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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
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Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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McCroskey

McCroskey 1,504

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31 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I was thinking about adding to my SOXS but decided I’m not making any moves until late Monday at the earliest.  I don’t want to step in front of this portfolio rebalancing that’s going on.  After end of the month there’s bound to be some profit taking from this bounce.

Looks like a lot are cashing out now.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14,590

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Wanted to report back from the Retail Front.  It's been a week or so since my last update.  I'm not putting this in the Virus thread but that thread is insane at this point.

Anyway, consumer buying has waned a bit but is still strong.  Foot traffic is down from its peak 10 days ago (thank God) but it is still relatively strong and baskets are still big.  Big Food has also hit their limit.  Almost all of the major players are completely out of everything and are able to make maybe 60% of current demand.  (This varies by category.)  Assortments are being drastically reduced.  No more long tail items.  It'll only be the basics and even then it will take Big Food 2-4 weeks to catch up and even then, they'll have to allocate.  Shelves may be empty for a few weeks in some cases and smaller players are being told it may be months before they get anything at all.

Consumption has definitely changed.  With no one eating out anymore, people are eating prolly double or triple than what they were previously eating before.  The American food industry is weird.  There is actually quite a bit of food in the network, it's just divided up between Food Service and Retail.  You're starting to see some redirection in that now.  Some that previously went to FS is now being modified to consumer retail.  All the major chains are still selling out of everything they have.

Also, it may have been covered in the other thread but truckers all got letters from their employers that designates them emergency essential personnel so in the event of domestic travel bans, they'll be able to cross state lines.

For the non grocery retailers (apparel and the like), I honestly don't know how some of these guys are going to survive.  I saw where Gap suspended its dividend today.  They won't be only one.  This segment was particularly strained before all of this but this could be the nail in the coffin for a lot of them.

I don't see current trends changing anytime in the next few months.

 

 

 

 

 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,943

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26 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Wanted to report back from the Retail Front.  It's been a week or so since my last update.  I'm not putting this in the Virus thread but that thread is insane at this point.

Anyway, consumer buying has waned a bit but is still strong.  Foot traffic is down from its peak 10 days ago (thank God) but it is still relatively strong and baskets are still big.  Big Food has also hit their limit.  Almost all of the major players are completely out of everything and are able to make maybe 60% of current demand.  (This varies by category.)  Assortments are being drastically reduced.  No more long tail items.  It'll only be the basics and even then it will take Big Food 2-4 weeks to catch up and even then, they'll have to allocate.  Shelves may be empty for a few weeks in some cases and smaller players are being told it may be months before they get anything at all.

Consumption has definitely changed.  With no one eating out anymore, people are eating prolly double or triple than what they were previously eating before.  The American food industry is weird.  There is actually quite a bit of food in the network, it's just divided up between Food Service and Retail.  You're starting to see some redirection in that now.  Some that previously went to FS is now being modified to consumer retail.  All the major chains are still selling out of everything they have.

Also, it may have been covered in the other thread but truckers all got letters from their employers that designates them emergency essential personnel so in the event of domestic travel bans, they'll be able to cross state lines.

For the non grocery retailers (apparel and the like), I honestly don't know how some of these guys are going to survive.  I saw where Gap suspended its dividend today.  They won't be only one.  This segment was particularly strained before all of this but this could be the nail in the coffin for a lot of them.

I don't see current trends changing anytime in the next few months.

 

 

 

 

 

DNAgal is an apparel buyer.

Just got furloughed for at least 3 weeks. Probably longer.

Her vendors are all furloughing their workers too. 
So it looks like up and down the whole clothing supply chain that everyone is out of a pay check for now.

And you’re right about the nail in the coffin. Not all retailers are going to make it. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,346

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16 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

DNAgal is an apparel buyer.

Just got furloughed for at least 3 weeks. Probably longer.

Her vendors are all furloughing their workers too. 
So it looks like up and down the whole clothing supply chain that everyone is out of a pay check for now.

