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Markets still falling like whoa

Llano Estacado

By Llano Estacado
in Business and Markets

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Eastwood
Eastwood

That's why I'm out. There is no end game, IMO. This has to be fixed outside of the market and I got too nervous about what that entails for retail investors. They will always be last on the list, if o

Rusty Shackelford
Rusty Shackelford
Eastwood
Eastwood

I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advise. I don't work in finance. I do not have a degree in finance. Actually, I have a BA and I'm bad at math past Cal I. I won't apologize for the l

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bullzak

bullzak 422

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

For the life of me, I can't figure out why people go with hedge funds.

In aggregate hedge funds are just fee extraction devices. Net of fee returns as a class have been shit and probably always will be. 

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49329

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

For the life of me, I can't figure out why people go with hedge funds.  

 

15 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

i heard if  you give them enough money, the fund manager sends an analyst to take you out for dinner

Maybe trip to the Mediterranean...

0timx64adfo41.png

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted

I think I have 1% allocated to hedge funds.  They seesaw all over the place.  Mine lost less than overall market during the crash and also lagged behind gains during the nice run we had.  And they charge way more.  I guess I’m too lazy to make a move and it’s not a significant amount.  
 

Much bigger believer in PE funds.  

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Baconboy

Baconboy 135

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, fattyflattie said:

I should have gotten on OKE a month or so ago when it was in dumps.  Oh well.  Im dropping XOM as soon as I can get back to even.   CVX will take its place.  

If you think CVS is going to outperform XOM then why wait?

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4638

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Baconboy said:

If you think CVS is going to outperform XOM then why wait?

Because I don’t want to take that L quite yet.  I think they’ll out perform them, but don’t know if they’ll outperform them enough to make up for the losses for awhile.  When I jumped in heavy on XOM, I was choosing between them and CVX and chose poorly.  XOM did ok, CVX crushed it.  I’ve been able to avg pretty far down but not there yet. I think I’ll be able to get out even at some point in nearish future and collect divs in the meantime. But when I do sell out, I think that chunk will be heavily favored back in on CVX. Obviously things change, but I have more faith in them.  

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10521

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

How’s that? 

If you’re convinced that CVX will outperform XOM, then swap out. What difference does it make if you’re taking a loss?  Depending on your situation, it might even be beneficial from a tax standpoint. 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5573

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

If you’re convinced that CVX will outperform XOM, then swap out. What difference does it make if you’re taking a loss?  Depending on your situation, it might even be beneficial from a tax standpoint. 

Agree - too many people hold for sentimental or emotional reasons - don't want to take a loss, made money on it before, etc.....stocks have no conscience or memory, if you think CVX is a better opportunity then why not buy it from the proceeds of something with a lessor chance
(there can be tax reasons to not sell things with gains, as that can trigger tax liabilities...but to hold onto losses until you regain your entry point is mind bottling)
 

Spoiler

 

 

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4638

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

If you’re convinced that CVX will outperform XOM, then swap out. What difference does it make if you’re taking a loss?  Depending on your situation, it might even be beneficial from a tax standpoint. 

Both loooong term holds, and while I think CVX will do better, I don’t think it’ll be good enough to negate current loss. I’ve avg’d down enough to where a break even is possible, maybe even probable.  I don’t think either are going to go thru the roof anytime soon.  I don’t believe the small opportunity cost is worth it right now.   It’s literally money that will be tied only into O&G long plays, so really the only opportunity cost is if CVX explodes and XOM slides or loses.  This isn’t money I plan to put in Microsoft or Tesla. This is strictly OG $$. 

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Rougarou

Rougarou 594

Posted
Posted (edited)

made a mint getting lucky so I pulled it all out: rode NCLH today to $13 and dumped, I see it's back to $12.50, sold Peloton at/near the 52 week high and while I left some money on the table at CYH, I made thousands selling close to $3.

It's stressful and it feels good like winning $25k a the craps table, but also scary and don't want to go through it again. The up and downs with AAL the last week before I got back to nearly break even and selling was what ruined it for me.

Edited by Rougarou
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Baconboy

Baconboy 135

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Both loooong term holds, and while I think CVX will do better, I don’t think it’ll be good enough to negate current loss. I’ve avg’d down enough to where a break even is possible, maybe even probable.  I don’t think either are going to go thru the roof anytime soon.  I don’t believe the small opportunity cost is worth it right now.   It’s literally money that will be tied only into O&G long plays, so really the only opportunity cost is if CVX explodes and XOM slides or loses.  This isn’t money I plan to put in Microsoft or Tesla. This is strictly OG $$. 

