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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11944

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Posted

I think we end up another 500-700 pts today.

People are getting used to the idea that 500 ppl are dying in day and don’t mind 1000 or so olds kicking the bucket.

They don’t have anywhere else to put their money.

 The stimulus money and unemployment seem enough to keep those from pulling anymore $ out right now.

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Captainant

Captainant 27654

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This is fucking looney tunes. Biggest unemployment numbers EVER and the markets rise the following week? Like, I get that money machine goes brrr, but the capital isn't going to be staying in circulation - it's going straight to institutions and long-term instruments which isn't gonna do dick to keep local businesses going.

Is this just another bout of economic coke-fiend-ery?

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TexasGolf

TexasGolf 4896

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

This is fucking looney tunes. Biggest unemployment numbers EVER and the markets rise the following week? Like, I get that money machine goes brrr, but the capital isn't going to be staying in circulation - it's going straight to institutions and long-term instruments which isn't gonna do dick to keep local businesses going.

Is this just another bout of economic coke-fiend-ery?

rigged more than a big 12 refed game

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Captainant said:

This is fucking looney tunes. Biggest unemployment numbers EVER and the markets rise the following week? Like, I get that money machine goes brrr, but the capital isn't going to be staying in circulation - it's going straight to institutions and long-term instruments which isn't gonna do dick to keep local businesses going.

Is this just another bout of economic coke-fiend-ery?

This market is a craps table, not a rational price setting mechanism. 

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

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50 minutes ago, Captainant said:

This is fucking looney tunes. Biggest unemployment numbers EVER and the markets rise the following week? Like, I get that money machine goes brrr, but the capital isn't going to be staying in circulation - it's going straight to institutions and long-term instruments which isn't gonna do dick to keep local businesses going.

Is this just another bout of economic coke-fiend-ery?

This is the market tickling our balls right before if pounds us in the ass

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5543

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Captainant said:

This is fucking looney tunes. Biggest unemployment numbers EVER and the markets rise the following week? Like, I get that money machine goes brrr, but the capital isn't going to be staying in circulation - it's going straight to institutions and long-term instruments which isn't gonna do dick to keep local businesses going.

Is this just another bout of economic coke-fiend-ery?

All of that has already been discounted by the market, I believe the market is now looking past the 2020 recession/depression and election, past the 2021 rebound/recovery, past 2022 mid-term elections and into 2035 when I can finally retire and it will all fall to shit so I have to go back to work.

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aggie08

aggie08 21497

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15 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

All of that has already been discounted by the market, I believe the market is now looking past the 2020 recession/depression and election, past the 2021 rebound/recovery, past 2022 mid-term elections and into 2035 when I can finally retire and it will all fall to shit so I have to go back to work.

Ah, so the market has already priced in the C- that my 3-month old is going to get in her 9th grade pre-calc class. Damn you, market!

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

This is fucking looney tunes. Biggest unemployment numbers EVER and the markets rise the following week? Like, I get that money machine goes brrr, but the capital isn't going to be staying in circulation - it's going straight to institutions and long-term instruments which isn't gonna do dick to keep local businesses going.

Is this just another bout of economic coke-fiend-ery?

With that line of thinking, I bought a 1 May 20 20 call for Synchrony. Two reason, one being that Synchrony has been digging into the small business sector and small businesses will be taking out loans with them, and two being that the stimulus money is going to be dumped into bills with Synchrony accounts being one of them. Their earnings call on April 21 will let me know if it was a good bet or not.

Edited by Eastwood
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dcar00

dcar00 14181

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Was going to put kids’ college money into a 529 in late January and got lazy. Glad I didn’t buy them. Yall get your shit together and tell me when to buy in. For some reason I trust the surl more than Merrill Lynch douche.  Kthxbai. 

how old are they?  

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3335

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1 hour ago, Harrison Stafford said:

We may rally a few more days before the koolaid wears off. Opened a second position today In SOXS at $15.78.   

Sold at $16.83. As I said, the market feels like it wants to run for a few more days.  If you’re short term bearish, this would be a good time  to cover.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5543

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Parliament said:

My puts are not going to be able to pay for the hookers and blow I have on order.  Wally, you wanna split these with me?

