Markets still falling like whoa

[Tailgate 3022]

Always nice to hear his simple advice of just capturing the S&P 500. Buy American.

[Wally Fairway 5571]

On 5/1/2020 at 3:01 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Someone post the patient Bear.  This one is gruntled. 

[52-80 19205]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19209]

Futures opened up weak af.

[Anastasis 23480]

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Futures opened up weak af.

Gonna be close to going back to all cash in the trading account if this shit holds. 

[BevoSwag 272]

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Futures opened up weak af.

Yeah.  They were down about 20 pts earlier today.  Now down about 400.  Probably a lot like Friday repeat on Monday.  I wonder if we will see those 1k point dives again this month?

[Wally Fairway 5571]

47 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

Yeah.  They were down about 20 pts earlier today.  Now down about 400.  Probably a lot like Friday repeat on Monday.  I wonder if we will see those 1k point dives again this month?

Just in case anyone was wondering

[workswithseed 2108]

59 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Futures opened up weak af.

Good thing I bought 8 uvxy Friday

[BevoSwag 272]

They are now down only around 284.  Unless something drastic happens overnight I think it will be a normalized calm opening.  I hope.

[Blotto 23560]

my amateur guess is a sustained gradual selling dynamic for a couple of weeks as the realities of the current economic fuckery take hold. Missed earnings reports in the market, missed lease payments in both residential/commercial markets, missed paychecks to 30,000,000 consumers. Now after a few weeks, if the gradual reopening of the country doesn't result in a spike of new Covid cases, I think the market reverses again. If there is a surge in Covid cases, look out below. 

[aggie08 21508]

55 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Just in case anyone was wondering

Wally's bringing back the breaker spreadsheet...that can't be good.

[Anastasis 23480]

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Wally's bringing back the breaker spreadsheet...that can't be good.

[Parliament 14272]

He's way premature with it.  

[bluto 4934]

Only 140 down now, shit will be 400 in the green by sunrise

[The People’s Elbow 707]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

This. I’m ready for the TVIX ride. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Down a point.  Think we fuck around and get sub 2600 in May.  Then we have data that shows even when you open, people aren’t out spending and companies can’t break even...falls a bit more.  Next it can recover a little if cases don’t spike... or really fall as someone above noted.  
 

Year end 2700 would be great imo

[52-80 19205]

5 hours ago, Blotto said:

my amateur guess is a sustained gradual selling dynamic for a couple of weeks as the realities of the current economic fuckery take hold. Missed earnings reports in the market, missed lease payments in both residential/commercial markets, missed paychecks to 30,000,000 consumers. Now after a few weeks, if the gradual reopening of the country doesn't result in a spike of new Covid cases, I think the market reverses again. If there is a surge in Covid cases, look out below. 

yup.  my theory is everyone did the opposite of being 'forward looking' - they needed to be sledgehammered in the face with 2 Qs of poor earnings to realize the panic

 

 

[52-80 19205]

ive decided writing calls is satisfyingly less-neurotic than buying puts and hoping for shit to tank

[Wally Fairway 5571]

22 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

ive decided writing calls is satisfyingly less-neurotic than buying puts and hoping for shit to tank

good luck, it is also riskier if the JPow brrrr machine kicks in

[Parliament 14272]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

ive decided writing calls is satisfyingly less-neurotic than buying puts and hoping for shit to tank

Yeah until the market rallies and they call get exercised.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Parliament

[Eastwood 4394]

8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Yeah until the market rallies and you they call get exercised.

Happened to me with AAL. Sold a put of AAL that ended up getting exercised, so I was holding 100 shares that was down out the gate. Have clawed back the losses by selling calls that would break even for me if exercised, but the calls either expiring worthless or closing out the call to take profit has softened the blow by a couple hundred dollars. I've definitely learned a lot about the mechanics and strategies over the past 2 months. This market has been a real teaching experience.

[Parliament 14272]

You and me both, Brother.  Following and dabbling in the market has replaced sports for me.  Vauguard does not let you sell a naked call, which bugged me 3 weeks ago.  Now?  Not so bugged.

[Wally Fairway 5571]

10 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

Happened to me with AAL. Sold a put of AAL that ended up getting exercised, so I was holding 100 shares that was down out the gate. Have clawed back the losses by selling calls that would break even for me if exercised, but the calls either expiring worthless or closing out the call to take profit has softened the blow by a couple hundred dollars. I've definitely learned a lot about the mechanics and strategies over the past 2 months. This market has been a real teaching experience.

Yup, you can read and practice but nothing really teaches like actual trading.
Someone posted that the maximum loss on buying puts is the purchase price - that is correct in theory, but in the actual world, if you a buying uncovered puts and they are in the money on expiration and you don't have do not exercise instructions with your broker; then the brokerage can exercise the option and potentially put your account into a margin position with margin loans and potentially you are on the hook for losses if the stock price falls. This is why I try to not hold to close, unless it is a covered position, which in today's brokerage world having to lose shares to a put isn't expensive as there is little transaction costs in buying the stock back if I want to hold it again.

