Markets still falling like whoa

[UTexasFight 9506]

I hate to say it, man, but that’s not how I’m not tomorrow play out. I think NY and California closing down are already priced in, and unless something bizarre and unforeseen occurs, I actually think tomorrow’s market will be relatively boring. 

By god he may be right

Futures flat to slightly up.


Still think there is a lot more pain to come between now and Monday

I

[atomheartbevo 89735]

23 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

This is why the avg portfolio performance for a Senator is better than best hedge fund manager on Wall St. In this case it is too big a drop to hide. Fuck them in the goat ass

Is this big enough to take down the Chairman of the NYSE, since it was his wife in those meetings, and both of them had stock that was sold?

edit:  she’s pissed at Fox News and the others looking into this

Coincidence then?

Quote

 One of Loeffler’s two purchases was stock worth between $100,000 and $250,000 in Citrix, a technology company that offers teleworking software and which has seen a small bump in its stock price since Loeffler bought in as a result of coronavirus-induced market turmoil.

 

Edited March 20, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[dcar00 14286]

FOIA her and the husband phone records asap.

[atomheartbevo 89735]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

FOIA her and the husband phone records asap.

If you want to look at the actual stocks being sold, this guy has spreadsheets in his comments

 

[atomheartbevo 89735]

Loeffler

Spoiler

 

Inhofe

Spoiler

 

Feinstein

Spoiler

 

Johnson
 

Spoiler

 

 

[LABEVO 928]

26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is this big enough to take down the Chairman of the NYSE, since it was his wife in those meetings, and both of them had stock that was sold?

edit:  she’s pissed at Fox News and the others looking into this

Coincidence then?

 

Class war isn’t enough at this point 

[UTexasFight 9506]

I can’t believe a newly elected senator placed on a senate committee that oversees a stock exchange for which said newly elected senator’s husband is the CEO would ever get caught up in such a thing!


What’s that? It took her less than a month in office to get in this predicament?


Thatsashame.gif

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

2 hours ago, The People’s Elbow said:

It feels weird to agree with Tucker Carlson.

 

I hate to say it, man, but that’s not how I’m not tomorrow play out. I think NY and California closing down are already priced in, and unless something bizarre and unforeseen occurs, I actually think tomorrow’s market will be relatively boring. 

Have til April 11th.  If we are not down 3% at any point between now and then color me shocked and pleased.  These plays are tiny in the grand scheme but have been doing really well.  In a typical decade you may have a few +/- 1000 days.  The last 2 weeks we probably had a decade’s worth.  

[52-80 19185]

12 hours ago, 52-80 said:

I'm gambling on a drop tomorrow.  #yolo

HAHAH LOSER MOVE SO FAR.

[Fudge Nuggets 19207]

6 hours ago, victory88 said:

Get ready for another big drop tomorrow.  California shutting down and I bet NY is next.  

Futures are up 4% because apparently Europe’s free money is going to work.  We either have reached a short term low and are due for a bounce or it’s time to fade the open.

[Wally Fairway 5567]

42 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Futures are up 4% because apparently Europe’s free money is going to work.  We either have reached a short term low and are due for a bounce or it’s time to fade the open.

Maybe a little of both

I had thought Ackman's interview was a glimpse at futures, but maybe that day the market priced some of that in.

If you are playing the downside, this is why you can't do it with close dated expiration, you can be right on the movement but not on the timing and lose your position to theta/time. 

Today looks like a nice bounce, which is good after yesterday's move. I'm not so sure it is a sign, yet, that we've seen the bottom of this market.

[LTtxfan 49279]

Siap... probably even more volatility today due to Triple Witching Day

What is Triple Witching?

Triple witching is the quarterly expiration of stock options, stock index futures and stock index option contracts all occurring on the same day. It happens four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.

[Wally Fairway 5567]

14 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

for Parliament, and all you other bears

LOL - what a loser bear post

Iamlaughingatyou.meme

[Dnaguy 12002]

I think what the market is not pricing in is the huge unemployment surge. The hole this almost complete shutdown of the economy is going to blow in state budgets. And the economic damage that will cause as it ‘trickles down’ 
This is just my opinion.

