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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I have exactly 1 CVX put at 65 on Apr 3. Oil price movement today should have made it a winner, but here I am.

I'm watching XOM, CVX, and OXY and feeling like I just stepped on my dick and missed it all.  I've averaged down XOM to where I feel OK, but OXY is killing me not getting in.  Guess this is why I dont do this shit for a living.  Still frustrating pissing away thousands of bucks on lost opportunities.

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bernorange

bernorange 8374

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Man, any selling at all is just swallowed up like it's nothing.

The Fed released a statement, but I can't get twitter to embed, so I'll quote below:

Spoiler

Now witness the power of this fully armed and operational battle station.

 

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MonkeyDoughnut

MonkeyDoughnut 10439

Posted
Posted (edited)

Jobs number apparently should have been much worse but the states are saying they couldn't process them fast enough so couldn't (or didn't) report actual numbers:

NY and CA just two that could have popped that number to easily over 4.5M.  I guess we are likely to see at least that number next week.

 

The difference in new jobless claims reflects a number of factors, the most of important of which is the ability to handle a flood of applications. New York state’s system was overwhelmed last week and many people were unable to file. State officials have indicated the number of people who wanted to file claims was actually much higher.

Similarly in California, the state’s governor said some 1 million new claims were filed from March 13 to March 25. Officially, the state “only” reported a 186,000 increase last week.

 

Edited by MonkeyDoughnut
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Captainant

Captainant 27970

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Jobs number apparently should have been much worse but the states are saying they couldn't process them fast enough so couldn't (or didn't) report actual numbers:

NY and CA just two that could have popped that number to easily over 4.5M.  I guess we are likely to see at least that number next week.

 

The difference in new jobless claims reflects a number of factors, the most of important of which is the ability to handle a flood of applications. New York state’s system was overwhelmed last week and many people were unable to file. State officials have indicated the number of people who wanted to file claims was actually much higher.

Similarly in California, the state’s governor said some 1 million new claims were filed from March 13 to March 25. Officially, the state “only” reported a 186,000 increase last week.

 

I heard the market had already priced that in

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Skipper

Skipper 6304

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

the thing with this jobs # is

3.)  it's widely expected to be a short term and temporary problem.  

This is what I'm still struggling with.  I don't think things will be as bad as the doomsday projections but a big part of that is precisely because of the steps we've taken.   My gut is there is a little too much optimism as far as the meaning of "short term and temporary" but it's clearly all still a guessing game at this point without reliable data driving decision making.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49405

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 3/24/2020 at 12:54 PM, LTtxfan said:

Lots of crap stocks rallying huge off of big speculation today and bailouts for Boeing, Airlines and Hotels...

Once more specific details leak on Congress stimulus deal, and a little more bad news/Gov't missteps --Market most likely retests the SP500 2200 level in next 2 Days...

 

 

^^^Don't listen to this guy!!!^^^    😂

Currently the SP500 > 2500  (12:35pm cst)

Today there may be a ton of early Pension Fund rebalancing out of bonds and buying equities to get back closer to a 60/40 split for their 3/31 quarter-end.  Also has to be some short covering going on today too.

Still seems like way too much short-term optimism in the market today -- won't be surprised if last two days SP500 increases are washed out in early April...

BUT WHAT DO I KNOW....   😂

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10568

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

^^^Don't listen to this guy!!!^^^    😂

Currently the SP500 > 2500  (12:35pm cst)

Today there may be a ton of early Pension Fund rebalancing out of bonds and buying equities to get back closer to a 60/40 split for their 3/31 quarter-end. 

Window dressing to overstate your equity exposure in a quarter that’s down 25% would be a good way for a manager to lose his job. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19276

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

So Ackman was hedged and covered on the 23rd.  His emotional pussy ass whine (that was fake) was on the 18th. The SEC ahd better come after him

Technically he didn't break any rules.  He's a shitbird of the highest degree, but anyone that made moves based on his TV appearance deserves to lose their money.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15380

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I really didn't think there was any way I could think less of Bill Ackman.  

I just watch that ordeal with he and Icahn, then look at his Valeant trade.   

 

I made some folks a lot of coin after he finally sold out of VRX.  

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49405

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Window dressing to overstate your equity exposure in a quarter that’s down 25% would be a good way for a manager to lose his job. 

Good point...

Also, the Pension Funds may have built-in investment mandates to rebalance their portfolios by quarter-end if their allocation target (could be 60/40) is off by 5% or greater??

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Blotto

Blotto 23681

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I just watch that ordeal with he and Icahn, then look at his Valeant trade.   

