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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
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bernorange

bernorange 8361

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You’re right. We are not gonna be a pack of elitist assholes celebrating all time highs while the average American is getting assfucked.  We are better than that.  

Quote

...
Wondered Bass: “What happens if we get to November and stock markets are at all-time highs, and we’re at 15% unemployment, and the food [banks] don’t have food? Imagine this world. ...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-should-prepare-for-a-us-economic-depression-warns-kyle-bass-but-chinas-fate-could-be-even-worse-2020-05-13

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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horn4life

horn4life 3760

Posted
Posted

What's funny is I got nervous about picking up too much VIXY after taking a larger bite than I wanted last expiration on written puts last Friday, I was looking at the another big bite this Friday.  So I hedged selling some June 5th/19th expiration $30 covered calls, and sold $27 puts on the same dates, to generate some income.  Now I am OTM on all the VIXY shares I was worried about overloading my position with yesterday. Volatility is a conundrum. 

 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49188

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Took my losses in TNA and SLAB and doing fuck all for awhile now.

Was concerned about your TNA position when I finally checked on mkt midday.   I started more averaging in today, but still got beat up... DAMN!

Appreciate you willing to share your trades that have gains or losses @Fudge Nuggets   

Hope JL cheers yah up!! 🤘

giphy.gif

 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

Posted
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Longs are going to be ok.  I moved half my 401k to cash, and that’s as much as I ever go with it.  It was a lot harder trigger to pull than when I did it back in early Feb; that time seemed like a no brainer.  Getting back in was also tough but I handled this first bear market cycle pretty good.  We’ll see going forward.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

Posted
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Ooops.  3MM more unemployment claims and the market is going lower on the news.

Good friend of mine a lot better at market strategies always told me go long if the market reacts positively to bad news and sit on the sidelines / go short when it goes down on bad news.  This is the second week in a row that the market reaction to bad news has been lower.

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TornACL

TornACL 7698

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

“On this day in 1997, Amazon.com went public on the Nasdaq, offering 3 million shares at an initial price of $18 per share.”

With 3 splits in the history (2x,3x,2x) I believe a 5k investment at 30 per would be worth $4.7 M today

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bernorange

bernorange 8361

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ray Dalio has been screeching about a coming paradigm shift for over a year (long before Covid19 stuff came to light).  It seems like the rhetoric on the divide between main street and wall street is ramping up.  Tiabbi's latest:

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Assuming the Fed bazooka keeps firing, however, a large portion of the investor class is already on a road leading back to champagne and confetti. And that, as Robert Frost would say, has made all the difference.

On the road more traveled, on the real side of the coronavirus economy, the pain has been historic. As of this writing, 30 million people have filed jobless claims during the COVID-19 crisis, and millions have lost their employer-based insurance.

At least one in three can’t make their rent, millions more can’t afford groceries, and workers in supermarkets, medical clinics, warehouses, and other professions are now in a macabre race to see if they’ll turn blue and die before corporate employers decide to slash their salaries or retirement benefits — which has already happened to front-line caregivers in some cities.

There are no projections of record earnings in the futures of such people. The best case is survival, and the grim reality of diminished economic horizons. Yet for the tiny sliver of people whose fortunes depend not on salaries, tips, and commissions, but upon the prices of financial products like stocks and bonds, the coronavirus response heralds a brave new world.
...

More:  https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/taibbi-covid-19-bailout-wall-street-997342/

Also, for @Beau Vine re:Druckenmiller's consensus comment:

Quote

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Investors were fleeing stocks, bonds, money-market funds, etc., in the first weeks of March for the perfectly logical reason that most businesses suddenly looked like dicey investments. But the instant the Fed announced its new purchasing programs, most of these markets bounced back nearly all the way up.

Major bond funds that were on the brink of failure on March 23rd — like BlackRock’s $30 billion LQD fund — rebounded and recovered nearly all of their value in the next days. The S&P 500 sank 34 percent in 23 trading sessions at the beginning of the crisis, then after the Fed’s announcement on March 23rd, rose 27 percent in its next 16 sessions. The NYSE Composite hit a low of 8,777 on March 23rd, then started a long march back up over 10,000 and then 11,000 from that day forward.

Investors have begun following the Fed. Analysts are encouraging clients to “buy what the Fed is buying,” because “the stimulus seems to be endless.” The boom isn’t in any particular kind of company or product, but in the Fed itself.

