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Markets still falling like whoa

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52-80

52-80 19,166

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I’ve sold every long position and gone short everything in my cash play  accounts.   This market scares me.  
 

All my retirement/ serious accounts have stayed in cash since Feb 24.  I am not getting those back in until I feel good about a bottom.

 

 My kids 529 plans sure look like shit.  Oops

office-900x600.jpg

 

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Bosco

Bosco 56

Posted
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

I’ve sold every long position and gone short everything in my cash play  accounts.   This market scares me.  
 

All my retirement/ serious accounts have stayed in cash since Feb 24.  I am not getting those back in until I feel good about a bottom.

 

 My kids 529 plans sure look like shit.  Oops

The broader markets are back to March 2019 levels.  Did you feel their 529 plans looked like shit then?  Or did you fund them exclusively in early 2020?

Edited by Bosco
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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5,328

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Posted

It’s all relative isn’t it?  A 30 percent haircut on a soon to be HS junior county is not going to get made up even by the brrrrrrrrr money machine.  
 

She will still go wherever she wants to but more is coming out of pocket.  

Honestly, I hope all my pessimism is wrong and the economy comes roaring back.  It sure would be nice to not have to lay a bunch of people off.   My entire team survived the first RIFs.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,939

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53 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Markets are staying afloat because the fed has pumped more than $4,000,000,000,000 into the market over the last two weeks. At the same time, roughly 17 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits.

Agree. The Fed wants to keep that asset bubble in place. Inflate or die.

The deflationary headwinds have been strong since the Great Financial Recession. The Fed has been pumping constantly since that time and could not restart what was normal growth for this economy (the stock market is not the economy). There has not been enough money velocity from the bottom up through the greater economy and there is too much idle wealth accumulation at the tippy-top.

Some post-Keynesians believe we have $50+ trillion in printing room before inflation becomes a concern.

The Fed's failing is its failure to pump new money into Main Street where it is needed restart normal economic forces (if they still exists). But that is neither here nor there in the markets where the golden rule reigns supreme - invest in what the Fed invests in. 

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3,335

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38 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I'm pretty close to breakeven, but would have been nice to show some balls and grab sub $12.

I'm in as deep as I'm gonna get with positions in SOXS at $18.78 and $29.70.  This market's behaving like it did prior to Feb.20 where bad news teflons off it and we keep moving higher.  Irrational exuberance revisited,.  My belief is we will not only test the recent lows, we will slice through them.  If you're long the market, I hope you've been selling into this rally because you'll have the opportunity to buy back those stocks at much lower prices in a month.

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bernorange

bernorange 8,362

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1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

... Some post-Keynesians believe we have $50+ trillion in printing room before inflation becomes a concern. ...

Some folks think we can increase the base money supply by over 15x without inflation concerns?

There will be a reckoning once international demand for dollars is satisfied (whether through brrr or credit destruction).

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52-80

52-80 19,166

Posted
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1 hour ago, Harrison Stafford said:

I'm in as deep as I'm gonna get with positions in SOXS at $18.78 and $29.70.  This market's behaving like it did prior to Feb.20 where bad news teflons off it and we keep moving higher.  Irrational exuberance revisited,.  My belief is we will not only test the recent lows, we will slice through them.  If you're long the market, I hope you've been selling into this rally because you'll have the opportunity to buy back those stocks at much lower prices in a month.

the last time shaggy was this negative, sushihorn was still here, and the dow/nasdak went on a tear

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9,939

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2 hours ago, bernorange said:

Some folks think we can increase the base money supply by over 15x without inflation concerns?

There will be a reckoning once international demand for dollars is satisfied (whether through brrr or credit destruction).

The powers that be will need to agree on a more reliable storage unit of value than the dollar before that happens. I don't think that happens unless the US loses its military dominance, which protects the dollar's dominance. We aren't zimbabwe or weimar. Not yet.