The part in bold is a common emotional error investors make. The past is the past. Whether you're up or down on an individual stock should have no impact on your decision to sell, hold, or buy more (unless you want to go ahead and book a loss for tax purposes). The future is all that matters. If you think CVX will outperform XOM then you should dump XOM and pick up CVX as there is no benefit to breaking even on XOM if you could have made more owning CVX. In fact, this is the perfect opportunity for you effectively do a wash sale that won't be subject to wash sale rules if you simply replace XOM with CVX in your portfolio.

For the record I'm long XOM and think it will outperform CVX over the next two years. Just trying to offer some unsolicited advice without coming across like the surly asshole I am.

 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12036

Posted
Posted (edited)

Did the fed's printing press break?

What the hell happened in the last hour of trading.

I was busy looking at property tax data today and only looked at the market this morning when we were in still full Brrrrttttttt mode.

What gives?

Edited by Dnaguy
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Incredulity

Incredulity 11682

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Did the fed's printing press break?

What the hell happened in the last hour of trading.

I was busy looking at property tax data today and only looked at the market this morning when we were in still full Brrrrttttttt mode.

What gives?

Someone released an article claiming Moderna’s vaccine claims are dubious at best.

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Captainant

Captainant 27723

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Someone released an article claiming Moderna’s vaccine claims are dubious at best.

 

17 hours ago, Captainant said:

The CEO of Moderna has been dumping stock since that announcement. And our sitting vaccine Czar has $10m in call options in Moderna as well. 

I hope that the news turns out to be as good as the early preliminary data looks, but this doesn't feel unlike a pump and dump

 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted

Moderna is a garbage company.  I’d bet a lot of money they are NOT the ones that come out e the vaccine.  Had them short already.  Wish I added to those positions yesterday.  
 

Look at how their rep made outlandish claims in Trump’s round table.  Then bozo gave them a ton of funding.  No surprise to see any of this.  

In my and many others views their theory for making vaccines like they do is pie in the sky type bullshit.  

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3335

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Moderna is a garbage company.  I’d bet a lot of money they are NOT the ones that come out e the vaccine.  Had them short already.  Wish I added to those positions yesterday.  
 

Look at how their rep made outlandish claims in Trump’s round table.  Then bozo gave them a ton of funding.  No surprise to see any of this.  

In my and many others views their theory for making vaccines like they do is pie in the sky type bullshit.  

I would be interested in your thoughts on ALT - Altimmune - if you have any such thoughts.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49329

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Someone released an article claiming Moderna’s vaccine claims are dubious at best.

OUCH...

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

71.67-8.33 (-10.41%)

At close: 4:00PM EDT

67.36 -4.31 (-6.01%)
After hours: 7:59PM EDT

Edited by LTtxfan
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21154

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

I would be interested in your thoughts on ALT - Altimmune - if you have any such thoughts.

Much more reputable.  And the mechanism of action of their vaccine is more believable.  They also have a stronger profile of drugs in the pipeline imo.  

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Harrison Stafford

Harrison Stafford 3335

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Much more reputable.  And the mechanism of action of their vaccine is more believable.  They also have a stronger profile of drugs in the pipeline imo.  

Am in ALT bigly at an avg. price of $3.35.  It’s my Covid lottery ticket.  

Edited by Harrison Stafford
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5573

Posted
Posted

Reports of huge increases in unpaid credit cards and car loans, it should mean trouble for the lenders .... but we all know it just means that Stevie the Munchkin and JPow will have to fire up their brrrrrrrrrrrr stimulus machines

https://www.wsj.com/articles/millions-of-americans-skip-credit-card-and-car-payments-11589985381?tesla=y&mod=article_inline

Quote

Millions of people are behind on their credit-card and auto-loan payments, the latest sign of the coronavirus pandemic’s financial devastation.

Lenders in April had nearly 15 million credit cards in “financial hardship” programs, such as deferral programs that let borrowers temporarily stop making payments, according to estimates by credit-reporting firm TransUnion. That accounts for about 3% of the credit-card accounts the company tracks, TransUnion said Wednesday.

Nearly three million auto loans were in these hardship programs, accounting for about 3.5% of those tracked.

The numbers have surged from a year ago, when 0.03% of credit cards and about 0.5% of auto loans were in financial-hardship programs.

 

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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5573

Posted
Posted

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-day-coronavirus-nearly-broke-the-financial-markets-11589982288?mod=hp_lead_pos5

 

Quote

An urgent call reached Ronald O’Hanley, State Street Corp.’s chief executive, as he sat in his office in downtown Boston. It was 8 a.m. on Monday, March 16.