“The Fed is the market, and all the big players know it, while the real economy will stagger far behind,” is how Nomi Prins, author of Collusion and an expert on central-banking policy, puts it.
...

 

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Captainant

Captainant 27669

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Take a conference call and my daily gain on my SPY puts was reduced by 80%. wtf brrrrt

Sure is great having this big, free market where winners and losers are chosen by the market and not some big central government agency, right?

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Sure is great having this big, free market where winners and losers are chosen by the market and not some big central government agency, right?

Reality will win out eventually.  Diversify yo shit, protect ya neck. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89670

Posted
Posted

Remember the Senator(s) who had some interesting timing with their stock portfolios after getting covid briefings? Burr was claiming that he only made those movies from info he read on CNBC.  Well, the FBI busted out some search warrants on his cell phone and iCloud.  The Senator whose husband is the Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, who also made some stock moves around her covid briefing (including buying into one of the teleconferencing companies) sold/converted her stocks a month ago to avoid further controversy, and probably isn't going to get a knock from the FBI.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/14/fbi-seizes-sen-richard-burrs-phone-in-coronavirus-stock-sales-probe.html

Quote

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr turned over his cellphone to FBI agents in response to a search warrant served on him as part of a federal investigation of stock sales he  made early in the coronavirus outbreak, NBC News confirmed on Thursday.

Quote

New questions about Burr’s stock sales arose last week, when ProPublica reported that on the very day that Burr sold his stocks, Feb. 13, Burr’s brother-in-law, Trump appointee Gerald Fauth, also sold tens of thousands of dollars worth of stock.

I'm going to laugh if this is because of his BIL.  Because I've had a BIL that is capable of doing the same thing and not waiting at least a few days, and who would also text me about what he's doing.

"Hey Atom, after you told me about what you heard in that coronavirus briefing, I sold a bunch of stocks as well, thanks for the heads up Bro!!" 

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bernorange

bernorange 8361

Posted
Posted

Sometimes financial news will report on Fed actions as they learn of them, but the Fed generally doesn't publish such detail about their operations.  They issue press releases and statements about future intentions but never with specific details on timing.  They also publish a weekly update on their balance sheet on Thursday afternoons, so it's possible to do some analysis of their activities, but it's a higher level picture.

 

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted

Felt like a damn Wall Street wolf this morning. Got tired of watching my Exxon stock in parenthesis every day in my P/L Day column so I bought some puts yesterday mid-day. Sold them this morning at what looks like the low, on the button. Now my stock and my puts are positive for the day. The profits are only in the hundreds, but hell, that's money I didn't have yesterday.

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5550

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Take a conference call and my daily gain on my SPY puts was reduced by 80%. wtf brrrrt

morning open was a mistake, people actually forgot that the bad news was already priced in - people remember, markets are green.
this is also why my earliest expiry puts are now 6/30 and run all the way out to mid 2021.
sadly this shit is still to expensive to buy up - either to expensive in short term to fight the brrrr, or too expensive long-term to buy that much theta.

just a quick look at the put that I hold it looks like comparable puts today (similar time to expiry and $/% out of the money) are more than 2x as expensive, 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

morning open was a mistake, people actually forgot that the bad news was already priced in - people remember, markets are green.
this is also why my earliest expiry puts are now 6/30 and run all the way out to mid 2021.
sadly this shit is still to expensive to buy up - either to expensive in short term to fight the brrrr, or too expensive long-term to buy that much theta.

just a quick look at the put that I hold it looks like comparable puts today (similar time to expiry and $/% out of the money) are more than 2x as expensive, 

I went ahead and closed my little put hedge to take the win.  I think that I will regret doing that, maybe as early as close today or tomorrow. But a couple up days and it would have started bleeding out time value pretty quickly. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49188

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I went ahead and closed my little put hedge to take the win.  I think that I will regret doing that, maybe as early as close today or tomorrow. But a couple up days and it would have started bleeding out time value pretty quickly. 

Profits are always good...

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

I went ahead and closed my little put hedge to take the win. I think that I will regret doing that, maybe as early as close today or tomorrow. But a couple up days and it would have started bleeding out time value pretty quickly. 

LOL.

source.gif

 

 

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted

Fed (Powell) yesterday - We will continue to use all of the tools we have deployed, but will not go to negative interest rates . . . yet. 

