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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3024

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Someone explain this to me. Seems like they would be negatively affected by both the slow economy and cheap gas. 

Elon has built a cult following. Millenials love him. It was the number one most bought stock on Robinhood for a bit I believe (Pre Corona). The product is excellent (I’ve driven every model) but the valuation is nuts...I wonder sometimes if some retail investors believe Space X is part of it...I scratch my head also...especially on days like today.

There’s also no doubt it’s the future of transportation (not oil dependent) but you know the other big autos are prepping for entry...so competition will get fierce at some point.

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Baconboy

Baconboy 135

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, RCRanger03 said:

What are everyone's positions right now?

I'm long on GOOGL, MSFT, DIS, MCD

I'm short on UAVS, DECN (stonksssssss bag holding until May 8th at which point I'll be rich or they'll be worthless)

VSTO, KR, ZM, TTWO, EA, HON, TEVA, LH, XOM, CL (fabuloso!), and CLX (though contemplating selling a portion before their earnings call on Friday - sell on the news and whatnot)

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15378

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, The People’s Elbow said:

Bed Bath and Beyond Announces store closure extension and they’re up 20%. lol ok 

Sell the Fear of the Unknown.  Buy the Fear of the Reality?

 

or 

 

Sell the Fear of the Gun, Buy the Fear of the Bullet?  

Edited by Trey3216
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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15107

Posted
Posted

Why is this thread suddenly bullish on putting money into the market? The future is extremely uncertain right now. Just because states are saying they are opening up?

We have the fed propping up investment bonds, payrolls, etc. They can only do this for awhile longer, maybe one more round of srimulus. Things are not going back to normal for a long time, and corporate losses are going to mount, leading eventually to layoffs and a recession. I’m pretty sure we are headed for a deep recession. What am I missing?

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5590

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Why is this thread suddenly bullish on putting money into the market? The future is extremely uncertain right now. Just because states are saying they are opening up?

We have the fed propping up investment bonds, payrolls, etc. They can only do this for awhile longer, maybe one more round of srimulus. Things are not going back to normal for a long time, and corporate losses are going to mount, leading eventually to layoffs and a recession. I’m pretty sure we are headed for a deep recession. What am I missing?

IMO there are 2 main causes:
- confusion about the economy direction being directly correlated to COVID rates; the market went down when COVID rates went up, inverse is true in the market (until it isn't)
- FOMO (see history for examples), just as valid/invalid now as is has been in the past

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Blotto

Blotto 23585

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Why is this thread suddenly bullish on putting money into the market? The future is extremely uncertain right now. Just because states are saying they are opening up?

We have the fed propping up investment bonds, payrolls, etc. They can only do this for awhile longer, maybe one more round of srimulus. Things are not going back to normal for a long time, and corporate losses are going to mount, leading eventually to layoffs and a recession. I’m pretty sure we are headed for a deep recession. What am I missing?

Nothing. But markets in major corrections never go straight down. Right now optimism of the country reopening and the Brrrr machine are driving the market up. Even Q1 earnings will only capture the beginning of the carnage. By the end of Q2 earnings, the ugly realities should be dickslapping the market pretty regularly. Hell TSLA may even fall to $1500 by the end of the year. 

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Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders 1370

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Why is this thread suddenly bullish on putting money into the market? The future is extremely uncertain right now. Just because states are saying they are opening up?

We have the fed propping up investment bonds, payrolls, etc. They can only do this for awhile longer, maybe one more round of srimulus. Things are not going back to normal for a long time, and corporate losses are going to mount, leading eventually to layoffs and a recession. I’m pretty sure we are headed for a deep recession. What am I missing?

I think I'm going to wait at least to Q2 earnings to wade back in.  I don't see much out there that I don't see being cheaper later. Granted I missed this bump from March lows, but whatever. 

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Tailgate

Tailgate 3024

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Why is this thread suddenly bullish on putting money into the market? The future is extremely uncertain right now. Just because states are saying they are opening up?

We have the fed propping up investment bonds, payrolls, etc. They can only do this for awhile longer, maybe one more round of srimulus. Things are not going back to normal for a long time, and corporate losses are going to mount, leading eventually to layoffs and a recession. I’m pretty sure we are headed for a deep recession. What am I missing?

I’m long on the market and am balanced well enough where down turns don’t freak me out (too much). And, I’ve got eight to ten more years before I retire....if I can force myself to....so I’m fully confident the market will perform like it has historically. I’ll ride the bumps...have before...and am only actively playing around during the quarantine with some small plays...and they’ve all worked out so far (knock on wood).

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49378

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, 52-80 said:

long AAPL, BRKB, BYND, NFLX, GLDM, VHT, VOOV, SKYY, MA, [my gay ass employer],

bagholding short on small-cap index

rest in money market funds, treasury funds, cash

some gambling-sized puts on ANF, GPS, LYV, SNAP

What's the news helping retail stocks like ANF and GPS today??

