Markets still falling like whoa

[0xdeadbeef 1,651]

I'm hearing whispers and rumors coming out of a number of big tech companies about possible layoffs that are pointing toward catastrophically bad Q2 numbers. Maybe people are just speculating about what they think may happen but I'm getting concerned because I'm hearing things from a number of directions.   Its feeling like there is going to be a huge number of white-collar professionals getting laid off very soon.   

Between the Q2 results that are soon to start to be announced and a probable uptick COVid-19 in numbers due to re-openings, my spidy-sense is telling me to get out. 

 

 

[babysdaddy 2,727]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

the inflation-adjusted P/E is damn near historical levels.  not 16, 17, but 26 27 for the S&P 500.  that fucking bubble has got to pop sometimes. 

 

 

I don't think it does.  If asset prices are a function of interest rates and interest rates are in the basement (and, imo, not going to materially rise....again. ever.), then P/E rations should be at historical levels and maybe should be higher. We get a weakening of Covid or treatment or vaccine then we've got elevate PE multiples, economic activity returning, and a fucking $3-5T tailwind of stimulus spending. 

[4thgenhorn 38]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

BYND train is the new TSLA train.  #choochoo

I’m lucky to have my ticket on this ride. Selling one third. 

[BrazilHorn 6,628]

46 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm hearing whispers and rumors coming out of a number of big tech companies about possible layoffs that are pointing toward catastrophically bad Q2 numbers. Maybe people are just speculating about what they think may happen but I'm getting concerned because I'm hearing things from a number of directions.   Its feeling like there is going to be a huge number of white-collar professionals getting laid off very soon.   

Between the Q2 results that are soon to start to be announced and a probable uptick COVid-19 in numbers due to re-openings, my spidy-sense is telling me to get out. 

 

 

AirBnb just announced 25% of staff. I see a lot of mid-size SaaS companies on the brink as well. Companies that were operating at a loss but hoping to "make it up in volume" are realizing that the volume isn't there and they don't have the cash to weather a protracted storm. Going to be interesting. In past there has been acquisitions occur coming out of economic downturns, curious to see what happens in this space coming out of this one.

[4thgenhorn 38]

I’m hoping for a pop in PTON tomorrow. Chart looks good...hard to believe they won’t report big growth tonight. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,600]

Disney's park strategy is horrible.  You have to wear a mask in swampy Orlando and they're going to temperature screen everybody.  So, if you and your family make the trip and Johnny pops a slight fever, you risk losing the whole trip.

I keep saying this but you can open everything tomorrow but until there's more confidence in public health, nothing matters.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Aqua Buddha

[The People’s Elbow 707]

33 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

I’m hoping for a pop in PTON tomorrow. Chart looks good...hard to believe they won’t report big growth tonight. 

This feels to me like pre-earnings blow up and even or down day-after-earnings. 

Edited May 6, 2020 by The People’s Elbow

[Incredulity 11,682]

33 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Disney's park strategy is horrible.  You have to wear a mask in swampy Orlando and they're going to temperature screen everybody.  So, if you and your family make the trip and Johnny pops a slight fever, you risk losing the whole trip.

I keep saying this but you can open everything tomorrow but until there's more confidence in public health, nothing matters.

I think you underestimate the draw of The Mouse. 

Look at what people put up with at that place under "normal" conditions.

I think it will be a slower burn than just a flick of switch, but after a few weeks it will be full.

[washparkhorn 9,939]

In California, we have gone to face coverings, not masks. Much cooler. The idea is prevent YOU spreading it to others (asymptomatic carriers), not to protect you from acquiring the illness. 

[Anastasis 23,481]

3 hours ago, workswithseed said:

Apparently I should have bought sbux.

Why?  I bought some in mid march and it is only up 15%, and is underperforming SPY I picked up around same time by a % or so. 

[HoffaJimmy 316]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

BYND train is the new TSLA train.  #choochoo

 

Ha, good pop. Who knew you could shred cardboard and put enough salt on it for the mouth breathers to think it's real meat. High Blood pressure and cholesterol for all! 

[4thgenhorn 38]

4 minutes ago, HoffaJimmy said:

 

Ha, good pop. Who knew you could shred cardboard and put enough salt on it for the mouth breathers to think it's real meat. High Blood pressure and cholesterol for all! 