And you’re right about the nail in the coffin. Not all retailers are going to make it. 

Puts on BX, BXMT and others (especially mall REITs) would have been a big winner, and still could be.  

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,190

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2 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

It’s funny people here saying there is a lot of profit taking going on in the market. Recency bias much?

Lot of traders are just that; traders not investors.  A couple of days is eternity for them and they account for a lot of volume.  Profit taking is definitely a factor; that's why dead cat bounces happen.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14,590

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1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

DNAgal is an apparel buyer.

Just got furloughed for at least 3 weeks. Probably longer.

Her vendors are all furloughing their workers too. 
So it looks like up and down the whole clothing supply chain that everyone is out of a pay check for now.

And you’re right about the nail in the coffin. Not all retailers are going to make it. 

Yeah, even if the Chinese factories are back online, no one is ordering anything on our end.  "It's a big shit sandwich and everyone is gonna have to take a bite."

God knows no one is buying any clothes right now since we're all just sitting around our houses.

 

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gsoda3

gsoda3 3,254

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 It'll only be the basics and even then it will take Big Food 2-4 weeks to catch up and even then, they'll have to allocate.  Shelves may be empty for a few weeks in some cases and smaller players are being told it may be months before they get anything at all.
 

 


Is this for all items or are there different breakdowns for meat vs dairy vs canned goods etc? If you have time I'd be interested to hear your opinions on different products and their timelines for restocking.
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gsoda3

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I was thinking about adding to my SOXS but decided I’m not making any moves until late Monday at the earliest.  I don’t want to step in front of this portfolio rebalancing that’s going on.  After end of the month there’s bound to be some profit taking from this bounce.
The rebalancing could be a net buy OR a net sell. Here's what I would do: on Tuesday in the last 5 minutes of the trading day if the market is moving your way, get out. Don't wait til after the close or til the next day. Do it right away. If in the last 5 minutes it's moving away from you just stay in it and see what happens Wednesday.
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,190

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2 hours ago, gsoda3 said:
7 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:
 

The rebalancing could be a net buy OR a net sell. Here's what I would do: on Tuesday in the last 5 minutes of the trading day if the market is moving your way, get out. Don't wait til after the close or til the next day. Do it right away. If in the last 5 minutes it's moving away from you just stay in it and see what happens Wednesday.

When I'm playing with these unpinned hand grenades like SOXL I keep the position so small that if it runs up 30% I'm not going to get rich and if it crashes 50% no big deal.  But if we have a good run during the day then a pullback at the end I'm willing to consider adding to my position and put a stop at my break even.  Normally I don't put stops because I keep the position size so small in relation to my overall account.  I use these fuckers to skim $500 intraday or shoot for $800 to $1,000 if I carry it overnight / weekend.  Win or lose is not going to change my lifestyle either way.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,152

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10 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

When I'm playing with these unpinned hand grenades like SOXL I keep the position so small that if it runs up 30% I'm not going to get rich and if it crashes 50% no big deal.  But if we have a good run during the day then a pullback at the end I'm willing to consider adding to my position and put a stop at my break even.  Normally I don't put stops because I keep the position size so small in relation to my overall account.  I use these fuckers to skim $500 intraday or shoot for $800 to $1,000 if I carry it overnight / weekend.  Win or lose is not going to change my lifestyle either way.

I also love to be 100% disciplined when playing with unpinned hand grenades.  If only that’s how life worked...

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,152

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6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

We all have choices.

Agree...nothing against what you posted at all.  At times I wish I was more risk averse.  My highs are higher than most and my lows are pretty damn low.  That's just me.  Told my wife a long time ago, it's gonna be a hell of a ride if you decide to hitch your wagon to this nut.  God bless her. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19,190

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Agree...nothing against what you posted at all.  At times I wish I was more risk averse.  My highs are higher than most and my lows are pretty damn low.  That's just me.  Told my wife a long time ago, it's gonna be a hell of a ride if you decide to hitch your wagon to this nut.  God bless her. 