Market this morning - no negative interest rates? Boo. 

Market later in the morning - wait - the Fed just signaled yesterday they will continue using the printing press at warp speed. Buy, Buy, Buy.

Blackrock is the Fed's agent for their purchases, by the way.

Good luck. You are swimming with sharks. But as of right now, they have the spigots wide open trying to stave off deflationary gales battering the economy. Inflate or die. 

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hornbri

hornbri 1398

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Fed (Powell) yesterday - We will continue to use all of the tools we have deployed, but will not go to negative interest rates . . . yet. 

Market this morning - no negative interest rates? Boo. 

Market later in the morning - wait - the Fed just signaled yesterday they will continue using the printing press at warp speed. Buy, Buy, Buy.

Blackrock is the Fed's agent for their purchases, by the way.

Good luck. You are swimming with sharks. But as of right now, they have the spigots wide open trying to stave off deflationary gales battering the economy. Inflate or die. 

I believe the whitehouse also indicated support for round 4 of stimulus around the time the market turned around. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted
Just now, hornbri said:

I believe the whitehouse also indicated support for round 4 of stimulus around the time the market turned around. 

Good point. Powell (the Fed) called on elected officials yesterday to provide a fiscal stimulus - saying the Fed could not do all the heavy lifting. This shows some level of monetary and fiscal coordination to deal with this economic crisis. A positive for the market.

One other observation - some bears are becoming bearish on the bearish market sentiment. 

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Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders 1336

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Fed (Powell) yesterday - We will continue to use all of the tools we have deployed, but will not go to negative interest rates . . . yet. 

Market this morning - no negative interest rates? Boo. 

Market later in the morning - wait - the Fed just signaled yesterday they will continue using the printing press at warp speed. Buy, Buy, Buy.

Blackrock is the Fed's agent for their purchases, by the way.

Good luck. You are swimming with sharks. But as of right now, they have the spigots wide open trying to stave off deflationary gales battering the economy. Inflate or die. 

So this is probably a dumb question, but what is the ultimate design of this policy?  If it's political, which it's not supposed to be, prop up the markets long enough for the elections?  Even now some of these P/E ratios are becoming obscene, I can't imagine what they will be if the markets remain this high for Q2 earnings. So I can't see a scenario where this doesn't end in a massive sell off regardless of Fed actions prior to November.  Maybe it was originally a fake it to you make it, hoping for a vaccine or something, but I can't see that now.  Maybe I'm missing something.  

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2724

Posted
Posted
So this is probably a dumb question, but what is the ultimate design of this policy?  If it's political, which it's not supposed to be, prop up the markets long enough for the elections?  Even now some of these P/E ratios are becoming obscene, I can't imagine what they will be if the markets remain this high for Q2 earnings. So I can't see a scenario where this doesn't end in a massive sell off regardless of Fed actions prior to November.  Maybe it was originally a fake it to you make it, hoping for a vaccine or something, but I can't see that now.  Maybe I'm missing something.  

The entire design is to avoid deflation as washpark noted. Every PhD economist studied the depression and the debt deflationary spiral associated with it.
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

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Posted

Until companies are held to their corporate governance standards and forced to provide some guidance this shit will keep going on and on.  They already got one quarterly report free of responsibility so they hope this virus shit is over with by the next time they have to hold the next conference call.  If not they will keep kicking the “lack of guidance” can down the road as long as they are allowed to.

I would like to see some big buy side shop threaten to sue the fuck out of the IBs for maintaining buy ratings on stocks with no guidance being provided.  Lay the ground work for when shit finally does come home to roost, unemployment is 50%, the S&P 500 is 3-digits, people are starving in the streets (that happened before all this, but I’m talking about former middle class white people now) and some Senator can get up in a subcommittee hearing and say:  

Senator:  “Is it true you increased your price target on 90% of all S&P companies while unemployment increased by 500% and GDP was expected to decline by in your own estimates at least 25%?  All while you were provided absolutely no guidance from any of these companies?  Because to me that sounds like the ultimate ‘flying blind’ scenario and it rarely works out well for the passengers on the plane.”

Banker:  “Yes, Senator that is true.”

Senator:  “How can you justify that and sleep at night?”

Banker:  “Yo dawg, that shit priced in.  And brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrtttttttttttt, mother fucker.”

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