Markets still falling like whoa

[Dnaguy 11,944]

The market is up? What am missing?

[Smax 3,800]

early morning tease

[Not a cat 5,652]

8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Remember the lawmakers who made some....questionable stock trades after getting a briefing on the covid stuff back in January and early February?  Including the Senator whose husband is the chairman of the NYSE?

Turns out the Department of Justice and the SEC (not the incesty SEC) would like a word with them, and the FBI is helping out.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/justice-stock-trades-lawmakers-coronavirus/index.html

But it’s routine to have an investigation when something looks fishy, as the article mentions, and it doesn’t mean they are guilty.

Not defending the guy, but what's the crime they want to investigate?  Even if the report he got said "GDP will decrease by 30% and unemployment will hit double digits " it's not insider info as it was general market conditions and not specific to a company.   Oh sure, it looks bad in a "let them eat cake" kind of way but what's the actual crime they are investigating?

[atomheartbevo 89,648]

10 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Not defending the guy, but what's the crime they want to investigate?  Even if the report he got said "GDP will decrease by 30% and unemployment will hit double digits " it's not insider info as it was general market conditions and not specific to a company.   Oh sure, it looks bad in a "let them eat cake" kind of way but what's the actual crime they are investigating?

They were getting classified briefings from Dr. Fauci and Co.about the severity of the virus    

The Senator whose hubby is Chairman if the NYSE actually bought stock in Citrix.   Complete coincidence.  

[Not a cat 5,652]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

They were getting classified briefings from Dr. Fauci and Co.about the severity of the virus    

The Senator whose hubby is Chairman if the NYSE actually bought stock in Citrix.   Complete coincidence.  

Ahh, so the theory is not insider trading but that he violated regs regarding the sharing of classified information with his spouse?  I can get behind that.

Again, not defending this asshat, I just think if the DOJ is investigating it should be under the premise of an actual crime.  Otherwise, the remedy is voting the idiot out of office.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,510]

The 1700s practice tar and feathering was a good consequence of poorly behaving public officials. Perhaps you didn't break the law but you earned a punishment.

[bernorange 8,359]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They were getting classified briefings from Dr. Fauci and Co.about the severity of the virus    

...

I suspect they were also privy to discussions about the response plans to the virus.  They had advance knowledge of how the government was going to shut down the country (and economy).

[TonyTexas 10,510]

20 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

This will end poorly for David Portnoy.

Lulz. I just watched him accidentally short 40,000 shares of Abbott Labs. He meant to go long. Lost $30k in minutes. 
 

Edited March 30, 2020 by TonyTexas

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Lulz. I just watched him accidentally short 40,000 shares of Abbott Labs. He meant to go long. Lost $30k in minutes. 
 

He can’t even enter orders correctly. Lolol

 

[Anastasis 23,469]

I think that the run in Pharma is interesting.  I understand that they are going to pop with all the various news around diagnostics, treatments, and vaccines. OK.  Most of those treatments probably won't go anywhere, the vax is some time off, in the short-term the diagnostics will be huge. 

But the longer term implications on pipeline to market haven't really been discussed much at all.  There are a lot of pivotal phase 2/3 studies that are going to be impacted, if not outright halted.  FDA released new non-binding guidance on trial conduct during COVID: https://www.fda.gov/media/136238/download.  Some of those studies are going to have their data borked by COVID. Some will have to reboot their trials, others may be able to modify their protocols to continue, but seems to me that costs and timelines will both extend. Seems like there is an opportunity to screen for companies that are particularly financially dependent on timely approval of novel agents that are in late phase 3.  These guys are likely going to read out some bad news on their trial progress at some point in the future. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

30 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Seems like there is an opportunity to screen for companies that are particularly financially dependent on timely approval of novel agents that are in late phase 3.  These guys are likely going to read out some bad news on their trial progress at some point in the future. 

The easiest way to screen for these companies is look at which pharma companies are the worst performers over the last month.  If they are on life support, the market already knows.

[Eastwood 4,394]

RIP my 4/1 SPY P 250

[Wally Fairway 5,543]

So it looks like no matter what the bad news is (shutdown possible until June1, 100,000+ rona deaths, 200,000+, global recession), it is all priced into the market

 

[Eastwood 4,394]

2 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

So it looks like no matter what the bad news is (shutdown possible until June1, 100,000+ rona deaths, 200,000+, global recession), it is all priced into the market

 

I think people just haven't capitulated, yet. There are a bunch of earnings calls going out on April 24 that might do the trick, though.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

What is the macro outlook past the short term? We saw the Fed use starter fluid in 2008-09.

I would beware of dividend stocks as "safety" - lower the dividend and the price gets smashed.

The Fed is using heavy artillery (MMT proven right again - debt does not matter).

PE is using their cash (that has been on the sidelines) for distressed bargains.

