Markets still falling like whoa

[Lurch 5,931]

How bad off can they be? They've got cars.

And probably iPhones!

[RDCanecutter 26,458]

1 minute ago, Lurch said:

 

And probably iPhones!

 

And they're getting free food.

[Blotto 23,560]

19 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

How bad off can they be? They've got cars.

its a good point. if things get really tight out there, and they lose their homes, they can just switch to Work from Cars, once they land their new job in this super v-shape recovery. 

[Sbbruin 21,865]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Finally pulled the trigger on a trade.  Invitation Homes.

Real estate is in a weird place right now.  Commercial Retail is a fucking dumpster fire and will get worse.  Commercial Class A might be underrated.  While we're going to have fewer total people in the office, they'll need more SF/person.  That will keep that sector flat or maybe even up.

 

That's our feeling on office.  Density going forward likely will likely lighten up, offsetting some of the softer demand.  Will be flat for awhile going forward, but probably won't retreat much.

[Longhorn 145]

Is the S&P getting close to 2000 yet? 

[horn4life 3,778]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

You are looking for a reversion to the mean.  When markets are behaving this way (up on bad news, up more on good news) that doesn't work.

I just think that "Up on bad news" is going to be a more difficult sell.  Everyone and I mean everyone wants to get back to "normal." However with a real unemployment rate in May and June over 20%, and the obvious week over week increases of virus cases in the US, as we slowly open up, I don't think bad news will be good news for the market much longer. In my mind the real question is will the market over time retain optimism as the infection and death charts look like great stock stocks that are gonna go up for the foreseeable future?  I'm betting no, and that the gap between hopeful exuberance and revenue realities on main street become more aligned. 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,209]

I agree, but no sense in trying to fight it until we start seeing the market go down on bad news.  It’s not like there will only be one day to get short.

[0xdeadbeef 1,651]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I agree, but no sense in trying to fight it until we start seeing the market go down on bad news.  It’s not like there will only be one day to get short.

The first coronavirus drop the market took ran from about Feb 20th to about March 23rd. Plenty of time to get out....in hindsight.  The first week of March made it really tough because the market recovered a bit and seemed like it was stabilizing.... then bottom fell out.

I think at some point the market will come out of it's fantasy land and rejoin the real world.    Quarterly reports, unemployment rates, and vanishing dividends are going to start to matter again.  I can see a snowball effect that starts with one or two stocks and then picks up steam and the whole market goes south really fast.

The problem that is stressing me out is how will I know it's time to get out?  The first day it the market drops 5%?    Two big drops in a row? I week of down?  I need a crystal Ball.

 

 

[Captainant 27,701]

15 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

The problem that is stressing me out is how will I know it's time to get out?  The first day it the market drops 5%?    Two big drops in a row? I week of down?  I need a crystal Ball.

Just know that whenever you get out, it's already priced in

[closetohumping 17,455]

49 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

The first coronavirus drop the market took ran from about Feb 20th to about March 23rd. Plenty of time to get out....in hindsight.  The first week of March made it really tough because the market recovered a bit and seemed like it was stabilizing.... then bottom fell out.

I think at some point the market will come out of it's fantasy land and rejoin the real world.    Quarterly reports, unemployment rates, and vanishing dividends are going to start to matter again.  I can see a snowball effect that starts with one or two stocks and then picks up steam and the whole market goes south really fast.

The problem that is stressing me out is how will I know it's time to get out?  The first day it the market drops 5%?    Two big drops in a row? I week of down?  I need a crystal Ball.

 

 

Better to be a day early than a day late

 

 

 

anyone do well on Moderna?

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

5 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Had a good conversation over the weekend about an industry I know nothing about, which is health care but specifically hospitals.  Curious as to @ChiTownDoc and his prespective.

