Markets still falling like whoa

[Wally Fairway 5559]

Today I am missing watching the cut line at The Masters AND the Friday Fed push at the close of the market

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

Bonds finna get kilt by inflation.
 

Moose out front shoulda told you.

I don’t think that’s a given. At least short to medium term. 

[GRHorn 105]

Since y’all seem to like Chamath so much. Here’s an entertaining pod with him. The podcast is usually cryptocentric so they talk a little about Bitcoin, but mostly it’s about this shock to the economy and markets, the consequences, and what he’s planning to do with his money. 
 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-pomp-podcast/id1434060078?i=1000470287270

[Trey3216 15347]

3 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

That would be the end of the dollar.  You can put it next to the peso, cruzeiro, ruble, and Reichsmark at that point.  Because if it isn’t backed by the full faith of the government it’s worthless.

 

3 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

So is cash unless you expect to be able to find savings rates higher than inflation. Bonds get killed by interest rate increases depending on the durations.  You can still do ok by going to short or intermediate bond funds. 
 

right now I’ve got a few 30 month cd ladders that are earning 2.85% interest which is really good right now but those aren’t really making much relative to inflation. 

A 30 month CD ladder at 2.85%?!?!  So you’ll be making less than 2 real return with a penalty for cancelling early?   Nice 

Edited April 10, 2020 by Trey3216

[EuroHorn 3265]

11 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

 

A 30 month CD ladder at 2.85%?!?!  So you’ll be making less than 2 real return with a penalty for cancelling early?   Nice 

Those cds have always been part of my fixed portion of my overall portfolio for a long time.  Inflation has only been running 1.5% through March 2020.  I have 10 years of living expenses in cash type assets. And that’s only 35% of my portfolio 

Edited April 10, 2020 by EuroHorn

[Trey3216 15347]

1 minute ago, EuroHorn said:

Those cds have always been part of my fixed portion of my overall portfolio for a long time.  I have 10 years of living expenses in cash type assets. And that’s only 35% of my portfolio 

I understand.  That’s impressive.  I’m just saying it’s not a realistic, feasible, or acceptable option in general.  There are other assets I’d rather own than CD’s regardless of my situation in life 

[EuroHorn 3265]

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I understand.  That’s impressive.  I’m just saying it’s not a realistic, feasible, or acceptable option in general.  There are other assets I’d rather own than CD’s regardless of my situation in life 

The CDs are only a portion of the 35%

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

14 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Those cds have always been part of my fixed portion of my overall portfolio for a long time.  Inflation has only been running 1.5% through March 2020.  I have 10 years of living expenses in cash type assets. And that’s only 35% of my portfolio 

I'm like you in that I keep a very large portion of my assets in cash or similar assets.  Everyone gives me shit for having close to 10 years living expenses sitting idle doing fuck all, but I paid cash for my house and cash for my car.  I have no debt at all and still have my 10 years expenses available at any time.  Pretty sure you are like me in that you don't lose sleep at night worrying about what might happen if a black swan event hits.

[Anastasis 23475]

I have an 11" cock. 

Just thought I would throw that in to the discussion. 

 

 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I have an 11" cock. 

Just thought I would throw that in to the discussion. 

 

 

 

Maybe you would be better off financially if you didn't invest in that penis enlargement surgery.  I imagine they get real expensive when starting with a very short baseline.

[Anastasis 23475]

Probably shaved 3 months of living expenses off my number. 

[workswithseed 2112]

I wish I could say that, I have years till I pay off my debt, I won't be buying a home anytime soon. 

I'll just slowly gain assets till then.

[Okie State 3821]

Ten years living expenses seems a bit extreme, but I am trying to build up a year or more.

[Dbeasy 15068]

Ten years living expenses seems a bit extreme, but I am trying to build up a year or more.

I’ve mentioned this before on surly/shaggy but being the child of two depression era parents, I’ve decided over the years that I will always have enough cash to live for years without worry, and I never want to go looking for financial support from others. I’ve decided I wanted to live my life never having to depend upon the charity of others.

[Okie State 3821]

I’ve mentioned this before on surly/shaggy but being the child of two depression era parents, I’ve decided over the years that I will always have enough cash to live for years without worry, and I never want to go looking for financial support from others. I’ve decided I wanted to live my life never having to depend upon the charity of others.

Which is great if you're able to do that. Ten years expenses for my family would be $600K on the low side and $1MM on the high side. I'm not in position to hold that much in cash.

[52-80 19168]

My G20 Glock vs your 10 years of cash....who survives?

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

41 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

I wish I could say that, I have years till I pay off my debt, I won't be buying a home anytime soon. 

I'll just slowly gain assets till then.

You're young.  Plenty of time to get there.

I was broke as fuck 17 years ago.  I mean real broke, the kind where if the pay check didn't hit exactly when it was supposed to then shit was going to get turned off.

[52-80 19168]

52 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You're young.  Plenty of time to get there.

