Markets still falling like whoa

[aggie08 21588]

1 minute ago, TexasCPA said:

RIP to those selling today. 

Why? Got a nice little bump in my last remaining shares before selling.  Every Monday since Feb 24 has been a beat down.

[ChiTownDoc 21229]

10 hours ago, Okie State said:

 

 

The 180 turn is why it freaked me out. You pulled out a few thousand Dow points ago though which is why at this point I stay in. I think it probably goes down a few thousand more, but I also wouldn't be surprised by any other scenario. A complete shit show.

 

CoronaCat bounce.  There will be more pain.  

[babysdaddy 2730]

7 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I would expect a sell-off near the end of the day as wouldn't many traders want to switch to cash.  It's a long time until Monday morning and who knows that could happen.

the exact opposite happened in Australia yesterday which is what led to our open.  And everyone here knows how we closed today.  Check out PBF on the last 5 minutes of trading.  That is a fucking short squeeze

Timing isn't possible, no matter what people may claim.  Average in, take gains when possible, and be clinical about.  No emotion.  If you're 35, do your job and take care of your family.  Do not watch your 401k.  Next week won't be like this one because news will get better but there will be a bit of a pullback.  

[jimmyjazz 46479]

I'm completely out of the market save a tiny O&G investment that is now about half what it was two weeks ago.  Regardless, I am not hoping for more pain.  It ripples through other markets -- it will start to affect real estate, etc.  (Not that real estate isn't due for a pullback, but I'm sure not looking for it to happen.)

[Nice Guy Eddie 13548]

3 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

the exact opposite happened in Australia yesterday which is what led to our open.  And everyone here knows how we closed today.  Check out PBF on the last 5 minutes of trading.  That is a fucking short squeeze

Timing isn't possible, no matter what people may claim.  Average in, take gains when possible, and be clinical about.  No emotion.  If you're 35, do your job and take care of your family.  Do not watch your 401k.  Next week won't be like this one because news will get better but there will be a bit of a pullback.  

100% I was wrong about today’s close. I’m still slowly buying back in and didn’t buy or sell today.   Let’s see what next week brings. 

[Loco 3754]

Shit is going to hit the fan on Monday.  Lots of disconnects with the "information " presented today.  That big flow chart?  lol

 

my .02.   I'm out for a while, don't need to get in at the very bottom, we aren't even close imho

[gsoda3 3302]

A decade and a half and I've never seen a close like that. Somebody, or somebodies, with incredibly deep pockets was closing out of positions. Now we wait to hear what funds blew up and had to do that.

[bluto 4947]

what gets me is the crazy extremes between this week and today, but then realizing the unwinding of the financial impact of this is going to take many months from all the lost wages. it's not just people spending less money and having it socked away b/c they were holed up at home, it's an incredible shit ton of people that just aren't bringing income in right now. 

[ChiTownDoc 21229]

2 hours ago, Loco said:

Shit is going to hit the fan on Monday.  Lots of disconnects with the "information " presented today.  That big flow chart?  lol

 

my .02.   I'm out for a while, don't need to get in at the very bottom, we aren't even close imho

Yep.  Just completely talking out of their ass.  Google is like we are doing what?  
 

He might as well have said he was gonna nuke it.  

[Beau Vine 54881]

8 hours ago, Anastasis said:

cant imagine buying in at end of day. 

I tried to buy some SQQQ but didn't get in in time.

[Wally Fairway 5600]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

what gets me is the crazy extremes between this week and today, but then realizing the unwinding of the financial impact of this is going to take many months from all the lost wages. it's not just people spending less money and having it socked away b/c they were holed up at home, it's an incredible shit ton of people that just aren't bringing income in right now. 

Yeah, it's not just what everyone sees on TV news or in the headlines, it's thousands of small companies and individuals who we've never thought about or heard of that are going to be laid off it have their hours cut, of work millions of school kids home for weeks it's a parent who has to take a leave. 

And that snowballs into late or missed car payments, mortgage payments, or small businesses that can't make their bank payments on time.

I think it will be June, at the earliest, that the financial effects are seen it reports.

Just my 2 cents

[gsoda3 3302]

21 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

All these "market pauses" are kind of a joke nowadays. There are lots of off exchange pools where you can trade anything. If the NYSE closes, it means virtually nothing. All the firms can clear trades on other exchanges. It's all digital nowadays.

no, no trades can be cleared after circuit breakers hit. 