The wife (no pics assholes) is an architect and she's done work with hospitals in the past.  Her dad was also a senior partner in a Big 6 accounting firm and did a lot of early work for hospitals of all shapes and sizes.  They were both talking about what's going on now is a "medical recession," which we've never had before.  They both said what is a key point to understand is that hospitals are like airlines in that they need to be full to make a profit and 20% of the people cover the entire profit.  Basically, you have to have an ER and it's a complete money pit.  That's balanced out by elective surgeries which are a cash cow and they're not going on right now.  Said that something like a knee replacement is fully insured and always pays but the woman bringing her kid into the ER because he's sick is almost always a charge off and they're legally required to treat her.  They basically said the hospital industry is propped up by surgeries we may or may not need to have and we'd have fewer of them if we took better care of ourselves.  

Interesting perspectives, I thought.

 

Yes, it seems very obvious to me since I'm in the middle of it.  But there's really no debate on that being how economics of a hospital system generally work.  Started electives today here in IL so we're hoping to see a pop and fast.  It's needed.  Mayo says they'll lose a couple billion dollars through this...they will weather that and be ok.  But there's lots of smaller/rural hospital systems that will be on life support. Ironic. 

[Blotto 23,560]

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-6-reasons-for-more-selling-goldman-sachs-2020-5-1029188273#6-international-tensions6

Quote

Several factors stand to pull the S&P 500 lower before it rises into year-end, Goldman Sachs analysts said on Friday.

The bank sees the benchmark index closing the year at 3,000 - roughly 2% higher than its Friday close of 2,930 - as the coronavirus threat fades and the economy rebounds. But Goldman's forecast also reflects an 18% downside to its three-month target, with looming threats dragging the benchmark index to 2,400 by the end of the summer.

"A single catalyst may not spark a pullback, but a number of concerns and risks exist that we believe, and our client discussions confirm, investors are downplaying," a team led by David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist, wrote in a client note.

The stock market's recent surge from late-March lows is best attributed to a "fear of missing out" attitude among investors, and skepticism about the rally's strength remains, Goldman added.

Listed below are the six risks Goldman says investors are overlooking. The firm thinks these will be responsible for pushing US stocks lower over the next three months as they become fully realized.

Everybody knows that Q2 numbers will be abysmally bad, and nowhere near where they need to be to support current market valuations (on average). We better have very clear indications that the V shaped recovery is strongly underway in Q3, or I struggle to see the return to 3000 by end of year.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19,209]

I think the S&P 500 200 day moving average is lurking right around 3,000.  This rebound seems destined to try and reclaim it then it might shit the bed.

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

52 minutes ago, Blotto said:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-6-reasons-for-more-selling-goldman-sachs-2020-5-1029188273#6-international-tensions6

Everybody knows that Q2 numbers will be abysmally bad, and nowhere near where they need to be to support current market valuations (on average). We better have very clear indications that the V shaped recovery is strongly underway in Q3, or I struggle to see the return to 3000 by end of year.  

To me it's comical to think there is any chance at all that Q3 will show a strong V shaped recovery.  I give it less than 1% chance.  Even if a vaccine is completely ready in Q3 - there's still zero chance that shows up in time to actually help Q3.  Now if there's actually a pending vaccine - I doubt it - then we'll shrug off even the terrible Q3 news and continue to STONK this market up.  When will things retreat?  Who knows...but imo we're just delaying the inevitable and that's not very smart for anyone thinking long term.  You'll end up at the same levels but will have increased risk of inflation etc all just so you could delay the impending doom?  Not sure I get it...

[Beau Vine 54,328]

8 hours ago, horn4life said:

Anyone else in or against YETI?  I was long, watched from just under $17, bought in high teens and low twenties, rode into mid 20's and sold covered calls @ 27.50 and exited on a dip with protective stops at 24.48/23.48  that moved me out. I can't decide in my ind if Yeti is a luxury brand or not?  I was  thinking probably shitty Summer selling season, and bought some puts that expired for a loss that ate about half my earlier profits, so recommitted and bought $35 June 19 Puts figuring by then it's gonna go one way of the other.  

So how do I greet YETI's secondary offering from existing shareholders of 15 million shares at $28.20 to be completed by the 13th?  Stock price is $27.17 as of now. My break even on the put is 26.91.  My downside is probably limited now from having the stock move past $35 and wash away on decay, but was hoping for a fall into the lower 20's by June.

