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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12382

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Don't care, bought SQQQ!

How does an inverse fund work? I’m baffled that this is a thing but not surprised. I don’t have the balls for it, but am genuinely curious.

Im just out of the market and waiting to jump back in at the bottom-ish... 

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52-80

52-80 19291

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

How does an inverse fund work? I’m baffled that this is a thing but not surprised. I don’t have the balls for it, but am genuinely curious.

Im just out of the market and waiting to jump back in at the bottom-ish... 

The managers of the fund use options contracts (discussed above) to match the intended direction and leverage of the bet.  In this case, magnifying 3x the nasdaq100 going down.

 

The problem is because of requires very active management, there is a high fund fee, and it has decay -- over long term the fund doesn't track its target (nasdaq100) very well.

 

Basically use it if you have a high conviction on your bet over the course of days.  Don't hold onto it for long time hoping the market will "catch back up" to your bet because your money is basically getting shaved everyday

Edited by 52-80
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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55069

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

The managers of the fund use options contracts (discussed above) to match the intended direction and leverage of the bet.  In this case, magnifying 3x the nasdaq100 going down.

They actually use swaps, but everything else is spot on and good info.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15382

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Henry Hill said:

For a wild ride, try TVIX. What a month.

Yep, had I followed my own advice from when I recommended to look at VXX or TVIX one Friday afternoon about a month back, I’d have made 5x on VXX and roughly 15.8x on TVIX.   I wanted to go all in, only did with a portion though.   

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23529

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, had I followed my own advice from when I recommended to look at VXX or TVIX one Friday afternoon about a month back, I’d have made 5x on VXX and roughly 15.8x on TVIX.   I wanted to go all in, only did with a portion though.   

I bought some VXX calls on that friday.  I remember your post. I wish I was still holding them but I sold them with the spike on the following monday.   

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, had I followed my own advice from when I recommended to look at VXX or TVIX one Friday afternoon about a month back, I’d have made 5x on VXX and roughly 15.8x on TVIX.   I wanted to go all in, only did with a portion though.   

Wow, I just checked the term structure here http://vixcentral.com/

Looks like VXX should benefit from massive backwardation for a while, as the VIX usually doesn't tail off that fast

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15382

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Good christ, to have bought into VXX ~ Feb 24 or so.

Yeah, when it was around $12-13/sh.   That’s when I was talking about it.  I looked at the weekly $20 calls for the next week and the were around $.05/sh.  They closed that week at over $10/sh.  $5k would have made me $1mm.    Was either that, or buying 2k shares of TVIX is what I was looking at ($38.50/sh) or both.   Would have made millions.   Couldn’t convince myself to pull the trigger all the way.  I’m sick 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23529

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yeah, when it was around $12-13/sh.   That’s when I was talking about it.  I looked at the weekly $20 calls for the next week and the were around $.05/sh.  They closed that week at over $10/sh.  $5k would have made me $1mm.    Was either that, or buying 2k shares of TVIX is what I was looking at ($38.50/sh) or both.   Would have made millions.   Couldn’t convince myself to pull the trigger all the way.  I’m sick 

I bought 04/17 16 calls on 2/21.  I paid 1.64 and sold them at 2.50-2.60.  Felt pretty fucking good about myself with a one day turn.  Those calls are worth 45.95 today. 

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5810

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Why keep cash reserves right?   Fucking idiots.  You wouldn't run your household like that, so why the fuck do you run a fortune 500 company like that?  

I absolutely fucking would run my household like that if every time I pissed away my money, there was a big group of people to give it back to me penalty free. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5610

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Overnight trading looks to be sleeping off a bender. Or perhaps puke and rally?

All this whipsaw up & down action gives you a chance to make some good bank, all you have to do is buy & sell at the right time.
Easy peasy - or the most mind numbing, gut-wretching kick in the nuts, day in & day out.
Just depends how you look at it
 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46534

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

After all the heel nippers are burned down across all the various industries the giants that remain standing will further consolidate their empires....Darwin at his finest.  

Yeah, at some point either megacorps like XOM are a "buy" or the whole thing is fucked.  It's down almost 60% from the 52-week high.  (Admittedly, the oil price war is a big part of that and should be considered.)