[futureman 22565]

On 3/13/2020 at 3:31 AM, Thetexashammer said:

All these "market pauses" are kind of a joke nowadays. There are lots of off exchange pools where you can trade anything. If the NYSE closes, it means virtually nothing. All the firms can clear trades on other exchanges. It's all digital nowadays.

 

4 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

no, no trades can be cleared after circuit breakers hit. 

[XYZ 2154]

13 hours ago, aggie08 said:

I'm still pretty comfortable with my decision to get out.  We've got a ways to go down yet.

I do hate that the stock market puts me and many others in the position to selfishly hope that the market gets worse (which will likely correlate with more people getting sick and companies hurting) before it gets better.  Feels dirty.

There’s something you can do about it.

[gsoda3 3302]

To expound, when circuit breaker halts are tripped all exchanges- arca, NASDAQ, edgex, floor orders, dark pool orders, etc etc etc- are halted. It's a system wide halt that involves not only the NYSE but everyone in the world. No trades are going thru. If a trade somehow does go through it's going to be reviewed and broken.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13153]

8 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

And that snowballs into late or missed car payments, mortgage payments, or small businesses that can't make their bank payments on time.

Banks are going to have to work with people. They have no choice. The percentage of the population who can make their payments without working is really small and they sure as hell can’t afford to default on everything.

[Thetexashammer 1062]

2 hours ago, futureman said:

 

I'm not eyes on in terms of what you can and can't trade. But what about the other exchanges and dark pools? Maybe a retail customer can't trade, but there is all kinds of trading that goes on outside of the major exchanges. When one exchange shuts down, that's only the one exchange.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13548]

54 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Banks are going to have to work with people. They have no choice. The percentage of the population who can make their payments without working is really small and they sure as hell can’t afford to default on everything.

I can speak from experience from family members that lost their homes and had income hardships during hurricane Harvey. Bank of America gave a payment deference by a simple request. Now when the 3 or 6 month period was up, technically you owed the entire deferred payments at once but they would also work with you to rework your mortgage to effectively push back your entire mortgage 6 months. I believe you has to apply for the last part and demonstrate that you couldn’t pay it. But that’s only fair. 
 

edit: one unknown is how banks can handle a national emergency. Sure they can make special rules when one city, state or even region has a natural disaster. But basically 100% of the country or world? This is where the govt might have to prop up banks to allow them to work with customers.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Parliament 14377]

They are able to shut ALL of that down?  Wow.

[gsoda3 3302]

I'm not eyes on in terms of what you can and can't trade. But what about the other exchanges and dark pools? Maybe a retail customer can't trade, but there is all kinds of trading that goes on outside of the major exchanges. When one exchange shuts down, that's only the one exchange.

Read what I wrote a couple posts above yours.

They are able to shut ALL of that down?  Wow.

Yes. Everything is halted. All exchanges. All dark pools. There is price discovery occuring during the halt in that you can put out some orders, but nothing is getting filled until the 15 minutes is up. If by chance something does get filled during the halt it WILL get broken.

[Steel Shank 9440]

Put my sell orders in Thursday evening. Transaction didn't happen until later in the day Friday, so I got a 5.3% bump before pulling out. 

[Parliament 14377]

I gave your mom a 5.3% bump last night before pulling out.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Parliament

[Steel Shank 9440]

Did you short her?

[bluto 4947]

I gave your mom a 5.3% bump last night before pulling out.

5.3% on a penny stock

[Wally Fairway 5600]

I'm not sure where the right place for this is, but I'll try it here
although I think it should have been titled "Saving Private Equity"

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

Trump just talked about replacing the Fed chair because he wants negative interest rates.  Monday might be interesting.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13548]

I listened to his speech while he was bragging about how he set a record of raising the index prices yesterday. Funny how he ignores he crashed them the day before. He’s too insufferable to listen for long. I feel sorry the reporters who’s job it is to cover him.

[Incredulity 11699]

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Trump just talked about replacing the Fed chair because he wants negative interest rates.  Monday might be interesting.

Trump shitting on Powell shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Now if he pulls the trigger that’s something completely different.

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

If he cans Powell that normally would send the market into free fall.  However, these days the market will probably go up 30% in 15 minutes because why not?

