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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19206

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

That’s my worry is there’s not enough fed bullets left and it’s totally craters.  

I saw a headline this morning that says your boys at Goldman Sachs changed their tune and believe the bottom is in.  This kind of contradicts your message late last week that they moved 70% into cash.  I mean they wouldn't say one thing and do another, would they?  Surely not.

Not bashing you in case it comes across that way.  I got a kick out of the headline after reading your post last week.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19206

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

The Fed is not close to running out of bullets yet. Printer will keep on going brrrrrrr x Trillions more. When they buy all the US and corporate debt they will move on to stonks

I have to cut a check to those IRS bastards on July 15 for $12K and not getting a fucking dime from all this stimulus.  Fuck everything.

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hornbri

hornbri 1400

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I saw a headline this morning that says your boys at Goldman Sachs changed their tune and believe the bottom is in.  This kind of contradicts your message late last week that they moved 70% into cash.  I mean they wouldn't say one thing and do another, would they?  Surely not.

Not bashing you in case it comes across that way.  I got a kick out of the headline after reading your post last week.

If banks are starting to say this I bet it is true. We will have som days like today but I bet the overall trend is flat to slightly up. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I saw a headline this morning that says your boys at Goldman Sachs changed their tune and believe the bottom is in.  This kind of contradicts your message late last week that they moved 70% into cash.  I mean they wouldn't say one thing and do another, would they?  Surely not.

Not bashing you in case it comes across that way.  I got a kick out of the headline after reading your post last week.

That’s Kostin.  He’s a part of Goldman.  You gotta realize there’s a lot of big egos there and they don’t all move in unison.  Akselrad who probably was as big as Kostin and left for JPM and several guys below still at GS moved to more cash Thursday.  
Also, keep in mind, ‘the bottom is in’ vs Thursday's numbers are a new low is a pretty big spread.  Kostin sure as hell wasn't plowin more money in.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15347

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I saw a headline this morning that says your boys at Goldman Sachs changed their tune and believe the bottom is in.  This kind of contradicts your message late last week that they moved 70% into cash.  I mean they wouldn't say one thing and do another, would they?  Surely not.

Not bashing you in case it comes across that way.  I got a kick out of the headline after reading your post last week.

They had to unload those stonks they sold onto someone 

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Every time I’ve driven past a Dollar Generous the last 3 weeks it’s been packed.  I don’t see them having any troubles at all right now 

Same.  Had to check on the cows for the old man last week and passed about 5-6 of them. They were slam packed.  That being said, those in particular stay packed, and its a tiny anecdotal point. 

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52-80

52-80 19166

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Posted

Why is GS talked about as if they're still some soothsayer of the market?  Is their prop trading desk any more profitable than JPM, RBC, Barclays, or whoever else? If they held exclusive rights to some secret sauce, they probably wouldn't have to underwrite apple cards or offer Marcus

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15347

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 52-80 said:

Why is GS talked about as if they're still some soothsayer of the market?  Is their prop trading desk any more profitable than JPM, RBC, Barclays, or whoever else? If they held exclusive rights to some secret sauce, they probably wouldn't have to underwrite apple cards or offer Marcus

Marcus users are where they dump all their stonks to go to 70% cash for ChiTownDoc  

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LABEVO

LABEVO 928

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I saw a headline this morning that says your boys at Goldman Sachs changed their tune and believe the bottom is in.  This kind of contradicts your message late last week that they moved 70% into cash.  I mean they wouldn't say one thing and do another, would they?  Surely not.

Not bashing you in case it comes across that way.  I got a kick out of the headline after reading your post last week.

From their research reports...

Quote

On a year-on-year basis, our forecast for US growth shows -11% in Q2, -8% in Q3, and -5% in Q4, which clearly qualifies as U-shaped. On a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis, however, this same forecast shows -34% in Q2, +19% in Q3, and +12% in Q4, which looks rather V-shaped. Thus, our forecast is one in which the economy recovers only gradually from the virus but nevertheless shows sequential growth rates in H2 that are unprecedented in postwar history. Such is the strange world of recovering from a pandemic shock.

 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Why is GS talked about as if they're still some soothsayer of the market?  Is their prop trading desk any more profitable than JPM, RBC, Barclays, or whoever else? If they held exclusive rights to some secret sauce, they probably wouldn't have to underwrite apple cards or offer Marcus

Actually, I have moved most of my funds to JPM.  They have taken a ton of GS top talent...and I don't think that's a secret.  But I laugh anytime one analyst from any of these places makes some prediction and the headline is 'GS/JPM says such and such'.  It's comical.  

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Captainant

Captainant 27680

Posted
Posted

This market IS overpriced right now. I don't understand how there's any expectation of normal capital flow for consumers, renters, and mortgage holders to return within the next half year. The money machine can only BRRRRRR for so long, nevermind that those funds aren't actually going into the consumption cycle which is what we need to keep the economic pump primed

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12002

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Posted

The Nasdaq is where it was in September / October of 2019. 
Anyone feel as warm and fuzzy as they did half a year ago?