As for debt levels - look at Japan. That appears to be the cycle we were in before the virus - how to stave off deflation . . . I see that continuing at breakneck speed. Hence - inflate or die. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5,559

Posted
Posted

Seems like a good day to give an update on my pops

A month ago he had surgery, and was looking at trading options (but only the trades that make money)

Today is his 89th birthday, all assisted/senior living centers in Michy are locked down, no visitors allowed. So I went there before lunch, saved a Happy Birthday sign outside the window and waved at him. His surgery was for an abdominal aortic aneurysm, which was successful grafted; however he has had an oozing/weeping wound on one of the incisions. This is the cause for some concern, but other than that he is healthy, and he actually likes to go to Dr follow up appointments because he is allowed out of the facility. 
I did finally find out how he was going to make money on options, he paid just over $4,000 for a series of options trading training and strategy sessions. Some web resources, some booklets, some on-line training sessions. That was comprised of about 5 different packages that he bought, the problem was that he read through the materials and didn't understand any of it (his exact words). So he has requested a refund, which we will see how that goes. But no #stonk life for Papa Fairway. 
He is actually pretty happy that the market has recovered as much as it has, so he is sitting tight on being all in the market. 
So all-in-all a pretty good day; but I'm just hoping that it isn't the last time to see him, what with some of these COVID stories and residing in assisted living.

No worries - the market has already priced all of that in!

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,154

Posted
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9 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

i dont pretend to know fuck all about the stock market, i dont day trade, i set and forget into etfs dollar cost.   the general feeling i get from the last few pages of this thread is that it would be preferred to have a market collapse and and a depression.  i woke up today to see all green and I was happy, i came here to see what everyones doing and it appears to be anger.  Maybe the short sellers are pissed?  i dunno but if we were in a free fall would the mood in here be more uplifting?

It’s because this ‘fake it til you make it’ shit will likely lead to a lot more pain in the future.  We’d rather take as much medicine now as we can and then slowly ease out of this mess.  Not artificially inflate the market, only to see it fall on its face, only then it’s even worse with inflation thrown in the mix and the fed being out of bullets.  

My fun short plays are minuscule portion of my portfolio.  Has zero to do with a couple small plays I make.  Those are the size is sports bets I can’t exactly make these days. 
 

My real money is with ‘pros’ who were happy to see this run then just took many of their clients to 70% cash today.  They’re not in the business of putting people into cash, but see it as the most prudent move right now.  These are people who have never said to pull a cent since 2009.  
 

So who knows?  But I’m not a Bear by nature, quite the opposite. 

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2,725

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So bull case, therapy emerges (45 being looked at), testing nationwide, economy opens up by 5/15.

Bear case, attempt to open up, cause new wave of infections, which then cause military enforced quarantine, no vaccine or therapy works, Great Depression.

Outcome is solely dependent on science. Personally, I think our scientists and scientific companies are amazing and will succeed much sooner than anyone expecting on therapies and sooner than end of year on vaccine.

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3,265

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Good article

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/to-understand-the-wild-u-s-stock-rally-just-forget-about-2020?srnd=premium

Quote

“It’s almost as if nobody is even going to worry about 2020,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA. “If the earnings are so bad that it looks like the company won’t be able to survive, that matters. But for most companies, investors have to look past 2020 because nobody knows what’s going to happen.”

 

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Homercles

Homercles 10,206

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Question...I’m 39yo and my 401k has been split with 75% SP500 index fund and 25% bond index fund due to their low fees.  YTD I’m down 9% at portfolio with SP500 -13% and bond +4%.  
 

I was thinking about taking advantage of the recent run and moving to more of a 50/50 split...but also worry about having enough time to retirement that I’d mistime getting more aggressive in my portfolio.  Should I just hang back?  I have no fear of buy and hold, have seen those examples of trying to time the market...just wondering if parking a bit of the run is a smart move.  
 

Thanks 

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2,725

Posted
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1 minute ago, Homercles said:

Question...I’m 39yo and my 401k has been split with 75% SP500 index fund and 25% bond index fund due to their low fees.  YTD I’m down 9% at portfolio with SP500 -13% and bond +4%.  
 

I was thinking about taking advantage of the recent run and moving to more of a 50/50 split...but also worry about having enough time to retirement that I’d mistime getting more aggressive in my portfolio.  Should I just hang back?  I have no fear of buy and hold, have seen those examples of trying to time the market...just wondering if parking a bit of the run is a smart move.  
 

Thanks 

You're not touching that money for 25 years.  Take the bond portion and allocate towards S&P and look at it in 2025

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Rusty Shackelford

Rusty Shackelford 414

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22 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

/no CR but I can't imagine how markets would react if we purposely defaulted on part of our debt...

 

because why the hell not?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/CHINA-GOVERNMENT-1938-US-50-GOLD-BOND-LOAN-UNCANCELLED-WITH-COUPONS/372903167957?hash=item56d2c2c7d5:g:ADkAAOSwnd9eEmMW

Edited by Rusty Shackelford
/Sarcasm
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49,253

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BLKNSTY said:

 

 


If anyone wants some more insight from Chamath, here’s 15 minutes from three weeks ago. I think his interview from yesterday really reinforces what he was getting at, especially in the light of the additional 2.7T injection.

