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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9431

Posted
Posted

Gonna be a long slog... still content to sit this out for a while

Based on the num­ber of Amer­i­cans work­ing in jobs that re­quire di­rect con­tact with oth­ers, and the num­ber in higher-risk un­salaried po­si­tions, St. Louis Fed­eral Re­serve econ­o­mists es­ti­mate that 52.8 mil­lion Amer­i­cans could be un­em­ployed next quar­ter. That is 32.1% of the la­bor force, a nine­fold in­crease in job­less­ness.

Even pre­sum­ing that 90% of the work­ers fur­loughed re­turn to their pre­vi­ous jobs in a few months at pre­vi­ous salaries and that the busi­nesses they work for re­sume ex­actly their pre­vi­ous health, that would leave an un­em­ploy­ment rate of some­thing like 6% based on the size of the la­bor force now. That level of un­em­ploy­ment was last seen in mid-2014, when the S&P 500 was strug­gling to break north of 2000.

And even in the best re­cov­ery sce­nario, there is lit­tle dis­cus­sion about long-term im­pact on con­fi­dence and con­sump­tion. Re­search sug­gests that even af­ter rel­a­tively short bouts of un­em­ploy-ment, work­ers keep their con­sump-tion lower to re­build fi­nan­cial buf­fers eroded dur­ing their job­less­ness.

We still know un­com­fort­ably lit­tle about the virus and, more im­por-tant, about the ef­fi­cacy of the var­i­ous meth­ods em­ployed to halt its spread. But most sce­nar­ios look worse than the one mar­kets ap­pear to be an­tic­i­pat­ing. Sec­ondary out­breaks in re­gions that ap­pear to be past the worst, or even to have de­feated the epi­demic, are a grim pos­si­bil­ity.

De­bate will rage for years about how poorly pre­pared mar­kets were for this cri­sis—whether they gave too lit­tle weight to high cor­po­rate debt lev­els for ex­am­ple. On a price-to-earn­ings mea­sure, eq­ui­ties were richly val­ued when the storm struck. And at 14.4 times earn­ings for the next 12 months, the S&P 500 is still priced close to its 15-year av­er­age, nowhere near the lows reached in 2011, when that mul­ti­ple fell to as low as 10.

Of course, it isn’t im­pos­si­ble that the bot­tom has been reached. But cau­tious in­vestors might want to ask whether they see more op­por­tu­ni­ties for U.S. eq­ui­ties to rise 10% in the next month, or fall 10%.

It is hard to es­cape the con­clu­sion that, es­pe­cially in the eq­uity mar­ket, cur­rent pric­ing still re­flects an op­ti­mistic take on the range of eco­nomic and pub­lic-health out­comes.
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5543

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I only have profits at risk right now.  So if in some bizarre twist we don't test lows at all I'll still get out even and had a damn good time doing it.  Even with puts/options is a got damn win. 

Yeah that's where I am, but they are much smaller than they should be and I'm kinda pissed that I missed the bounce coming right at me.

I've closed out all my positions though April because day to day it's too volatile. But there is more bad economic news coming, but it could be offset if the virus slows significantly .... and who knows about that

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52-80

52-80 19150

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6 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Yeah that's where I am, but they are much smaller than they should be and I'm kinda pissed that I missed the bounce coming right at me.

I've closed out all my positions though April because day to day it's too volatile. But there is more bad economic news coming, but it could be offset if the virus slows significantly .... and who knows about that

The Risk I Took Was Calculated | Know Your Meme

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5543

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I remember when OPEC + Russia discussing production limits would have been big news, not sure how much this could affect the markets

https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-opec-russia-rdif/russias-rdif-new-opec-deal-possible-to-address-demand-if-others-join-idUSR4N2B4012

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MOSCOW, March 27 (Reuters) - Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), believes a new OPEC+ deal to balance oil markets might be possible if other nations joined it and that countries should cooperate to mitigate the economic fallout from coronavirus.

“Joint actions by countries are needed to restore the(global) economy... They (joint actions) are also possible in OPEC+ (group of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC members) deal’s framework,” Dmitriev told Reuters in a phone interview.

Russia is a leading non-OPEC member and Saudi Arabia is a key OPEC player. A deal between OPEC and other oil producing nations to curb production to support prices fell apart earlier this month after a failure to agree how to address falling oil demand hit by coronavirus, sending global oil prices into a tailspin.

 

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aggie08

aggie08 21496

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, stone oak said:

Jesus fuck, can we keep the goddamn motherfucking politics out of the fucking market thread.

TIA

Pointing out that a politician looks like shit isn't political. Everyone has eyes.

Edited by aggie08
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mdmost

mdmost 43001

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Just now, Parliament said:

This thread is active enough as it is.  There is an entire other board over there for politics.  Please take your politics over there and leave the rest us to lose money in peace.

Oh shut the fuck up. It was a joke about Boris Johnson looking like shit. Lighten the fuck up.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

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3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

This thread is active enough as it is.  There is an entire other board over there for politics.  Please take your politics over there and leave the rest us to lose money in peace.

YOu don't think the Prime Minister of the UK catching this virus will move markets?  Politics got nothing to do with it.

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aggie08

aggie08 21496

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3 minutes ago, Parliament said:

This thread is active enough as it is.  There is an entire other board over there for politics.  Please take your politics over there and leave the rest us to lose money in peace.

Again, sarcastically pointing out that ugly, unhealthy human beings are ugly and unhealthy is not a political take. That's probably the only time that I've ever typed out a politician's name in my time here or on shaggy, and I sure as shit don't visit the Cloak Room. It would have been just another passing comment had you guys not arbitrarily decided that it was "political."

But whatever, I won't mention another politician in any context whatsoever. Carry on.

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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6 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Again, sarcastically pointing out that ugly, unhealthy human beings are ugly and unhealthy is not a political take. That's probably the only time that I've ever typed out a politician's name in my time here or on shaggy, and I sure as shit don't visit the Cloak Room. It would have been just another passing comment had you guys not arbitrarily decided that it was "political."

But whatever, I won't mention another politician in any context whatsoever. Carry on.

You have to say "No cloak room". Then it's all good.

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Loco

Loco 3752

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Posted
1 minute ago, McCroskey said:

When does the house finally vote?

lulz...  you can't talk about that here... Safe to say it will happen, but it's been delayed.  That's all I'll say about that.

I do wonder if it has already been priced in...  I assume it already has.

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