Markets still falling like whoa

[WBT 20,561]

4 hours ago, bernorange said:

The oil blend is mostly Canola Oil, which is a terrible Monsanto Frankenstien oil.  The fourth ingredient (methylcellulose) is an indigestible bulk-forming laxative.

Note:  There is no soy in it.

Mmm, vegetable extract mix

[Archer 474]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Earnings calls for next week:

Monday

CLR (time not supplied)
KDP amc
FFIV amc
NOV amc
OII (time not supplied)

 

Tuesday

MMM bmo
GOOGL amc
LUV bmo
AMD amc
MRK bmo
F ???
SBUX amc
CAT bmo

 

Wednesday

ADM amc
AZZ bmo (no idea who they are, but that ticker tho)
YUM bmo
BA bmo
GE bmo
RCL bmo
CVS bmo
 

Thursday

FLWS bmo (more dead people, more flowers?)
AMZN amc
AAL bmo
AAPL amc
UAL amc
DNKN bmo
BZH amc
TAP bmo
WDC amc
 

Friday

ABBV bmo
XOM bmo
CL bmo
CLX bmo
CVX bmo
 

Overall pretty interesting week.  I think we get a better feel for whether this last month run up is smoke and mirrors or the real thing between Wednesday and Thursday.  If there is a big "sell the news" after AMZN, AAPL report or maybe we get a "meh, it's priced in" after UAL and AAL shit the bed.

I haven't read up on many earnings calls, but the few I have it seems management is not providing any guidance at all for the rest of 2020.  So basically the market appears to be working off the old numbers because why not?

I took small nibbles on several on those list today so I am sure they will crash during earnings next week. 

[babysdaddy 2,721]

I love this thread. Can best be summed up with “why isn’t the market doing what I expect it to do!?!?”

Good luck boys

[workswithseed 2,095]

16 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I love this thread. Can best be summed up with “why isn’t the market doing what I expect it to do!?!?”

Good luck boys

If it did, we'd all be richer with hotter girlfriends than we have now.

[UTexasFight 9,430]

If it did, we'd all be richer with hotter girlfriends than we have now a girlfriend.

Fify

[Parliament 14,249]

Unemployment during the Depression peaked at 24.9% (in 1933).  Will we break that record this year?

[Captainant 27,641]

4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Unemployment during the Depression peaked at 24.9% (in 1933).  Will we break that record this year?

I'm sure they'll find a way to fudge the numbers or undercount so that doesn't happen. Worked great with covid testing. 

[hornbri 1,396]

7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Unemployment during the Depression peaked at 24.9% (in 1933).  Will we break that record this year?

Very doubtful

[bluto 4,915]

The analysis I’ve seen has it peaking in the low 20% range.

[4thgenhorn 38]

17 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

I love this thread. Can best be summed up with “why isn’t the market doing what I expect it to do!?!?”

Good luck boys

3 steps to making cash in the market:

1. Write down your best investment idea

2. Do the opposite 

3. Profit

 

[Wally Fairway 5,541]

11 hours ago, hornbri said:

Very doubtful

agree - companies who received PPP funds will need to call people back to qualify for loan forgiveness.

counter-point - I know that state and local governments are now doing 2-week rolling furloughs (not sure how if that will show up in unemployment figures)
counter-point #2 - We are not sure if all our employees will come back immediately, as some earn more being unemployed (due to Fed bonus payment) and not coming back does not automatically disqualify them from benefits as they can say they are concerned about covid to stay eligible

so I'd say 50/50 chance (more like 70/30) that total unemployment figures start to decline soon; the real question is how quickly does the number collecting unemployment decline?