 

 

The Bobby Axelrod 's of the World have been allowed to get away with Destruction without consequences...

Agree with Chamath that the Damn Hedge Funds were allowed to have too much leverage by the system, and have been royally creating to much unnecessary volatility in markets just so they could profit and make huge bonuses.  8 to 15X Leverage in some Hedge Funds... GIVE ME A FUCKING  BREAK!!

There should be consequences for "being financially greedy  (Chamath)

Wish somehow a ton of these Hedge Funds are forced to close shop, and New Rules reduced the allowances for such high leverage in Hedge Funds...

Edited by LTtxfan
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31,496

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Posted
59 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

 

The Bobby Axelrod 's of the World have been allowed to get away with Destruction without consequences...

Agree with Chamath that the Damn Hedge Funds were allowed to have too much leverage by the system, and have been royally creating to much unnecessary volatility in markets just so they could profit and make huge bonuses.  8 to 15X Leverage in some Hedge Funds... GIVE ME A FUCKING  BREAK!!

There should be consequences for "being financially greedy  (Chamath)

Wish somehow a ton of these Hedge Funds are forced to close shop, and New Rules reduced the allowances for such high leverage in Hedge Funds...

And, of course, you have Goldman and all the follow-on ibanks inventing new fee vehicles that the hedgies invest in.  It seems that many or most of those have come untethered from any market purpose other than to generate fees.  It's like the gaming companies coming up with weird shit like Pai Gow poker.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54,254

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Homercles said:

Question...I’m 39yo and my 401k has been split with 75% SP500 index fund and 25% bond index fund due to their low fees.  YTD I’m down 9% at portfolio with SP500 -13% and bond +4%.  
 

I was thinking about taking advantage of the recent run and moving to more of a 50/50 split...but also worry about having enough time to retirement that I’d mistime getting more aggressive in my portfolio.  Should I just hang back?  I have no fear of buy and hold, have seen those examples of trying to time the market...just wondering if parking a bit of the run is a smart move.  
 

Bonds finna get kilt by inflation.
 

Moose out front shoulda told you.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5,328

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LABEVO said:

/no CR but I can't imagine how markets would react if we purposely defaulted on part of our debt...

 

That would be the end of the dollar.  You can put it next to the peso, cruzeiro, ruble, and Reichsmark at that point.  Because if it isn’t backed by the full faith of the government it’s worthless.

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3,265

Posted
Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Bonds finna get kilt by inflation.
 

Moose out front shoulda told you.

So is cash unless you expect to be able to find savings rates higher than inflation. Bonds get killed by interest rate increases depending on the durations.  You can still do ok by going to short or intermediate bond funds. 
 

right now I’ve got a few 30 month cd ladders that are earning 2.85% interest which is really good right now but those aren’t really making much relative to inflation. 

Edited by EuroHorn
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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

So is cash unless you expect to be able to find savings rates higher than inflation. Bonds get killed by interest rate increases depending on the durations.  You can still do ok by going to short or intermediate bond funds. 

TIPS

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54,254

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Posted
4 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

So is cash unless you expect to be able to find savings rates higher than inflation. Bonds get killed by interest rate increases depending on the durations.  You can still do ok by going to short or intermediate bond funds. 
 

right now I’ve got a few 30 month cd ladders that are earning 2.85% interest which is really good right now but those aren’t really making much relative to inflation. 

If I weren't close to retirement, I'd be very tempted to buy some junk bonds funds and make the bet that fewer will default than expected.  Of course, that's really not a bond investment, but rather a faux-equity investment.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5,328

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Posted

Bonds are a little spooky because if the FED doesn’t buy as many as has been speculated they could free fall.  Commercial paper should be safer right now with fed support but I would stick to investment grade or just below.  It’s just very uncertain.

 

Unrated muni bonds are still selling in the mid to high threes which to me is nuts right now, but brrrrr money machine is distorting everything.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,154

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

So bull case, therapy emerges (45 being looked at), testing nationwide, economy opens up by 5/15.

Bear case, attempt to open up, cause new wave of infections, which then cause military enforced quarantine, no vaccine or therapy works, Great Depression.

Outcome is solely dependent on science. Personally, I think our scientists and scientific companies are amazing and will succeed much sooner than anyone expecting on therapies and sooner than end of year on vaccine.

Rest easy.  As someone fairly in the know on the science side, THAT bear scenario has zero chance.  

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