PS - overall I like the company long term, but the meteoric rise percentage wise in my watch list made me want to short in the moderate term.

 

Have a former student who works there.  She's really book smart and also really hot, but she somehow proposed a Yeti dog bowl and it somehow got green-lit and they're trying to sell it for $50 now.  

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

25 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Have a former student who works there.  She's really book smart and also really hot, but she somehow proposed a Yeti dog bowl and it somehow got green-lit and they're trying to sell it for $50 now.  

Is my computer not working?

[UTGrad98 2,280]

30 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Have a former student who works there.  She's really book smart and also really hot, but she somehow proposed a Yeti dog bowl and it somehow got green-lit and they're trying to sell it for $50 now.  

I'm unable to see the pic you posted of her. Can you repost? 

[LTtxfan 49,325]

4 hours ago, Blotto said:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-6-reasons-for-more-selling-goldman-sachs-2020-5-1029188273#6-international-tensions6

Everybody knows that Q2 numbers will be abysmally bad, and nowhere near where they need to be to support current market valuations (on average). We better have very clear indications that the V shaped recovery is strongly underway in Q3, or I struggle to see the return to 3000 by end of year.  

 

For entertainment purposes.. 

 

[Anastasis 23,481]

BYND doing BYND things again. 

[horn4life 3,778]

Oh no doubt for me the large move in VIXY caused me to take a larger bite of the apple than I wanted to at one time. Also I agree that you can't fight the emotion of the market, because while there is a lot of wonderful data crunching and trend analysis, the stock market is basically an emotional creature.  I think of it as a woman, and one of my favorite lines is, "the bitches be crazy!"   I should honestly be more long on tech quality like APPL, but since I didn't buy in in early April...

The one thing I do think is that IF the market does move into retreat folks are gonna react a hell of a lot quicker than they did on the first drop.  It will be faster and steeper.  I think that even folks that think this is bull from here have stops on all their long positions.  IMHO, MANY MORE traders have stops in place to protect against a possible retreat.  Do you agree with this or not?  Just curious on your opinions on the percentage of traders now having stops in place, not making some bold declaration regarding stops. From a speed of reactions perspective, I for example got sucked into selling a bunch of long positions with the fall the Oil trading collapses effect on the market, because of my stops.  Preserved a good portion of my gains but sell price was well below the actual stop limit, because of the steepness and quickness of the reaction of the market to the downward tick.

I wish I still had my long positions because I would have made a bit more profit, but I'm skittish and I simply don't have confidence we are going to be able to open up successfully.  I think it will appear like we are having at least some degree of success.  We will see.  Right now is about the time I was expecting ticks up in Georgia and Florida outbreaks because of spring break travel. If I'm right about that, then the healthcare burden is in about two more weeks.  Georgia and Florida are going to be the states I watch closest.  If they can reopen and sustain reopening without a huge spike, then I am likely wrong about my market dip prognostications. In fact I need to go look get some benchmarks from the web, for data points. 

 

 

.

 

 

 

[52-80 19,211]

14 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

 

For entertainment purposes.. 

 

i can see her hamburger

[Aqua Buddha 14,599]

BTW, I'm down long term on Facebook.  It's sunk to the place where olds trade conspiracy theories.  I used to be an avid FB user but I'm rarely there anymore due to that.  They need to get that shit under control or they'll be irrelevant in 5 years.

[atomheartbevo 89,764]

54 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

BTW, I'm down long term on Facebook.  It's sunk to the place where olds trade conspiracy theories.  I used to be an avid FB user but I'm rarely there anymore due to that.  They need to get that shit under control or they'll be irrelevant in 5 years.

There’s nothing around to replace it, a shitload of people, organizations, and companies still use it daily, and it’s extremely easy to use.    It’ll still be relevant.  Especially since potential competitors either fucked up and dropped out, or never had the traction.  