I’ve never tried the food and have a freezer full of beef. Just seems like a high growth space...and it feels like I’m back at the craps table, which is always nice. 
 

im sure in time they’ll make foods that don’t kill u as much, and are better for green house gasses. 

[HoffaJimmy 316]

5 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

I’ve never tried the food and have a freezer full of beef. Just seems like a high growth space...and it feels like I’m back at the craps table, which is always nice. 
 

im sure in time they’ll make foods that don’t kill u as much, and are better for green house gasses. 

 

100%. I wasn't talking this thread specific as eating that shit and making coin investing in said company are two totally different things. I was more talking about the annoying friends that say it tastes the same or is better for you but don't realize they are eating 3 times the amount of salt they would if they had a real hamburger. 

 

[closetohumping 17,456]

Did any of you bother to pick up wayfair oh about a month ago?

[workswithseed 2,109]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Why?  I bought some in mid march and it is only up 15%, and is underperforming SPY I picked up around same time by a % or so. 

I looked at it this week and thought about buying some. I thought didn't and it had a good rise that I missed out. Oh well, I'll live.

Edited May 6, 2020 by workswithseed

[Anastasis 23,481]

27 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

I looked at it this week and thought about buying some. I thought didn't and it had a good rise that I missed out. Oh well, I'll live.

I've been thinking about getting out of it myself. 

[horn4life 3,780]

Guess I'll start checking in here.  I've been cautious as hell and done pretty good the last month I bought Shell RDS.A and Parsley Energy, PE and sold both at good profits. but have like 84% cash. Definitely left a good deal of cash in SPCE,  PE and CHUY when I sold them taking profits and worrying about what I feel will at some point be a real market capitulation.   I am very curious to see what YETI does before the open.  I rode them up, but I kept looking at the 60+% gain since I put them in my watchlist and just felt like Elon Musk about them.  Basically made a little money on them on the way up, and now I am thinking that they are just too damn close to their peak for where I think the economy is headed.  I was going to buy a $35 put for tomorrow earlier today when the stock was top side of $28, so since I didn't it will likely miss earning badly and actually fall... instead of rise on shit earnings... 

LYV Live nation is another one I do not understand beyond optimism.  How does a company that makes money from promoting concerts produce revenue any time soon in this environment?  They got a bounce when they negotiated a fix to their quarterly credit renegotiation issues, then a bounce when Liberty Media paid a $130 million bill to preserve their holdings value, then a last bounce off some sort of Saudi purchase of like 4% of the stock.  Maybe I am missing something, but where is the revenue gong to come from? I actually like their business model, but not in the next 12 months.

Overall here is how I see the market, and I heard somebody else say nearly the same thing on Bloomberg the other day.  The people that did not sell and held still remember the value of their stocks in January.  They have hope that they can get back there. So they sit and wait for the buyers to come.  The buyers are waiting for the market to fall before they jump back in, so it's sort of a fragile stalemate.  Fragile being the key word.  All I know is how the heck is the market back to where it is off the lows with what we have ahead of us?

While there has been steady traffic at Home Depot and Lowes over the last weeks, they have been one of the few games in town for stuck at home homeowners like myself.  I also did see the increase in Austin in traffic this Saturday, but I see no way that it translates into even 25% capacity restaurants with no idea of who is or is not infected?   You need packed restaurants for most of these folks to have much of a chance of long term survival. My assumption is that there is a false optimism, and entrenched hope on the PAST value of the stocks some are holding onto seeing them bounce back some.  The problem for me is I see a lot more potential for negative news than positive news at this point. And eventually this market is going to trade in a more data driven manner and it's going to be ugly.  Guess we will all know in about 6 weeks.  June 19 put options currently sound about right in my head. Probably on the 18th some bill will pass and there will be a big bump up and then crash the 22nd... 😉

[UTexasFight 9,520]

Speaking of “some big bill”... what construction-type companies stand to benefit if a big infrastructure bill passes?

[Blotto 23,565]

13 hours ago, 52-80 said:

BYND train is the new TSLA train.  #choochoo

 

13 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Hardly. BYND over the past year just looks like a downtrend. I bought some sub $100 but I don't see TSLA type upside here.