Fuck YEAH - I've decided to justify my existence with the irrational thought that the last week, and especially these last few days has been fund falsely propping up the market in order to not have all-out armageddon cash call from once a quarter fund checkers all deciding to bail when they check their balances starting tomorrow ... maybe even tonight

#YOLO #STONKLIFE

fuckit - floorit!!!!

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

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Structurally, european countries are very constrained in their response to the virus in terms of their fiscal and monetary response. Italy, for example, cannot simply print money. The general feeling is that Italians don't work hard and have overspent, somewhat like people feel about the Greeks, who only obtained membership based upon lies enable by Goldman Sachs. So no one wants to help.

http://blog.ilgiornale.it/bertirotti/2020/03/30/noi-leuropa-e-la-verita/

"They don't want to help us because our public debt, which continues to rise every second, has allowed us to live beyond our means. And we have accumulated too much of it. Therefore, the countries of northern Europe are obstructing, in this moment of pandemic, thinking of an after  with the same categories as the first . And they do it believing that the economic need concerns only the Mediterranean countries. They seem convinced, with this reasoning, that we are the culprits of the pandemic situation."

The big discussion now is about debt mutualization. What they were calling "Eurobonds", and what they're now calling "Coronabonds". And of course, Merkel and company are having none of it. The Germans can't stand the Italians, and I learned in Rome 30 years ago the Italians can't stand the Germans as well. 

So the Italians have been very constrained in their ability to spend money. They already had the highest interest rates and the worst debt/gdp of the major countries in europe. Was over 130% before the crisis.

Spoiler

italy-government-debt-to-gdp.png?s=itade

Now the economy will crash at least 25% and spending will increase significantly, if they can find the cash. So the deficit will blow out, probably >10% of GDP. Italian 10 year bonds are paying 1.5%, solely because of the implicit ECB backstop. Absent that, they're would be at Greece pre bailout levels, like 30-50%. The ECB has been used as a method to backdoor mutualization (buying bonds that will never be paid back) for both Greece and Italy. There has been discussion of the ECB writing off those debts. Which would cause a fucking riot in Germany. The ECB has recently pledged a quite modest $750 billion in open market purchases for the entire EU, not merely Italy.

Remember, when Italy asked for help from the EU and other governments, only China responded. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/14/coronavirus-eu-abandoning-italy-china-aid/

Coronabonds were rejected at the last EU summit.

If you've been to Italy, you've probably noticed there are a whole lot of EU flags hanging off buildings. I kind of understand the feeling, it's a kind of inferiority, a kind of hope you get from being part of something bigger. And then the frustration that comes when you see the failure of aforementioned gigantic, impersonal, and ultimately uncaring, unelected supranational government. Here's a story about Italians taking down their EU flags. Keep in mind, that's a europhile outlet printing that.

Italian banks, not gonna do the detailed analysis, but a fair assessment of their value is zero, IMO. They've been extending and pretending since 2008. They'll mostly go bankrupt, and quickly. https://www.barrons.com/articles/italys-banks-will-struggle-under-the-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-fitch-51584112889 

There is a good chance for a V-shaped recovery in the US. The US has workable leadership and a great starting point. That is not the case here, because Italy neither controls it's currency nor its central bank and has been shrinking its economy for 20 years. In October of 2019, unemployment was 9.7%. And the EU (mostly Frau Merkel) has basically said go fuck yourself. Italy has been in decline for twenty years. Debt to GDP is headed to >200% in the near term.

Italians are a very frustrated and unhappy people. The obvious best response is leave the monetary union and inflate. My sense, however poorly I'm able to discern these things, is that their media is controlled by the europhiles and there isn't an organized "small government" movement. The Lega may benefit in the end, they are the anti-EU party. I honestly think Italy is much closer to the end of whatever the narrative is than anyone, at this point, realizes. They have a docile media and corrupt leadership all the way up to the EU, and there's a medical crisis ongoing, but you can only extend and pretend for so long. The internal divisions are ripping this place apart, even if the media doesn't present that narrative.

