Markets still falling like whoa

[LTtxfan 49,170]

On 5/19/2020 at 11:23 PM, ChiTownDoc said:

Much more reputable.  And the mechanism of action of their vaccine is more believable.  They also have a stronger profile of drugs in the pipeline imo.  

ALT.... Up 23% yesterday

[bernorange 8,359]

Quote

U.S. banks have long looked with pity at overseas lenders coping with negative interest rates. Now, they’re grappling with the fear they may join the crowd.

Negative rates -- especially if they persist for many years -- reduce the spread banks make between lending and borrowing because they cannot pass the negative rate onto most depositors. Coupled with surging defaults due to an economic downturn, they can sap profits out of the banking system even if they create an initial jump in lending. That toxic combination has crippled Europe’s banks in the last six years, a dreaded position their U.S. peers would like to avoid.

“Initially, there’s a sugar rush when negative rates are introduced,” said Alberto Gallo, head of macro strategies at London-based hedge fund Algebris Investments. “But ultimately, over time, you zombify the banks by lowering the velocity of money. Negative rates are a bad idea.”

Surging provisions for bad loans have already eaten into U.S. bank profits, with the top six firms seeing their first-quarter income decline by about 60%.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/specter-of-negative-rates-is-putting-wall-street-bankers-on-edge?srnd=premium

Bold emphasis was mine. 

[closetohumping 17,438]

I dumped mod on Tuesday.   Had some fomo until about 635 this am.   It dropped 5 bucks in five minutes

[Blotto 23,497]

Meanwhile, the nasdaq is up close to 10% on the year. seems rational. But upon further consideration, when the top 10 stocks are worth 30% of the index performance, I guess it does make sense.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Blotto

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

18 minutes ago, Blotto said:

when the top 10 stocks are worth 30% of the index performance, I guess it does make sense.

This is exactly what happened just prior to the dotcom crash.

[Captainant 27,654]

How on earth could there be a bubble in the market?? For that to happen you'd need some institution-sized investor pumping unheard of amounts of liquidity into a market and buying up otherwise unsellable assets

[bullzak 421]

First rule of investing is "dont fight the Fed." 

They have been a big player in markets way before twitter. 

We can argue about whether that makes sense or not but to deny it and say its unfair is folly. 

Personally I think its gone up way too far and too fast. Thats great for me but I sure as shit wouldn't be a buyer in here. Better entry points have to be coming once all the BK start rolling through. Even the Fed cant stop that. 

[closetohumping 17,438]

This is get punched in the nuts day

[Beau Vine 54,211]

On 5/19/2020 at 10:08 AM, Aqua Buddha said:

For the life of me, I can't figure out why people go with hedge funds.  

 

On 5/19/2020 at 10:20 AM, bullzak said:

In aggregate hedge funds are just fee extraction devices. Net of fee returns as a class have been shit and probably always will be. 

Those guys can apparently sell ice to eskimos.  

[Beau Vine 54,211]

4 hours ago, Brew said:

Bank call yesterday for a large regional bank said they were expecting 31% of their mortgages to be paid late or potentially go into default. They didn’t get into the background of where they came up with the numbers, but it was interesting nonetheless. Still a lot of unknowns in front of us.

Forgive me for being optimistic (it's really not like me), but this seems to be a better situation than 2008, when people who could pay their mortgages were defaulting on them because they were so underwater.  It's much easier to salvage a problem mortgage where the borrower can't pay because of temporary unemployment than one that has a 1.3 L-V ratio.

[bernorange 8,359]

Well, as things play out, we might get the "best of both worlds" (unemployment + underwater) if the real estate markets crash.

[LTtxfan 49,170]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

This is exactly what happened just prior to the dotcom crash.

 

J-POW PARTY LIKE IT'S 1999... BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

                                      RIP PRINCE...

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by LTtxfan

[ChiTownDoc 21,151]

Paypal.  Was 120 July 2019...150ish today.  Can't tell me cashless isn't going to continue to gain.  They have venmo which keeps growing too. 

Overall I feel like buying - which mean shit will crash out of left field. 

[closetohumping 17,438]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Paypal.  Was 120 July 2019...150ish today.  Can't tell me cashless isn't going to continue to gain.  They have venmo which keeps growing too. 

Overall I feel like buying - which mean shit will crash out of left field. 

Just waiting on my btc to hit

[ChiTownDoc 21,151]

8 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Just waiting on my btc to hit

I'll buy in if we get back around 8500...

[ZB'Tejas 593]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I'll buy in if we get back around 8500...

Next stop for me will be 8200

[52-80 19,150]

39 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Paypal.  Was 120 July 2019...150ish today.  Can't tell me cashless isn't going to continue to gain.  They have venmo which keeps growing too. 