I would say its pretty similar to TSLA in that nobody appears to give a fuck what its valuation is. Yeah, I get its a trendy name and presumably a decent enough product, but at what point do people care how out of whack their market cap is. They are in the business of selling food. There are pretty well established valuation metrics for how those companies are valued. Even if their stock price doesn't increase  at all for the next 5 years, there is no way they can increase revenue & profits enough to justify their valuation. 

In their most recent quarterly report, BYND had revenues of ~$90 million and a profit of $1.8 million. Their market cap is $7.8 billion
In their most recent quarterly report, Kellog had revenues of ~$3.5 billion and a profit of $347 million. Their market cap is $22 billion
In their most recent quarterly report, Tyson had revenues of ~$11 billion and a profit of $364 million. Their market cap is ~$20 billion

Also of note, 50% of BYNDs revenue is from US food service/restaurants. I'm sure a decent portion of those customers are large chains that kept a drive-through open, but the largest single component of growth in today's report (US food service) will take it in the ass pretty badly starting next qtr and continuing until we get this covid shit figured out. 

All that being said, as volatile as it is, its a fine stock to trade. I just wouldn't count on it being a core part of anyone's portfolio for years to come. 

[Wally Fairway 5,573]

Where does today's unemployment number come in?

3.2 million? 2.6? 4.1???

it doesn't matter, is already priced in

[Fudge Nuggets 19,211]

6 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Speaking of “some big bill”... what construction-type companies stand to benefit if a big infrastructure bill passes?

CAT, ACM, MLM, VMC, NUE

Edited May 7, 2020 by Fudge Nuggets

[BevoSwag 272]

2 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Where does today's unemployment number come in?

3.2 million? 2.6? 4.1???

 

  Reveal hidden contents

it doesn't matter, is already priced in

 

3.169 million vs 3.05 expected.  Good prediction Wally

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by BevoSwag

[horn4life 3,780]

13 hours ago, horn4life said:

 I am very curious to see what YETI does before the open.  I rode them up, but I kept looking at the 60+% gain since I put them in my watchlist and just felt like Elon Musk about them.  Basically made a little money on them on the way up, and now I am thinking that they are just too damn close to their peak for where I think the economy is headed.  I was going to buy a $35 put for tomorrow earlier today when the stock was top side of $28, so since I didn't it will likely miss earning badly and actually fall... instead of rise on shit earnings... 

I knew as I typed YETI that doom was ahead!  Not doom but a nice almost 10% bounce up in premarket on a slight earnings beat.  OF course CVS had a nice earnings beat and revenue increase and drifts sideways to slightly up. One of the hardest things for me has been to actually put my money where my mouth is. I have lost potential earnings by not being long right now.  my reversal on YETI being example A1.  While the jumps are huge to the positive side on good news and hope, my gut says hope is gonna get shit on...  My hope is that the drop, should it come, will be as equally severe. Could also be YETI is just moving with general market pre-opening optimism?

Anyhow interesting to do things that I had not previously done before.  I wish I had been more sophisticated in options a month ago, but there is a learning curve. 😉 

[Wally Fairway 5,573]

14 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

3.169 million vs 3.05 expected.  Good prediction Wally

 

Futures up 1.25% - so 3+ million is a good thing for the market, but seriously what isn't good news to the market these days?

[CooterBrown 18,022]

I generally just invest in index funds with the exception of a few individual companies and would've never looked at BYND on my own. Thanks to this thread, I bought last week.  I paid $102 a week ago, which  looked like a meh decision until yesterday. I am definitely gruntled this morning.

 

[Tailgate 3,022]

The coronavirus pandemic has disrupted the U.S. meat supply chain as major meat producers idled or shut plants, causing spikes in prices and retailers like Costco and Kroger to limit the number of items consumers can buy. But, that in turn may provide a big growth opportunity for plant-based meat companies like Beyond Meat and Impossible Foods. 

Beyond Meat will introduce “heavier discounting against animal protein” and will have “aggressive pricing” this summer as wholesale beef price surged to $4.10 a pound, Beyond Meat president and CEO Ethan Brown said on an earnings conference call late Tuesday. Brown added that Beyond Meat is introducing lower-priced bulk value packs to grocers as they struggle with supply shortages of animal protein. 

