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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19101

Posted
Posted

As my Louis always said, “Think big, think positive, never show any sign of weakness. Always go for the throat. Buy low, sell high. Fear? That's the other guy's problem. Nothing you have ever experienced will prepare you for the unlimited carnage you are about to witness. Superbowl, World Series - they don't know what pressure is. In this building, it's either kill or be killed. You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One moment you're up half a mil in soybeans and the next, boom, your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me?”

Seriously, stocks have been completely disconnected from reality. I’m not sure what to think.

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54217

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8 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

I generally just invest in index funds with the exception of a few individual companies and would've never looked at BYND on my own. Thanks to this thread, I bought last week.  I paid $102 a week ago, which  looked like a meh decision until yesterday. I am definitely gruntled this morning.

 

I seriously couldn't live with myself if I owned a fake meat company. 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54217

Posted
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52 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

In case you don't know how stocks really work, you couldn't 0.0000001% live with yourself, if you bought a few shares of BYND; while you, hopefully, make a few bucks.

I'm not going to make money off of fake meat.  I have principles.

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

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9 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

 


You really can’t apply logic with the administration giving out massive stimulus awards to distort what should be happening on the market.

 

the Administration and the Federal Reserve.

Logic has been to buy what the Fed is buying. Since they print the money, and the bazookas are a depositing huge pools of liquidity constantly, I see the logic in that strategy. The market will chase some other metric in the near future. 

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52-80

52-80 19151

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10 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

I'm not going to make money off of fake meat.  I have principles.

I invested based on principles, and I lost money

Then I invested without principles, based on momentum, and also lost money

 

But BYND did decent

 

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Captainant

Captainant 27660

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32 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

the Administration and the Federal Reserve.

Logic has been to buy what the Fed is buying. Since they print the money, and the bazookas are a depositing huge pools of liquidity constantly, I see the logic in that strategy. The market will chase some other metric in the near future. 

Wow, is that the free market at work that I hear so much about? I wish I had enough money to get my profits subsidized by the fed

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

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1 hour ago, bernorange said:

As you read that bit about the bond markets, keep in mind that the Fed is heavily subsidizing/manipulating the markets for Treasuries and very soon corporate bonds.

No doubt, but the pint remains the same.  The FED weren’t be doing that if there were true optimism about an economic recovery 

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bernorange

bernorange 8361

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42 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

No doubt, but the pint remains the same. ...

The point is that the divergence would be much worse (more pronounced) without the interventions.  Bond markets are giving false confidence to pundits and analysts like the one quoted ([oped]yeah, so which market is sending the right signal?  Maybe the equity markets?[/oped]  lulz).  Brrrrrr.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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13 years ago, the market took the banks at their word on the valuation of mortgage backed securities in the face of key indicators saying otherwise. It nearly collapsed the global economy. 6 months after the first major institution, New Century, went bankrupt the Dow hit its all time peak. Literally 4 months after that, the government had to begin bailing everyone out. Now the market is ignoring key economic indicators while all the market players are taking each other at their word that the next 6 months worth of bad economic news is already priced in, despite the economic fog of war. 

I'm not saying to withdraw your Roth and slap it all on 150 SPY puts for Jan 2021, but it's too soon to tell if March was a foreshock or the main event.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5320

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I have lost my ass in my play money account.  My serious accounts are 90 percent cash, 10 percent bonds and staying there for the foreseeable future.  
 

I saw a couple of articles about this being an algo driven market and that makes more sense than people looking at the data and saying this is fine.  
 

The market crash is going to be worse the longer this stupid fight to keep equites high lasts.  Earnings eventually matter.  

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3263

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Interesting article

 

https://apple.news/ALfutsRVkTiGY8TxyqpVLoA

Quote

Regardless of the jobs data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 372 points, or 1.6%, around midday. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index, more sensitive to upturns and plunges in the economy, added 3.1%.

Several companies this week have started to talk up their reopening plans, and others have said they are already seeing improving conditions in their businesses. Uber (ticker: UBER) said on Thursday evening that its ride-hailing bookings were well off their lowest levels of the crisis. Shares jumped 6%.

Walt Disney (DIS) sold out tickets for its soon-to-be reopened Shanghai Disneyland in minutes, suggesting that consumers in the world’s second-largest economy are eager to get back to enjoying life, and are willing to spend money. The theme park will initially be limited to one-third capacity to allow for physical distancing.

