Markets still falling like whoa

[LTtxfan 49196]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I didn't even notice it.  While they were sucking each other's cocks, I was too busy trying to move heaven and earth trying to feed the country.  

Twenty minutes before Friday's market close, the CEO's standing behind Trump at the news conference provided some short-term confidence in the markets... resulting in a squeeze on some of the short positions....

On Friday the SP500 closed up 230pts (+9.29%)

[Anastasis 23473]

23 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m sitting in cash until S&P 2000.  I’d be surprised if we don’t get there.  They need drastic measures.  These are drastic fucking times.  

If we see S&P 2000 in the next two weeks I will be half a step closer to balling out like ChiTown in the gazebo poolside. 

[Anastasis 23473]

16 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I wouldn't either.  It's why I bailed on Friday.  That last hour was complete fool's gold.

My wife's 401k is still fulling invested.  My trading account is short, and my retirement account is cash. I am starting to regret my advice to her to just leave it alone because the time horizon will work in her favor.  It's all shit. 

[Parliament 14260]

Dumb question probably, but why wouldn't they halt trading on the NYSE and Nasdaq? Maybe a better question is when would they halt (for multiple days) not just a session?

Under all the fear and panic there ARE some rather damning fundamentals. Gotta let the market sort that all out...without falling completely apart. Imho, the limits we have in place do a pretty good job of splitting the baby.

And I looked it up. The NYSE closed for 4 days after 911, one day when JFK was killed. (Also 2 days for Super Storm Sandy, but I assume that was because of flooding and such. Not panic.)

[Okie State 3821]

My wife's 401k is still fulling invested.  My trading account is short, and my retirement account is cash. I am starting to regret my advice to her to just leave it alone because the time horizon will work in her favor.  It's all shit. 

I agree it's all shit, but I keep coming back to the fact that if this is a full out collapse of modern society and doesn't recover in the next 5, 10, 20+ years...none of it matters anyway. We'll be restarting from scratch with an entirely new system. Retirement accounts will be the least of our worries.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

5 minutes ago, Okie State said:

11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I agree it's all shit, but I keep coming back to the fact that if this is a full out collapse of modern society and doesn't recover in the next 5, 10, 20+ years...none of it matters anyway. We'll be restarting from scratch with an entirely new system.

I don’t want to say that will happen.  But nobody can say it won’t.  The reality is the govt will need to eat a lot of this.  If this only hit the US we would be fucked.  But the dollar will continue to be the best of a shitty bunch.  
 

Nobody wants to hear it but this may go away then hit again in fall.  Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.  

Edited March 16, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[Anastasis 23473]

flatlined.

 

 

[Anastasis 23473]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Nobody wants to hear it but this may go away then hit again in fall.  Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.  

Yep. It probably wont flush away during summer, and we see another spike in fall. And that is close to a best case scenario. I am sick to my stomach. 

[LTtxfan 49196]

 

[Okie State 3821]

I don’t want to say that will happen.  But nobody can say it won’t.  The reality is the govt will need to eat a lot of this.  If this only hit the US we would be fucked.  But the dollar will continue to be the best of a shitty bunch.  
 
Nobody wants to hear it but this may go away then hit again in fall.  Makes me nauseous just thinking about it.  

I think there's a slim, but real chance of a total collapse.

I think there's almost a 100% chance the virus slows down in the Summer, people forget about it, and it comes roaring back in the Fall. Almost like this has happened before...

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

20 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I think there's a slim, but real chance of a total collapse.

I think there's almost a 100% chance the virus slows down in the Summer, people forget about it, and it comes roaring back in the Fall. Almost like this has happened before...

Man I believe everything you said, but I can't believe people will forget that quickly.  Remember - the deaths have not even hit yet.  They are 100% coming. 

[Errestaurants 2570]

25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Yep. It probably wont flush away during summer, and we see another spike in fall. And that is close to a best case scenario. I am sick to my stomach. 

Any chance of a vaccine by then?

[Anastasis 23473]

1 minute ago, Errestaurants said:

Any chance of a vaccine by then?

Under normal situations and approval timelines? Absolutely not. 

Maybe we can fast track something without compromising safety, but it will take a huge public health lift. 

 

[Okie State 3821]

Man I believe everything you said, but I can't believe people will forget that quickly.  Remember - the deaths have not even hit yet.  They are 100% coming. 

Unfortunately the deaths are the only thing that will get peoples attention. Once loved ones start dying even the most ignorant among us will wake up. Of course by then it will be too late and they'll point the finger of blame at someone else.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

I do not agree with some of the language below.  Will elaborate later. 
 

 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

[Okie State 3821]

That seems pretty positive considering the circumstances.

[StruggleBus 3922]

This thread is more depressing than the covid 19 thread. Fuck. So I either sell it all, or don’t bother because we’re all fucked anyway?

[Anastasis 23473]

15 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

[Okie State 3821]

This thread is more depressing than the covid 19 thread. Fuck. So I either sell it all, or don’t bother because we’re all fucked anyway?

