Markets still falling like whoa

[Dnaguy 12,001]

10 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Trying to coax another bull market is the epitome of political in an election year.

This is kind of where I was coming from.

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

12 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Trying to coax another bull market is the epitome of political in an election year.

Meh.  Maybe.  But having some peripheral connections to some pretty powerful people at the fed - they’re not fans at all of what the president has done in terms of trying to manipulate them.  I just don’t see that group throwing Trump a bone...especially as a group and they vote on all this as a group. 
 

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

10 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

All that money we made to prop up the market is as useless as Oklahoma. We did it!

Oklahoma kept much of America entertained during this new era of no sports.  That’s more useful than useless money.  Fucking fed.  

[hornbri 1,400]

I don't know why anyone is surprised at this point that the FED is going to keep pumping the market. They keep saying they are going to do it, and they are in fact doing it. Really not a good reason to bet against them continuing. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

Just now, hornbri said:

I don't know why anyone is surprised at this point that the FED is going to keep pumping the market. They keep saying they are going to do it, and they are in fact doing it. Really not a good reason to bet against them continuing. 

Saying they’re going to keep doing it doesn’t account for how they do it.  So if they drop 100 trillion tomorrow do you just say, ‘well, why didn’t you all see this coming?’   

[bluto 4,932]

What are the repercussions of Fed money dump trucks? Somebody has to pay the piper at some point right? Or nah?

[Incredulity 11,675]

Just now, bluto said:

What are the repercussions of Fed money dump trucks? Somebody has to pay the piper at some point right? Or nah?

Do you believe MMT? Or nah?

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

Just now, bluto said:

What are the repercussions of Fed money dump trucks? Somebody has to pay the piper at some point right? Or nah?

The dollar is the best of a shitty bunch (Globally) is my rationale for them getting away with a lot of games but even I’m a skeptic at this point.  Inflation has to come in a big way.  But wtf do I know.  No rules in this new era.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19,206]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Meh.  Maybe.  But having some peripheral connections to some pretty powerful people at the fed - they’re not fans at all of what the president has done in terms of trying to manipulate them.  I just don’t see that group throwing Trump a bone...especially as a group and they vote on all this as a group. 
 

Haven't seen them do anything to stop him.  Kind of like everyone else in any position of influence the last 3.5 years.

[Captainant 27,680]

Someone tell me how the fed BRRRRRRR-ing another couple trillion isn't setting us up for some really bad stagflation. Employment isn't gonna just bounce back, and each dollar is worth less with the more that's injected into the market. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

Just now, Fudge Nuggets said:

Haven't seen them do anything to stop him.  Kind of like everyone else in any position of influence the last 3.5 years.

I don’t see how they can stop him.  What do they do?  Punish him with shitty fiscal policy?  They kept steady on rates several times when he wanted them at zero.  It’s not like they went with what he wanted.  Now it may look like that but the big picture shows they have been fairly independent.  

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Someone tell me how the fed BRRRRRRR-ing another couple trillion isn't setting us up for some really bad stagflation. Employment isn't gonna just bounce back, and each dollar is worth less with the more that's injected into the market. 

This is what the last 20 posts are about, my dude.  We are all in wtf mode.  

[Captainant 27,680]

As a followup - the extra 2 trillion was surprisingly enough to cover up the additional 6.6 million NEW unemployment claims. More than 17 million new claims over the last month now.

Someone explain to this dum dum how stagflation isn't coming.

[Beau Vine 54,254]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

At what point should we care about inflation?

The 10-year Treasury is still under 1%, so definitely not yet.

Edit: OK, having said that, this is the most expensive house of cards I've ever seen, so maybe we do have massive inflation.

Edited April 9, 2020 by Beau Vine

[Auto Driller 2,506]

Apparently we just have to announce $2T of new money about twice a month and we can keep this thing going to the moon! DOW 50,000 here we come!!

[bernorange 8,362]

i posted this in another thread, but seems apropos here given the discussion of the last page or so:

Quote

As investors rush to cash during these very uncertain times, Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio reminded everyone during his Reddit Ask Me Anything event Tuesday that cash is still “trash” relative to assets like gold.

One of the more popular questions the founder of Bridgewater Associates was asked Tuesday was this one — “A few months ago you said cash is trash. But now cash is king. What gives?”

Dalio was very happy to clarify his answer, noting that his opinion has not changed even after the COVID-19 outbreak hit the financial markets hard all across the board.