A senior deputy told him corporate treasurers and pension managers, panicked by the growing economic damage from the Covid-19 pandemic, were pulling billions of dollars from certain money-market funds. This was forcing the funds to try to sell some of the bonds they held.

But there were almost no buyers. Everybody was suddenly desperate for cash.

He and the deputy, asset-management executive Cyrus Taraporevala, had spoken the night before, wrestling with how investors would respond to an emergency interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

 

Now, they had their answer. In his 34 years in finance, Mr. O’Hanley had weathered plenty of meltdowns, but never one like this.

“The market is fearing the worst,” Mr. O’Hanley told him.

March 16 was the day a microscopic virus brought the financial system to the brink. Few realized how close it came to going over the edge entirely.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 13% that day, the second-biggest one-day fall in history. Stock-market volatility spiked to a record high. Investors struggled to unload even safe bonds, like Treasurys. Companies and government officials were losing access to the lending markets on which they rely to make payroll and build schools 

Prime money-market funds that are owned by big institutional investors and buy a lot of short-term corporate debt—normally safe and boring—had outflows of $60 billion in the week ending that Wednesday, financial-data firm Refinitiv said, among the worst ever. Some $56 billion in client money fled bond funds.

Interest rates on short-term corporate debt surged, peaking on March 25 at 2.43 percentage points above the federal-funds rate—the highest it has been since October 2008, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

.

The financial system has endured numerous credit crunches and market crashes, and memories of the 1987 and 2008 crises set a high bar for market dysfunction. But longtime investors and those who make a living on Wall Street say mid-March of this year was far more severe in a short period. Moreover, the stresses to the financial system were broader than many had seen.

“The 2008 financial crisis was a car crash in slow motion,” said Adam Lollos, head of short-term credit at Citigroup Inc. “This was like, ‘Boom!’ ”

A barrage of government programs has since pulled the system back from collapse. This account of what happened on one of the worst days the financial markets have ever seen, from many of the executives, money managers and Wall Street veterans who lived it, shows why the rescue effort was so urgent.

The Federal Reserve set the stage for the downturn on Sunday, March 15. Most investors were expecting the central bank to announce its latest response to the crisis the following Wednesday. Instead, it announced at 5 p.m. that evening that it was slashing interest rates and planning to buy $700 billion in bonds to help unclog the markets

Rather than take comfort in the Fed’s actions, many companies, governments, bankers and investors viewed the decision as reason to prepare for the worst possible outcome from the coronavirus pandemic.

A downdraft in bonds was now a rout.

Mr. O’Hanley was in a good position to see the crisis unfold. His bank provides vital, if unheralded, administrative and bookkeeping services for most of the world’s biggest investors, and runs its own trillion-dollar money manager.

 

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bernorange

bernorange 8363

Posted
Posted

I read that WSJ bit with Goldman Sach's "This isn't 2008" note echoing in the back of my mind and laugh.  So credit card loans in hardship have increased ten fold over "normal".  I saw a report a while back that consumer spending (on credit cards) was down something like 40% since March.  This is the Fed's nightmare.  Credit markets are going to be super stressed because companies and consumers don't have cash flow to make loan payments.  Loan defaults are going to put increasing stress on the banking system.

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bernorange

bernorange 8363

Posted
Posted
On 5/14/2020 at 10:15 PM, bernorange said:

You want a good laugh?

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/blackrocks-role-as-fed-adviser-confers-more-clout-than-fees

spacer.png

Part 2:

Quote

...
But BlackRock’s contract with the Fed also acknowledges that senior executives “may sit atop of the information barrier” and “have access to confidential information on one side of a wall while carrying out duties on the other side.” ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/how-larry-fink-s-blackrock-is-helping-the-fed-with-bond-buying?srnd=premium

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Brew

Brew 3049

Posted
Posted

Bank call yesterday for a large regional bank said they were expecting 31% of their mortgages to be paid late or potentially go into default. They didn’t get into the background of where they came up with the numbers, but it was interesting nonetheless. Still a lot of unknowns in front of us.

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Captainant

Captainant 27723

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bernorange said:

I read that WSJ bit with Goldman Sach's "This isn't 2008" note echoing in the back of my mind and laugh.  So credit card loans in hardship have increased ten fold over "normal".  I saw a report a while back that consumer spending (on credit cards) was down something like 40% since March.  This is the Fed's nightmare.  Credit markets are going to be super stressed because companies and consumers don't have cash flow to make loan payments.  Loan defaults are going to put increasing stress on the banking system.

Nevermind all of the businesses that may not need office space any more, further devaluing commercial real estate and putting that rent revenue further into the red. Brrrrrrt works for the big banks to stay solvent, but somehow none of that liquidity managed to trickle down

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