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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Grade of D as in David

Grade of D as in David 13253

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Let's see how the market reacts to the British PM being in intensive care (I know, it's already price in the market)

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-52192604

The market loves it apparently. CNBC reported it about an hour ago when the Dow was at 22,323.  It closed at 22,679.

 

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54340

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, B00M said:

This. FOMO is real and annoying as fuck. I'm only 16.5% back in... At this rate, I'll get several years of mostly Treasury bonds and CDs and shit lol

Like I said last week, my only long equity position is Zoom...and ZM was down 4% today.  FML.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5571

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

You apparently didn’t see it surged about 300 points higher even after that news broke 

 

Just now, Grade of D as in David said:

The market loves it apparently. CNBC reported it about an hour ago when the Dow was at 22,323.  It closed at 22,679.

 

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

see what happens when you have to actually do some work

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Captainant

Captainant 27718

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Not sure why the market optimism.  Today is shaping up to be horrible on the virus front and the economy is shut down hard for the foreseeable future.  Traffic has gone to shit in the few retail chains still open.

REIT's are about to take a deep dickin' with the mortgage payment deferrals. Not to mention the collapse of retail for the next quarter (at least), which is a big hunk of REIT money as well. 

No idea why the market is rallying. Hookers and blow must be back on the menu

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

1000 point days are the new normal, didn't you get the memo?
 

It is known, that's why I guessed at least 10 more.  Normally you may get 1 a decade.  Of course 1000 points percentage wise is not what it used to be.  But we still have not seen any of them since 2008.  Pretty incredible after that run we're talking about 10 more in the next couple months...and for 2020 we have already had 15 of em.  Fucking madness.

 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
15 if you count plus and minus 1000 days...
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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10520

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, McCroskey said:

Portnoy apparently being fucking destoyed by BA again today.   Anyone know what he did to deserve it this time?   I heard he lost over a million last week on it and now today has lost over 500k?  His twitter feed near the close is entertaining, he just took out the camera.

I’ve been watching some. It’s pretty entertaining quarantine viewing. He is so clueless. He was essentially flat going into today before he shorted 40k shares of Boeing in the mid 130’s and I love it. He might be one of the biggest assholes I’ve ever run across. 

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52-80

52-80 19214

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

The market loves it apparently. CNBC reported it about an hour ago when the Dow was at 22,323.  It closed at 22,679.

 

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Does the market love anacott steel?

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I’ve been watching some. It’s pretty entertaining quarantine viewing. He is so clueless. He was essentially flat going into today before he shorted 40k shares of Boeing in the mid 130’s and I love it. He might be one of the biggest assholes I’ve ever run across. 

Karma landing some haymakers on that smug fuck.  Love seeing it. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5571

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

It is known, that's why I guessed at least 10 more.  Normally you may get 1 a decade.  Of course 1000 points percentage wise is not what it used to be.  But we still have not seen any of them since 2008.  Pretty incredible after that run we're talking about 10 more in the next couple months...and for 2020 we have already had 8 of em.  Fucking madness.

And that doesn't even take into account the intraday swings - my quick look is that since Monday 2/24/20 (31 trading days) the Dow has moved 1,000 points on 18 days, and S&P 500 has moved 100 points on 20 days.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Captainant said:

REIT's are about to take a deep dickin' with the mortgage payment deferrals. Not to mention the collapse of retail for the next quarter (at least), which is a big hunk of REIT money as well. 

No idea why the market is rallying. Hookers and blow must be back on the menu

Not to mention when you open back up after the stay at home orders you can only do so with limited capacity in restaurants / retail.  Sectors that are already on thin margins will make the smart decision and not even open back up.  The unemployment numbers are going to look like shit for a LONG time. 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14600

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Not to mention when you open back up after the stay at home orders you can only do so with limited capacity in restaurants / retail.  Sectors that are already on thin margins will make the smart decision and not even open back up.  The unemployment numbers are going to look like shit for a LONG time. 

Yeah, people are really over estimating what "re-open" looks like.  You'll have restaurants with every other table blocked off.  That's not even close to breaking even and we're a long way from that.

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 18022

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

The market loves it apparently. CNBC reported it about an hour ago when the Dow was at 22,323.  It closed at 22,679.

 

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

If Trump kicked it, the Dow would hit 30K that day. Take out the biggest hindrance to the economy and watch out.

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

How many more 1000 point days do we have before this stabilizes?  I'm guessing at least 10.  This shit is not coming out with a V recovery.  Hell no. 

 

50 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Not sure why the market optimism.  Today is shaping up to be horrible on the virus front and the economy is shut down hard for the foreseeable future.  Traffic has gone to shit in the few retail chains still open.

 

42 minutes ago, Captainant said:

REIT's are about to take a deep dickin' with the mortgage payment deferrals. Not to mention the collapse of retail for the next quarter (at least), which is a big hunk of REIT money as well. 