“Our biggest focus is to provide solutions for consumers as they have meat disruptions,” Brown said on the call. “There is an opportunity for consumers to be aware of a different model. There are more opportunities to be relevant to customers.” 

The company reported first-quarter sales more than doubled to $97.1 million.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andriacheng/2020/05/05/with-crimped-animal-meat-supply-coronavirus-may-open-big-consumer-appetite-for-plant-based-meat-from-beyond-meat-impossible-foods/#6605df6a2920

Things like this will only continue to happen. Which is why I’m long BYND and not worried about week to week.

[Wally Fairway 5,573]

Blackrock CEO Larry Fink has a message for private audience "Hold onto your butts"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/fink-delivers-grim-outlook-with-tax-hikes-for-corporate-america?sref=s0L1qQ1H

Quote

BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink had a stark message for a private audience: As bad as things have been for corporate America in recent weeks, they’re likely to get worse.

Mass bankruptcies, empty planes, cautious consumers and an increase in the corporate tax rate to as high as 29% were part of a vision Fink sketched out on a call this week. The message from the leader of the world’s biggest asset manager contrasts with the ebullient tones of a stock market that has snapped back from recent lows.

Even among Wall Street luminaries, Fink speaks with particular clout. He has been advising President Donald Trump on how to navigate the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. And BlackRock is playing a key role in the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize markets, helping the central bank buy billions of dollars in assets.

 

 

Fink said on the call with clients of a wealth advisory firm that bankers have told him they expect a cascade of bankruptcies to hit the American economy, and he wondered if the Fed needed to do more to provide support, according to a person with knowledge of the remarks.

A BlackRock spokesman declined to comment.

Even as the U.S. is plunged into deepening economic gloom, it will have to raise taxes to pay for emergency efforts to rescue sectors grappling with a difficult recovery, he warned on the call.

Among his predictions: lifting the 21% corporate rate signed into law as part of 2017’s tax overhaul to about 28% or 29% next year, according to the person. Fink also said he sees tax rates for individuals going up.

Read more: BlackRock Takes Center Stage With Trump Seeking Calm Markets

Raising taxes would water down the biggest legislative achievement of Trump’s time in office, when he and a Republican-controlled Congress drove through the most significant changes to the tax code in decades.

Lower corporate rates juiced profits and showered cash on shareholders through increased dividends and stock buybacks. Now, at a time when many taxpayers are less able to bear the burden of higher taxes, the government may be forced to extract a larger share of companies’ and individuals’ income.

The spread of the coronavirus, and measures taken to mitigate it, slammed the brakes on the economy. While Trump pushes to reopen commerce and his officials predict a rapid rebound, public health experts and some economists are skeptical the crisis will soon be over.

Politicians, business leaders and economists are beginning to confront the risks of a limited federal response that might speed up the demise of smaller companies and wreck state and municipal finances that pay for schools, law enforcement and infrastructure.

Read more: From Houston to New York, America’s muni finances are in tatters

That won’t be the only strain on companies. Many may have to operate with only about half their staff in the office for more than a year, according to Fink. Across white-collar industries, millions are working remotely from home. It would be hard to see a complete return without mass availability of rapid testing, he said.

There’s a risk that the U.S. outbreak will be severe enough to leave a long-lasting impact on the American psyche, undermining Americans’ willingness to take public transport or fly, according to Fink. He said he’s not aware of any of his CEO peers planning international travel this year.

Underscoring the point, this week home-sharing leader Airbnb Inc. and ride-hailing firm Uber Technologies Inc. announced plans for mass layoffs as they wrestle with falling demand and dimmed prospects for the rest of the year.

Read more: Gig Economy Companies Are Facing Twin Crises

Many of the U.S.’s 30 million small businesses have struggled to get the relief they need. If the crisis continues, about 25% of those companies could close permanently before year-end, according to an April report released by Main Street America, a network comprising approximately 300,000 small businesses.

Restaurants that typically operate with thin margins will struggle to survive as they plot out ways to lure back customers with social-distancing measures in place, Fink said.

Fink also said he was concerned the worsening economic duress could further fan the flames of nationalism. The devastating impact from the coronavirus could make it a bigger threat to the global order, he said.

