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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5590

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

 

Thus my question.  Seems like bad stewardship, but pension funds have been doing that for a while now.

Today, a defined benefit pension seems like a really bad idea, but they were the standard retirement plan for quite some time.  Did they ever really work or were they always a Ponzi scheme?

I don't think they were a Ponzi scheme, I just don't think they understood the population that they served.
Actuaries were far to slow to realize that life expectancy was growing, and it was growing faster then they could ever catch up with. And it was a double edged sword that was causing these problems, because the cause was driven by the retiree medical benefits that companies/gov't entities also paid. 
And when healthcare was able to deliver live extending medicine (heart surgery, cancer treatments, etc) then the pension/health care providers were now on the hook for much longer periods of time and at higher costs than ever expected, nor did the actuaries see it coming.

Anectodal proof - my dad "scammed" his way into a full county gov't pension, at age 82 he had triple bypass surgery and has survived until today. That is almost 7 years of pension and much higher medical costs, and it all get rolled into the underfunding of that counties pension and medical coverage (well not underfunded, because I don't think healthcare costs are prefunded like pensions).
His father had a heart attack when he was 58, and died 1 day later in the hospital - that heart attack today would have likely been treated and he'd have been up and around for years to come. He would have likely been around long enough that I would have remembered him, but it wasn't so I have no memory of my grandfather who died shortly after I turned 2. 

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3024

Posted
Posted (edited)

Well...a first for me. Still holding long in my main account but in my “play” account which had grown substantially...I just sold my AAPL position at $280. The gains the last few weeks have been nuts and I don’t see how they maintain through earnings and this recession (however long). I’ll take my 35% year-to-date gain on a large position. 

Holding strong on AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, SPCE and BYND...and will get back in AAPL when a little more dust settles.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23487

Posted
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2 hours ago, Tailgate said:

Well...a first for me. Still holding long in my main account but in my “play” account which had grown substantially...I just sold my AAPL position at $280. The gains the last few weeks have been nuts and I don’t see how they maintain through earnings and this recession (however long). I’ll take my 35% year-to-date gain on a large position. 

Holding strong on AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, SPCE and BYND...and will get back in AAPL when a little more dust settles.

Still kicking myself for not picking up AMZN.  BYND had done quite nicely this month. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21175

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

A great question is why the fuck is the Canada Pension Plan investing in LBOs?  If the debt isn't junk, it's got to be close.

When you have a drought you see all the skeletons exposed at the bottom of the lake.  Some jackass manager who was taking a kickback very likely made that not so slick move. 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21175

Posted
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32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Still kicking myself for not picking up AMZN.  BYND had done quite nicely this month. 

I think it's very easy to kick ourselves right now.  It's hard but gotta see the big picture.  I think most of us protected the downside and cost ourselves some upside.  I'm totally ok with that in the position I'm in.  When I was still worried about growth I likely would have been more aggressive.  Shit changes. 

My thoughts are with the dozens of small business owners I know personally who are getting the absolute shit kicked out of them.  I have lots of friends and family type industry investments...I'm not looking for any distributions, just hope these people survive.  Hope I'm wrong and this all turns around faster than the cards show. 

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3024

Posted
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40 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Still kicking myself for not picking up AMZN.  BYND had done quite nicely this month. 

Ya, it took me a while to bite on AMZN at $900 and again at $1,100. Because I thought that was pricey then...damn...they need to announce a split on the 30th.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23487

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5 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Ya, it took me a while to bite on AMZN at $900 and again at $1,100. Because I thought that was pricey then...damn...they need to announce a split on the 30th.

I bought some during the Christmas crash in 2018 and sold it in February. Told myself I'd buy back in when it hit 1500 again and it just didn't get there.  

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Blotto

Blotto 23584

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Next thing we know, MBS will get popped and we’ll have a Black Swan paired with multiple full-scale regional destabilization deaths happening.  Guess I’ll pour me a drink and watch the world burn. 

And buy puts....definately buy some more puts.

 

Brrrrrrrrrr

 

Goddamnit JPow.

I actually did start buying some longer term SPY puts this afternoon, which I hadn't done in weeks. Nothing too crazy yet, basically just cost averaging down the 225 July puts that I never got rid of a couple of weeks ago(down about 80%, lulz) I think earnings will show that software/tech companies are holding up pretty well, but other sectors will be worse off. Only the tail end of Q1 will show the effects of the shutdown, but Q2 guidance will be interesting, assuming companies even bother to quantify it. I assume the most fucked will just claim that they aren't in a position to provide guidance and leave it at that.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5590

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Next thing we know, MBS will get popped and we’ll have a Black Swan paired with multiple full-scale regional destabilization deaths happening.  Guess I’ll pour me a drink and watch the world burn. 

 

1 hour ago, Blotto said:

And buy puts....definately buy some more puts.

 

Brrrrrrrrrr

 

Goddamnit JPow.

I actually did start buying some longer term SPY puts this afternoon, which I hadn't done in weeks. Nothing too crazy yet, basically just cost averaging down the 225 July puts that I never got rid of a couple of weeks ago(down about 80%, lulz) I think earnings will show that software/tech companies are holding up pretty well, but other sectors will be worse off. Only the tail end of Q1 will show the effects of the shutdown, but Q2 guidance will be interesting, assuming companies even bother to quantify it. I assume the most fucked will just claim that they aren't in a position to provide guidance and leave it at that.

too late

markets already priced it all in 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19227

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Markets turn negative as unconfirmed reports of Kim Jong Un is seriously ill

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/south-korean-won-tumbles-as-unconfirmed-report-says-kim-jong-un-is-seriously-ill.html

No idea why that would be considered bad news.  Is N Korea now some sort of global economic force?

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21175

Posted
Posted (edited)

Still keeping my most of my powder dry. And we are back to where I bailed.  Nibbled on some oil and amazon but I think more pain is on the way.  
 

If I protect the nest egg and miss out on some upside I’ll be ok.  Was a good piece on Buffett and Berkshire staying put in a lot of cash as all this shakes out.  
 

https://apple.news/A4HvZPB6GT5O-tRqt1NU8PA

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5590

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

No idea why that would be considered bad news.  Is N Korea now some sort of global economic force?

because I was wrong, and it affects the market because it wasn't already in the price
and everyone would rather have the crazy dictator that you know than the one that you don't know, or a military coup to run a nuclear state....just my guesses

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