No idea why the market is rallying. Hookers and blow must be back on the menu

I think this is a big part of it. From a funny trader/blogger on Twitter. 

https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/04/06/important-alert-treasury-coopted-fed/

News broke late this afternoon that the Fed would buy small business loans from banks. In other words, the treasury isn’t taking on debt for these bailouts, but instead making the Fed Brrrrrr with their printing presses and do the work for them. Also, late in the day, the mortgage services were pressing lawmakers to have the Fed fund them in order to service bond holders. See, people aren’t paying their mortgages, so instead of depending on the actual tenants to pay them — they want the Fed to give them the money. AND THEY WILL GET IT!

Why is this important? Because the treasury isn’t borrowing money to fund these facilities and instead using Fed funny money to do it — super inflationary. If this trend continues, the Fed will be the new defacto treasury, financing all of the governments projects with UNLIMITED printing press dollars. There has never been a more bullish case for gold. The Dow lifted 1,640, Nasdaq more than 500. I closed out all of my shorts and went long with 95% of my account — caught upside in most of my intraday longs and will likely be selling them all very soon.

Stop complaining about how rigged everything is and blaming others for your fuckups. It is what it is — play the game and try to limit the losses while maximizing the gains. No one said this was an easy racket.

 

Also, Portnoy got margin called and lost total of 1.8Mil today. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12025

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

If I had balls, I'd get back in these for tomorrow, because I'm about 99% sure today is gonna reverse.

I took the plunge with a prettty small bet as I’ve never done it.

Acutally found out that Vanguard doesn’t allow you to buy a leveraged fund so I had to play with some of my hsa money.

 

Wish me luck?

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1651

Posted
Posted

I've been heads down in work all day and just saw the market.   What in the Wide World of Sports is going on here?   Why?  How?   I don't understand it, but hell yes.

I went all-in last Tuesday to make sure I hit _a_ low...not necessary the lowest low, just a low.  I really thought it would be 2 more months of mostly declines down below 18,000 as the death toll grew...and it still might be, but damn that went up fast.  DJIA up 7.73%  Oil stocks up 15%  wow.    Best market advice I was given seems to be "don't be to greedy"  

 

 

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Captainant

Captainant 27718

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

How would mortgage deferral screw REITs?  Don't they just collect rent?  Could REITs benefit from mortgage deferral on their mortgages, or do they all own title to their properties?

REIT's must receive 75% of their gross income from real property rent, interest from mortgages on real properties, and/or sale of real properties. There's a few different types of REIT's out there, but most have a big chunk comprising mortgage interest income.

If mortgage payments are deferred, so is the interest income.

You know how pretty much every mortgage is chopped and screwed and bundled and sold to investors and institutions? The most common instrument to access that market is a REIT (at least to my knowledge, if I'm wrong please tell me lol)

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, Captainant said:

REIT's must receive 75% of their gross income from real property rent, interest from mortgages on real properties, and/or sale of real properties. There's a few different types of REIT's out there, but most have a big chunk comprising mortgage interest income.

If mortgage payments are deferred, so is the interest income.

You know how pretty much every mortgage is chopped and screwed and bundled and sold to investors and institutions? The most common instrument to access that market is a REIT (at least to my knowledge, if I'm wrong please tell me lol)

I'm no expert, and wasn't even aware of mREITs.   From what I gather they are less common than equity REITs (rent collectors) and MBS (non-REIT mortgage collectors)

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5328

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Half position in the widow maker $SOXS at 13.52.

Lol I bought HIBS, SOXS, and SMDD today with my play money account.

 

I figure if it goes down in flames I deserve it, if not I have something to console myself as the world burns.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49327

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Here’s a compilation of Portnoy melting down. Really sad honestly. I know he’s pretty wealthy, but he could easily zero out his liquidity if he doesn’t stop soon. Total degenerate.

 

Has to write a check for $1.25mill to e-trade because of Boeing.... what's this guy worth anyway??

 

Would be funny if this was all just a big hoax... lots of websites to practice day-trading on before ever investing. 😄

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McCroskey

McCroskey 1505

Posted
Posted
I think this is a big part of it. From a funny trader/blogger on Twitter. 

https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2020/04/06/important-alert-treasury-coopted-fed/

News broke late this afternoon that the Fed would buy small business loans from banks. In other words, the treasury isn’t taking on debt for these bailouts, but instead making the Fed Brrrrrr with their printing presses and do the work for them. Also, late in the day, the mortgage services were pressing lawmakers to have the Fed fund them in order to service bond holders. See, people aren’t paying their mortgages, so instead of depending on the actual tenants to pay them — they want the Fed to give them the money. AND THEY WILL GET IT!

Why is this important? Because the treasury isn’t borrowing money to fund these facilities and instead using Fed funny money to do it — super inflationary. If this trend continues, the Fed will be the new defacto treasury, financing all of the governments projects with UNLIMITED printing press dollars. There has never been a more bullish case for gold. The Dow lifted 1,640, Nasdaq more than 500. I closed out all of my shorts and went long with 95% of my account — caught upside in most of my intraday longs and will likely be selling them all very soon.

Stop complaining about how rigged everything is and blaming others for your fuckups. It is what it is — play the game and try to limit the losses while maximizing the gains. No one said this was an easy racket.