“When the virus hit and it had its negative impact on earnings and balance sheets, asset values plummeted which made cash look comparatively attractive. However, what did the central banks do? They created a ton more cash,” he said.

“When you think about what assets are safe to own, and you think of cash, please remember that while it doesn't move around in value as much as other assets, there is a costly negative return to it in relation to goods and services and other financial assets that amounts to about a couple of percent a year, which adds up,” he continued.

Dalio sees value in assets like gold and stocks: “I still think that cash is trash relative to other alternatives, particularly those that will retain their value or increase their value during reflationary periods (e.g., some gold and some stocks),” he said.

The U.S. dollar is regarded as the world’s reserve currency, which is why the U.S. government is able to provide money and credit, Dalio explained when answering a question about the current market environment.

“While the U.S. accounts for about 20% of the world economy, the U.S. dollar accounts for about 70% of the world's buying, selling, borrowing, and lending … I believe that increasingly there will be questions by bondholders who are receiving negative real and nominal interest rates while there is a lot of printing of money about whether the debt assets they are holding are good storeholds of wealth. I believe that cash, which is non-interest-bearing money, will not be the safest asset to hold,” he said.

The COVID-19 crisis has been boosting the U.S. dollar as “the world desperately needs dollars,” Dalio added, noting that this renewed greenback strength will not last.

“Having the world's printing press to produce the world's currency is the equivalent of having the world's most important asset, especially in times when so many people need the world's money. So, we are now having a short squeeze on the dollar,” he said. “Eventually, that will end because either that shortage of dollars will be satisfied by enough creation of dollars or it won't be satisfied in which case there will be debt defaults and restructurings that will reduce the need for dollars. When that happens, the dollar will weaken. It will also weaken when those who are holding dollar-denominated debt no longer want to hold that debt because interest rates are inadequate and so much dollar-denominated debt and money is being created that its value is undermined.”
...

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-04-08/-Cash-is-king-Ray-Dalio-doubles-down-on-cash-is-trash-relative-to-gold-during-Reddit-AMA.html

We are in the eye of a hurricane and the consequences of money printers going brrr won't be realized until we hit the back wall of the storm.

[Captainant 27,680]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-announces-new-lending-plans-it-says-will-provide-23-trillion-in-support-for-economy-2020-04-09

Reading through what's being offered... I don't think these are going to be good long-term decisions for the country's finances. 

The plan is to offer 4 -year loans to companies, with principal and interest payments deferred for one year. The loans will be originated by banks, who will retain a 5% share and sell the rest to the Fed’s facility.

So all these businesses that were barely scraping along in a bull market can now pile on more debt in the middle of a recession, the banks get a nice 5% slice, and the fed eats the rest of the shit sandwich. I really don't think most those loans are gonna be paid back. There's just not gonna be enough (additional) money circulating to meet the obligation since the money hose has been pointed at institutional investors instead of consumers

EDIT: And the fed is also going to be buying commercial mortgage backed securities. At a time when brick and mortar real estate is dead, and those businesses will take years to recover. They're only buying "highly rated" new issues, but we've seen the ratings agencies engage in fraud just over a decade ago, so I'm not feeling super hot about any of this lol

Edited April 9, 2020 by Captainant

[stone oak 639]

Quote

As investors rush to cash during these very uncertain times, Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio

[bullzak 422]

Velocity of money was at a historic low as of February by orders of magnitude. Going to be even lower now. Inflation isn't the immediate problem. 

Fed/Treasury/Congress going to bridge the 20%+ GDP bite with debt. There will be significant strings attached re: stock buybacks. Dividends will be slashed. That caps values in at least intermediate term. 

We may indeed see a retest. The economy is a mess. But you have never ever seen this kind of stimulus this fast and it may signal this time is different, at least with respect to how close we get to the retest. 

I see a lot of waiting for the bottom talk. Good luck with market timing. Never known anyone who could do it. 

Now, if you get a medical solution where people aren't dying all bets are off. That is a non zero possibility. 

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

Update on my unique nose for losing propositions (I am becoming a great contrarian indicator):

 

Bought DUG this morning at 60.

 Bought more SOXS at 11.

 

 Waiting for profit.

[Captainant 27,680]

3 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Now, if you get a medical solution where people aren't dying all bets are off. That is a non zero possibility. 

 

[Anastasis 23,475]

So how many trillion have we pumped into this thing so far?