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12107

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

What's the news helping retail stocks like ANF and GPS today??

I think it had to be speculative... the ‘reopening’ and all is going to somehow make us all rush to buy new distressed jeans and a pair of khakis.... even if it’s only curbside pickup.

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52-80

52-80 19271

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

I think it had to be speculative... the ‘reopening’ and all is going to somehow make us all rush to buy new distressed jeans and a pair of khakis.... even if it’s only curbside pickup.

that sort of inventory should be worth ten cents to the dollar wholesaled out to Ross.  imagine trying to sell winter sweatshirts with A&F on the front in the summer time

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Baconboy

Baconboy 135

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Why is this thread suddenly bullish on putting money into the market? The future is extremely uncertain right now. Just because states are saying they are opening up?

We have the fed propping up investment bonds, payrolls, etc. They can only do this for awhile longer, maybe one more round of srimulus. Things are not going back to normal for a long time, and corporate losses are going to mount, leading eventually to layoffs and a recession. I’m pretty sure we are headed for a deep recession. What am I missing?

I haven't sensed this thread turning bullish. There are still stocks to be bought even when headed into a recession, especially in a unique circumstance like this. ZM is a prime example. They've gone from 10M daily users in December to 300M in April. Not all of those users are paying customers, but it's safe to assume a good percentage are. Would I buy it now? Maybe not, but I'm still going to hold it to see what happens next. 

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hornbri

hornbri 1417

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

One third of the S&P 500 has already reported and 90% withdrew guidance.  That is  astonishing.

Oh, and the big bounce from the lows... it's pretty much just five stocks carrying the water.

 

SPX%20most%20concentrated%20ever_0.jpg?i

Once (if) a crack ever forms in the hedge fund hotels, it's all over.

Interesting given today Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, and Microsoft were all down on the day, Apple was flat and the S&P was up 1.5%. 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14624

Posted
Posted

Wanted to post again from the Retail Front.  A lot has happened and I watched to catch up.

You've seen the reports of meat plants closing.  That was what I predicted and was my biggest fear all along.  What worries Big Food and Big Retail is nobody knows shit.  One day it's "Everything is fine, nothing to see here," and the next day the plant is closed.  (Tyson, Conagra, Smithfield, etc. are all the same on this.)  The workers at these places are a high number of undocumented workers and they won't say shit.  They'll show up to work every day until they contaminate the plant to critical mass and the whole thing is shut down.  That's why calling is so hard.  80% of the capacity could shut down tomorrow or nothing could close.  We have no idea.  Walmart had a store in Colorado closed.  They had three workers who died and a bunch of other cases.  What got my intention is WMT didn't close on it's own.  Health department shut them down.  We've seen this with other retailers.  Stores and DC's suddenly closed for "capacity" but they're open in a week or something.  

This was always my biggest fear.  True, America has enough food between the retail and food service channels but the point of origin is the same.  If that point shuts down, this situation gets EXTREMELY perilous.  We're talking legit food shortages here.  The same levels of consolidation have gone in that industry as anywhere else.  There are fewer but larger plants.  It only takes a few plants to shut down to really impact things.  At a macro level, there is only about 2-3 weeks of product in the system after the plant.  If the plants shut down for 2-3 weeks, that means we're out regardless of channel.  (This is also a problem upstream.  If the farmers don't have plants to unload their stock on, they'll take it in the ass.)

I'm worried about the social unrest if we have widespread food shortages.

Big Packaged Food has managed to somewhat recover.  Most brands have reduced assortment, allowing them to focus on what they have.  Sales have generally leveled off but are still elevated.  Stimulus money really helped as well as unemployment finally making it's way to people.

Someone mentioned Gap and other apparel places earlier.  I can't fucking imagine the upside there.  Currently, there is no apparel movement at all going on.  You should have spring hitting and winter/fall being liquidated to your TJ Maxx's of the world.  That's not happening, either.  You also have summer landing shortly.  That sure as shit isn't going to sell.  The vast majority of these apparel companies are leveraged up to their asses.  Not sure how they get out of this.  Basic white women are going to cry when J Crew goes banktrupt.

Here's a hot tip for you shorts.  Look at the trucking industry.  Something like 90% of all trucking companies are 10 trucks or less.  (Most trucks, though, are still at the big companies.)  Those small companies have basically been sidelined over the past two months.  They need revenue bad and gas is cheap right now.  They'll undercut the big guys hard and prices will be a race to the bottom.  There is already excess capacity in the market right now beginning a few weeks ago.  

 

 

 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19228

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Here's a hot tip for you shorts.  Look at the trucking industry.  Something like 90% of all trucking companies are 10 trucks or less.  (Most trucks, though, are still at the big companies.)  Those small companies have basically been sidelined over the past two months.  They need revenue bad and gas is cheap right now.  They'll undercut the big guys hard and prices will be a race to the bottom.  There is already excess capacity in the market right now beginning a few weeks ago.  