Yes. Or get into options that you don't understand.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

15 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not agree with some of the language below.  Will elaborate later. 
 

 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

Two of my bigger issues: 

1. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

 Classic market guys:  slowing the rate of transmission and giving the healthcare system more time to deal will save thousands of lives.  But yes, it will be financially more painful.  But to say the quarantine is ineffective when it will save tens of thousands of lives is absurd. 

2. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

 This is funny because pretty much nobody I've spoken with at JPM/GS etc has said we'll see a full recovery in the second half of the year.  Just an odd comment considering they admit world GDP is going to be growing at 2% which is the worst in 30 years.  9/11 didn't have near the effects we will see from COVID...I certainly hope these guys are right though. 

[UTGrad98 2276]

20 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not agree with some of the language below.  Will elaborate later. 
 

 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

This makes me feel better.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

LOL, just as I was drafting my response...and damn it now it looks like "I" said that.  Got damn. 

[Blotto 23523]

21 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

having a hard time reconciling these two statements. 

[Anastasis 23473]

 

6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

LOL, just as I was drafting my response...and damn it now it looks like "I" said that.  Got damn. 

You caveated it well in your original post. The quote function is a lying fucking liar. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Anastasis

[babysdaddy 2725]

Curious why some above have said they’re waiting for 2000 to buy? Arbitrary number or anything driving that?

Fear is everywhere. There is no analysis that makes sense given people have no idea what the long term impact is. But I believe this is temporary. And I believe very strongly that picking individual blue chip names that have lost half their value in 3 weeks will be positive over the next 12 to 36 months.

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

We should be applying every ounce of pressure we can on SA to generate some positive news. 

We should bomb the shit out of them.

[Anastasis 23473]

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

We should bomb the shit out of them.

But only because I am on short term SPY puts. 

 

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Couldn’t the market recover this year IF the market initially overreacts over the next few months?

[Alvin89 108]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Couldn’t the market recover this year IF the market initially overreacts over the next few months?

I think anything is on the table at this point. 

[Skipper 6135]

1 hour ago, Okie State said:

I think there's almost a 100% chance the virus slows down in the Summer, people forget about it, and it comes roaring back in the Fall. Almost like this has happened before...

If it does slow down though, I think there is a decent chance someone somewhere figures out something that helps immensely.   Vaccine is clearly not in the cards by the fall but there are so many damn people working on this worldwide that I think odds are there will be 'best practices' established to drive down CFR if we get a reprieve. Particularly existing drugs.  Google remdesivir (currently being used by physicians here on most extreme cases) and "camostat mesylate" (potentially stops infections?) as examples and I'm sure there are lots being looked at with zero press. And from a market perspective I think this is the kind of stuff to watch.  Because even if we don't have a vaccine or a cure, if there are drugs out there that could actually turn this into "just the flu" once scaled and drive CFR down significantly, then it seems like the market would skyrocket over night.

[Anastasis 23473]

futures still pegged at the backstop. 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I do not agree with some of the language below.  Will elaborate later. 
 

 

Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

Very good synopsis.  Agree with all that, especially the last paragraph.  I was saying that last week.  I’m not worried about the structure of the economy.  I was in 2008.

[UTGrad98 2276]

53 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Curious why some above have said they’re waiting for 2000 to buy? Arbitrary number or anything driving that?

Fear is everywhere. There is no analysis that makes sense given people have no idea what the long term impact is. But I believe this is temporary. And I believe very strongly that picking individual blue chip names that have lost half their value in 3 weeks will be positive over the next 12 to 36 months.

Its a double whammy to buy. A 40% drop from the S and P high of 3383 is 2029. Also 2k is a psychological barrier. Dow 20k is one too but Im not holding my breath on that. I think it pops briefly when the dow hits 20k then keeps heading down. My only angst isnt whether to go all in at 2k....I am...Its going to be if I take potential profits thinking it will retest or fall even lower. 

A couple more points...LOTS of people are home right now and for the foreseeable future. Trading seems like a good way to pass the time. I think 2k S/P will be a big bounce especially if it is within the next 2-5 days.

Edited March 16, 2020 by UTGrad98
disclaimer: I know nothing and am horribly conservative

[Royalfan5 2354]

Grains have bounced a little tonight. Will be interesting to see if they and livestock separate a bit especially with people going apeshit on meat cases the last few days.

[Blotto 23523]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

If it does slow down though, I think there is a decent chance someone somewhere figures out something that helps immensely.   Vaccine is clearly not in the cards by the fall but there are so many damn people working on this worldwide that I think odds are there will be 'best practices' established to drive down CFR if we get a reprieve. Particularly existing drugs.  Google remdesivir (currently being used by physicians here on most extreme cases) and "camostat mesylate" (potentially stops infections?) as examples and I'm sure there are lots being looked at with zero press. And from a market perspective I think this is the kind of stuff to watch.  Because even if we don't have a vaccine or a cure, if there are drugs out there that could actually turn this into "just the flu" once scaled and drive CFR down significantly, then it seems like the market would skyrocket over night.