[Incredulity 11,675]

Powell addressing this topic right now on CNBC

 

”inflation not a first order concern, in fact the opposite”

Edited April 9, 2020 by Incredulity

[Captainant 27,680]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

Powell addressing this topic right now on CNBC

Good call, didn't realize they were already hitting the TV circuits on this. Here's a YT stream as well

 

[babysdaddy 2,725]

4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Powell addressing this topic right now on CNBC

 

”inflation not a first order concern, in fact the opposite”

I think most people here gets this but everything the Fed, Treasury and Congress are doing is to avoid deflation.  Every economist at these institutions studied the Great Depression and know the way they were taught to avoid another one is massive liquidity injection.  We have no idea what is going to happen next so anyone citing the financial crisis, or LTCM or 1987 or pick a market upheaval is trying to re-frame this current crisis to fit their understanding.  But you should all have some gold in your portfolio.  5-10%.  Not bitcoin, not shitcoin, but gold.  Physical gold is for the world ending but other securities can work in portfolio construction.  I'll preemptively thank bern for the rep for gold talk 

[stone oak 639]

14 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

So how many trillion have we pumped into this thing so far?

[workswithseed 2,112]

Whoever said they bought STWD, well thanks for the tip. 

Yeah I just bought some silver cause damn this be crazy.

[Incredulity 11,675]

Best part of that Powell interview is it shut Cramer up for 20 min or so. Really tired of that guys act.

 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,206]

22 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

 Bought more SOXS at 11.

 

 Waiting for profit.

I assume you are rounding down since the low was 11.40.

[52-80 19,163]

Wellllll the feds start pumping
And they don't stop pumpin
Fed to the market and they get the mint pressing
Didn't make sense
Not to loan for fun
Your brain gets smart but your head gets dumb

[Trey3216 15,347]

38 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I think most people here gets this but everything the Fed, Treasury and Congress are doing is to avoid deflation.  Every economist at these institutions studied the Great Depression and know the way they were taught to avoid another one is massive liquidity injection.  We have no idea what is going to happen next so anyone citing the financial crisis, or LTCM or 1987 or pick a market upheaval is trying to re-frame this current crisis to fit their understanding.  But you should all have some gold in your portfolio.  5-10%.  Not bitcoin, not shitcoin, but gold.  Physical gold is for the world ending but other securities can work in portfolio construction.  I'll preemptively thank bern for the rep for gold talk 

 

53 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Velocity of money was at a historic low as of February by orders of magnitude. Going to be even lower now. Inflation isn't the immediate problem. 

Fed/Treasury/Congress going to bridge the 20%+ GDP bite with debt. There will be significant strings attached re: stock buybacks. Dividends will be slashed. That caps values in at least intermediate term. 

We may indeed see a retest. The economy is a mess. But you have never ever seen this kind of stimulus this fast and it may signal this time is different, at least with respect to how close we get to the retest. 

I see a lot of waiting for the bottom talk. Good luck with market timing. Never known anyone who could do it. 

Now, if you get a medical solution where people aren't dying all bets are off. That is a non zero possibility. 

Pretty much what I was saying earlier 

[RexWilson 1,348]

21 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Wellllll the feds start pumping
And they don't stop pumpin
Fed to the market and they get the mint pressing
Didn't make sense
Not to loan for fun
Your brain gets smart but your head gets dumb

Hey now, you're a stock star

Get your gains on, get paid

[52-80 19,163]

we're 1 or 2 days away from initial big selloff point.  no idea whether this is a faux recovery and i should cash in the gains from this period, or fully commit to the market with the remaining sideline cash before losing.

 

united, jpm, and j&j, and some other big bois report their earnings on tuesday

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

15 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

we're 1 or 2 days away from initial big selloff point.  no idea whether this is a faux recovery and i should cash in the gains from this period, or fully commit to the market with the remaining sideline cash before losing.

 

united, jpm, and j&j, and some other big bois report their earnings on tuesday

I've been saying 1 or 2 days away from that big sell off for over a week now.  I hope you're right.  Still lots of cash to deploy and these levels make no sense.  But sense has nothing to do with any of this.  

Edited April 9, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[TonyTexas 10,516]

Fertitta resorting to loan sharks 

Tilman Fertitta, the billionaire owner of Landry’s Inc., one of the country’s most prominent full-service restaurant groups, is floating some bold measures to keep his entertainment empire afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Bloomberg, which cites people with knowledge of the matter, Fertitta, who also directs Golden Nugget casinos and owns the NBA franchise Houston Rockets, is looking to raise more debt and is offering potential lenders an interest rate of 15 percent to participate in a new $250 million loan.