[Wally Fairway 5571]

10 hours ago, bluto said:

Only 140 down now, shit will be 400 in the green by sunrise

I'm shocked that I didn't jinx it right into at 1-2% up open

[52-80 19205]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Yeah until the market rallies and they call get exercised.

i see it as forced profit taking , which i might not necessarily have done just holding onto the underlying stock

if its a volatility driven temporary rally --- like its been --- then thats an even better thing

and if its a leggy market wide recovery, then thats also good for my other long term investments

[bernorange 8362]

On 4/27/2020 at 8:22 PM, Goofyboy said:

So we need to quietly start buying meat and freezing it?

On 4/28/2020 at 10:01 AM, Aqua Buddha said:

Would not be a terrible idea.

Quote

Tyson Foods Inc expects to continue idling meat plants and slowing production because of the new coronavirus, the company said on Monday, signaling more disruptions to the U.S. food supply.
...
“We have and expect to continue to face slowdowns and temporary idling of production facilities from team member shortages or choices we make to ensure operational safety,” Tyson said in a statement.

Tyson warned prior to Trump’s order that millions of pounds of beef, pork and chicken would vanish from U.S. grocery stores because of plant shutdowns. Its chairman said the U.S. “food supply chain is breaking” as farmers have been euthanizing livestock because they lost markets for them.

Tyson projected meat sales will fall in the second half of the year as restaurants and other food outlets suffer as consumers stay at home during the pandemic. The company said it does not expect chicken prices will improve for the rest of its fiscal year.

“The volume increases in retail have not been sufficient to offset the losses in foodservice and as a result, we expect decreases in volumes in the second half of fiscal 2020,” Tyson said. ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tyson-foods-results/tyson-foods-says-coronavirus-will-continue-to-limit-u-s-meat-supply-idUSKBN22G1DI

USCCheerleader.gif

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by bernorange

[Wally Fairway 5571]

JPow about to crank that Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr machine into hyper-overdrive

Quote

New York Fed Releases Additional Information on Primary Market and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities in Preparation for Series of May Launches

 

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2020/20200501

[BLKNSTY 289]

JPow about to crank that Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr machine into hyper-overdrive

New York Fed Releases Additional Information on Primary Market and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities in Preparation for Series of May Launches

 
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2020/20200501

What are these ETFs? HYG, LQD, JNK?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[52-80 19205]

19 minutes ago, BLKNSTY said:

 
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/markets/2020/20200501

What are these ETFs? HYG, LQD, JNK?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

USO.  We're all getting rich

[WBT 20642]

Wait, we finished up on the day?  Brrrrrr

[Schulz2.0 28992]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

Wait, we finished up on the day?  Brrrrrr

Seriously.

[hornbri 1400]

14 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 Then we have data that shows even when you open, people aren’t out spending and companies can’t break even

If this weekend driving around was any indication people will be out spending money as soon as they can. Seriously there were a ton of people out and about this weekend.  I would consider Austin one of the more cautious places when I read places like this site and reddit...

[Anastasis 23480]

Went for a walk, came back and looks like a brrrrrrt happened to close the day?

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

38 minutes ago, hornbri said:

If this weekend driving around was any indication people will be out spending money as soon as they can. Seriously there were a ton of people out and about this weekend.  I would consider Austin one of the more cautious places when I read places like this site and reddit...

Aren't restaurants 25% capacity?  It's very difficult to break even at 25% capacity.  People being out and being out in numbers to sustain businesses are two completely different things. 

[hornbri 1400]

3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Aren't restaurants 25% capacity?  It's very difficult to break even at 25% capacity.  People being out and being out in numbers to sustain businesses are two completely different things. 

I am saying once it goes above 25% they will quickly fill. It is not going to be a example of places open and no one coming. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

7 minutes ago, hornbri said:

I am saying once it goes above 25% they will quickly fill. It is not going to be a example of places open and no one coming. 

I'm saying as a physician, I just don't see how you properly socially distance and allow more than 50-60% capacity.  I'm invested in a good chunk of restaurants.  Most are just saying fuck it at 25% and even at 50% the idea is to only keep the carryout going so they can keep some key staff paid and employed but the entire waitstaff is furloughed and looks to be staying that way.  Restaurants make small margins as it is - if they do make great margins it's often due to the bar portion of the restaurants which are closed for the foreseeable future. 

Edit:  and Austin is probably more cautious by Texas standards in terms of opening.  If compared to most metro areas in the country I'd say Austin is well ahead with opening what they have.  Not knocking it, just saying factually they're more lenient. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[hornbri 1400]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

I'm saying as a physician, I just don't see how you properly socially distance and allow more than 50-60% capacity.  I'm invested in a good chunk of restaurants.  Most are just saying fuck it at 25% and even at 50% the idea is to only keep the carryout going so they can keep some key staff paid and employed but the entire waitstaff is furloughed and looks to be staying that way.  Restaurants make small margins as it is - if they do make great margins it's often due to the bar portion of the restaurants which are closed for the foreseeable future. 