I was broke as fuck 17 years ago.  I mean real broke, the kind where if the pay check didn't hit exactly when it was supposed to then shit was going to get turned off.

This guy out here bragging about having electricity and utility services

[Dbeasy 15068]

Which is great if you're able to do that. Ten years expenses for my family would be $600K on the low side and $1MM on the high side. I'm not in position to hold that much in cash.

Understand. I built up towards those goals over the years. When I was younger we didn’t have squat.

[fattyflattie 4639]

5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Probably shaved 3 months of living expenses off my number. 

Worth it. 

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1501]

I would recommend everyone have AT LEAST a million in cash. If you don’t you should definitely do it.

[Tailgate 3022]

Ya, same here. When I was younger I didn’t have shit. Was throwing papers at 12 and haven’t stopped working since. So, every penny earned is valued greatly. I’m still a buy and hold investor and always will be....but do keep @ 10% in cash in case. Luckily I’ve been invested so long it would be an enormous undertaking, and basically global destruction, for me to get into the negative. So, I guess we’re close.

[SaucyJack 3488]

6 hours ago, Okie State said:

Ten years living expenses seems a bit extreme, but I am trying to build up a year or more.

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

My G20 Glock vs your 10 years of cash....who survives?

I do because my 10 years of cash isn't in my house.  And pretty sure you would piss down your leg if someone bucked up on your ass.

[SaucyJack 3488]

15 hours ago, 52-80 said:

My G20 Glock vs your 10 years of cash....who survives?

Thanks, Obama.
/noCR

[The People’s Elbow 707]

17 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I have an 11" cock. 

Just thought I would throw that in to the discussion. 

 

 

 

My cock is 3” and the boner’s already priced in. 😢

[workswithseed 2112]

59 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

My cock is 3” and the boner’s already priced in. 😢

Hey, man. You're beating all the Asians around you. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

19 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

Those cds have always been part of my fixed portion of my overall portfolio for a long time.  Inflation has only been running 1.5% through March 2020.  I have 10 years of living expenses in cash type assets. And that’s only 35% of my portfolio 

Agree that CDs are great for emergency funds.  I used to ladder them until interests have plummeted over the last decade. I miss the days of 5%.  The last of my 5 year CDs expire this year. I’m not a fan of the longer term CDs anymore as the difference between 1 and 5 years is low.

10 years of an emergency fund is excessive by most measures but if you can afford it and do not need higher returns, why not.

im sitting on about 9months emergency and want to bump it to 12 at some point.  Now that I’m 50, I’m not worried about short term unemployment as I am corporate downsizing that sends you home at 55. That emergency is that I don’t want to touch my retirement too early.

[Wally Fairway 5559]

So what are we expecting when futures open in a few hours? When the markets open in about 24 hours?

 

[LTtxfan 49260]

43 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

So what are we expecting when futures open in a few hours? When the markets open in about 24 hours?

 

[Lurch 5931]

I would recommend everyone have AT LEAST a million in cash. If you don’t you should definitely do it.

I’m now $9.95 shorter of that goal

[Wally Fairway 5559]

On 4/11/2020 at 12:24 AM, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

I would recommend everyone have AT LEAST a million in cash. If you don’t you should definitely do it.

Thanks good advice - one million pennies, does that count?
Where would you suggest I store them?
for reference google tells me that is just under 5,000 feet of pennies, weighing about 5,500 pounds
  (note - this is assuming all pennies were minted after 1982 and therefore weigh 2.5 grams, those minted before 1982 weighed 3.11 grams)
 

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

This week kicks off earnings announcements in earnest.  My bet is companies will try to take out all the trash this quarter and write off everything and anything that is even close to being impaired since everyone expects things to be complete shit anyway.

Some notable reports this week (bmo = before market open / amc = after market close):

Monday

DAL bmo

 

Tuesday

UAL amc
JPM bmo
WFC bmo
JNJ bmo

 

Wednesday

BAC bmo
BBBY amc
USB bmo
C bmo
UNH bmo
GS bmo
MS bmo

 

Thursday

ABT bmo
BLK bmo
BK bmo
 

Friday

SLB bmo

[LABEVO 928]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

28 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

This week kicks off earnings announcements in earnest.  My bet is companies will try to take out all the trash this quarter and write off everything and anything that is even close to being impaired since everyone expects things to be complete shit anyway.

Yep, rip those band-aids off any and everything that can be blamed on covid. I’m sure many CFOs and their teams have been busy on this task.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Buckle up.  

 

Not sure what for...but I'm guessing things won't be boring.  I'm calling on a pullback the next couple weeks...so prepare for new all time highs.  

[Anastasis 23475]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Buckle up.  

 

Not sure what for...but I'm guessing things won't be boring.  I'm calling on a pullback the next couple weeks...so prepare for new all time highs.  

I think we have pain this week. I’ll dump out of some of my trades pretty quick if shit turns south. And will buy into this in my 401k. 

[TonyTexas 10516]

Market down 1.5% pre-market 

[HookEm 2467]

Once this thing turns south again, I think it is going to drop quickly as people realize that this was a dead cat bounce.