In general, if you can't spot the sucker at the table, it's probably you. (I include myself in that category)

Good luck everyone. 

[52-80 19,150]

37 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

RIP my 4/1 SPY P 250

 

[The People’s Elbow 707]

29 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I think people just haven't capitulated, yet. There are a bunch of earnings calls going out on April 24 that might do the trick, though.

Nope. They’re already priced in. 

[Parliament 14,255]

 Macy's Inc said on Monday it would furlough most of its 130,000-strong workforce starting this week as all stores of the department chain operator have been temporarily shut due to the coronavirus pandemic.

So they're keeping their office and online folks on, right?  Regardless, Macy's ain't coming back.  You gotta wonder how many of their stores will reopen at all.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/macys-furlough-most-130-000-153006510.html

[Henry Hill 3,156]

18 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I'd be amazed if S&P didn't drop a 100+ tomorrow.  If Trump has no issue already pushing these measures to April 30, then you know Memorial Day is very much in play for many of these measures to be extended to.  I has a sad about the MDW vegas trip.  I still think slowly opening up restaurants etc with precautions in May is realistic...packed bars and football?  Yikes

 

 

[52-80 19,150]

Age old winning strategy proves right again:  listen to what people on the internet say*, and put your money in the opposite.

 

(*i put myself in that group)

[Dnaguy 11,944]

Nothing like having oil down 8% And almost < $20  .... and have Chevron and She’ll up 4%.

[LTtxfan 49,170]

7 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Nothing like having oil down 8% And almost < $20  .... and have Chevron and She’ll up 4%.

Maybe Trump talking to Putin rumor is causing more speculation on CVX and RDS.A ??

[GRHorn 105]

3 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Lulz. I just watched him accidentally short 40,000 shares of Abbott Labs. He meant to go long. Lost $30k in minutes. 
 

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,152]

1 hour ago, Henry Hill said:

 

 

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Age old winning strategy proves right again:  listen to what people on the internet say*, and put your money in the opposite.

 

(*i put myself in that group)

Ha.  There’s still nearly 2 hrs left.  All it takes is 5 min to drop 50 points on s&p these days.  But I have been right way more than wrong since this mess started.  That’s what happens when you’re bearish these days...

[Dnaguy 11,944]

21 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I'd be amazed if S&P didn't drop a 100+ tomorrow.  If Trump has no issue already pushing these measures to April 30, then you know Memorial Day is very much in play for many of these measures to be extended to.  I has a sad about the MDW vegas trip.  I still think slowly opening up restaurants etc with precautions in May is realistic...packed bars and football?  Yikes

 

[TonyTexas 10,510]

Portnoy’s day trading live stream is entertaining. Going into the close he was long 100k shares of Abbott Labs and 75k shares of Spirit Air. $9 million in total. 
 

The guy really doesn’t have a clue. Doesn’t know what shorting is, trying to learn options on the fly. The pros are going to get wind of him and teach him a few things. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,152]

1 minute ago, Dnaguy said:

Color me amazed. 
 

Still keeping all my powder dry.  Zero worries.  

[Thetexashammer 1,062]

Excellent interview with Jim Grant.

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Thetexashammer

[Dnaguy 11,944]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

Color me amazed. 
 

Still keeping all my powder dry.  Zero worries.  

[Henry Hill 3,156]

[HRSchenker 2,268]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Age old winning strategy proves right again:  listen to what people on the internet say*, and put your money in the opposite.

 

(*i put myself in that group)

Man you're not kidding. I feel like a clown

[Anastasis 23,469]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Age old winning strategy proves right again:  listen to what people on the internet say*, and put your money in the opposite.

 

(*i put myself in that group)

On that note, I am 40% back into equities over the last week in trading account (KO, SBUX, VZ, SPY, wee poco XOM and ABT). Buying in 5% a week in the 401k heavy to large caps. A very small #stonk play opened on 4/17 USO calls at close cause this ain't any fun without some sweat.

So that means we are about to retest lows and oil will go to $-0. 

Edited March 30, 2020 by Anastasis
twenty, forty, what's the difference.

[bernorange 8,359]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

... So that means we are about to retest lows and oil will go to $-0. 

Thanks for your service.

[52-80 19,150]

34 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

On that note, I am 40% back into equities over the last week in trading account (KO, SBUX, VZ, SPY, wee poco XOM and ABT). Buying in 5% a week in the 401k heavy to large caps. A very small #stonk play opened on 4/17 USO calls at close cause this ain't any fun without some sweat.

So that means we are about to retest lows and oil will go to $-0. 

Yeah, I'm the same, I think I'm at about 1/3rd bought back in (long) in my retirement accounts

So while I'm sour about my play money being burned, it's good for the real money, and for most folks out there as well

[Lurch 5,930]

I’m holding at 90% on sidelines and 10% on S&P index

[The People’s Elbow 707]

3 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Portnoy’s day trading live stream is entertaining. Going into the close he was long 100k shares of Abbott Labs and 75k shares of Spirit Air. $9 million in total. 
 

