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Posted
Just now, Parliament said:

Speaking of shit shows...a674177243cbcec2db3f568e366ca4c1.jpg

Use a better site than that.  CNN.money doesn’t include the fair value calculation for a true implied open (-400 or so implied right now)

Posted
Just now, Errestaurants said:

Ray Dalio is on CNBC and talking way over my head but it sounds like he is describing a Great Depression scenario is ahead

Yes, that’s exactly what he’s talking about.  

Posted
10 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Between Ackman yesterday and now this....

throw up team america GIF

Fuck Bill Ackman, as noted several dozen times in this thread.  
 

however, Ray Dalio actually came on with a well-thought out, well-structured reasoning and is a very well-respected person on the street and has been for decades.   
 

no one respects Ackman. 

Posted
Just now, Trey3216 said:

Fuck Bill Ackman, as noted several dozen times in this thread.  
 

however, Ray Dalio actually came on with a well-thought out, well-structured reasoning and is a very well-respected person on the street and has been for decades.   
 

no one respects Ackman. 

Maybe that’s even more frightening? Hell Ackman said the sky was falling but he was still buying stocks.

Ackman didn’t say this was going to be a Great Depression where the fundamentals of the economy start to break down.

Dalio was talking 1.5-2 Trillion stimulus at a minimum to stave off Maximum catastrophe.... but didn’t seem like that was enough.

I believe he said that this is going to cause some 4 TRILLION dollar reduction in the us and a 12 TRILLION reduction globally.

Idk. Way over my head, but I was at least picking up on the fact that he was saying the future may not be so bright.

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Do this.
Will not only help you avoid the mental depression-inducing talk, but will also help prepare you for when an actual economic depression takes place and a head of lettuce costs $15.
 

Yep.  Been adding to mine every day.  

Posted
Just now, Dnaguy said:

Maybe that’s even more frightening? Hell Ackman said the sky was falling but he was still buying stocks.

Ackman didn’t say this was going to be a Great Depression where the fundamentals of the economy start to break down.

Dalio was talking 1.5-2 Trillion stimulus at a minimum to stave off Maximum catastrophe.... but didn’t seem like that was enough.

I believe he said that this is going to cause some 4 TRILLION dollar reduction in the us and a 12 TRILLION reduction globally.

Idk. Way over my head, but I was at least picking up on the fact that he was saying the future may not be so bright.

 

He said it would wipe out at least $4tn domestically and $12tn globally in corporate wealth, and that doesn’t count the destruction in household wealth and long term tax equivalent household wealth due to increased taxes to pay for it.  Those are enormous numbers when added together, likely in the neighborhood of 50% of current nominal GDP 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

He said it would wipe out at least $4tn domestically and $12tn globally in corporate wealth, and that doesn’t count the destruction in household wealth and long term tax equivalent household wealth due to increased taxes to pay for it.  Those are enormous numbers when added together, likely in the neighborhood of 50% of current nominal GDP 

groundhog day suicide GIF

  • Like 2
Posted

Shit.  Going to be a rough year.

I feel really bad for a couple of guys I know well who were on the cusp of retirement.  If they don’t die they are going to be putting that date off for at least a few years.

  • Like 1
Posted
41 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

...

Dalio was talking 1.5-2 Trillion stimulus at a minimum to stave off Maximum catastrophe.... but didn’t seem like that was enough.

I believe he said that this is going to cause some 4 TRILLION dollar reduction in the us and a 12 TRILLION reduction globally.

...

Dalio has been warning about a "paradigm shift" coming for several months now.  He has posted a lot about it on his LinkedIn blog.  I've posted references to it here.

Dalio thinks the Fed needs to explode the money supply over 100% you say?  Stupid goldbugs.

Posted
52 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Do this.
Will not only help you avoid the mental depression-inducing talk, but will also help prepare you for when an actual economic depression takes place and a head of lettuce costs $15.
 

In a depression, lettuce won't cost $15; it will cost $0.05.  Problem is, we will only have $0.02.

Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Shit.  Going to be a rough year.

I feel really bad for a couple of guys I know well who were on the cusp of retirement.  If they don’t die they are going to be putting that date off for at least a few years.

One would hope guys so close to retirement weren't loaded very heavy on securities.

Edited by Parliament
Posted

Good friend of mine close to retirement pulled out last November. Nothing to do with Coronavirus(obviously).  I am very happy for him. 

 

Personally I think, and have told him as such, that he has a golden opportunity to take a portion of his cash and make a great deal of money over the next 5-10 years.  

Posted
14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

One would hope guys so close to retirement weren't loaded very heavy on securities.

I'm ten years but am pretty heavy stock loaded -- the issue I see is that if we go into heavy unemployment I'm going to have a harder time than you younger guys.  