The loan, which matures in October 2023 and is being arranged by Jefferies Financial Group Inc., per Bloomberg, is one of several steps Fertitta is taking to shore up liquidity. Landry’s announced in mid-march it furloughed 40,000 employees, or 70 percent of the company’s workforce. This as restaurants—a vast portfolio that includes Saltgrass Steak House, Bubba Gump Shrimp Co., Claim Jumper, Morton’s The Steakhouse, McCormick & Schmick’s, Mastro’s Restaurants, and Rainforest Café, among many others—were bringing in just 4–5 percent of normal sales on takeout-only models during the early days of COVID-19. All the casinos shut down as the company was burning $1 million a day.

Landry’s has already drawn $300 million of existing credit lines in full. Bloomberg added Fertitta himself is injecting $50 million of his own cash into the business, according to a source.

Based on initial discussions with investors, the loan is being offered at a spread of 14 percentage points over the benchmark London interbank offered rate and at a discount of about 96 cents on the dollar, the publication noted. The spread is the highest ever seen in the U.S. leverage loan market excluding companies in bankruptcy, according to Bloomberg data.

The new loan would serve as (a very expensive) insurance policy in the event that none of Fertitta’s businesses can reopen before the end of the year.

Bloomberg said the leverage loan market has been slower to recover in recent weeks compared to the high-yield bond market, which reopened last week to borrowers. The cost of borrowing soared, however.

Two months ago, Bloomberg said, sentiment in the credit market was so strong that debt investors allowed Fertitta to take a $200 million dividend out of the company, doubling the size originally targeted

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

Can we have the rockets as collateral?  I’ll put up some sweet cash for 15%.  

Edited April 9, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[Tailgate 3,022]

Anyone jump on any cruise lines during the drop? RCL has been up 10% for three straight days. Did get its teeth’s kicked in on the downturn and curious what others think of upside. After losing 70%+ there had to be a little bounce. 

[52-80 19,163]

32 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Anyone jump on any cruise lines during the drop? RCL has been up 10% for three straight days. Did get its teeth’s kicked in on the downturn and curious what others think of upside. After losing 70%+ there had to be a little bounce. 

made some decent change from NCLH using same rationale.  it, along with the airlines , yoyo'ed like a motherfucker.   -50%, +100%, back -50% again.  i dont see it doing that again, or as a viable mid-term hold

Edited April 9, 2020 by 52-80

[Sgt Hulk 13,786]

i dont pretend to know fuck all about the stock market, i dont day trade, i set and forget into etfs dollar cost.   the general feeling i get from the last few pages of this thread is that it would be preferred to have a market collapse and and a depression.  i woke up today to see all green and I was happy, i came here to see what everyones doing and it appears to be anger.  Maybe the short sellers are pissed?  i dunno but if we were in a free fall would the mood in here be more uplifting?

[bernorange 8,362]

Deserves Preferences and moods got nothing to do with it.

[ZB'Tejas 593]

3 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

i dont pretend to know fuck all about the stock market, i dont day trade, i set and forget into etfs dollar cost.   the general feeling i get from the last few pages of this thread is that it would be preferred to have a market collapse and and a depression.  i woke up today to see all green and I was happy, i came here to see what everyones doing and it appears to be anger.  Maybe the short sellers are pissed?  i dunno but if we were in a free fall would the mood in here be more uplifting?

[Captainant 27,680]

3 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

i dont pretend to know fuck all about the stock market, i dont day trade, i set and forget into etfs dollar cost.   the general feeling i get from the last few pages of this thread is that it would be preferred to have a market collapse and and a depression.  i woke up today to see all green and I was happy, i came here to see what everyones doing and it appears to be anger.  Maybe the short sellers are pissed?  i dunno but if we were in a free fall would the mood in here be more uplifting?

Markets are staying afloat because the fed has pumped more than $4,000,000,000,000 into the market over the last two weeks. At the same time, roughly 17 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits. You really can't see how the market may be propped up and how the growth you're seeing isn't sustainable?

[Beau Vine 54,254]

1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

Tilman Fertitta, the billionaire owner of Landry’s Inc., one of the country’s most prominent full-service restaurant groups, is floating some bold measures to keep his entertainment empire afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to Bloomberg, which cites people with knowledge of the matter, Fertitta, who also directs Golden Nugget casinos and owns the NBA franchise Houston Rockets, is looking to raise more debt and is offering potential lenders an interest rate of 15 percent to participate in a new $250 million loan.

