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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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bernorange

bernorange 8359

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

So just buy BlackRock and wait it out?  

You want a good laugh?

Quote

...
To address concerns, the contract calls for the New York Fed to make almost all of the buying decisions, with BlackRock executing trades -- removing it from having to pick “winners” and “losers” in the debt markets. State Street Bank will be the custodian of the assets.

“BlackRock is acting as a fiduciary to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,” the firm said in a written statement. “As such, BlackRock will execute this mandate at the sole discretion of the bank, and in accordance with their detailed investment guidelines, in order to provide broad support to credit markets and achieve the government’s objective of supporting access to credit for U.S. employers and supporting the American economy.”

The document also outlines an “ethical wall” segregating the BlackRock team managing the government-bond operations from personnel throughout the rest of the firm’s trading, brokerage and sales operations. Staffers working on BlackRock’s Fed-backed program won’t be allowed to provide investment advice to anyone but the special-purpose vehicle created by the Fed, known as Corporate Credit Facilities LLC.

BlackRock will run the government’s bond-buying program through its Financial Management Advisory Group, which is separate from its other investment and advisory services.
...

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/blackrocks-role-as-fed-adviser-confers-more-clout-than-fees

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted (edited)

Clout is worth more - over time. 

I would think BlackRock is not happy about having to maintain a media presence - again. But then maybe they are ready for the big time. They are the big dog. Looks like they are trying out for a big role in whatever comes next. That does make them worth more. I think they had a more subdued role in response to the 2007-2008 Great Recession.   I admire their preparation. The fiscal response needs to be calming. BlackRock (despite its silly name) has the capacity to calm. That is a positive for this market. Until they screw up, they can start undergirding these market levels. BlackRock will have suggestions. Doing this job for cheap is a sign of good will. Minimal profit for the duration would instill trust in the market and its institutions for BlackRock. Staying out of the legislative process should be required. I truly hope they succeed in whatever role they assume.

This market is an indication of confidence in the plan. The market is not the real economy. But the real economy will affect this market - especially if a fiscal response is slow in coming. You are going to hear some big numbers as bailout and stimulus expand from the Federal Reserve (the monetary response) to the fiscal side of things. 

A trillion dollar number on the monetary side has become quite common. When a fiscal response requrires a trillion dollars, some people get the vapors. Some of those vapors are overblown. The monetary response is begun first for many reasons. Being first has its advantages especially as trillions were already spent - on the monetary side..

The fiscal side is noisy. They have their traditions and methods. That noise will batter the market's confidence, but the Fed will still be pumping. The Fed wants to flatten the curve is a way of looking at it. The market has a lot of potential and capacity. But as Bern called out before the present troubles - it is vulnerable to massive economic shocks. We had one. 

Stay salty. Fast market. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89652

Posted
Posted

Facebook bought Giphy to integrate it into Instagram.  Which will probably fuck up Giphy and cause people to use something else.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/facebook-buys-gif-company-giphy-and-plans-to-integrate-it-with-instagram.html

Quote

Facebook announced Friday it is acquiring the animated-picture platform Giphy.

Axios first reported the deal early Friday and said it is valued at roughly $400 million.

Facebook said its planning to further integrate Giphy into the Instagram app “so that people can find just the right way to express themselves.” Giphy will continue to operate its library, Facebook said. 

Giphy is a library of GIFs that can integrate with other apps. Companies like Slack and Twitter have built Giphy into their apps. Apple also uses some Giphy images for its GIF feature in iMessage. It’s unclear if Facebook will end those relationships to keep Giphy only on Facebook’s apps. Instagram said in a tweet that third parties will still be allowed to use Giphy images.

If you had told me 20 years ago that a company serving up GIFs is worth $400 million..

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1648

Posted
Posted

Sigh, what could have been. I need to trade with less emotion.

I got completely out of the market on march 1st. (A week after the market started to fall...I'm happy with that)

I got completely back in on March 31st (again, a week after the bottom...I happy with that was well.)

Getting greedy and not cashing out was the mistake.  I finally sold everything today and had a return of about 4% (after taxes) for a month and a half. Not to bad, but...

If I had followed my guy and gotten back out at the end of April, I might have had a 18%-20% return... In a month.  I sat there staring at the screen thinking this can't possibly go any higher, right?  I should sell now, right?   But that little voice in my head was like 'what if it does go higher. how cool would that be. Remember brrrrrrrrtttt and all that jazz".  Stupid voice.

 

So now I'm on the sidelines and I wait and watch for another buy-low opportunity.  I'm not alone in thinking the market is going to crash again.  Between economic news and a world-wide CV19 resurgence due to re-opening, I think the next month and a half are going to suck.  I'm not advanced/savvy enough to start shorting things, so I'll just wait for the market to go low and buy back in. 

 

 

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted

Misery is part of the game. Full confession time, I had an embarrassing fuck up on Monday. Bought 10 times as many logitech calls as I had intended because I was just flying through and not paying attention. Immediate gut punch when I realized, but I decided to let it ride. By the end of the day, I was down 10x more than I was comfortable with. I basically had half of my liquidity in this trade.