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

1 hour ago, HookEm said:

Once this thing turns south again, I think it is going to drop quickly as people realize that this was a dead cat bounce.

That’s my worry is there’s not enough fed bullets left and it’s totally craters.  

[Incredulity 11675]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

That’s my worry is there’s not enough fed bullets left and it’s totally craters.  

When there aren’t enough Fed bullets left you literally need to have ammo, not gold.  

[Not a cat 5660]

On 4/11/2020 at 12:15 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agree that CDs are great for emergency funds.  I used to ladder them until interests have plummeted over the last decade. I miss the days of 5%.  The last of my 5 year CDs expire this year. I’m not a fan of the longer term CDs anymore as the difference between 1 and 5 years is low.

10 years of an emergency fund is excessive by most measures but if you can afford it and do not need higher returns, why not.

im sitting on about 9months emergency and want to bump it to 12 at some point.  Now that I’m 50, I’m not worried about short term unemployment as I am corporate downsizing that sends you home at 55. That emergency is that I don’t want to touch my retirement too early.

Getting downsized at 55 honestly seems like an awesome retirement plan.  Grab that layoff payout and you can access your current employer's 401k plan penalty free if you retire at 55.  Use those funds if you need them, otherwise Roth conversions while your income is low.

I'm also 50 and have 3 years left until the youngest leaves the nest.  I've run the numbers and staying on until 55 is what makes the most financial sense but I just can't do it.  I'm going to be happy I took advantage of  those two extra years of health (hopefully) when I had the chance.

[Blotto 23559]

Zork posted this link in another thread. Nothing hugely surprising, but it gives some quantitative context to the impact Coronavirus is having on various industries. Gave me some ideas to research.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/11/business/economy/coronavirus-us-economy-spending.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

14 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Zork posted this link in another thread. Nothing hugely surprising, but it gives some quantitative context to the impact Coronavirus is having on various industries. Gave me some ideas to research.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/11/business/economy/coronavirus-us-economy-spending.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

Thanks for the link.  I'm sure it's already "priced in", but there have to be a few disconnects between drop in revenue and drop in market cap somewhere in there.  Or other way around there could be companies that have seen bigger drops in revenue than their market cap reflects. 

Check out WING which is damn near yearly highs.  Get the fuck out of here with that bullshit.  Guarantee you most of their recent run is a short squeeze due to the 13% short position.

Auto parts are another one that I would consider looking at on the short side because they were a huge winner in the 2008 crisis.  Lot of people probably think go back and see what held up pretty good in 2008 and buy that... auto parts would be a bear trap with that line of thinking.  No where to drive to, so no need to buy auto parts.

[workswithseed 2112]

2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

When there aren’t enough Fed bullets left you literally need to have ammo, not gold.  

Well... Fuck

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

40 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Thanks for the link.  I'm sure it's already "priced in", but there have to be a few disconnects between drop in revenue and drop in market cap somewhere in there.  Or other way around there could be companies that have seen bigger drops in revenue than their market cap reflects. 

Check out WING which is damn near yearly highs.  Get the fuck out of here with that bullshit.  Guarantee you most of their recent run is a short squeeze due to the 13% short position.

Auto parts are another one that I would consider looking at on the short side because they were a huge winner in the 2008 crisis.  Lot of people probably think go back and see what held up pretty good in 2008 and buy that... auto parts would be a bear trap with that line of thinking.  No where to drive to, so no need to buy auto parts.

Discount stores like Dollar General maybe another short target.  They went bonkers in 2008 / 2009.  They kept going bonkers as the middle class kept getting smaller and smaller and took on a lot of debt to expand into shithole areas.

[Fudge Nuggets 19206]

38 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Discount stores like Dollar General maybe another short target.  They went bonkers in 2008 / 2009.  They kept going bonkers as the middle class kept getting smaller and smaller and took on a lot of debt to expand into shithole areas.

Looks like $DG is carrying 20% of their assets as Goodwill and 10 days ago issued $1 bln in bonds at just over 4%.  That's a 34% increase in their debt.  I bet they slashed G&A like mother fuckers, but if no revenue is coming in this could be interesting.

[Trey3216 15347]

5 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Looks like $DG is carrying 20% of their assets as Goodwill and 10 days ago issued $1 bln in bonds at just over 4%.  That's a 34% increase in their debt.  I bet they slashed G&A like mother fuckers, but if no revenue is coming in this could be interesting.

Every time I’ve driven past a Dollar Generous the last 3 weeks it’s been packed.  I don’t see them having any troubles at all right now 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

DG will hold up better because it's more rural footprint.  (They're in towns so small that there are no other options.)  The other chains like Family Dollar are more urban and have a higher exposure to the virus.

[52-80 19168]

11 hours ago, HookEm said:

Once this thing turns south again, I think it is going to drop quickly as people realize that this was a dead cat bounce.

If Jesus could rise from the dead, why can't the Dow?