Lets say that breakthrough happens in 3 months. And in the meantime, we have endured a continued global economic standstill. How many small businesses will have already gone under, and what will the economic meltdown reveal in that time. The market has been artificially inflated for such a long time that a correction of the current magnitude (20%) was warranted in my opinion even without this pandemic. Your scenario could certainly halt the slide, but I'm not sure it justifies the market skyrocketing back to where it was in Feb. Even at today's prices,  the 5 year CAGR of the S&P would be approx 5%. The 10 year CAGR would be 8%, which is the average annual return of the S&P index since adopting 500 stocks in 1957. 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Two of my bigger issues: 

1. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

 Classic market guys:  slowing the rate of transmission and giving the healthcare system more time to deal will save thousands of lives.  But yes, it will be financially more painful.  But to say the quarantine is ineffective when it will save tens of thousands of lives is absurd. 

2. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

 This is funny because pretty much nobody I've spoken with at JPM/GS etc has said we'll see a full recovery in the second half of the year.  Just an odd comment considering they admit world GDP is going to be growing at 2% which is the worst in 30 years.  9/11 didn't have near the effects we will see from COVID...I certainly hope these guys are right though. 

I agree with this, too.  They're underrated how this is going to change consumer behavior.  That's a huge unknown.  

[UTexasFight 9454]

Where do I bet the over on child births in Dec/Jan

[Wally Fairway 5550]

46 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

futures still pegged at the backstop. 

Yeah, I don't think they restart that, it isn't a timed circuit breaker, it's a closed until the market opens event.

Someone correct me if that's wrong, it makes it anyones guess where the market opens now

[Parliament 14260]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

If it does slow down though, I think there is a decent chance someone somewhere figures out something that helps immensely.   Vaccine is clearly not in the cards by the fall but there are so many damn people working on this worldwide that I think odds are there will be 'best practices' established to drive down CFR if we get a reprieve. Particularly existing drugs.  Google remdesivir (currently being used by physicians here on most extreme cases) and "camostat mesylate" (potentially stops infections?) as examples and I'm sure there are lots being looked at with zero press. And from a market perspective I think this is the kind of stuff to watch.  Because even if we don't have a vaccine or a cure, if there are drugs out there that could actually turn this into "just the flu" once scaled and drive CFR down significantly, then it seems like the market would skyrocket over night.

Medical infrastructure will be in much better shape by this fall.  Add to that a large share of people will have had it by then.  Fall won't be so bad.  We just gotta survive until July 1.

[LTtxfan 49196]

31 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Where do I bet the over on child births in Dec/Jan
 

Same place yah bet the over on divorces in Dec/Jan verses the previous year... 😬 

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by LTtxfan

[TornACL 7698]

A lot of people are suddenly going to find themselves with no income. 

We all know how many people are living hand to mouth. 

This is my concern, dude. 

[gsoda3 3262]

Yeah, I don't think they restart that, it isn't a timed circuit breaker, it's a closed until the market opens event.

Someone correct me if that's wrong, it makes it anyones guess where the market opens now

It's not halted right now. You can still buy above the 5% mark you just can't sell lower.

 

Tomorrow morning in the premarket SPY will begin trading and it can trade >5% below Fridays close. If after 8:30am SPY trades >7% below, it will halt although it takes a few seconds between when it hits 7% and when everything halts.

 

[Anastasis 23473]

18 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

It's not halted right now. You can still buy above the 5% mark you just can't sell lower.

 

Tomorrow morning in the premarket SPY will begin trading and it can trade >5% below Fridays close. If after 8:30am SPY trades >7% below, it will halt although it takes a few seconds between when it hits 7% and when everything halts.

 

In other words, nobody is buying at a price above the backstop.  

 

See you in the morning fellas. Gonna be interesting. 

[berlinerbaer 678]

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

There is evidence of non-seasonality. Singapore was really hard hit at first and only a sustained control effort from the authorities and the population put a lid on it.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

18 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

There is evidence of non-seasonality. Singapore was really hard hit at first and only a sustained control effort from the authorities and the population put a lid on it.

Damn I hate that quote feature...that was from the GS team and what they thought.  I think there is some evidence it's atypical as it seems to spread in warmer climates too...just not as easily it would seem.  

(quoted text was not my opinion) 

Edited March 16, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[TonyTexas 10515]

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

futures still pegged at the backstop. 

NowThis sock?

[bernorange 8362]

4 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

...There is NO systemic risk. ...

No risk at all.  NRAA . 

[RayDog 682]

Due to the decline in 15 to 64 year old population in the high and medium high income countries the world was headed toward peak gdp in the next decade or so. 

With 1% dying and society quarantines, we may have reached world peak gdp last quarter. There will not enough people with money to drive growth in demand in the near term.

The recovery will be very slow and demand may never pass Q4 of 2019.

[Wally Fairway 5550]

Just saw a report that etf's can still trade premarket

DIA, SPY and QQQ reports were all teasing down about -9%

[XYZ 2154]

6 hours ago, bernorange said:

No risk at all.  NRAA . 

Yeah, that’s laughable.