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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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B00M

B00M 6463

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Loco said:

I'd love to see that chart...  I've had brkb forever...  always seemed to closely match S&P over any significant period of time.  Sure they could be up vs SPY for a month or so, then the opposite.  I am not an active investor so I didn't follow it closer than ever 6 months or so I'd see how things are going.  I know I was hoping brkb would pop comming out of 2008 but it didn't seem to happen to a greater extent than the market.  The bigger they are the harder it is to beat the market by any meaningful %

saupload_brka-480x288.jpg

So effectively an index fund with no management fees? How would $10k grow in BRKB vs $10k in SPY? Struggling to find a legit comparison chart on my phone. Thanks in advance

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5586

Posted
Posted

 

1 hour ago, B00M said:

So effectively an index fund with no management fees? How would $10k grow in BRKB vs $10k in SPY? Struggling to find a legit comparison chart on my phone. Thanks in advance

26 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

What period(s) are you interested in?

Here are the 1 year & 5 year comparison

1-year-SPY-v-BRK-B

 

5-year-SPY-v-BRK-B

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12061

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Parliament said:

Are we gonna be up or down tonight?  Will the collapse of Saudi/Russian oil price fi...supply talks send equities down?

 

10 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Yes

 

5 minutes ago, Shaggy3.0 said:

I’m up and down on south austin’s mom every night.

 

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52-80

52-80 19246

Posted
Posted

what are yalls take on forex?  the dollars been going quite strong, and i dont know if itll reverse that trend soon?  ive got some dineroos in other currencies that arent doing much good.  thinking of it swapping it back into USD and plowing more into the US stonk market

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Blotto

Blotto 23575

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9 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

what are yalls take on forex?  the dollars been going quite strong, and i dont know if itll reverse that trend soon?  ive got some dineroos in other currencies that arent doing much good.  thinking of it swapping it back into USD and plowing more into the US stonk market

I know jack shit about it, but was looking a into it some last week. All trades on FOREX are currency pairs, as the relative value of one currency must be gauged against another currency. The most heavily traded currency pair is the EUR/USD, which was the basis for my investigation as I think the 'rona may disproportionately strain the EU economically. But then I stumbled onto the fact that you can buy currency ETFs that mimic the same trades and make things easier (no need to setup forex account), but introduces the cost of management fees. I ultimately got sidetracked and still need to read up more on the pros/cons of these ETFs. 

https://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/currency/

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10527

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20 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I know jack shit about it, but was looking a into it some last week. All trades on FOREX are currency pairs, as the relative value of one currency must be gauged against another currency. The most heavily traded currency pair is the EUR/USD, which was the basis for my investigation as I think the 'rona may disproportionately strain the EU economically. But then I stumbled onto the fact that you can buy currency ETFs that mimic the same trades and make things easier (no need to setup forex account), but introduces the cost of management fees. I ultimately got sidetracked and still need to read up more on the pros/cons of these ETFs. 

https://etfdb.com/etfdb-category/currency/

You need to learn about contango. It’s a real problem with all futures-based ETFs. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23575

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25 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

You need to learn about contango. It’s a real problem with all futures-based ETFs. 

Im aware of contango, and don't hold futures based ETFs for that reason. I do however entertain options on these ETFs for an occasional gamble here and there.  I did just that with USO Jan 22 leaps recently. Unfortunately, I just realized after looking at daily volumes for most of these currency ETF options that liquidity would be a real issue. Probably better off figuring out the Forex thing if I ultimately want to speculate. 

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Lurch

Lurch 5931

Posted
Posted

As soon as someone can show a peak has passed in NY, there’s going to be a huge bounce. I think containment has worked, though we’ll still see catastrophic death tolls for another few months as this runs its course. The 100-200k toll seems likely and, yes, probably priced in by end of last week

Will the market go much lower in the 1-2 weeks before then? I’m running out of “new” bad news to drive it any lower than the unemployment slap already did. That will of course get worse over the next 6-8 weeks but we will become numb to it quickly, as we see new virus cases flatten and begin to assume most will return to their job shortly. Maybe a domestic travel ban would crush the markets, but then again the airlines are already fucked, so perhaps it would do nothing.

We’re down 30-35% from market highs, so to the extent we were due for a correction, that’s been thoroughly executed. Avg bear market, in full, is around that mark.

All that said, I’d guess we bottom with a few more of these “regular” 1-2% declines this week, probably not matching those mid-March lows.

I’m thinking buy late this week or early next, expect a 10% bump within 2-3 weeks when NY shows something for us to feel like we see a light at the end of the tunnel, then a slow ride another 10% up through election as unemployment slowly recovers. There will be downturns as each subsequent big city gets hits, but the markets will not give them the weight of NY’s impact.

This was a reality check for sure, but not as dire for the economy as it initially looked to me. I don’t think we’ll see those highs again for several years, but we will get there in time. This didn’t break too much long term other than businesses already in trouble.

I’m currently 90/10 sidelines/S&P. I’m thinking I’ll go 50/50 Thurs so it executes before the weekend.

/$9.95

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5586

Posted
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5 hours ago, Parliament said:

Are we gonna be up or down tonight?  Will the collapse of Saudi/Russian oil price fi...supply talks send equities down?

just remember 2 things that I've found to be true the last week or so

a) all news, especially bad, is already priced into the market
ii) the futures market is not an indicator of what will happen in the market when it opens

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hornbri

hornbri 1407

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14 minutes ago, Lurch said:

As soon as someone can show a peak has passed in NY, there’s going to be a huge bounce. 

I think that is part of the small bounce we are seeing in the futures tonight. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-05/new-york-reports-first-decline-in-daily-coronavirus-deaths

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Lurch

Lurch 5931

Posted
Posted

What would the market do if Boris Johnson died? Seems like the hard core deniers are the sort that would have an affinity towards him. Major world leader dying: clearly bad. Deniers seeing one of their own go down, pushing them to reconsider reality: maybe good?

That’s one bit of news I had not factored in. I’d guess Trump is in a bubble by now, but if he got it, the market would certainly tank.

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Lurch

Lurch 5931

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Posted
Thing is, this is nothing like an average bear market.


No, agree. Simply saying if this virus never came along, we could have expected the next eventual bear to occur to about this extent. The question is, did we just fast forward to and through that bear, or is it still yet to come in combination with the virus-driven disruption.
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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3504

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4 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Let's just cut the bullshit and drop to 2100 so we can all push our chips in and ride this fucker to 2800.   

I'm bracing for 1800.

However, already nibbling on some positions; Probably go in harder at 2100ish; can't time the bottom.

 

 

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52-80

52-80 19246

Posted
Posted

The news is already trickling in about deaths and infections flattening out in different parts of the world.

 

I think the big pain and volatility is mostly over.  It'll probably continue to slide further as major earnings report release in 2 weeks.  That's around the floor of prior recessions (40ish depending on how you average ?)

 

Question is how quickly the market can climb out.  But I think I'll put the remaining 50% of my stash back in at that point since it'll do no worse than stay flat.

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bernorange

bernorange 8363

Posted
Posted

Jamie Dimon, letter to shareholders:

Quote

... we don't know exactly what the future will hold – but at a minimum, we assume that it will include a bad recession combined with some kind of financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008. ...

https://reports.jpmorganchase.com/investor-relations/2019/ar-ceo-letters.htm

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