Think about pricing in the market right now... indexes at levels of 2016 / 2017. And I realize that the market doesn’t exactly work like this but are we really in a better place today than 2017/2107?

I also don’t feel as if a Republican senate is going to be comfortable doing what is needed to keep this getting from worse. They will eventually balk. And that’s going to be a death blow to a shaky footing. Do you really think these guys are going to throw another trillion at this when their current lob fails to keep things steady? Don’t kid yourself. We are going to waste half this ‘stimulus’ sending it to cruise companies and industries that include Trump companies. So we’ll need another large stimulus in a month - 2 months.

But I’m always a negative Nancy.

[BradInATX 9208]

This is not advice at all, just calling my shot for future hijinks.

I think we're close to the bottom. I believe the market has most everything priced in, at least to somewhere around that JP Morgan projection for GDP and Unemployment. I think that while we're going to see some crazy shit coming out of hospitals in the weeks to come, I think we're going to start seeing some good things happening with some of the antivirals they're developing. We don't have to have a vaccine necessarily, if we can simply treat patients effectively and rapidly with one or more of these things and get them out of the hospitals quickly, then we'll be able to re-open society pretty soon. 

I could see the S&P maybe dropping a slight bit more through early to mid next week (maybe 2300), but I bet by late-April we're closer to 3300 than 2300.

In a thread full of everyone being pessimistic, I guess I'm the Huckleberry. But I did cash out more than half of our retirement on 2/14, so I'm basically a stonks genius. We'll see..

Edited March 20, 2020 by BradInATX

[Parliament 14262]

I'm not gonna argue with you, as I don't have any facts to back it up.  This is an admission and I wanna be clear about that.  I don't think we're close to a bottom.  Not close on the market level, and not close to the bottom calendar-wise.  The voices in my head say June is the bottom.

[stone oak 639]

As much as I wish it weren't the case, I don't think we are even close to the bottom. The entire country is basically shut down for a month or more, cure or not that is going to leave a mark.

I could see the S&P dropping below 2000 by mid-April. Hopefully a strong recovery in Q3/Q4 provided we have a better solution to this shit eventually.

Edited March 20, 2020 by stone oak

[Skipper 6136]

Put my vote as not at the bottom.  I'm still sitting on the sideline for now.

[Telegraph_it 3358]

Not the bottom.

[Fudge Nuggets 19207]

Not the absolute bottom, but I feel we're close enough that any significant down days (3 or 4% down) are a bit safer to buy now than they were early this week.

[Wally Fairway 5567]

56 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

I think what the market is not pricing in is the huge unemployment surge. The hole this almost complete shutdown of the economy is going to blow in state budgets. And the economic damage that will cause as it ‘trickles down’ 
This is just my opinion.

Think about pricing in the market right now... indexes at levels of 2016 / 2017. And I realize that the market doesn’t exactly work like this but are we really in a better place today than 2017/2107?

I also don’t feel as if a Republican senate is going to be comfortable doing what is needed to keep this getting from worse. They will eventually balk. And that’s going to be a death blow to a shaky footing. Do you really think these guys are going to throw another trillion at this when their current lob fails to keep things steady? Don’t kid yourself. We are going to waste half this ‘stimulus’ sending it to cruise companies and industries that include Trump companies. So we’ll need another large stimulus in a month - 2 months.

But I’m always a negative Nancy.

 

49 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

This is not advice at all, just calling my shot for future hijinks.

I think we're close to the bottom. I believe the market has most everything priced in, at least to somewhere around that JP Morgan projection for GDP and Unemployment. I think that while we're going to see some crazy shit coming out of hospitals in the weeks to come, I think we're going to start seeing some good things happening with some of the antivirals they're developing. We don't have to have a vaccine necessarily, if we can simply treat patients effectively and rapidly with one or more of these things and get them out of the hospitals quickly, then we'll be able to re-open society pretty soon. 

I could see the S&P maybe dropping a slight bit more through early to mid next week (maybe 2300), but I bet by late-April we're closer to 3300 than 2300.