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9668

Posted
Posted
Yeah, at some point either megacorps like XOM are a "buy" or the whole thing is fucked.  It's down almost 60% from the 52-week high.  (Admittedly, the oil price war is a big part of that and should be considered.)

I thought maybe XOM was a buy mid-Feb at $60. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy 3/11 at $42 1/2. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy today at 12:30 at $35 and change. So I did.

Closed at $34.49 today.

3ffa612c98928da14427c96769d0c33a.jpg
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21284

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

I'm convinced the S&P 500 will drop to 1750 (it >might< hold there).  Should the SOXS (the bearish ETF for semis) drop into the 20's, am buying a chunk and holding for the ride up. My goal is to sell at 50, but if I see more downside, will let it ride.  In June, SOXS was a $70 stock.  

We have a couple big events remaining.  I got out thinking the large sports/events cancellations would hit.  Then I thought about quarantines in general.  The next two big ones that seem inevitable are cancellation/severely limiting domestic flights and the actual deaths/hospitals being overwhelmed.  I see both of those happening although I'm more sure about the latter, vs former.  I will likely push all the chips I have left back in at 2000 but 1750 is a realistic bottom.  I think the fed fucked up shooting all their bullets already.  We were gonna drop to these levels with or without their tricks.  After the virus and when we get into recovery, that's when economic stimulus makes sense to me.  What can people fucking buy right now anyway?  But either way...this was bound to be a mess.  

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49472

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, bluto said:

Buddy of mine is talking about spreads on commercial paper are getting pretty wild and the fed needing to pick up the tab on em at face value eventually. Thoughts?

Probably will happen this week....

It's been a topic of conversation on both CNBC and Bloomberg since last Thursday.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21284

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, bluto said:

Buddy of mine is talking about spreads on commercial paper are getting pretty wild and the fed needing to pick up the tab on em at face value eventually. Thoughts?

If this continued the rest of the year, yes.  I don't see that happening.  It may flare back up in Fall but we will have a couple months of reprieve in summer - that's my somewhat educated guess.  

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:


I thought maybe XOM was a buy mid-Feb at $60. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy 3/11 at $42 1/2. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy today at 12:30 at $35 and change. So I did.

Closed at $34.49 today.

3ffa612c98928da14427c96769d0c33a.jpg

I have averaged XOM down so far it’s finally making sense. Dammit 

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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

Posted
Posted
Just now, UTexasFight said:


I thought maybe XOM was a buy mid-Feb at $60. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy 3/11 at $42 1/2. So I did.
Then I thought maybe XOM was a buy today at 12:30 at $35 and change. So I did.

Closed at $34.49 today.

 

this is me. fml.

I am now buying every x% drop in the S&P and NASDAQ. My portfolio is about 40% equities from 5% now and only down less than 5%. 

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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

Posted
Posted
Just now, bluto said:

Buddy of mine is talking about spreads on commercial paper are getting pretty wild and the fed needing to pick up the tab on em at face value eventually. Thoughts?

Yeah, the bond funds in this market are shit. Shows that the markets aren't working that highly rated bonds are getting crushed albeit way less than equities. 

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9668

Posted
Posted
Yeah, the bond funds in this market are shit. Shows that the markets aren't working that highly rated bonds are getting crushed albeit way less than equities. 

So where do I hide.
My 401k has no cash/money market option.

Or just plug it all to the most conservative bond fund in my plan and take single digit vs double digit losses and be happy?

[obligatory]you shouldn’t be messing with your 401k. Stick to the plan if you aren’t retiring in the next decade /obligatory
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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

Posted
Posted
Just now, UTexasFight said:


So where do I hide.
My 401k has no cash/money market option.

Or just plug it all to the most conservative bond fund in my plan and take single digit vs double digit losses and be happy?

[obligatory]you shouldn’t be messing with your 401k. Stick to the plan if you aren’t retiring in the next decade /obligatory

are you already in cash?

i am moving my cash to equities slowly. 

i will take the single digit bond loses as i still get the dividend and the bonds will bounce back to par

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