Posted
16 minutes ago, Parliament said:

One would hope guys so close to retirement weren't loaded very heavy on securities.

They are probably not but our company is private and our stonk price is going to take a nosedive.  So they may have to stick around.

Posted
2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Fuck Bill Ackman, as noted several dozen times in this thread.  
 

however, Ray Dalio actually came on with a well-thought out, well-structured reasoning and is a very well-respected person on the street and has been for decades.   
 

no one respects Ackman. 

Fuck Ray Dalio too

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/ray-dalio-at-davos-cash-is-trash-as-everybody-wants-in-on-the-2020-market.html

  • Like 1
Posted
2020.  If they're saying we'll grow 8% in Q3, the stock market is gonna respond well to that.

Until they revise it to -8%

2021 was a sarcastic response, but nothing would really surprise me right now
Posted

TJ Maxx and I believe Victoria secret announced today that they’re closing all retail stores for 2 weeks.

TJX closing online too. Don’t know about Victoria secret.

....Gambling They can re-open and get that stimulus cash when then gov $$$ hits our account on 4/6.....

 

Buy, buy, buy!

All is well!

Posted
5 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

TJ Maxx and I believe Victoria secret announced today that they’re closing all retail stores for 2 weeks.

TJX closing online too. Don’t know about Victoria secret.

....Gambling They can re-open and get that stimulus cash when then gov $$$ hits our account on 4/6.....

 

Buy, buy, buy!

All is well!

spacer.png

  • Haha 1
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

The full projection is actually fairly rosy, IMO.

 

What's I find interesting is that I heard someone in the last few days saying that airlines, restaurants, hospitality (DIsney, etc) alone could push unemployment rates to 6.5% 

NYTimes article indicates reports already show skyrocketing claims
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/19/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-claims-states.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

NYTimes-unemployment

Edited by Wally Fairway
graph added
Posted
1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

What's I find interesting is that I heard someone in the last few days saying that airlines, restaurants, hospitality (DIsney, etc) alone could push unemployment rates to 6.5% 

NYTimes article indicates reports already show skyrocketing claims
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/19/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-claims-states.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Every restaurant owner I know told their employees to file as soon as the county shutdowns hit 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Every restaurant owner I know told their employees to file as soon as the county shutdowns hit 

It's going to be a fucking HUGE number.

Certainly it will shake the markets and it should.

 

 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Every restaurant owner I know told their employees to file as soon as the county shutdowns hit 

In before the first bitching about low unemployment checks based on low tip reporting.

Posted
Just now, davidg said:

In before the first bitching about low unemployment checks based on low tip reporting.

Oh I definitely heard that from a few of them.   I said “that’s why you need to report all your shit.”

Posted
2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Oh I definitely heard that from a few of them.   I said “that’s why you need to report all your shit.”

"Yeah, but then they tax it..."**blank look on face**

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

TJ Maxx and I believe Victoria secret announced today that they’re closing all retail stores for 2 weeks.

TJX closing online too. Don’t know about Victoria secret.

....Gambling They can re-open and get that stimulus cash when then gov $$$ hits our account on 4/6.....

 

Buy, buy, buy!

All is well!


Seriously though.

look at TJX today.

Tells you all you need to know about how full retard the market is.

1.) They’re down 3% In early trading

2.) , then suspend trading, 

3.) They announce they’ve closed stores for 2 weeks...

4.) They drop some 15%

5.) Then rally to now a +3% on the day
 

WTF

Posted
6 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:


Seriously though.

look at TJX today.

Tells you all you need to know about how full retard the market is.

1.) They’re down 3% In early trading

2.) , then suspend trading, 

3.) They announce they’ve closed stores for 2 weeks...

4.) They drop some 15%

5.) Then rally to now a +3% on the day
 

WTF

I'm guessing some of that in 5. is short covers, profit taking
then again I'm, painfully, watching today as theta proves she is a money eating bitch (especially on my 3-20 expiration SPY puts)...but this is the life of "investing" in options
although the market seems relatively calm today, it amazes me what qualifies as calm these days - the DJIA is up over 1,000 from the intraday low, and SP500 up over 100, and Russell 2000 up 80.
those used to be considered big moves (at least %'wise)\

Image result for hold meme

Posted
2 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Back in SOXS at $28.39.  The market’s not as volatile today, so it may take a few days to get to $33.  If it’s running, will hold for the rise to the mid 30’s.

What are the rules on how long you can hold a 3X Bear Shares ETF like  SOXS ??

Posted

I'm guessing a bunch of strict shelter in place type announcements after the bell and we drop big again tomorrow.  But only a couple more truly shitty days imo overly optimistic opinion. 

Posted

As mentioned up thread regarding shit hitting the fan when it moves from rhetoric/graphs to reality...., visuals rolling in from Italy with military trucks transporting loads of caskets under the cover of night.

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