WTF???  That's higher than CCC yields.  And it's for 3.5 years?!?!?

[Eastwood 4,394]

i dont pretend to know fuck all about the stock market, i dont day trade, i set and forget into etfs dollar cost.   the general feeling i get from the last few pages of this thread is that it would be preferred to have a market collapse and and a depression.  i woke up today to see all green and I was happy, i came here to see what everyones doing and it appears to be anger.  Maybe the short sellers are pissed?  i dunno but if we were in a free fall would the mood in here be more uplifting?

It's anger from the market not reflecting the reality of the situation due to people giving too much weight to the stimulus. It will amplify future losses when the other shoe drops and the market realizes how bad the economy is in late May. Basically, instead of finding bottom naturally, the bottom has been delayed and will now possibly be even deeper.

But yes, some short sellers are mad because their puts didn't pay off. But others are mad for macroeconomic reasons.

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I assume you are rounding down since the low was 11.40.

I got it at 11.60.  Yes

[52-80 19,163]

29 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

i dont pretend to know fuck all about the stock market, i dont day trade, i set and forget into etfs dollar cost.   the general feeling i get from the last few pages of this thread is that it would be preferred to have a market collapse and and a depression.

i think we'd prefer the market behave more rationally by better reflecting the economic realities, so when it bombs, it wont bomb badly

[ZB'Tejas 593]

9 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I got it at 11.60.  Yes

Might get another shot at that price too as this keep going.

Are these 3x leveraged? So you could hedge/offset losses by buying about 1/3 of what you are holding if we fall?

Edited April 9, 2020 by ZB'Tejas

[Hefeweizen 5,328]

I’ve sold every long position and gone short everything in my cash play  accounts.   This market scares me.  
 

All my retirement/ serious accounts have stayed in cash since Feb 24.  I am not getting those back in until I feel good about a bottom.

 

 My kids 529 plans sure look like shit.  Oops

[workswithseed 2,112]

4 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I’ve sold every long position and gone short everything in my cash play  accounts.   This market scares me.  
 

All my retirement/ serious accounts have stayed in cash since Feb 24.  I am not getting those back in until I feel good about a bottom.

 

 My kids 529 plans sure look like shit.  Oops

I didn't see a gif of this for some odd reason.

[Dbeasy 15,068]

Fertitta resorting to loan sharks 
Tilman Fertitta, the billionaire owner of Landry’s Inc., one of the country’s most prominent full-service restaurant groups, is floating some bold measures to keep his entertainment empire afloat during the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to Bloomberg, which cites people with knowledge of the matter, Fertitta, who also directs Golden Nugget casinos and owns the NBA franchise Houston Rockets, is looking to raise more debt and is offering potential lenders an interest rate of 15 percent to participate in a new $250 million loan.
The loan, which matures in October 2023 and is being arranged by Jefferies Financial Group Inc., per Bloomberg, is one of several steps Fertitta is taking to shore up liquidity. Landry’s announced in mid-march it furloughed 40,000 employees, or 70 percent of the company’s workforce. This as restaurants—a vast portfolio that includes Saltgrass Steak House, Bubba Gump Shrimp Co., Claim Jumper, Morton’s The Steakhouse, McCormick & Schmick’s, Mastro’s Restaurants, and Rainforest Café, among many others—were bringing in just 4–5 percent of normal sales on takeout-only models during the early days of COVID-19. All the casinos shut down as the company was burning $1 million a day.
Landry’s has already drawn $300 million of existing credit lines in full. Bloomberg added Fertitta himself is injecting $50 million of his own cash into the business, according to a source.
Based on initial discussions with investors, the loan is being offered at a spread of 14 percentage points over the benchmark London interbank offered rate and at a discount of about 96 cents on the dollar, the publication noted. The spread is the highest ever seen in the U.S. leverage loan market excluding companies in bankruptcy, according to Bloomberg data.
The new loan would serve as (a very expensive) insurance policy in the event that none of Fertitta’s businesses can reopen before the end of the year.
Bloomberg said the leverage loan market has been slower to recover in recent weeks compared to the high-yield bond market, which reopened last week to borrowers. The cost of borrowing soared, however.
Two months ago, Bloomberg said, sentiment in the credit market was so strong that debt investors allowed Fertitta to take a $200 million dividend out of the company, doubling the size originally targeted

He’d get financing more easily if his restaurants didn’t mostly suck ass.