Nuts. I know the fed just printed a lot of money... but Christ. We are back to 6 months ago after shutting down the economy for a month. The whole thing. 
Animated GIF

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5559

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

We keep talking about the economy being shut down for a whole month.  What had actually been shut down?

Depends where you are - in many states it is all restaurants (excluding take out), personal services (hair cuts/salons, tattoo shops, etc), anything deemed to be non-essential - florists, clothing, cruise ships, amusement parks, social gatherings over 10 people, so bars, churches, sporting events, all schools, movie theaters, fitness centers - just to name a few. 
Also elective surgery, funeral homes cannot hold memorial services (except for immediate family less than 10 people, maybe some exceptions) air travel is down 90+%, casinos are closed, farms are struggling to get crops picked (due to limited movement of farm workers), in some states construction work (unless on an essential project/industry)
Those a just the things off the top of my head

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5559

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Captainant said:

This market IS overpriced right now. I don't understand how there's any expectation of normal capital flow for consumers, renters, and mortgage holders to return within the next half year. The money machine can only BRRRRRR for so long, nevermind that those funds aren't actually going into the consumption cycle which is what we need to keep the economic pump primed

 

36 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

The Nasdaq is where it was in September / October of 2019. 
Anyone feel as warm and fuzzy as they did half a year ago?

Nuts. I know the fed just printed a lot of money... but Christ. We are back to 6 months ago after shutting down the economy for a month. The whole thing. 
 

People thought the market was over priced 6 months ago, and it was going pretty strong until it caught a virus

 

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bluto

bluto 4932

Posted
Posted
Depends where you are - in many states it is all restaurants (excluding take out), personal services (hair cuts/salons, tattoo shops, etc), anything deemed to be non-essential - florists, clothing, cruise ships, amusement parks, social gatherings over 10 people, so bars, churches, sporting events, all schools, movie theaters, fitness centers - just to name a few. 
Also elective surgery, funeral homes cannot hold memorial services (except for immediate family less than 10 people, maybe some exceptions) air travel is down 90+%, casinos are closed, farms are struggling to get crops picked (due to limited movement of farm workers), in some states construction work (unless on an essential project/industry)
Those a just the things off the top of my head

Throw on reduced hours for a lot of stores and restrictions on head counts. Hotels with ~90% drop in rev (personal estimate). Uber/Lyft armies shuttered short of food delivery. A huge swath of real estate professionals sidelined.
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WBT

WBT 20617

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Posted (edited)

AMZN got within a buck of its all-time high in after hours today.  I get that people are having more delivered now but that seems to not account for people needing jobs in order to continue to buy shit.  Guess it's all priced in somehow.

Edited by WBT
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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3265

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, WBT said:

AMZN got within a buck of its all-time high in after hours today.  I get that people are having more shit delivered now but that seems to not account for people not having jobs.  Guess it's all priced in somehow.

Total US workforce is about 165m people.  Net out the unemployed and figure that most of the 155m who still have jobs are ordering even more online, if not for the first time. I rarely ordered much from Amazon before the virus.  Ive placed at least four orders int the past month. Amazon should be making out pretty good these days and that will continue 

Edited by EuroHorn
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

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Posted
7 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Total US workforce is about 165m people.  Net out the unemployed and figure that most of the 155m who still have jobs are ordering even more online, if not for the first time. I rarely ordered much from Amazon before the virus.  Ive placed at least four orders int the past month. Amazon should be making out pretty good these days and that will continue 

If the workforce is 165M there is no way in hell 155M still have jobs.  Jesus

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
Just now, EuroHorn said:

How many have jobs?

Saying there's a LOT of people furloughed etc that are not showing up in unemployment numbers.  Also a metric shitton of people in the gig economy out of work that have simply not applied yet.  I know of dozens of people in FL that have been trying to apply for unemployment but have not gotten through.  I'd say the 'real' unemployment rate is closer to 30%.  End of March it was 15-20%. 

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/new-data-show-true-march-jobless-rate-near-20-percent/?agreed=1

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3265

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Saying there's a LOT of people furloughed etc that are not showing up in unemployment numbers.  Also a metric shitton of people in the gig economy out of work that have simply not applied yet.  I know of dozens of people in FL that have been trying to apply for unemployment but have not gotten through.  I'd say the 'real' unemployment rate is closer to 30%.  End of March it was 15-20%. 

https://tcf.org/content/commentary/new-data-show-true-march-jobless-rate-near-20-percent/?agreed=1

http://www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htm

we can debate all day on the number of employed.  Whether it’s 155m, 140m or 125m.  My  point still stands that amazon is seeing a big increase in demand from existing and new customers 

Edited by EuroHorn
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, EuroHorn said:

Great!  Not relevant to my point. 

Let me tell you how shit works.  When you’re trying to make a point and you’re off by 40M in the same post...that point is going to get lost.  
 

Even if the point you’re making is in the same post but not related.  It’s the grownups table here.  

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3265

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Let me tell you how shit works.  When you’re trying to make a point and you’re off by 40M in the same post...that point is going to get lost.  
 

Even if the point you’re making is in the same post but not related.  It’s the grownups table here.  

Lol...

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