The guy really doesn’t have a clue. Doesn’t know what shorting is, trying to learn options on the fly. The pros are going to get wind of him and teach him a few things. 

Where’s he streaming? I looked around but couldn't find.   

[TonyTexas 10,510]

10 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Where’s he streaming? I looked around but couldn't find.   

https://twitter.com/stoolpresidente

[Trey3216 15,346]

Hey, China says their March manufacturing came in ahead of expectations.  
 

~Idontbelieveyou.gif

[dcar00 14,181]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Hey, China says their March manufacturing came in ahead of expectations.  
 

~Idontbelieveyou.gif

actually I believe them on that.  I was hearing a month ago they were at 90% capacity.  

[Trey3216 15,346]

Just now, dcar00 said:

actually I believe them on that.  I was hearing a month ago they were at 90% capacity.  

I’m not sure I can believe a damn thing they say, as if I did to begin with.  Must be making a lot of canned dog soup 

[Wally Fairway 5,543]

10 hours ago, Eastwood said:

I think people just haven't capitulated, yet. There are a bunch of earnings calls going out on April 24 that might do the trick, though.

Yeah - I think the big gasp will come when companies say they cannot provide any guidance, because those earnings calls in April are going to say that the return to normal operations is unknown.
But really that only affects little companies like airlines, hotels, restaurants, Disney & entertainment, anything O&G, mortgage lenders, business lenders, retail (excl big food), and all of their suppliers.

Then again I'm beginning to believe that it's all already priced into the market - so back to setting all time index highs right about the time college football starts again
(oh and by the way, can someone remind me when football starts this year?)

[Parliament 14,255]

My puts are not going to be able to pay for the hookers and blow I have on order.  Wally, you wanna split these with me?

[gsoda3 3,254]

actually I believe them on that.  I was hearing a month ago they were at 90% capacity.  

Fwiw our analysts are saying most factories are > 50% production with many at 90% or above and have been for at least a week. The earliest reports from the beginning of March had factories in the south at 90% filling backlogs.

[Trey3216 15,346]

23 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

actually I believe them on that.  I was hearing a month ago they were at 90% capacity.  

Fwiw our analysts are saying most factories are > 50% production with many at 90% or above and have been for at least a week. The earliest reports from the beginning of March had factories in the south at 90% filling backlogs.

I would be fine with China sitting on all that shit forever.  

[gsoda3 3,254]

I would be fine with China sitting on all that shit forever.  

That's not going to happen

[Anastasis 23,469]

[bluto 4,916]

saw a 'stat' today that if you bought every day at 935AM and sold at close you'd be up slightly over the last 6ish weeks. in that same time period, if you had bought at close then sold at 935AM the next day you'd be down 30%. 

[UTexasFight 9,431]

saw a 'stat' today that if you bought every day at 935AM and sold at close you'd be up slightly over the last 6ish weeks. in that same time period, if you had bought at close then sold at 935AM the next day you'd be down 30%. 

I posted this about the Tuesday bump last week

any investor holding equities knows this has been a terrible year. That is, any investor who hasn’t been buying at the close on Monday and selling 24 hours later.

Though the S&P 500 index is still down by around 24% in 2020, a series of strong Tuesdays means an investor who held S&P 500 stocks on the second day of the working week alone would be up more than 16%.

Holding the same stocks on any other day of the week would have produced returns varying from Friday’s modest -2.8% to Monday’s horrendous -19.5%.

It isn’t a new phenomenon. In 2008, investors also would have made money in a dismal year for stocks globally by holding U.S. equities on Tuesdays alone. Since 1980, Tuesdays have been the best day of the week for the index by far.

One folk theory behind the pattern is that during bear markets, traders react to bad news over the weekend in bleak Monday trading, and recover on Tuesdays as investors reverse a perceived overreaction.

Once again, believers in market efficiency may be left scratching their heads.

[dad 557]

12 hours ago, Parliament said:

 Macy's Inc said on Monday it would furlough most of its 130,000-strong workforce starting this week as all stores of the department chain operator have been temporarily shut due to the coronavirus pandemic.

So they're keeping their office and online folks on, right?  Regardless, Macy's ain't coming back.  You gotta wonder how many of their stores will reopen at all.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/macys-furlough-most-130-000-153006510.html

Forget Macy's, what about Sears?! Surely this is the last straw.

[Grade of D as in David 13,253]

6 hours ago, dad said:

Forget Macy's, what about Sears?! Surely this is the last straw.

JCP is probably done too.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2019/12/27/struggling-retailers-2020-forever-21-jcpenney-davids-bridal/4386889002/