 

[hornbri 1,401]

21 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm hearing whispers and rumors coming out of a number of big tech companies about possible layoffs that are pointing toward catastrophically bad Q2 numbers. Maybe people are just speculating about what they think may happen but I'm getting concerned because I'm hearing things from a number of directions.   Its feeling like there is going to be a huge number of white-collar professionals getting laid off very soon.   

Between the Q2 results that are soon to start to be announced and a probable uptick COVid-19 in numbers due to re-openings, my spidy-sense is telling me to get out. 

 

 

I am in this industry and am hearing the oppisitie, at least about the big tech companies. Those are looking to hire now, the tech industry is highly job competitive and there are some viewing this as a opportunity to hire talent that may have been laid off at smaller companies. 

[Chet Steadman 940]

Mr. Fink

16 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Blackrock CEO Larry Fink has a message for private audience "Hold onto your butts"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/fink-delivers-grim-outlook-with-tax-hikes-for-corporate-america?sref=s0L1qQ1H

 

Thanks Mr. Fink for that uplifting morning message.  

[Trey3216 15,352]

Nasdaq not in the green for the year.   Lulz 

[GopherRock 1,765]

9 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Speaking of “some big bill”... what construction-type companies stand to benefit if a big infrastructure bill passes?

TPC, maybe FLR? Most big construction outfits that I know of are privately held. 

[drt 640]

2 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

CAT, ACM, MLM, VMC, NUE

I don't know that I'd jump in on CAT, they seem to have a pessimistic attitude so far.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,211]

6 minutes ago, drt said:

I don't know that I'd jump in on CAT, they seem to have a pessimistic attitude so far.

They would get a big pop on the news because dumbasses like me know the name and would rush in to later get crushed.  It would be the ultimate buy the rumor / sell the news play.

[drt 640]

Fair enough

[horn4life 3,780]

Here is how I have decided Restaurant reopening are going to go. After going out myself and my buddies observations, from HopDoddy on Anderson Lane.  It's going to be an interesting double edges sword.  He's 58 years old going in there late after a day on a video shoot where everything was wireless and remote on the set to reduce the chance of transmission. He has his mask, orders, washes his hands and goes and gets his drink, then goes outside to his table.  All the employees are wearing masks and gloves. Then 10 minutes later a group of 4 young 20 somethings come in without masks, and just go about business as usual.  How do those two things coexist and create an increase in spending for those businesses most injured economically?  

I am betting my money on they don't. 

I actually think that if masks were mandatory I would be more optimistic about a careful reopening.  But with good portion of the population not wanting to wear a mask to protect others, how can the people around them feel safe that don't think wearing masks is silly? All choices are damned if you do, and damned if you don't.  There is also a LOT of friction that kept this weeks unemployment numbers lower than they are in actuality, but that's a positive data point in this market... right?

 

 

[Blotto 23,565]

1 hour ago, hornbri said:

I am in this industry and am hearing the oppisitie, at least about the big tech companies. Those are looking to hire now, the tech industry is highly job competitive and there are some viewing this as a opportunity to hire talent that may have been laid off at smaller companies. 

Big tech is a pretty broad group of companies. Tech companies that are pure play software/internet and successful will do all right or possibly benefit from Covid. But the large megacap companies like Cisco, Dell, IBM etc will layoff people if we enter a recession. they did it in 2008 and they will do so again. In the aggregate, I would anticipate more layoffs than hirings over the next 6 month in "big tech." Some of these companies will do so if for no other reason to protect the price of their stock. They could probably ride it out with the layoffs, but at the expense of profitability. Unfortunately most of these executives/boards  are paid exorbitant amounts of bonuses in stock and that drives short term thinking. Other companies will use it as an excuse to exit business segments they shouldn't have entered and now have a great excuse to bail. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Blotto

[Eastwood 4,394]

48 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

They would get a big pop on the news because dumbasses like me know the name and would rush in to later get crushed.  It would be the ultimate buy the rumor / sell the news play.

WSJ reporting industrial vehicle sales are down 72% over this time last year. Sounds like bad news for CAT later in the year.

[52-80 19,223]

Oy.  I got out of Square and Everbridge too early.  Tech × Earnings = Cheese

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,738]

UGA has been on a tear in the last week.  

[Sbbruin 21,866]

55 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

UGA has been on a tear in the last week.  