Overall I feel like buying - which mean shit will crash out of left field. 

PayPal is old and busted.  Square is new hotness.

 

Actually, stripe, if they ever IPO

[ChiTownDoc 21,151]

10 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

PayPal is old and busted.  Square is new hotness.

 

Actually, stripe, if they ever IPO

Paypal is flush with cash.  They can keep buying shit - like stripe.  The beauty is no matter wtf you buy online they offer a paypal option to pay, it's a 100x easier than filling out your credit card info.  I'm not seeing square or stripe yet - not saying they won't get there.  I think there's room for all of them to run.  And venmo is on fire...that's paypal.  

[bullzak 421]

2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Forgive me for being optimistic (it's really not like me), but this seems to be a better situation than 2008, when people who could pay their mortgages were defaulting on them because they were so underwater.  It's much easier to salvage a problem mortgage where the borrower can't pay because of temporary unemployment than one that has a 1.3 L-V ratio.

Also the banks have no interest in foreclosure. They ended up eating a ton of shit in 2008 on their foreclosed inventory. That model died as a bank money maker a long time ago. 

Extend and recap. Going to be a ton of that. 

[Wally Fairway 5,543]

4 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

This is exactly what happened just prior to the dotcom crash.

damn you must be old
 

Spoiler

just like me

 

[Beau Vine 54,211]

46 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Also the banks have no interest in foreclosure. They ended up eating a ton of shit in 2008 on their foreclosed inventory. That model died as a bank money maker a long time ago. 

Extend and recap. Going to be a ton of that. 

Exactly -- foreclosure is a last resort for banks, because it guarantees that they're going to lose money.

[The People’s Elbow 707]

4 hours ago, bullzak said:

First rule of investing is "dont fight the Fed." 

They have been a big player in markets way before twitter. 

We can argue about whether that makes sense or not but to deny it and say its unfair is folly. 

Personally I think its gone up way too far and too fast. Thats great for me but I sure as shit wouldn't be a buyer in here. Better entry points have to be coming once all the BK start rolling through. Even the Fed cant stop that. 

What does Burger King have to do with this? 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

PayPal is old and busted.  Square is new hotness.

 

Actually, stripe, if they ever IPO

I picked up a bunch of PayPal a month ago because Venmo is going to be a big winner long term, imo.  I do like Sqaure too.  I've got about 3x more in PayPal than Square.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

Don't know what to do with PBT.  Its chart over the last 10 years looks like Der Stuka.  Can it keep going down forever?

Edited May 21, 2020 by BehoId, The Underminer!

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

NVDA earnings coming out any minute now.  Could be fun.

[Tailgate 3,021]

I’m long NVDA....absolute fan boy of their products.

[Captainant 27,654]

1 minute ago, Tailgate said:

I’m long NVDA....absolute fan boy of their products.

if you're working from home and have a 10XX or newer GPU, you should install RTX voice for filtering out background noise on outgoing mic and incoming audio on conference calls. It's fucking miraculous

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

I'm going to buy their stock just to fuck you up.

Just kidding. 

[Tailgate 3,021]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

if you're working from home and have a 10XX or newer GPU, you should install RTX voice for filtering out background noise on outgoing mic and incoming audio on conference calls. It's fucking miraculous

I have a 1080 in my gaming PC. Downloaded Doom Eternal a week ago...mind blown. I’ll check out RTX...thanks.

[52-80 19,150]

NVDA calls have been offsetting my other options plays souring out.  Thank you nerdy overlords

[Captainant 27,654]

27 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

I have a 1080 in my gaming PC. Downloaded Doom Eternal a week ago...mind blown. I’ll check out RTX...thanks.

you need to tweak an install file to get it to install with a 10XX series card, but it's pretty straight forward. Only uses like 3-4% GPU while active on my 1080ti

[Baconboy 135]

24 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

NVDA calls have been offsetting my other options plays souring out.  Thank you nerdy overlords

CSB: 4 or 5 years ago when NVDA was at like $38/share I got one of those typical cold calls from a fresh-out-of-school kid with a strong NY accent begging me to listen to his one tip and if it worked out promise I'd give him more to invest. His whole pitch was about NVDA and for the first time ever I thought to myself, "this pitch actually makes sense." I of course did nothing.

That's probably about the same time I bought PBT, which I'm still holding. Stonks!

Edited May 21, 2020 by Baconboy

[Captainant 27,654]

35 minutes ago, Baconboy said:

CSB: 4 or 5 years ago when NVDA was at like $38/share I got one of those typical cold calls from a fresh-out-of-school kid with a strong NY accent begging me to listen to his one tip and if it worked out promise I'd give him more to invest. His whole pitch was about NVDA and for the first time ever I thought to myself, "this pitch actually makes sense." I of course did nothing.