It's gonna end badly here. I'd look for the Euro to fall a bit in the near term.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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bernorange

bernorange 8359

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9 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

... If you've been to Italy, you've probably noticed there are a whole lot of EU flags hanging off buildings. I kind of understand the feeling, it's a kind of inferiority, a kind of hope you get from being part of something bigger.  ...

SEC! SEC! SEC! - aggy

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is ready to do more to help a U.S. economy ground to a sudden halt as businesses shutter and people stay home to slow the coronavirus pandemic, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday.

“The Federal Reserve is prepared to do whatever it takes within our powers to ensure that we are part of the solution of shoring up people over the virus, shoring up the American economy and putting us in the best position to grow again once the virus recedes,” Daly said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “If we do the right thing and shelter in place and curb the spread of the virus, the economy will be in the best position to bounce back.”

With the coronavirus infecting tens of thousands of Americans and killing hundreds each day, three-quarters of the U.S. population are under orders to stay home except for essential trips to slow the spread of the virus.

With businesses laying off millions of workers as demand dries up and states ordering non-essential businesses to close, the economy is likely already in recession, Daly said.

The Fed’s job, along with that of the U.S. government that on Friday finalized a $2.2 trillion rescue package, is to provide the support to financial markets, businesses and people who are doing their duty to boost the public health, Daly said. Once the pandemic threat has passed, the Fed’s programs and low interest rates will help drive the economic recovery, she said.

“The virus and its evolution will determine both the magnitude of the downturn and its duration,” Daly said, adding that Fed staff are working to manage programs already underway and stand up new ones, including the to-be-launched Main Street Lending Facility. “The virus will also determine the amount of action we have to take. These are unprecedented times and they call for unprecedented action.”

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-daly-idUSKBN21I2Y6?taid=5e8386f153c773000108cf0f&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Uhhh... since when is that the Fed's job?

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1648

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I think we are very likely to see another low that matches the one from a few weeks ago, and I think when the real market recovery comes, some stocks will not rebound quite as fast as the market in general, but I decided after looking at it closely that the prices are so low on a lot of solid companies that it was the right time for me to buy back in. It may not be the bottom-bottom, but I think it's low enough.  

This morning I bought about 20 stocks...across a bunch of different sectors.  I was looking for larger companies that were relatively stable for the past 2 years before the crash and who's stock price is now at least 40% off the 52 week high.   If they pay dividends, all the better.      DOW, PRU, BUD, QSR, were some.    If, in 1 year from today, these stocks get back to 65% of their 52 week high, I'll have a great year.  If they get back to 85% of their high, I'll make a fuck ton of money.  I had to resist going any bigger on oil stocks.   

The one that felt like I was putting chips on '00' on a roulette wheel was RUTH.  76% off it's 52 week high. The threshold to make money is so low. Nobody is eating out for the next 3 months, but as long as they stay a float, people will get back to normal.  

The hard part is now keeping my hands off.  Back to the long game.

Note - Not advice. What's right for me may not be right for you. See your proctologist for actual advice. 

   

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3335

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4 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Are you still in the SOXS that you bought at $29?

$29.70 and, yes, am still in it from March 23.  I’ve never held a 3x ETF for more than 48 hrs., so I’m in uncharted territory....but aren’t we all.  Desperate times, desperate measures, etc.  The share price dropped quickly and I refused to take the loss because I’ was confident the market would get hammered with bad news in April. Still believe that will happen and the market will retest the lows from the earlier plummet.  While holding that March 23 position, I decided to start trading SOXS with additional capital.  Plan to trade SOXS on the way back to $30 and feel solid about making money with the position purchased at $29.70.  What has pissed me off more than anything is tying up capital in last week’s trade and being unable to use that money trading the market for over a week

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

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7 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

I’ve never held a 3x ETF for more than 48 hrs., so I’m in uncharted territory....

Not so csb, but back around summer 2011 the market took a shit because Greek debt was going to end the world for the 10th time in the last two years so I planned to flip some $TNA on a quick bounce.  Problem is I "fat fingered" the number of shares to buy by a factor of 10x.  The ETF absolutely nosedived right after the buy went through so I was stuck.  Held on to it for over a year and pulled off a 25% gain.

No way I would do that with a short leveraged ETF though.

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