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

Ouch.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4339865-why-investor-complacency-soon-be-replaced-primal-fear

[Wally Fairway 5,541]

37 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ouch.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4339865-why-investor-complacency-soon-be-replaced-primal-fear

{whisper} - it's already priced in

[Hefeweizen 5,310]

10 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ouch.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4339865-why-investor-complacency-soon-be-replaced-primal-fear

Brrrrrr money machine don't care.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

Not sure how Wall Street has priced in unknown global demand. It’s like how a governor can declare restaurants are open, the restaurant can call its staff back, and 3 tables are full for Saturday night.

[hornbri 1,396]

11 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ouch.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4339865-why-investor-complacency-soon-be-replaced-primal-fear

Just make sure you realize this guy is a bear and already bet on it (as noted in the disclosure). So he has both a motivation to write article like that and also is basis to think that way.

[Parliament 14,249]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not sure how Wall Street has priced in unknown global demand. 

Close to blasphemy.  Tread carefully, Sir.

[Wally Fairway 5,541]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not sure how Wall Street has priced in unknown global demand. It’s like how a governor can declare restaurants are open, the restaurant can call its staff back, and 3 tables are full for Saturday night.

You are right, but the market seems to ignore those talking points. The market seems to trust infinite Fed support.

Time will tell, I'm not trusting my own judgement to bet on another correction, based on the last month of bear pain

[tx 3 putt 76,879]

On 4/25/2020 at 9:24 AM, Parliament said:

Unemployment during the Depression peaked at 24.9% (in 1933).  Will we break that record this year?

yes 

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not sure how Wall Street has priced in unknown global demand. It’s like how a governor can declare restaurants are open, the restaurant can call its staff back, and 3 tables are full for Saturday night.

This is what will happen.  You can open up 100% tomorrow but people are either scared for their finances or scared for their personal safety.  Forget social distancing guidelines, people aren't going to rush out to spend money in public anytime soon.

[Goofyboy 3,269]

This is what will happen.  You can open up 100% tomorrow but people are either scared for their finances or scared for their personal safety.  Forget social distancing guidelines, people aren't going to rush out to spend money in public anytime soon.

I don’t know if they will rush out and spend in public, but I’m pretty sure they want to spend. Amazon hasn’t slowed down at all.

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

1 minute ago, Goofyboy said:

I don’t know if they will rush out and spend in public, but I’m pretty sure they want to spend. Amazon hasn’t slowed down at all.

You've got an unemployment number somewhere around 30%.  Sure, Peleton is on backorder for the upscale whites but large swaths of Americans don't know if they're going to pay rent in May.  They're not about to take the family to Slobster.

[po elvis 2,070]

What I can't get out of my head is that the market was already due a healthy correction without the coronavirus.

[ChiTownDoc 21,144]

20 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ouch.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4339865-why-investor-complacency-soon-be-replaced-primal-fear

Yep. 

20 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

{whisper} - it's already priced in

In the grand scheme we are only 5-6 weeks into stay at home etc.  Investors are in impatient bunch.  Raises hand.  

We keep joking about shit being priced in but another big pullback is coming.  It may take 5 months or longer but a really shitty 2021 is not priced in.  

Edited April 26, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[ChiTownDoc 21,144]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Not sure how Wall Street has priced in unknown global demand. It’s like how a governor can declare restaurants are open, the restaurant can call its staff back, and 3 tables are full for Saturday night.

Narrator: they haven’t 

[workswithseed 2,095]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

You are right, but the market seems to ignore those talking points. The market seems to trust infinite Fed support.

Time will tell, I'm not trusting my own judgement to bet on another correction, based on the last month of bear pain

 

[TonyTexas 10,508]

3 hours ago, hornbri said:

Just make sure you realize this guy is a bear and already bet on it (as noted in the disclosure). So he has both a motivation to write article like that and also is basis to think that way.

Yep. You can find articles outlining every possible scenario. Up, down, sideways and every variation of each. 

[fattyflattie 4,639]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This is what will happen.  You can open up 100% tomorrow but people are either scared for their finances or scared for their personal safety.  Forget social distancing guidelines, people aren't going to rush out to spend money in public anytime soon.