This was the day of earnings. They blow it out of the water, but the candle is magically red for the day. Real red. The high happened in the first 10 minutes of trading that day. I wake up the next morning to it popping 4% in the overnight. Perfect. Just gotta cash out at even and call it a day. Tons of volatility out of the gate, I can't seem to get a hit at break even, though, so I sell at about a 10% loss when it was over 30% at the end of the prior day. I check a little later and if I would have just relaxed and trusted my TA, I would have been up 40%, at one point. But I don't have the stomach for half of my liquidity riding on one trade. That mistake cost me about a week's worth of gains. I dug around in Thinkorswim and changed the default buy amount to make sure that never happens again.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19190

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Sigh, what could have been. I need to trade with less emotion.

I got completely out of the market on march 1st. (A week after the market started to fall...I'm happy with that)

I got completely back in on March 31st (again, a week after the bottom...I happy with that was well.)

Getting greedy and not cashing out was the mistake.  I finally sold everything today and had a return of about 4% (after taxes) for a month and a half. Not to bad, but...

If I had followed my guy and gotten back out at the end of April, I might have had a 18%-20% return... In a month.  I sat there staring at the screen thinking this can't possibly go any higher, right?  I should sell now, right?   But that little voice in my head was like 'what if it does go higher. how cool would that be. Remember brrrrrrrrtttt and all that jazz".  Stupid voice.

 

So now I'm on the sidelines and I wait and watch for another buy-low opportunity.  I'm not alone in thinking the market is going to crash again.  Between economic news and a world-wide CV19 resurgence due to re-opening, I think the next month and a half are going to suck.  I'm not advanced/savvy enough to start shorting things, so I'll just wait for the market to go low and buy back in. 

 

 

No idea what investments your "guy" had you in, but just using the S&P 500 index you would be up 11.1% by selling out on the days you say you got out and buying on the days you say you got back in.  You may want to have some words with "your guy".

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1746

Posted
Posted

It seems like everybody is in this market purely on FOMO right now. When things go south people are going to cash out and fast. It doesn’t help that a number of people are sitting on gains from the rebound that they aren’t going to risk losing.

It’s like a game of musical chairs where everybody expects there to be fewer chairs after each round but they all stay put. Then half of them are going to get removed all at once and everybody is standing around looking at each other.

Other than my long term holds, I’m just selling puts with 5 day expiration dates. This can trade sideways forever as far as I’m concerned.

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4thgenhorn

4thgenhorn 38

Posted
Posted

More of investment mindset or goal discussion, do you guys outline specific return metrics you try to reach?  Like X% return weekly/monthly, or just keep making MORE?  The problem with the later is that it’s not actually achievable...I find myself in that camp these days.

 

Years ago if I had a big purchase like a new PC or phone, I’d challenge myself to manufacture that via options or a trade.  I’ve not done that in a while, and it’s just a MORE ambiguous goal; maybe outperform S&P.

 

One goal Id like is to add more short covered calls as a percentage of NW. My issue is I sell em on my speculative pics where you get a lot of premium, but that ultimately is a small percentage. Shorting calls on index funds doesn’t give that juicy return.  
 

Anyway, curious what others use as your personal performance benchmark or goals.
 

 

 

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted

How the Fed Chair perform on 60 Minutes this evening may sway the markets as they open in Asia, Europe and then the US. I am not hearing anything earth shattering, but he is putting pressure on a sufficient fiscal response, in the sense of a Pontius Pilate washing his hands. And we know the fiscal response will be another lesson in disfunction. The Fed has been good for the market using the rationale - "why let everything crash." In a very real sense, Powell and the Fed may be the most powerful actors in the economy at this point. 

The transcript - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jerome-powell-federal-reserve-chairman-60-minutes-interview-2019-03-10/

 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9939

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, bernorange said:

@washparkhorn - Your link was published on March 10.  Is that for a new episode airing tonight, or one that aired two months ago?

Thanks Bern. Here is the link/transcript for this evening (but please correct if incorrect). https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jerome-powell-federal-reserve-economic-crisis-coronavirus-pandemic-60-minutes-2020-05-17/

 

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hornbri

hornbri 1397

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, bluto said:

Saudi wealth (not wreath) fund went stonking buying half a million bucks of various blue chips here and there.

half a Billion bucks of various blue chips. 

Quote

The PIF's largest new holdings included a $714 million stake in Boeing, $522 million stakes in both Citigroup and Facebook, and a $514 million stake in Marriott. It also revealed stakes worth between $480 million and $500 million in Disney, Cisco, and Suncor Energy.

 

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5543

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, bluto said:

Saudi wealth (not wreath) fund went stonking buying half a million bucks of various blue chips here and there.

That seems odd to me - half a million buck is what the Saudis can find in their couch, can you link because I'm guessing it's more like half a billion, or in today's news cycle maybe half a trillion

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