You are moving the goal posts. What I was responding to is when you said " Then we have data that shows even when you open, people aren’t out spending and companies can’t break even"

You did not say "even when you open at limited capacity" 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

1 minute ago, hornbri said:

You are moving the goal posts. What I was responding to is when you said " Then we have data that shows even when you open, people aren’t out spending and companies can’t break even"

You did not say "even when you open at limited capacity" 

Holy shit, I fucking assume they're going to open at limited capacity.  I deal with this shit every fucking day.   I assumed no dumb motherfucker is assuming 'opening' means 100% capacity.  STFU with 'moving the goalposts'.  I live and breathe this shit every day. 

[washparkhorn 9939]

TLSA had a strong day (+8.5%) after a Morgan Stanley analyst boosted 12-month price target to $680.

After the report, the stock moved higher to $761.

Math - who needs it. 

[hornbri 1400]

10 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Holy shit, I fucking assume they're going to open at limited capacity.  I deal with this shit every fucking day.   I assumed no dumb motherfucker is assuming 'opening' means 100% capacity.  STFU with 'moving the goalposts'.  I live and breathe this shit every day. 

what the fuck ever, you clearly were trying to say the economy is going to be shitty even when it's open because no one is going to be out spending money. You are not in the fucking covid thread you are in the stock market thread. 

[Blotto 23560]

6 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

TLSA had a strong day (+8.5%) after a Morgan Stanley analyst boosted 12-month price target to $680.

After the report, the stock moved higher to $761.

Math - who needs it. 

Elon will probably tweet that a price of $680 is too low, and TSLA will be right back to sniffing $900 in a day or two. 

[Anastasis 23480]

25 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Elon will probably tweet that a price of $680 is too low, and TSLA will be right back to sniffing $900 in a day or two. 

From your lips to Elon's ears.  I took up a small position after his tweet took it's toll and would love to hit my $800 exit or more before the end of the week. Seriously though, not sure how the SEC hasn't fucking hammered him again. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Anastasis

[Trey3216 15350]

45 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

From your lips to Elon's ears.  I took up a small position after his tweet took it's toll and would love to hit my $800 exit or more before the end of the week. Seriously though, not sure how the SEC hasn't fucking hammered him again. 

Do a 750/850 bull/call spread 

[Aqua Buddha 14599]

4 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I'm saying as a physician, I just don't see how you properly socially distance and allow more than 50-60% capacity.  I'm invested in a good chunk of restaurants.  Most are just saying fuck it at 25% and even at 50% the idea is to only keep the carryout going so they can keep some key staff paid and employed but the entire waitstaff is furloughed and looks to be staying that way.  Restaurants make small margins as it is - if they do make great margins it's often due to the bar portion of the restaurants which are closed for the foreseeable future. 

Edit:  and Austin is probably more cautious by Texas standards in terms of opening.  If compared to most metro areas in the country I'd say Austin is well ahead with opening what they have.  Not knocking it, just saying factually they're more lenient. 

This.

50% capacity for a restaurant doesn't work.  Not even close.  Also, you can open up everything 100% tomorrow and no one will go.  There is zero public confidence and 30% unemployment.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19209]

Karen and Brett will go.  You can bet your ass they will go.

[BevoSwag 272]

I'm really starting to feel better about the market today and this coming from a guy who basically sold 75% of portfolio around early April.  I think I actually heard the number of air travelers is climbing, no longer declining, and that Starbucks in China is doing well with a huge percentage now open and just now learned that China auto sales in April outpaced April a year ago.  

When I compare my eagerness to buy back in I have to balance that with what Buffet said, or didn't say.  Still on the fence but warming up.

 

[hornbri 1400]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This.

50% capacity for a restaurant doesn't work.  Not even close.  Also, you can open up everything 100% tomorrow and no one will go.  There is zero public confidence and 30% unemployment.  

I think everyone agrees a restaurant cannot make it on 50% capacity. 
 

The question is will anyone go, and I think a lot of people are going to be itching to spend money and get out. We are already seeing it with the slightest hint of opening back up. 

[Okie State 3821]

Yeah not sure how you can say nobody will go if places are open. Places like Home Depot and Lowe's have been absolutely packed this entire time. Plenty are itching to get out and socialize. I mean a huge percentage of the population doesn't even think anything should be shut down at all.

[Wally Fairway 5571]

8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Karen and Brett will go.  You can bet your ass they will go.

Michigan is full of people who will go, hell they don't even wear masks. And when the 2nd want comes they will take no responsibility, and blame that on the Governor.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Even when you think a city or state is full of people that can’t wait to go to restaurants, there is still a large percentage of people that won’t. Either they are afraid of coronavirus, afraid of spending their money, don’t have the money, or other reasons. Unfortunately every restaurants can’t survive if that any people stay home.   Now if only 25% of restaurants reopen, possibly those 25% can survive with that limited customer base.