In a thread full of everyone being pessimistic, I guess I'm the Huckleberry. But I did cash out more than half of our retirement on 2/14, so I'm basically a stonks genius. We'll see..

I like both of these post, I think you both make good points and that you will be right about some of what you think will happen.
And this is why we have a stock market where people can buy and others can sell at any price point, because they think it is a good spot to enter and to exit that stock for each of them with their point of view.

[Anastasis 23477]

too stonky for this thread.

Edited March 20, 2020 by Anastasis
too stonky.

[bluto 4932]

Overnight gains thanos’d within 10 min of open

[Dnaguy 12002]

13 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

 

I like both of these post, I think you both make good points and that you will be right about some of what you think will happen.
And this is why we have a stock market where people can buy and others can sell at any price point, because they think it is a good spot to enter and to exit that stock for each of them with their point of view.

Fuck your measured, reasonable post.

Pick a side!

 

 

[52-80 19185]

2 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Fuck your measured, reasonable post.

Pick a side!

 

 

we choose chaos

[stone oak 639]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

we choose chaos

[Incredulity 11675]

Has anyone seen any data on California and Pennsylvania's ability(cash on hand) to pay all of the UI claims that will be filed next week?

[Captainant 27681]

15 minutes ago, bluto said:

Overnight gains thanos’d within 10 min of open

reduced by 50%?

[bluto 4932]

Just now, Captainant said:

reduced by 50%?

i suppose i shoulda been careful with that term... the gains were dusted. back to treating yesterday's close like the 38th parallel, scrapping back and forth. 

[Wiler77 1566]

Collective Surly fighting urges to jump back in:

 

Trying to figure out when to turn into this:

[Incredulity 11675]

Well to answer my own question, California has 3.3 billion on hand in its UI fund.

https://www.edd.ca.gov/about_edd/quick_statistics.htm#UIStatistics

19.5 Million Civilian workforce.

If 50% of the workforce claims UI and the payouts average $500.00 thats $4.85 billion.

 

How the fuck is that going to work?

 

[bernorange 8362]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

How the fuck is that going to work?

All the time, our customers ask us, “How do you make money doing this?” The answer is simple: Volume. That’s what we do.

[Incredulity 11675]

2 minutes ago, bernorange said:

All the time, our customers ask us, “How do you make money doing this?” The answer is simple: Volume. That’s what we do.

I appreciate the humor, but in all seriousness it doesn't appear that anyone is all that concerned or considering it.

 

I have been hearing anecdotes of local UI online systems crashing and no support/information about restoration.  

[Wally Fairway 5567]

14 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Well to answer my own question, California has 3.3 billion on hand in its UI fund.

https://www.edd.ca.gov/about_edd/quick_statistics.htm#UIStatistics

19.5 Million Civilian workforce.

If 50% of the workforce claims UI and the payouts average $500.00 thats $4.85 billion.

 

How the fuck is that going to work?

 

Same as every other goverment entity has done for years, borrow the money (sell bonds) and figure it out in the future.
Kick the can down the road; economics 101

[bernorange 8362]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

I appreciate the humor, but in all seriousness it doesn't appear that anyone is all that concerned or considering it.

...

When I post serious concern about the possible consequences of things.  It is usually met with ridicule or crickets.  You want to discuss such things?  The Fed is likely going to creating 1-2 (or more?) trillion dollars in the coming months based upon programs they have already announced.  What's a few more billion for California and few more billion for States X, Y and Z?  It's all monopoly money and rules/laws don't really matter in a crisis (they are simply changed if they are problematic).  Bailout the States.  I'm sure they will work out nice terms.  The Fed is going to own everything before this is over.  Feel better?

[Incredulity 11675]

20 minutes ago, bernorange said:

When I post serious concern about the possible consequences of things.  It is usually met with ridicule or crickets.  You want to discuss such things?  The Fed is likely going to creating 1-2 (or more?) trillion dollars in the coming months based upon programs they have already announced.  What's a few more billion for California and few more billion for States X, Y and Z?  It's all monopoly money and rules/laws don't really matter in a crisis (they are simply changed if they are problematic).  Bailout the States.  I'm sure they will work out nice terms.  The Fed is going to own everything before this is over.  Feel better?

