Markets still falling like whoa

[hornbri 1396]

Just now, Hefeweizen said:

Do you think unemployment of 20 per cent cares whether it was caused by the rona or speculators?

While I dont think unemployment will get to 20% with the measures being proposed in congress. 

Yes,  I do think the reason it would get to high numbers would matter as it would be a indicator on how fast it would reverse. 

[Wally Fairway 5541]

2 minutes ago, hornbri said:

While I dont think unemployment will get to 20% with the measures being proposed in congress. 

Yes,  I do think the reason it would get to high numbers would matter as it would be a indicator on how fast it would reverse. 

I agree, there could be a blip up to 20% (or more), with all the layoffs (transportation, hospitalality,  etc) due to the beer virus related restrictions, but once those are relaxed people will, gradually and then faster, go back to work, to going to restaurants, flying, even getting on cruise ships {eek!} and unemployment will then plummet.

[Hefeweizen 5310]

I hope you’re both right and I’m wrong.  I see this lasting for a while as Weak businesses fold up.

 

I have been through three of these cycles with A huge bust at the end and I am sick of it.

[LebongJames 1791]

I’m with Hornbi and Wally. It’s going to suck but the I think underlying issues aren’t long term if we can slow the growth and re open businesses over the next month or so. The market will probably go down more but I think we should see a sharp increase in the 3rd and 4th quarter

Edited March 18, 2020 by LebongJames

[Wally Fairway 5541]

17 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I hope you’re both right and I’m wrong.  I see this lasting for a while as Weak businesses fold up.

 

I have been through three of these cycles with A huge bust at the end and I am sick of it.

Oh don't get me wrong, my pocketbook is angled towards your scenario more than it is mine - and I don't know when the feds (meaning US Treas & Fed Rsv) stop throwing money at this problem, because it seems like everytime they announce a "stimulus" package the market pauses, digests the stimulus, and the virus continues to eat the economy.
But I really do see your point - everything is so interconnected, restaurants fail, REITs fail, banks fail; airlines fail, leasing companies fail, Boeing fails, banks fail; it all leads to end game of banking.
Well except utilities, groceries and guns - even low gas prices aren't going to help that much if you aren't going anywhere, Saudi Arabia fails, OPEC fails, Iran fails and they decide to fight it out, the middle east becomes a full out shooting war.
It can easily be painted as a very ugly picture

[XYZ 2154]

21 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

I’m with Hornbi and Wally. It’s going to suck but the I think underlying issues aren’t long term if we can slow the growth and re open businesses over the next month or so.

Please pass le bong.

[clapclapclap 9000]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Bill Ackman?

One of the hedge fund scumbags.  The type that squeezes out record profits by slashing excess capacity to zero, with no surge capacity in emergencies.  Stock buybacks and piling on debt.  Relatively short term strategies that gut long term growth.  Which squeezes other companies in the same industry to adopt similar strategies or get pounded in the market.   One of the big reasons why so much critical resources have been outsourced and it is so difficult to ramp up output in supplies.  This is the Just-In-Time Depression.  Will be a lot shorter than the Great Depression, but the magnitude could have been avoided.  

Lots of blame to go around, but he's a sorry SOB, and he keeps piling on the damage. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by clapclapclap

[Parliament 14240]

So for better or worse, I just bought 10 put uptions on the BND.  $70 strike, 9-18-20 expiration, $18.50 cost.  Wish me luck.

[stone oak 639]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19188]

3 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

I wonder if there’s anyone out there alternating between $SQQQ and $TQQQ ... buying each when they’re low and selling the next day and buying the other.

Looking at this week, I mean, you could be making 15-30% everyday. 
I don’t say trade and only have an ira through vanguard to play with.

But if you had the stones and figure this yo-yo is going to continue, you could make tons of $ on this buy one day, sell the other.

What am I missing.

I don't do it every time, but when we have a pretty big up day (few and far between) I buy a small portion of SOXS near the close.  I have a decent sized trading account but never put more than $5k into this gamble so it's not like I'm going to retire early off it.  Basically it's a substitute for going to Vegas.

So far I've been able to scalp 10% without too much stress and have left plenty of money on the table each time.  When markets are acting like this the mantra is "sell the rips" instead of the normal "buy the dips".

[Loco 3752]

20 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Please pass le bong.

sounds classy!   

However, given the current state of affairs I'll stick to the Surly recommended 200mg edible.

[Dnaguy 11919]

look at everyone trying to buy the dip / place their bets for tomorrow.

 

stock market is full retard / a casino right now.

i guess it makes sense since all the other casinos are closed.

[Fudge Nuggets 19188]

I know oil service co's are a bit "out of style" now and nothing says any of them have to survive, but I can't help but believe SLB is a screaming buy down here.  Both Russia and Saudi will need them to get all that oil out of the ground and they are always the top international service company.  They already pulled a lot of their resources out of the Permian prior to this so the bust there shouldn't affect them near as much as the other companies.

[ChiTownDoc 21143]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

That seems bad.  Like Great Depression bad.