One thing we can be sure of though is dotard won’t have the balls to fire Powell himself.  He’ll make Munchkin do it.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets

[bernorange 8375]

8 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Trump just talked about replacing the Fed chair ...

I wasn't aware that SCOTUS had ruled on the CFPB case yet.  I don't see anything in the news feeds.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/03/811718978/supreme-court-casts-doubt-on-independence-of-consumer-protection-agency

[TwiceHorn 31686]

I think the fact that the presser wasn't all Trump mumbling and word salading, and involved others from outside government, was immensely reassuring in a sort of "anyone but Trump" way.

[Anastasis 23514]

how much does the market drop when trump's covid test comes back positive?

[UTexasFight 9627]

how much does the market drop when trump's covid test comes back positive?

Wouldn’t that be a cause for a YUUUUGE jump?

[ClubWhatever 12159]

Based on a sample size of 1 store observed on 1 day, I think Lowe’s is going to have a record quarter.   I mean, what else are you going to do?

[LTtxfan 49406]

22 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Trump caused a short squeeze at close of market today by delaying announcement till 20 minutes before close.

Nice to see more of the private sector stepping up to help with this health crisis... impressive group of CEO's standing along side Trump at today's news conference.

Heard an interesting discussion about how some of the largest 1-Day stock market up days (like 3/13/20) occur during Bear Markets... often caused by shorts rushing in to cover their exposures.

Supposedly this happened a few times during the 2008 meltdown...

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by LTtxfan

[Thetexashammer 1062]

Worth mentioning that one of the things no one has calculated is the cost to states and localities in terms of their pension plan unfunded liabilities. Basically, they were fucked before this. They are mega fucked now. Bunch of downgrades coming, Illinois leading the way down.

There are specific requirements to keep pension funds funded. Politicians made deliberate decisions not to fund the pensions appropriately. It's no different than simply paying a portion of your weekly paycheck. It's theft, which is ordinarily a crime.

I personally believe the people responsible should be thrown in jail, but I have no hope of that ever happening. I'd be OK with drawn and quartered as well.

[dcar00 14609]

4 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

Based on a sample size of 1 store observed on 1 day, I think Lowe’s is going to have a record quarter.   I mean, what else are you going to do?

that's exactly what I texted someone yesterday.  buy Home Depot and Lowes.  can't watch live sports or take kid to game/practice. better find a way to be "busy" or potentially get divorced.

[Incredulity 11699]

8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

that's exactly what I texted someone yesterday.  buy Home Depot and Lowes.  can't watch live sports or take kid to game/practice. better find a way to be "busy" or potentially get divorced.

Kroger, WalMart, Costco have probably done a months worth of business in 1week

[aggie08 21588]

Wrong thread.

Edited March 15, 2020 by aggie08

[52-80 19281]

5 hours ago, ClubWhatever said:

Based on a sample size of 1 store observed on 1 day, I think Lowe’s is going to have a record quarter.   I mean, what else are you going to do?

Dollartreegeneral was a good friend of mine the last go round. 

 

This time, I'm thinking Ross instead.

 

I also placed an order for one of the cruiseline because, hey, life's short.

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

Put this in the other thread:

 

Report from the Retail Front:

Last few days have been what I suspected would happen but it’s still a surreal sight along with the actual numbers.  Complete panic buying a national scale but without the panic.  Been in lots of stores lately and it’s fascinating.  People shopping at a normal pace but you can tell they’re thinking about what they might have to cook 10 days from now.  LOTS of paper.  Holy fuck lots of paper.  The shopping baskets are all crammed full of product.    

Hand sanitizer is basically depleted in the industry.  Paper is close.  One very large consumer goods company has shipped it’s last case of paper from what I understand.  They’re making more, mind you, but they can’t make it fast enough to meet demand.

With everything else, it just depends on the category, really.  Hand sanitizer, cleaning products, and paper were the first wave of products but food was the second wave.  Big Retail start putting in massive orders about two weeks ago, only to order more and more since then.  The thing is, they’re selling it all.  Big Food’s safety stock is essentially gone and with the huge spike we’ve seen the past 4 days, Big Food can only fill about 80% of the orders coming in.  (That number is usually over 98%.)  There’s enough food in the network right now to cover for the next week.  (By network, I mean in the stores, retail warehouses, and in transit.)  After that, we’ll see periodic shortages and big suppliers will have to start allocating customers.