[52-80 19,211]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

BTW, I'm down long term on Facebook.  It's sunk to the place where olds trade conspiracy theories.  I used to be an avid FB user but I'm rarely there anymore due to that.  They need to get that shit under control or they'll be irrelevant in 5 years.

its lame as fuck, but the proxy of measure of their business is no longer how cool they are.  theyre still THE default digital presence for most of the world.  they are THE business directory (how many SMBs have facebook pages but no websites?).  they still own the premier messaging app (instagram).  they have ludicrous quantity of interconected global data that span beyond what we superficially envision -- i.e. only photos and locations of active users ..... 

 

2 fucking big 2 fail

[Fudge Nuggets 19,209]

What a complete shitshow the last 45 minutes turned out to be.  Guess the brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr machine forgot about stocks when it went ot buying up corporate debt.

Fuckers.  I snatched up some TNA a minute before the close.  Last time the Russell went down three days in a row was early March.

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

On 5/11/2020 at 12:40 PM, Longhorn said:

Is the S&P getting close to 2000 yet? 

Narrator: no

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

10 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

its lame as fuck, but the proxy of measure of their business is no longer how cool they are.  theyre still THE default digital presence for most of the world.  they are THE business directory (how many SMBs have facebook pages but no websites?).  they still own the premier messaging app (instagram).  they have ludicrous quantity of interconected global data that span beyond what we superficially envision -- i.e. only photos and locations of active users ..... 

 

2 fucking big 2 fail

Yeah - their base platform has very little to do with their upside.  And they'll keep buying shit that's much 'cooler' than the bullshit basic fb page.  And the dumbass olds feed them all kinds of data about themselves - that shit is always going to be valuable.  They should just buy 23 and me and own every detail on MF's lives...just get it done. 

[52-80 19,211]

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

What a complete shitshow the last 45 minutes turned out to be.  Guess the brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr machine forgot about stocks when it went ot buying up corporate debt.

Fuckers.  I snatched up some TNA a minute before the close.  Last time the Russell went down three days in a row was early March.

i 'memba that.  that was when i was still making money on shorts, before having it all go sour

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

19 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

 

For entertainment purposes.. 

 

Not everything is going down. 

[tokamak 6,433]

23 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

its lame as fuck, but the proxy of measure of their business is no longer how cool they are.  theyre still THE default digital presence for most of the world.  they are THE business directory (how many SMBs have facebook pages but no websites?).  they still own the premier messaging app (instagram).  they have ludicrous quantity of interconected global data that span beyond what we superficially envision -- i.e. only photos and locations of active users ..... 

 

2 fucking big 2 fail

Yeah it seems like the barrier to entry for someone to compete with them is sky high. Not because of technology but because of the network effect. Besides, olds trading conspiracy theories is probably a pretty lucrative market.

[52-80 19,211]

who wants to gamble on some AH discounts that turns into morning-after gems?

[horn4life 3,778]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

who wants to gamble on some AH discounts that turns into morning-after gems?

I'm your huckleberry... 😉 for like 15 minutes

Edited May 12, 2020 by horn4life

[horn4life 3,778]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

its lame as fuck, but the proxy of measure of their business is no longer how cool they are.  theyre still THE default digital presence for most of the world.  they are THE business directory (how many SMBs have facebook pages but no websites?).  they still own the premier messaging app (instagram).  they have ludicrous quantity of interconnected global data that span beyond what we superficially envision -- i.e. only photos and locations of active users ..... 

 

2 fucking big 2 fail

I'm not in on FB... But I know exactly where it's going....

 

Signed,

Rehoboam

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,209]

Powell supposed to start yammering about shit at 8:00.  I fully expect the futures to drop like a rock once he opens his pie hole.

[Twizzler 161]

On 5/11/2020 at 7:30 PM, Beau Vine said:

Have a former student who works there.  She's really book smart and also really hot, but she somehow proposed a Yeti dog bowl and it somehow got green-lit and they're trying to sell it for $50 now.  

I know for sure at least one was sold.

 

[UTexasFight 9,517]

Powell supposed to start yammering about shit at 8:00.  I fully expect the futures to drop like a rock once he opens his pie hole.