I agree with much of this, but I can see some big time sales coming in retail.  I’ve got a wishlist I’ve been keeping, and I’m sure I’m not the only one.  But I still largely agree with you here.   

[Wally Fairway 5,541]

5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep. 

In the grand scheme we are only 5-6 weeks into stay at home etc.  Investors are in impatient bunch.  Raises hand.  

We keep joking about shit bring priced in but another big pullback is coming.  It may take 5 months or longer but a really shitty 2021 is not priced in.  

Gag-gree
The problem bears have is they are impatient and cheap - they want to buy short term puts, and have their shorts turn green; both of those get much more expensive if you have to hold them for 6-12-18 months. But I am convinced that there will be value in SPY 200-220 puts by mid 2021, but it takes a big wallet and some brass balls to buy into this short term (1 month) bounce. 
Once companies start reporting, and forecasts drop (or they quit giving guidance) then the investing community will see that the economic impact will go longer than the current crisis. And don't even get me going about how the 2nd (and maybe 3rd) wave will tear communities apart and bring new lows to the market.

[Incredulity 11,657]

5 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This is what will happen.  You can open up 100% tomorrow but people are either scared for their finances or scared for their personal safety.  Forget social distancing guidelines, people aren't going to rush out to spend money in public anytime soon.

Depends on the scenario.

I would put the tidal wave of hospitality demand at 3 weeks.

Week 1 will be a mess

Week 2 will be half a mess, but enough people will social media their good times.

Week 3 FOMO strikes.

[TonyTexas 10,508]

4 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

I agree with much of this, but I can see some big time sales coming in retail.  I’ve got a wishlist I’ve been keeping, and I’m sure I’m not the only one.  But I still largely agree with you here.   

Yep. I read somewhere that retail is going to have Black Friday type deals. 

[Eastwood 4,394]

38 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Yep. I read somewhere that retail is going to have Black Friday type deals. 

It's already happening on the local level with restaurants. A local brewpub here was doing a 6 pack of their brew with a 1 topping pizza for $16. The pizza by itself used to run close to that. Imagine what clothing retail is going to look like when fall/winter catalogue starts approaching and their summer inventory barely got touched because summer wasn't a thing this year.

[TonyTexas 10,508]

Yep. They might just give away Spring inventory. 

[Trey3216 15,345]

I know quite a few micro-breweries are having to resort to any means necessary right now since they’ll have to throw beer out if they don’t sell it soon 

[UTexasFight 9,430]

I know quite a few micro-breweries are having to resort to any means necessary right now since they’ll have to throw beer out if they don’t sell it soon 

WSJ article yesterday talking about $1 billion worth of beer is going to expire and be tossed.
10 million gallons abandoned in venues in March

[Incredulity 11,657]

1 minute ago, UTexasFight said:

WSJ article yesterday talking about $1 billion worth of beer is going to expire and be tossed.
10 million gallons abandoned in venues in March

 

[Trey3216 15,345]

18 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

WSJ article yesterday talking about $1 billion worth of beer is going to expire and be tossed.
10 million gallons abandoned in venues in March

No doubt   

[Wally Fairway 5,541]

21 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

WSJ article yesterday talking about $1 billion worth of beer is going to expire and be tossed.
10 million gallons abandoned in venues in March

just read the article - actually mentions lots of industries struggling - cruise lines, air carriers, farming, etc

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-problem-is-brewing-in-the-beer-industry-one-million-kegs-are-going-stale-11587733224?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=2

[Beau Vine 54,209]

34 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

WSJ article yesterday talking about $1 billion worth of beer is going to expire and be tossed.
10 million gallons abandoned in venues in March

[Fudge Nuggets 19,189]

5 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Once companies start reporting, and forecasts drop (or they quit giving guidance) then the investing community will see that the economic impact will go longer than the current crisis.