What I’ve seen the last 4 days is something I never thought I’d see and I hope I never see again.  The consumer supply chain is extremely strained from the manufacturing plants, the trucking lines, DC’s, and stores.  It simply can’t handle the volume.

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

HEB putting limits on a whole list of items.  Walmart reducing their hours along with HEB and Publix.  (Except more of these as we go along.)

https://newsroom.heb.com/product-purchasing-limits/

[UTexasFight 9627]

Worth mentioning that one of the things no one has calculated is the cost to states and localities in terms of their pension plan unfunded liabilities. Basically, they were fucked before this. They are mega fucked now. Bunch of downgrades coming, Illinois leading the way down.

What liabilities are left when the retirees/pensioners are dead because of coronavirus

[Incredulity 11699]

36 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Put this in the other thread:

 

Report from the Retail Front:

Last few days have been what I suspected would happen but it’s still a surreal sight along with the actual numbers.  Complete panic buying a national scale but without the panic.  Been in lots of stores lately and it’s fascinating.  People shopping at a normal pace but you can tell they’re thinking about what they might have to cook 10 days from now.  LOTS of paper.  Holy fuck lots of paper.  The shopping baskets are all crammed full of product.    

Hand sanitizer is basically depleted in the industry.  Paper is close.  One very large consumer goods company has shipped it’s last case of paper from what I understand.  They’re making more, mind you, but they can’t make it fast enough to meet demand.

With everything else, it just depends on the category, really.  Hand sanitizer, cleaning products, and paper were the first wave of products but food was the second wave.  Big Retail start putting in massive orders about two weeks ago, only to order more and more since then.  The thing is, they’re selling it all.  Big Food’s safety stock is essentially gone and with the huge spike we’ve seen the past 4 days, Big Food can only fill about 80% of the orders coming in.  (That number is usually over 98%.)  There’s enough food in the network right now to cover for the next week.  (By network, I mean in the stores, retail warehouses, and in transit.)  After that, we’ll see periodic shortages and big suppliers will have to start allocating customers.

What I’ve seen the last 4 days is something I never thought I’d see and I hope I never see again.  The consumer supply chain is extremely strained from the manufacturing plants, the trucking lines, DC’s, and stores.  It simply can’t handle the volume.

There definitely will be a valley downstream.

Lots of demand has been pulled forward.

Not so bad for perishable products. Probably not so great for toilet paper and frozen peas in say June and July.

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

17 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

There definitely will be a valley downstream.

Lots of demand has been pulled forward.

Not so bad for perishable products. Probably not so great for toilet paper and frozen peas in say June and July.

The question is has true demand changed?  If people are holed up in their houses for three weeks, they’ll use all of this.

Prolly depends on the category, though.  I think they’ll use the food.  The amount of paper bought has been astonishing.  Same with hand sanitizer.

Edited March 15, 2020 by Aqua Buddha

[Incredulity 11699]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The question is has true demand changed?  If people are holed up in their houses for three weeks, they’ll use all of this.

Bend over foodservice?

If the death toll isn’t in the hundreds, maybe even thousands, by Friday I would expect alot of people to be out and about.

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

5 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Bend over foodservice?

If the death toll isn’t in the hundreds, maybe even thousands, by Friday I would expect alot of people to be out and about.

Think about consumer behavior.  Someone doomsday prepping isn't going out to Slobster in a few days.  Also, being how tight the average consumer is, they might not have money next weekend after they blew their wad now.  Yes, they'll go stir crazy but it also depends on what happens between now and then.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26684]

Restaurant traffic seems normal in Austin tonight, but it’s got a last hurrah feel.

[Blotto 23709]

25 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Restaurant traffic seems normal in Austin tonight, but it’s got a last hurrah feel.

I was out a bit today and just about every parking lot for commercial strip malls and bars/restaurants seemed about average for a Saturday afternoon. Probably good for business, but not so good for slowing the spread of the virus. I think the government is going to have to eventually takes steps like you see France and Germany taking to keep people from mingling. fucking sucks. 

[Aqua Buddha 14656]

30 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Restaurant traffic seems normal in Austin tonight, but it’s got a last hurrah feel.

I had someone tell me that a Beef O'Brady's was packed and I said "That's a shitty choice for a last good meal."