[Anastasis 23,481]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Powell supposed to start yammering about shit at 8:00.  I fully expect the futures to drop like a rock once he opens his pie hole.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,209]

Took my losses in TNA and SLAB and doing fuck all for awhile now.

[bernorange 8,362]

Good morning Surly.

Quote

Stan Druckenmiller said the risk-reward calculation for equities is the worst he’s seen in his career, and that the government stimulus programs won’t be enough to overcome real world economic problems.

“The consensus out there seems to be: ‘Don’t worry, the Fed has your back,’” said Druckenmiller on Tuesday during a webcast held by The Economic Club of New York. “There’s only one problem with that: our analysis says it’s not true.”

While traders think there is “massive” liquidity and that the stimulus programs are big enough to solve the problems facing the U.S., the economic effects of the coronavirus are likely to be long lasting and will lead to a slew of bankruptcies, he said.

“I pray I’m wrong on this, but I just think that the V-out is a fantasy,” the legendary hedge fund manager said, referring to a V-shaped recovery.

Druckenmiller’s remarks are among the strongest comments yet by a Wall Street heavyweight on the bleak outlook facing the U.S. They also stand in contrast to the optimism that has pushed the S&P 500 Index to rally almost 30% since its March low even as the pandemic has brought the economy to a standstill, seized up credit markets and ended the longest bull market in history.

The damage spurred the Federal Reserve to unveil a raft of emergency lending programs and Congress to unleash almost $3 trillion in stimulus funds. But those programs aren’t likely to spur future economic growth, Druckenmiller said.

“It was basically a combination of transfer payments to individuals, basically paying them more not to work than to work,” he said. “And in addition to that, it was a bunch of payments to zombie companies to keep them alive.”

Druckenmiller said he thinks that the current liquidity will soon shrink as U.S. Treasury borrowing crowds out the private economy and even overwhelms Fed purchases.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/druckenmiller-says-v-shaped-recovery-for-u-s-is-a-fantasy?sref=61mHmpU4

[Fudge Nuggets 19,209]

15 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Took my losses in TNA and SLAB and doing fuck all for awhile now.

And I'm pretty sure I bottom-ticked both, so feel free to go long in size and bank serious bucks at my expense.

[Beau Vine 54,328]

58 minutes ago, bernorange said:

“The consensus out there seems to be: ‘Don’t worry, the Fed has your back,’”

"Consensus?" I literally don't know a single person who thinks that.  

[Lurch 5,931]

"Consensus?" I literally don't know a single person who thinks that.  

I believe his point is that the market not tanking suggests that belief is prevailing

[bernorange 8,362]

Also, see this thread where folks lament the market isn't rational and resign themselves to ride the Fed's coattails.

[DCA_HORN 725]

Some people have no confidence in this country.

[atomheartbevo 89,764]

19 hours ago, tokamak said:

Besides, olds trading conspiracy theories is probably a pretty lucrative market.

Alex Jones’s ex-wife agrees with this statement.  

[atomheartbevo 89,764]

19 hours ago, 52-80 said:

its lame as fuck, but the proxy of measure of their business is no longer how cool they are.  theyre still THE default digital presence for most of the world.  they are THE business directory (how many SMBs have facebook pages but no websites?).  they still own the premier messaging app (instagram).  they have ludicrous quantity of interconected global data that span beyond what we superficially envision -- i.e. only photos and locations of active users ..... 

2 fucking big 2 fail

This little pandemic reinforced a whole lot of small businesses and their customers using FB, as well as families and friends staying in touch.  There were multiple small, local stores that we had to use Facebook Messenger to contact them through, for orders and pickups.   We would ask what they had, say jigsaw puzzles.  They would send us photos of their inventory, and we would arrange it through Messenger.  

[bernorange 8,362]

Is there any aspect of that that couldn't be done via email?

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

[Incredulity 11,679]

Please share SPY tales of glory.

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

44 minutes ago, DCA_HORN said:

Some people have no confidence in this country.

You’re right. We are not gonna be a pack of elitist assholes celebrating all time highs while the average American is getting assfucked.  We are better than that.