One third of the S&P 500 has already reported and 90% withdrew guidance.  That is  astonishing.

Oh, and the big bounce from the lows... it's pretty much just five stocks carrying the water.

 

Once (if) a crack ever forms in the hedge fund hotels, it's all over.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets

[bluto 4,915]

Futures up a percent right now. Oil down 9% and Nat gas down 2%.

[RCRanger03 1,049]

What are everyone's positions right now?

I'm long on GOOGL, MSFT, DIS, MCD

I'm short on UAVS, DECN (stonksssssss bag holding until May 8th at which point I'll be rich or they'll be worthless)

[52-80 19,147]

1 hour ago, RCRanger03 said:

What are everyone's positions right now?

I'm long on GOOGL, MSFT, DIS, MCD

I'm short on UAVS, DECN (stonksssssss bag holding until May 8th at which point I'll be rich or they'll be worthless)

long AAPL, BRKB, BYND, NFLX, GLDM, VHT, VOOV, SKYY, MA, [my gay ass employer],

bagholding short on small-cap index

rest in money market funds, treasury funds, cash

 

some gambling-sized puts on ANF, GPS, LYV, SNAP

[Tailgate 3,021]

2 hours ago, RCRanger03 said:

What are everyone's positions right now?

I'm long on GOOGL, MSFT, DIS, MCD

I'm short on UAVS, DECN (stonksssssss bag holding until May 8th at which point I'll be rich or they'll be worthless)

Long AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, BYND, GOOG, SPCE and some funds.

Im grabbing some LUV today.

EDIT- looking at a small position in TAP this week as well. I’ve personally, very likely, helped them beat earnings this quarter.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Tailgate

[Wally Fairway 5,541]

4 hours ago, RCRanger03 said:

What are everyone's positions right now?

I'm long on GOOGL, MSFT, DIS, MCD

I'm short on UAVS, DECN (stonksssssss bag holding until May 8th at which point I'll be rich or they'll be worthless)

Good luck on those shorts - I'm just curious what the cost is to borrow penny stocks?

I'm long SPY, LUV, VGT, and a growth fund (I'd have to look to see which one)  have open short positions (puts) on SPY, DIS, XOP, and a strangle on USO (that I'm losing both sides of right now), and in my 401k (Fidelity) I'm long a S&P 500 fund, MidCap growth fund & Fid Growth. Just $$$ cost averaging into those 401k positions, though I took a loan out of the account on 2/10/20 - to reduce market exposure and increasing my money going back into the market monthly.
And those puts just keep leaking - but I have some that go out to March 2021, they are up and I think they regain value lost in the last month {of course I do, I'm committed to swimming upstream into the market current}

[Anastasis 23,464]

Lots of overlap with others here.

ABT, BYND, DIS, MSFT, KO, VZ, SBUX, SPY, XOM. 401k is now 26% back in play, heavy towards large caps, and currently @ -4.9% YTD, +4% 1Yr.  

[Anastasis 23,464]

46 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Just $$$ cost averaging into those 401k positions, though I took a loan out of the account on 2/10/20 - to reduce market exposure and increasing my money going back into the market monthly.

So that's an interesting way to force yourself to dollar cost average back in on a regular basis. How long is the loan?

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,975]

Seems like a way to avoid frequent trading problems from pulling money out of funds and putting it back in too quickly.

[Goofyboy 3,269]

I’m long in bunch of funds an a very small position in my employer that I bought a month ago when it bottomed out.

[Wally Fairway 5,541]

25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

So that's an interesting way to force yourself to dollar cost average back in on a regular basis. How long is the loan?

4 year term, but repayable at any time - the loan earns 5%, so better than any bond alternative, and other than cash no real reduce exposure in the 401k. There is risk in taking the loan, but I'm over 59 1/2, so no penalty if not repaid. 
Do not take those loans without a full understanding of the possible consequences; and understanding that you do not control all of the variables (like employment status)