Disney also plans to reopen a shopping and entertainment complex adjacent to Disney World in Florida before the end of May. The stock was up 2.3% on Friday.

 

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mapplewhite132

mapplewhite132 309

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On 5/7/2020 at 12:04 PM, Sbbruin said:

But honestly, I have no idea how to make sense of a stock market that is so disconnected from the economy.  Having recovered more than 60% of my losses, I feel like I should move to cash as an impending fall seems almost inevitable, but then boom, another +350 day.  

this is where im at

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Hmmm

Hmmm 155

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i think an important indicator that hasn't been discussed much (if at all) is:  where is China in terms of opening things up with manufacturing? that seems important, ya know, since we depend on them so much.  i did see an article a few days ago saying the factories are at, or close to, full capacity and even making up for losses over the past few months.  not sure how much truth is in that.

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Captainant

Captainant 27660

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10 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

i think an important indicator that hasn't been discussed much (if at all) is:  where is China in terms of opening things up with manufacturing? that seems important, ya know, since we depend on them so much.  i did see an article a few days ago saying the factories are at, or close to, full capacity and even making up for losses over the past few months.  not sure how much truth is in that.

There's no economic engine of consumption right now though. Historically bad unemployment numbers means less money circulating in the ACTUAL economy - the supply-side BRRRRRRT-ing by the fed isn't really making much of a difference for Joe American. 

Even if those factories open up, there's significantly fewer people with the fluidity to buy shit, and even less credit available for those who didn't have fluidity. Stagflation is a-comin.

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EuroHorn

EuroHorn 3263

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2 hours ago, Hmmm said:

i think an important indicator that hasn't been discussed much (if at all) is:  where is China in terms of opening things up with manufacturing? that seems important, ya know, since we depend on them so much.  i did see an article a few days ago saying the factories are at, or close to, full capacity and even making up for losses over the past few months.  not sure how much truth is in that.

Username checks out 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

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10 hours ago, bernorange said:

The point is that the divergence would be much worse (more pronounced) without the interventions.  Bond markets are giving false confidence to pundits and analysts like the one quoted ([oped]yeah, so which market is sending the right signal?  Maybe the equity markets?[/oped]  lulz).  Brrrrrr.

The equity markets will be tipped again.  Mark it down 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

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I'm going to just keep buying high flyers and cash out for 5 - 10% each time until we have one of those good -5% days.  I will not buy that dip.

If "they" do what I bet they will do to fuck with me, they will just slowly and surely march it down 5% over the course of a few weeks.  At that point, who the fuck knows what to do.

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horn4life

horn4life 3760

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I sold puts  on Wednesday afternoon in VIXY May 8th hoping to get paid to pick up a few shares,  also sold $31 May 22, and $35 May 29 puts Friday  once it was clear I was going to get assigned. I did this instead of buying SPY puts.  Because of Friday's big move I bit off more than I expected as more options got assigned on the markets Friday surge. So Friday was a sort of a mini blood bath.  Like I told the wife, I hate to see the big red numbers but I have to go with what i believe is going to happen.    That eventually the disconnect the economic reality and the market exuberance will come closer into balance.  It was nice to tell the wife we were going to see another bloodbath today after looking at futures last night only to find things breaking my way this morning.  So bleed out tomorrow, transfusion the next day, welcome to volatility!

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14595

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Had a good conversation over the weekend about an industry I know nothing about, which is health care but specifically hospitals.  Curious as to @ChiTownDoc and his prespective.

The wife (no pics assholes) is an architect and she's done work with hospitals in the past.  Her dad was also a senior partner in a Big 6 accounting firm and did a lot of early work for hospitals of all shapes and sizes.  They were both talking about what's going on now is a "medical recession," which we've never had before.  They both said what is a key point to understand is that hospitals are like airlines in that they need to be full to make a profit and 20% of the people cover the entire profit.  Basically, you have to have an ER and it's a complete money pit.  That's balanced out by elective surgeries which are a cash cow and they're not going on right now.  Said that something like a knee replacement is fully insured and always pays but the woman bringing her kid into the ER because he's sick is almost always a charge off and they're legally required to treat her.  They basically said the hospital industry is propped up by surgeries we may or may not need to have and we'd have fewer of them if we took better care of ourselves.  

Interesting perspectives, I thought.