I thought it was Bevo that was on a tear, not Uga.

[Sbbruin 21,866]

But honestly, I have no idea how to make sense of a stock market that is so disconnected from the economy.  Having recovered more than 60% of my losses, I feel like I should move to cash as an impending fall seems almost inevitable, but then boom, another +350 day.  

[BevoSwag 272]

3 hours ago, Chet Steadman said:

Mr. Fink

Thanks Mr. Fink for that uplifting morning message.  

While I'm no expert since I lost my ass in March's market, here is a little more positive news for you to chew on this afternoon.  I think the guy is really onto something I just didn't see coming like a speeding train.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/this-isn-t-just-a-bear-market-it-s-a-transition-to-a-new-economy-15315683

[Fudge Nuggets 19,211]

1 hour ago, Eastwood said:

WSJ reporting industrial vehicle sales are down 72% over this time last year. Sounds like bad news for CAT later in the year.

Priced fucking in.

[horn4life 3,780]

Always nice to see one of your early Pandemic Picks that you failed to act on, at 3150% of it's normal option activity... FLIR.  Might still have legs but I was watching for a little movement in the first two weeks of April and just went sideways.  My thought was there must be some better competition or something I don't know if nobody else is buying and pushing this thing up.  Now sideways at $33- 35 brings a tiny tear to my eye seeing $48 and crazy options action.  They did apparently get a $20 million dollar military contract, but I was thinking thermal imaging for reopening. 

[Anastasis 23,481]

Felt like a good time to buy some SPY puts. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Felt like a good time to buy some SPY puts. 

It's felt like that for several weeks in a row. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

7 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Blackrock CEO Larry Fink has a message for private audience "Hold onto your butts"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/fink-delivers-grim-outlook-with-tax-hikes-for-corporate-america?sref=s0L1qQ1H

 

This type  of talk - in private...not out in the open (to induce a move one way or the other) makes me feel better. 

Also, Buffett sitting in a lot of cash says plenty.  I'm patient.  This is a very long game.  None of us are ArmyBrat and if you're like me you don't get too excited when you win and you get quite pissed when you lose.  No matter how many times you tell yourself not to have that mentality - that's just the way it works. So I'll sit in 50% cash and tell myself I'm doing what Buffett is doing as if he's some bullet proof know it all.  Good news is the damn oil plays have been lucky as hell so its not all doom and gloom. 

[LTtxfan 49,329]

27 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This type  of talk - in private...not out in the open (to induce a move one way or the other) makes me feel better.  Also, Buffett sitting in a lot of cash says plenty.  I'm patient.  This is a very long game.  None of us are ArmyBrat and if you're like me you don't get too excited when you win and you get quite pissed when you lose.  No matter how many times you tell yourself not to have that mentality - that's just the way it works. So I'll sit in 50% cash and tell myself I'm doing what Buffett is doing as if he's some bullet proof know it all.  Good news is the damn oil plays have been lucky as hell so its not all doom and gloom. 

 

You just described "Loss Aversion".  Losing $100 feels 2 times worse than the feelings of winning $100.

Also as you get older and grow your wealth, it's often  better to be more risk averse due to "Risk and Large Numbers".

• When you have $50k and it drops 50%, your only down $25k.
• If you have $1mill and it drops 50%, your down $500k  OUCH!!!

 

Edited May 7, 2020 by LTtxfan

[Aqua Buddha 14,600]

22 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This type  of talk - in private...not out in the open (to induce a move one way or the other) makes me feel better. 

Also, Buffett sitting in a lot of cash says plenty.  I'm patient.  This is a very long game.  None of us are ArmyBrat and if you're like me you don't get too excited when you win and you get quite pissed when you lose.  No matter how many times you tell yourself not to have that mentality - that's just the way it works. So I'll sit in 50% cash and tell myself I'm doing what Buffett is doing as if he's some bullet proof know it all.  Good news is the damn oil plays have been lucky as hell so its not all doom and gloom. 

Saw an interview with Sam Zell, who said the same thing on real estate.  Said he'd love to buy things right now but is sitting on cash until things come down.

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,738]

To a degree he is. He’s going heavy into buying producing operated O&G assets.

At least that is what I read, but then again the recent downturn in that sector may have put things on pause for him.