They can call this one the "Not so Great Depression".   Prepare your anus. 

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

What happens if you close the stock market? Like, what happens to options and futures?

If you can’t trade the stock, you can’t trade derivatives of the stock.  So, option and futures trading is also halted.

[52-80 19147]

1 more day like this and ill plow another 10% back into the market.  come at me, dow

[bluto 4912]

I really want to believe you guys on ‘we’re clear of bad news’ but I think that’s dreaming. We have no clue, zero, how long this global stop will last. And we’re so early into this shit show domestically that the visuals haven’t hit home yet assuming the covid projections are remotely accurate. As of now it’s all rhetoric and figures with the “invisible enemy”, but when/if visuals start showing up it’ll be bad stuff

[Loco 3752]

4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

1 more day like this and ill plow another 10% back into the market.  come at me, dow

Keep your powder dry.  There are going to be bargains to be had.

[Wally Fairway 5541]

For those interested in such things (I double checked my figures this time)

 

[Harrison Stafford 3335]

On 3/17/2020 at 11:25 AM, Harrison Stafford said:

In SOXS at $27.50.  If you think it's going to get worse, this price is a gift. 

Sold SOXS today at $35.50.  Waiting for another dip into the 20’s to reenter.  The inverse ETF is SMH and it broke support today at $100 and is on the way to $80.  Semis have been one of the bellwethers of this bull market.  It’s their time to return to earth. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Harrison Stafford

[Thetexashammer 1062]

1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

I’m with Hornbi and Wally. It’s going to suck but the I think underlying issues aren’t long term if we can slow the growth and re open businesses over the next month or so. The market will probably go down more but I think we should see a sharp increase in the 3rd and 4th quarter

What makes you think we would have developed herd immunity in the next month or so?

[Thetexashammer 1062]

33 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

If you can’t trade the stock, you can’t trade derivatives of the stock.  So, option and futures trading is also halted.

Ahhh fuckit nevermind.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Thetexashammer

[TonyTexas 10506]

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by TonyTexas

[LebongJames 1791]

11 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

What makes you think we would have developed herd immunity in the next month or so?

A month is too aggressive but if we can just slow the growth curve and start declining in cases we should be able to return to normal sooner than later.

[ClubWhatever 12120]

I think travel and tourism will take years to come back to previous levels.  A significant chunk of people aren’t going to want to travel to places like China and Italy for a long time, no matter how flat or negative the curve gets.  Vacations will be of a more narrow-body or four-wheeled variety.   And cruises?  No thanks.

[Loco 3752]

5 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

A month is too aggressive but if we can just slow the growth curve and start declining in cases we should be able to return to normal sooner than later.

It'd be nice if people were tested and if positive could do their isolation time and then engage again in economically productive behavior...  nah!  Let's just lock everything down for a month or so and just see.

[hornbri 1396]

14 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

 

I wonder if this matters? What kind of trades are still done on  the floor anyway?

Edited March 18, 2020 by hornbri

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

4 minutes ago, ClubWhatever said:

I think travel and tourism will take years to come back to previous levels.  A significant chunk of people aren’t going to want to travel to places like China and Italy for a long time, no matter how flat or negative the curve gets.  Vacations will be of a more narrow-body or four-wheeled variety.   And cruises?  No thanks.

Disagree with Italy. We're about to see the rest of Europe and the US with similar numbers. It will get normalized. 

Agree completely with China, and somewhat with cruises, but I think $200 in excursion vouchers will prove irresistible to the SEC crowd and ships will rebound at the same rate as general tourism.

[ChiTownDoc 21143]

46 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

1 more day like this and ill plow another 10% back into the market.  come at me, dow

I'm gonna set more puts after a likely up day tomorrow.  Usually I look at technical level or some such shit to enter but this time I'm trying to ignore key numbers and invest when certain events hit.  I maintain more truncated travel and more policies like SF (only essential activity outside the home)...then the deaths will hit and we see the shortage on bed supply at hospitals.  I see both as a matter of when, not if.  But after those two hit, we see a very big drop and I'll push just about all in.  I got out at 2850 so if I end up in at 1900 and it drops even more...still no ragrets - long term this should be a huge win.  Luckily Brat doesn't post in here...because those are the people that would be fucked if they were still in equities. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

25 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

A month is too aggressive but if we can just slow the growth curve and start declining in cases we should be able to return to normal sooner than later.

Sure. You're still looking at seven figure deaths. It's just like the flu, except more transmissible and 20x as fatal.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Thetexashammer

[Thetexashammer 1062]

So if we do a 2 trillion dollar stimulus, had an existing trillion dollar deficit, and probably lose a trillion dollars of tax revenue (at least), we'll show at least $4 trillion federal deficit this year. Maybe closer to $5 trillion, or 25% of GDP.

Edited March 18, 2020 by Thetexashammer

[UTexasFight 9428]

So if we do a 2 trillion dollar stimulus, had an existing trillion dollar deficit, and probably lose a trillion dollars of tax revenue (at least), we'll show at least $4 trillion federal deficit this year. Maybe closer to $5 trillion, or 25% of GDP.