 

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horn4life

horn4life 3760

Posted
Posted (edited)

Anyone else in or against YETI?  I was long, watched from just under $17, bought in high teens and low twenties, rode into mid 20's and sold covered calls @ 27.50 and exited on a dip with protective stops at 24.48/23.48  that moved me out. I can't decide in my ind if Yeti is a luxury brand or not?  I was  thinking probably shitty Summer selling season, and bought some puts that expired for a loss that ate about half my earlier profits, so recommitted and bought $35 June 19 Puts figuring by then it's gonna go one way of the other.  

So how do I greet YETI's secondary offering from existing shareholders of 15 million shares at $28.20 to be completed by the 13th?  Stock price is $27.17 as of now. My break even on the put is 26.91.  My downside is probably limited now from having the stock move past $35 and wash away on decay, but was hoping for a fall into the lower 20's by June.

PS - overall I like the company long term, but the meteoric rise percentage wise in my watch list made me want to short in the moderate term.

 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14595

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Posted

Finally pulled the trigger on a trade.  Invitation Homes.

Real estate is in a weird place right now.  Commercial Retail is a fucking dumpster fire and will get worse.  Commercial Class A might be underrated.  While we're going to have fewer total people in the office, they'll need more SF/person.  That will keep that sector flat or maybe even up.

Residential will remain solid overall due to demographic trends.  What I liked about both Invitation and American Homes 4 Rent is that they cater specifically to single family homes compared to apartments.  I'm not sold on the multi family sector but with those two, there seems to be a push for the burbs right now and their typical renter is a married couple with 100Kish in family income and is less impacted now that the service industry types who inhabit the apartment sector.  I picked Invitation because their financials were better and they have a nice dividend (2%).

 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

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12 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Anyone else in or against YETI?  I was long, watched from just under $17, bought in high teens and low twenties, rode into mid 20's and sold covered calls @ 27.50 and exited on a dip with protective stops at 24.48/23.48  that moved me out. I can't decide in my ind if Yeti is a luxury brand or not?  I was  thinking probably shitty Summer selling season, and bought some puts that expired for a loss that ate about half my earlier profits, so recommitted and bought $35 June 19 Puts figuring by then it's gonna go one way of the other.  

So how do I greet YETI's secondary offering from existing shareholders of 15 million shares at $28.20 to be completed by the 13th?  Stock price is $27.17 as of now. My break even on the put is 26.91.  My downside is probably limited now from having the stock move past $35 and wash away on decay, but was hoping for a fall into the lower 20's by June.

PS - overall I like the company long term, but the meteoric rise percentage wise in my watch list made me want to short in the moderate term.

 

You are looking for a reversion to the mean.  When markets are behaving this way (up on bad news, up more on good news) that doesn't work.

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Chapo

Chapo 104

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I'm not sold on the multi family sector but with those two, there seems to be a push for the burbs right now and their typical renter is a married couple with 100Kish in family income and is less impacted now that the service industry types who inhabit the apartment sector. 

 

I looked at the available leases in Houston for Invitation Homes and I'm not sure if 100k income family would wanna stay in those houses.  Most are <$2000/month which seems kinda low.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14595

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Chapo said:

I looked at the available leases in Houston for Invitation Homes and I'm not sure if 100k income family would wanna stay in those houses.  Most are <$2000/month which seems kinda low.

People will always stretch to live in a better house.  It's why there is zero market for 3 BR apartments.  Those are generally small families and they stretch for a house.

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bluto

bluto 4927

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Posted
Finally pulled the trigger on a trade.  Invitation Homes.
Real estate is in a weird place right now.  Commercial Retail is a fucking dumpster fire and will get worse.  Commercial Class A might be underrated.  While we're going to have fewer total people in the office, they'll need more SF/person.  That will keep that sector flat or maybe even up.
Residential will remain solid overall due to demographic trends.  What I liked about both Invitation and American Homes 4 Rent is that they cater specifically to single family homes compared to apartments.  I'm not sold on the multi family sector but with those two, there seems to be a push for the burbs right now and their typical renter is a married couple with 100Kish in family income and is less impacted now that the service industry types who inhabit the apartment sector.  I picked Invitation because their financials were better and they have a nice dividend (2%).
 

While I kinda see where you’re coming from on the office take, I think it’s the opposite in we’re seeing the corner turn on remote working finally taking hold where tenants just give that square footage up for good at year end/renewal/expiration.
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