.  
 

I think it’s a six month drop to under 2k on the S&p and then another six months to get back to growth.  I thought when this started it would be a short Sharp correction but every government in the west has mishandled the virus so badly it’s going to shake confidence.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13512

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I don’t think enough people appreciate the psychology here.  Once the numbers of dying increase its going to get worse.  
 

I think it’s a six month drop to under 2k on the S&p and then another six months to get back to growth.  I thought when this started it would be a short Sharp correction but every government in the west has mishandled the virus so badly it’s going to shake confidence.

In an attempt to reduce panic and temper financial markets, they’ve raised panic and destroyed markets.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5550

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

We will hit that first one, what's the second breaker hit at?  We may have the trifecta tomorrow. 

 

21 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Any action on O/U to halt?  I'm going 5 minutes. 

 

8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Line has moved to 2.5 minutes.

 

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’m going 47 seconds 

My bet is less than 2 minutes of trading today, that is to trigger all 3 circuit breakers.
7% in less than 30 seconds, pause, 13% in under 1 minute, pause again, by 10:02 NYSE time the 20% breaker is pulled and they all walk home - because the beer virus has closed the bars and public transportation.

I'm thinking that they are going to pull the plug on tomorrow (at least), just like post 9-11. Trading into this news cycle is like going into a void and no one has any vision of what is coming next. 

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