But we’ll save $5 trillion in reduced SSA payments because everyone retired died of covid-19?

[Blotto 23488]

2 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

But we’ll save $5 trillion in reduced SSA payments because everyone retired died of covid-19?

Yup, TheTexasHammer needs to stop being so negative.  

Edited March 18, 2020 by Blotto

[hornbri 1396]

20 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Sure. You're still looking at seven figure deaths. It's just like the flu, except more transmissible and 20x as fatal.

seven figure deaths in the US? nah 

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, Harrison Stafford said:

If you can’t trade the stock, you can’t trade derivatives of the stock.  So, option and futures trading is also halted.

Yes, but you can’t halt derivatives trading for long. Kind like having milk in the fridge. The derivatives have an expiration date, and have to be unwound. I suppose you could void every futures contract, but what do you do with options? Freeze the option prices and force all longs and shorts to close out all positions?

[babysdaddy 2719]

Bought more today.  A lot more.  It looked like selling was starting to exhaust itself at the open.  I took it as a huge positive that we didn't immediately trigger the circuit breaker, even if we did trip it after lunch.  I started to hear professionals today want to throw in the towel.  We are close, I think, to the bottom.  We essentially have lock-downs occurring and given the incubation period, I'm guessing daily case increases will continue until the end of next week.  Let's get some optimism going.  Bend the curve and start to come out of this first or second week of April.  

Bill Ackman is a huge pussy.  I bet Ichan was laughing his ass off.

[XYZ 2154]

5 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Bought more today.  A lot more.  It looked like selling was starting to exhaust itself at the open.  I took it as a huge positive that we didn't immediately trigger the circuit breaker, even if we did trip it after lunch.  I started to hear professionals today want to throw in the towel.  We are close, I think, to the bottom.  We essentially have lock-downs occurring and given the incubation period, I'm guessing daily case increases will continue until the end of next week.  Let's get some optimism going.  Bend the curve and start to come out of this first or second week of April.  

Bill Ackman is a huge pussy.  I bet Ichan was laughing his ass off.

Wait, you’re buying stocks?

[Beau Vine 54207]

7 hours ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Should I buy more volatility indexes like TVIX? Relatively speaking, I was very late to the party and am still enjoying a solid 80% return and am curious if the lion’s share of outcomes have been priced in at this point. 

Oh, hell no.  

[Beau Vine 54207]

2 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

 

It was what, like 15 years ago that the NYSE bought ARCA?  

ARCA has handled more trading than the NYSE for years now.  

I think the NYSE has been looking for a reason to shut down the floor for a while now.  They'll just do a virtual bell-ringing.  

[Henry Hill 3156]

[Incredulity 11650]

Just heard a replay of Bill Ackman.

 

If that fucker bought any stock anytime near that the SEC should crawl straight up his ass.

[Parliament 14240]

Bought more today.  A lot more.  It looked like selling was starting to exhaust itself at the open.  I took it as a huge positive that we didn't immediately trigger the circuit breaker, even if we did trip it after lunch.  I started to hear professionals today want to throw in the towel.  We are close, I think, to the bottom.  We essentially have lock-downs occurring and given the incubation period, I'm guessing daily case increases will continue until the end of next week.  Let's get some optimism going.  Bend the curve and start to come out of this first or second week of April.  
Bill Ackman is a huge pussy.  I bet Ichan was laughing his ass off.

Sir I kindly disagree.

[I Got Worms 31]

Futures taking another dump tonight. 

[UTexasFight 9428]

Federal Reserve to Backstop Money-Market Mutual Funds Amid Coronavirus

“Fed establishes facility to lend to money-market funds, secures $10 billion from Treasury to protect against losses”

Soooo be in line at the bank when they open up to get money out?

I started digging the hole in my backyard tonight so I wouldn’t have to do it in the rain tomorrow.

[Parliament 14240]

I was wondering about that; about a run on MMA's.

And a question about futures trading.  It looks like there's an overnight market (that trades overnight) and an premarket...market that trades in the morning.  Is this correct?  What are the hours for each?

[gsoda3 3245]

I was wondering about that; about a run on MMA's.
And a question about futures trading.  It looks like there's an overnight market (that trades overnight) and an premarket...market that trades in the morning.  Is this correct?  What are the hours for each?

Overnight trades futures. It goes from 330p central to 830a the next morning. Premarket trades equities, it goes from I think 530am? maybe earlier, to 830am.

[Parliament 14240]

Do those futures settle at the end of every trading day?  I know grain commodity markets pretty well, and those futures obviously do not settle daily.

And premarket trades equities.  How do they reconcile share prices from there to regular trading during the day?  Ie, company xyz closed at $100 yesterday afternoon, and closes at $95 in the premarket.  When regular trading starts in the regular market, does company xyz open at $100 or $95?

[workswithseed 2088]

 

[52-80 19147]

9 hours ago, Parliament said:

 

 

Sir I kindly disagree.

somebody's got to prop up the shitshow

[Parliament 14240]

Speaking of shit shows...