Oh, and this discipline I espouse came with a LOT of tuition.  I lost a fuckton of money when the XIV ETF went tits up.  Bought a decent sized position five minutes into the close, was up 10% at the bell then lost 97% in after hours when I couldn't do shit.  That was a lesson.

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Lurch

Lurch 5,930

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So I never heard of zoom before COVID, but my kids now refer to videoconferencing as zooming. They just locked in an entire generation+. 


Yep, we have it integrated in slack and it’s constantly “quick zoom?”, “zoom please”, “/zoom meeting xyz” etc. I bet I say, type or read it a dozen times a day, plus putting it on every calendar event.

I had never heard of it before Mar 2 when I started a new job where it had previously only been used occasionally and we didn’t even know what license we had.
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,152

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24 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

So I never heard of zoom before COVID, but my kids now refer to videoconferencing as zooming. They just locked in an entire generation+. 

We have used it a while.  At first all callers cam’s were automatically turned on when you connected.  Let’s just say that led to some interesting conferences.  

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,469

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1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

We have used it a while.  At first all callers cam’s were automatically turned on when you connected.  Let’s just say that led to some interesting conferences.  

last time i swapped out laptops that happened.  It was a 7am call with euros. let's just say texas representing. 

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Okie State

Okie State 3,818

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We started using WebEx a few months back. It works pretty well now that everyone is getting used to it. Nobody wanted to adopt it, but now we're forced to. Audio is shit at times, but that may be due to everyone calling in from cell phones. The network has definitely been getting slammed so we only use video if necessary. The app on my phone lets me call in from the back porch without my laptop while I'm drinking a beer and I can still see everything that is being shared. Pretty cool.

 

 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,510

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Jumped into my first MS Teams meeting yesterday. I was a complete noob and had the computer microphone and phone both unmuted at the same time. I guess everyone has to do that once. 

While I still prefer WebEx, I can see the ease of integrating my Teams chats, pages, files along with quick calls.  Teams could be a strong contender to replace WebEx for me.

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Okie State

Okie State 3,818

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We also have Teams and it was supposed to replace Skype, but hasn't yet. I haven't tried a meeting through Teams. Not sure why we have WebEx, Teams, and Skype. Oh yeah because we're a big corporation.

Also a co-worker unknowingly had her webcam on with WebEx yesterday. I sent her an IM to let her know and she dove under her desk. Pretty funny to watch.

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Parliament

Parliament 14,255

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With Skype and Zoom, we run into external users (customers) with network security filters that don't let them in. Some don't like Skype and some don't like Zoom. I don't recall ever a problem with Webex, but we dropped them a year ago.

 

ETA

My webcam has big light that comes on when you're using it. Also has a nice, big, latching lens cover for when you aren't using it. Very nice.

 

 

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52-80

52-80 19,150

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21 minutes ago, Okie State said:

We also have Teams and it was supposed to replace Skype, but hasn't yet. I haven't tried a meeting through Teams. Not sure why we have WebEx, Teams, and Skype. Oh yeah because we're a big corporation.

Also a co-worker unknowingly had her webcam on with WebEx yesterday. I sent her an IM to let her know and she dove under her desk. Pretty funny to watch.

Was she nekkid?

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52-80

52-80 19,150

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49 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Vanguard's Total Stock Index (Wilshire 5000) and Total International Stock funds paid dividends this week. How are those dividends determined? It's not just the underlying stocks' dividends accumulated for 3 months than paid out. It's more complicated than that, right?

It came out of their stimulus checks

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23,469

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23 minutes ago, Okie State said:

We also have Teams and it was supposed to replace Skype, but hasn't yet. I haven't tried a meeting through Teams. Not sure why we have WebEx, Teams, and Skype. Oh yeah because we're a big corporation.

Also a co-worker unknowingly had her webcam on with WebEx yesterday. I sent her an IM to let her know and she dove under her desk. Pretty funny to watch.

Same set up here. MS making moves with teams deployment? 

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