 

I made some folks a lot of coin after he finally sold out of VRX.  

Lets not also forget the JC Penney fiasco. He makes bold investment choices, some do well others don't, but I'm not convinced his clients wouldn't be better off just parking their money in an S&P Index fund. He has certainly under-performed the last few years.

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bernorange said:

The Fed released a statement, but I can't get twitter to embed, so I'll quote below:

  Hide contents

Now witness the power of this fully armed and operational battle station.

 

So, while I understand that you can temporize a bit, at some point, you absolutely will have out of control inflation. We're getting closer every day. How do you go bankrupt? Gradually, then suddenly.

Did they decide to print the stimulus? 

 

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3285

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, bernorange said:

The Federal Reserve posts public updates on their balance sheet every Thursday afternoon.  I'll be interested to see what it shows later today (in a few hours).  It was $4.716T last Thursday.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_fedsbalancesheet.htm

yeah.  for reference, the prior # was ~4.36.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5600

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Henry Hill said:

Is this indicating that the arrow is where we are now relative to the Nikkei collapse? Trying to follow along.

I want to know who back checks data to find a chart that looks enough like the story they want to tell?
There is little to nothing similar the cause of the Virus market collapse and the Nikkei collapse in 1990 - other than a vaguely similar graph.

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2730

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, bluto said:


Explain it but in single syllable word English

MOAR

Lotta quarter end re-balancing coming (already happening?).  Anyone still waiting for 2,000 in the S&P? Don't know if we are going to retest the way this is going.  Forced liquidations are over and anyone wanting it to go lower are fighting $2T in direct stimulus plus more if needed and the Fed absolutely flooding the market with liquidity.  

And I know what Bill did was 'legal' but he's still the biggest asshole on the planet utilizing his 'immune compromised' father as he was pleading his short case.

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3285

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluto said:


Explain it but in single syllable word English

for people/entities who have orders involving large numbers of shares, they can submit their order to buy or sell to the end of day auction system.  the idea behind the auction system is to pair off large orders to achieve less volatility in price.  it's run by the primary market maker (either NYSE, Amex, NSDQ, or ARCA) and the market maker will pair off all of the buys and sells for each stock.  you can submit your orders for the auction as soon as the exchanges open at 5am.  

 

starting at 3pm eastern, the exchanges publish an aggregate imbalance number-  that's the total number of buys and sells as expressed in a dollar amount (calculated by # shares times the price of their respective shares in each stock name at that one point in time).  on a normal non-covid day the imbalance will be somewhere around a billion or two dollars either buy or sell.  even at the height of the market turmoil a couple weeks ago the imbalances weren't too crazy, around 4 or 5 billion dollars.   today it was a 7 billion dollar buy.  could it be due to the upcoming end of quarter rebalancing?  maybe.  something to consider, today there was a huge amount of buying at a controlled pace.  fed action?  wish i knew but it sure feels like it.  it's someone with deep pockets that's for sure.

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Blotto

Blotto 23681

Posted
Posted (edited)

Glad I took plenty of profits from my puts on the way down, because the ones I'm left holding are getting destroyed now. I'll see where we're at on Monday, but may close out my remaining ITM puts then and just keep the July 225, which not surprisingly are no longer in the green. Doesnt seem like betting against the fed right now is a wise choice.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21217

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

MOAR

Lotta quarter end re-balancing coming (already happening?).  Anyone still waiting for 2,000 in the S&P? Don't know if we are going to retest the way this is going.  Forced liquidations are over and anyone wanting it to go lower are fighting $2T in direct stimulus plus more if needed and the Fed absolutely flooding the market with liquidity.  

And I know what Bill did was 'legal' but he's still the biggest asshole on the planet utilizing his 'immune compromised' father as he was pleading his short case.

I definitely think we retest lows.  2000?  I'd still give a chance but my 50/50 is more like 2250.  There's a shitload of carnage ahead.  I hope I'm wrong.  I'm still in cash but the next big down day, I'll start putting chips back into play.  I got out at 2850.  

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21217

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Blotto said:

Glad I took plenty of profits from my puts on the way down, because the ones I'm left holding are getting destroyed now. I'll see where we're at on Monday, but may close out my remaining ITM puts then and just keep the July 225, which not surprisingly are no longer in the green. Doesnt seem like betting against the fed right now is a wise choice.

I only have profits at risk right now.  So if in some bizarre twist we don't test lows at all I'll still get out even and had a damn good time doing it.  Even with puts/options is a got damn win. 

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