 

 

 

I appreciate your updates as they give a good behind the curtain look at how fragile everything is and most if not all of what you have posted over the last couple of months has played out pretty close to the way you explained it.

Based on the above, I did a fast screen on finviz for trucking companies.  Much to my surprise most of them are not carrying a ton of debt.  Seven of them have debt / equity ratios higher than 0.5.  A lot of my past research was on O&G and O&G service companies and most of them would kill to have a D/E ratio that low.  Maybe it's just perspective?

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52-80

52-80 19271

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I appreciate your updates as they give a good behind the curtain look at how fragile everything is and most if not all of what you have posted over the last couple of months has played out pretty close to the way you explained it.

Based on the above, I did a fast screen on finviz for trucking companies.  Much to my surprise most of them are not carrying a ton of debt.  Seven of them have debt / equity ratios higher than 0.5.  A lot of my past research was on O&G and O&G service companies and most of them would kill to have a D/E ratio that low.  Maybe it's just perspective?

dont need to borrow if youre not growing , imo

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Here's a hot tip for you shorts.  Look at the trucking industry.  Something like 90% of all trucking companies are 10 trucks or less.  (Most trucks, though, are still at the big companies.)  Those small companies have basically been sidelined over the past two months.  They need revenue bad and gas is cheap right now.  They'll undercut the big guys hard and prices will be a race to the bottom.  There is already excess capacity in the market right now beginning a few weeks ago. 

I have a buddy who drives a truck for a railroad in PA. He said that they are starting to stack containers in the yard and that's always a bad sign. Product just isn't coming in.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14624

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Eastwood said:

I have a buddy who drives a truck for a railroad in PA. He said that they are starting to stack containers in the yard and that's always a bad sign. Product just isn't coming in.

Yep.  General Merchandise (GM) volume disappeared overnight and hasn't come back since.

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Blotto

Blotto 23585

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Someone mentioned Gap and other apparel places earlier.  I can't fucking imagine the upside there.  Currently, there is no apparel movement at all going on.  You should have spring hitting and winter/fall being liquidated to your TJ Maxx's of the world.  That's not happening, either.  You also have summer landing shortly.  That sure as shit isn't going to sell.  The vast majority of these apparel companies are leveraged up to their asses.  Not sure how they get out of this.  Basic white women are going to cry when J Crew goes banktrupt.

I spent some time this weekend looking for etfs that focus on the retail industry, in particular discretionary stocks like apparel. But any of the larger cap etfs on retail all seem to be disproportionately weighted towards  AMZN, HD, and other companies that aren't pure play discretionary spending, so those aren't of interest to me. Was hoping to find an apparel ETF that might have rebounded some before the bloodletting occurs in mass, but sadly it doesnt seem to exist.

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Incredulity

Incredulity 11683

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yep.  General Merchandise (GM) volume disappeared overnight and hasn't come back since.

Walmart could sell a bunch of stuff if they would actually stock the goddamn store.

 

Had to stop at one today and it looked like a refugee camp.  
 

Haha, I know that’s always the case, this post is offered in relative terms.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19228

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

I spent some time this weekend looking for etfs that focus on the retail industry, in particular discretionary stocks like apparel. But any of the larger cap etfs on retail all seem to be disproportionately weighted towards  AMZN, HD, and other companies that aren't pure play discretionary spending, so those aren't of interest to me. Was hoping to find an apparel ETF that might have rebounded some before the bloodletting occurs in mass, but sadly it doesnt seem to exist.

XRT is probably the closest.  It still has the AMZNs and WMTs but the largest holdings are only 2.5 - 3% of the overall fund.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54468

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Here's a hot tip for you shorts.  Look at the trucking industry.  Something like 90% of all trucking companies are 10 trucks or less.  (Most trucks, though, are still at the big companies.)  Those small companies have basically been sidelined over the past two months.  They need revenue bad and gas is cheap right now.  They'll undercut the big guys hard and prices will be a race to the bottom.  There is already excess capacity in the market right now beginning a few weeks ago.  

There's no short ETF for the transportation sector unfortunately.  

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54468

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

I spent some time this weekend looking for etfs that focus on the retail industry, in particular discretionary stocks like apparel. But any of the larger cap etfs on retail all seem to be disproportionately weighted towards  AMZN, HD, and other companies that aren't pure play discretionary spending, so those aren't of interest to me. Was hoping to find an apparel ETF that might have rebounded some before the bloodletting occurs in mass, but sadly it doesnt seem to exist.

This one's kind of fun: https://www.proshares.com/funds/clix_index.html

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5590

Posted
Posted

tidbit from a WSJ article today

Quote

“Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Catholicism without hell,” Howard Marks, director of investment fund Oaktree Capital Management LP, said in a letter to shareholders this month, writing that “Markets work best when participants have a healthy fear of loss.”

 

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