 

Also, Portnoy got margin called and lost total of 1.8Mil today. 

I saw this on twitter too. Can one of you fine gentleman explain in basic layman terms to idiots like me who don’t understand this language? I’m not afraid to admit it.

I know Portnoy funded $5MM in his account but I don’t understand the rest.

47c2b09ac6d749938636dd6fbd03e8de.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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52-80

52-80 19214

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, McCroskey said:


I saw this on twitter too. Can one of you fine gentleman explain in basic layman terms to idiots like me who don’t understand this language? I’m not afraid to admit it.

I know Portnoy funded $5MM in his account but I don’t understand the rest.

47c2b09ac6d749938636dd6fbd03e8de.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He was borrowing shares from his broker to short-sell.  This is when you sell something you don't have, at today's prices, so that later you can buy it for cheaper and give back the borrowed shares.

He was betting on Boeing getting cheaper from today's price at 129.  When the prices starting going up instead, his bet was looking worse and worse.  At that point the broker gets worried and demanded money -- e.g. forcing him to sell his other shares. 

 

That's a margin call because the original borrowing he did was done on "margin" , a short term loan

 

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4638

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Not to mention when you open back up after the stay at home orders you can only do so with limited capacity in restaurants / retail.  Sectors that are already on thin margins will make the smart decision and not even open back up.  The unemployment numbers are going to look like shit for a LONG time. 

So...maybe a +1500 day?   

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52-80

52-80 19214

Posted
Posted
Quote

While stocks plummeted into a bear market at the fastest pace ever last month, millennials were losing their cool.

 
 

For the first time ever, a measure of stock-market exposure for millennials who use TD Ameritrade dropped below the average for clients of all ages in March. That shift came as the firm’s Investor Movement Index, which has tracked clients’ positioning since 2010, fell to a seven-year low, the Omaha, Nebraska-based brokerage said Monday.

 
 

“That has to do with living through a crisis as an adult -- for many of them it’s their first time,” said JJ Kinahan, the chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Every generation has that sort of moment where it’s like, ‘Wow.’”

 

that's a buy signal, boys

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12025

Posted
Posted

I think there's a lot of upward pressure on the market right now

1.) People want it to go up. 

2.) We have 2 trillion in stimulus that hasn't really even rolled out

3.) The Fed is the treasury now. They're not even pretending. They are willing to print $ and guarantee pretty much any financial instrument right now (it seems) to ensure the stock market recovers quickly. 

4.) The Saudis and Russians are talking / are expected to make a deal

5.) Phase 4 stimulus and Phase 5, 6, 7, etc will just keep coming until we are back to normal

6.) Flattening the curve in Europe and Asia

7.) Optimism that the US is flattening the curve, testing is increasing apparently, and that we're talking about going back to work.

8.) Hydroxychloroquine

9.) We've become desensitized to the body count and a lot of Americans aren't 'seeing' the deaths.

10.) We haven't seen the #'s. As in, we don't know what the true economic impact is yet. When earnings are released we'll have an idea.

 

Now, if some of these don't pan out or if there's another curveball then we can go back down.

 

I have to say, though, that I'm incredibly impressed how much investors are willing to jump back in. 

I guess I'm going to lose some $ as the market explodes is back over the summer

V shaped recovery it is.

Oh well, wish I had invested some $ 2 weeks ago... last week... last Friday.

Guess I missed out.

 

 

 

 

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10520

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Portnoy’s day trading is a publicity stunt.

 

10 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Bingo

I don’t think so. He shows his trading screen and it verifies his positions.

As for the margin calls. He didn’t get one because of losses but because he held the position overnight which requires 50% equity . Day trades only require 25%. 
 

Edit. Boeing is up another 12 points pre-market. Lulz. 

Edited by TonyTexas
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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3268

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

I think there's a lot of upward pressure on the market right now

1.) People want it to go up. 

2.) We have 2 trillion in stimulus that hasn't really even rolled out

3.) The Fed is the treasury now. They're not even pretending. They are willing to print $ and guarantee pretty much any financial instrument right now (it seems) to ensure the stock market recovers quickly. 

4.) The Saudis and Russians are talking / are expected to make a deal

5.) Phase 4 stimulus and Phase 5, 6, 7, etc will just keep coming until we are back to normal

6.) Flattening the curve in Europe and Asia

7.) Optimism that the US is flattening the curve, testing is increasing apparently, and that we're talking about going back to work.

8.) Hydroxychloroquine

9.) We've become desensitized to the body count and a lot of Americans aren't 'seeing' the deaths.

10.) We haven't seen the #'s. As in, we don't know what the true economic impact is yet. When earnings are released we'll have an idea.

 

Now, if some of these don't pan out or if there's another curveball then we can go back down.

 

I have to say, though, that I'm incredibly impressed how much investors are willing to jump back in. 

I guess I'm going to lose some $ as the market explodes is back over the summer

V shaped recovery it is.

Oh well, wish I had invested some $ 2 weeks ago... last week... last Friday.

Guess I missed out.

 

 

 

 

Always easy to jump out of the market when you are market timing.  Not so easy to know when to jump back in.  

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