I wasn't intending to chide you, actually I honestly do appreciate the humor.

 

[bernorange 8362]

Re: Rules don't really matter in crisis...  Hi Walter Sobchak:

Quote

A Senate bill to be introduced Friday would allow the Federal Reserve to purchase municipal debt, in an effort to ease the economic strain of the coronavirus pandemic on state and local governments.

The measure from Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, would amend the Federal Reserve Act to allow the Fed to buy municipal bonds under “unusual and exigent circumstances.” The rule would be triggered by events like the rapid spread of a virus, other health emergencies or crises.

“States and localities are on the front lines in the fight against COVID-19 and need assistance from the federal government to be able to finance the increasing costs of the response to this health emergency,” Menendez said in a statement. “The Municipal Bonds Emergency Relief Act would do that by allowing the Federal Reserve to provide support to state and local governments for this crisis and similar future emergencies.”
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-20/fed-could-snap-up-municipal-debt-under-new-senate-proposal?srnd=premium

[The People’s Elbow 707]

Hospitality stocks are up huge today. False bottom or start of something? 

[Beau Vine 54258]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

HAHAH LOSER MOVE SO FAR.

So the Dow and the S&P have barely moved, the NASDAQ is up 1.1%, and the R2000 is up 2.3%.

Want to guess which one I have a leveraged short bet on?

FML.

[UTexasFight 9506]

So clearly a CA lockdown is priced in.
Has the national one been?

And will it be announced before or after 3pm central?

If there is another Friday 2:30 White House press conference, so help me....

[Beau Vine 54258]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

Same as every other goverment entity has done for years, borrow the money (sell bonds) and figure it out in the future.
Kick the can down the road; economics 101

You have to admit that that's a better plan when interest rates are 0.

[jimmyjazz 45981]

Anyone who thinks all current news isn't priced in is a fool.  Yes, this includes a surge in unemployment to 20% . . . but it also includes the expectation of multiple government bailouts to blunt that effect.

I learned a long time ago I can't predict the market for shit.  I just react to what I see, which by definition means I am working on old information.  C'est la vie.

[Skipper 6136]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Anyone who thinks all current news isn't priced in is a fool.  Yes, this includes a surge in unemployment to 20% . . . but it also includes the expectation of multiple government bailouts to blunt that effect.

I learned a long time ago I can't predict the market for shit.  I just react to what I see, which by definition means I am working on old information.  C'est la vie.

The market has made zero sense during this entire pandemic.  I couldn't figure out why it wasn't dropping by the week ending 2/21 when I sold most (but not all unfortunately) of my equities.  The 8% jumps and drops haven't made sense to me throughout the process.  The only thing that is making me consider establishing a long position at this point is concern the govt. flat out shuts down the markets until things stabilize.  And we clearly have no idea what the outlook would be when it reopened if that were to happen.

[stone oak 639]

Money printer go BRRRRRR

[Dnaguy 12002]

37 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Hospitality stocks are up huge today. False bottom or start of something? 

 

NYC (biggest city in US) and California (largest state economy with the 2nd largest city in US) both on lockdown.

I think it can go lower .... but that isn’t advice, just my hunch.
 

[MAUFRAIS 6629]

4 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

 

NYC (biggest city in US)
 

[52-80 19185]

37 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

So the Dow and the S&P have barely moved, the NASDAQ is up 1.1%, and the R2000 is up 2.3%.

Want to guess which one I have a leveraged short bet on?

FML.

im gonna guess the same as me.  TZA (Russel * -3).  Down premarket, then up at opening, down, up, etc.

 

im trying to walk my dog and monitor this thing at the same time. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19207]

What in the fuck just happened?

[Dnaguy 12002]

3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

What in the fuck just happened?

NYC shit down seems to have blunted any rally.

[gsoda3 3263]

wrong thread.

Edited March 20, 2020 by gsoda3