That's probably about the same time I bought PBT, which I'm still holding. Stonks!

4 or 5 years ago was right before BTC went hockeystick too, which was one of the biggest drivers in NVDA's growth. RIP RIP potato chip

Guess you should buy some AyyyyyyMD just to make sure you don't miss out on that boat too 😛

[52-80 19,150]

59 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

NVDA calls have been offsetting my other options plays souring out.  Thank you nerdy overlords

Well, this aftermarket kinda sucks.  But I also got Palo Alto Networks so

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Fed Has Purchased $1.8 Billion of Corporate-Bond ETFs So Far

May 21, 2020, 3:40 PM CDT

Federal Reserve purchases of exchanged-traded funds invested in corporate debt totaled $1.8 billion in the first six days of the program, according to data published Thursday.

The ETF purchases, which are part of an emergency lending program aimed at backstopping corporate debt markets during the coronavirus pandemic, were revealed in the U.S. central bank’s weekly balance sheet update. The data also showed total assets held by the Fed rose to a record $7.04 trillion in the week through May 20.

The Fed began buying ETFs through its so-called Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility on May 12. Under the program, it plans to make both outright purchases of corporate bonds as well as ETFs invested in the asset class, including potentially some sub-investment grade debt.

The weekly balance sheet data don’t disclose which ETFs the Fed bought, though the central bank has said it will disclose the names of borrowers participating in the program at least once a month.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/fed-has-purchased-1-8-billion-of-corporate-bond-etfs-so-far

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

8 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Fed Has Purchased $1.8 Billion of Corporate-Bond ETFs So Far

May 21, 2020, 3:40 PM CDT

Federal Reserve purchases of exchanged-traded funds invested in corporate debt totaled $1.8 billion in the first six days of the program, according to data published Thursday.

The ETF purchases, which are part of an emergency lending program aimed at backstopping corporate debt markets during the coronavirus pandemic, were revealed in the U.S. central bank’s weekly balance sheet update. The data also showed total assets held by the Fed rose to a record $7.04 trillion in the week through May 20.

The Fed began buying ETFs through its so-called Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility on May 12. Under the program, it plans to make both outright purchases of corporate bonds as well as ETFs invested in the asset class, including potentially some sub-investment grade debt.

The weekly balance sheet data don’t disclose which ETFs the Fed bought, though the central bank has said it will disclose the names of borrowers participating in the program at least once a month.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/fed-has-purchased-1-8-billion-of-corporate-bond-etfs-so-far

How does buying ETFs turn into emergency loans?

[bernorange 8,359]

6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How does buying ETFs turn into emergency loans?

The ETFs they are buying are focused on buying corporate debt.  They don't want to buy the corporate debt directly because "picking winners and losers", so it's a compromise.  Many pundits have already covered the issue raising the point that buying the ETFs doesn't really solve the issue that the program was intended to solve.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

Yeah, your last sentence is what I'm thinking.  These ETFs hold corporate debt, but that debt has already been issued and the companies received the money from those bonds already.

Someone buys units of an ETF it's not like the companies are getting any more capital.  I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?

[Parliament 14,255]

I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?

What would you have them do with all the money they're printing? Buy baseball cards?

[Continental Op 3,934]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

 

 

What would you have them do with all the money they're printing? Buy baseball cards?
 

 

I haven't looked in a long time but I would imagine that my 1989 Upper Deck Jerome Walton rookie cards have substantially appreciated in value, right?

[Incredulity 11,665]

5 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

I haven't looked in a long time but I would imagine that my 1989 Upper Deck Jerome Walton rookie cards have substantially appreciated in value, right?

No, but the Greg Jeffries is worth an absolute fortune.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

Billy Ripken Fuck Face imo

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

5 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, your last sentence is what I'm thinking.  These ETFs hold corporate debt, but that debt has already been issued and the companies received the money from those bonds already.

Someone buys units of an ETF it's not like the companies are getting any more capital.  I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?

Yes, it’s to support companies future bond issuance. They’re gonna need to borrow a lot more. 

[washparkhorn 9,939]

Wrong forum. Sorry. 
 

Edited May 22, 2020 by washparkhorn

[TonyTexas 10,510]

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8,349]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Billy Ripken Fuck Face imo

Craig Nettles Fleer or GTFO 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

7 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

The HK situation was going on prior to the Rona and had no impact on the market rally from late 2019 until Feb.

[milkman 428]

Saw this chart yesterday. Not sure how far back they go with the data but it’s pretty interesting.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[closetohumping 17,438]

fauci said mod vaccine looks quite promising 

[bernorange 8,359]

How long will equity markets keep shooting the moon when this starts picking up steam?

Quote

The monthly tally of defaults in the U.S. leveraged loan market has hit a six-year high, data from Fitch Ratings showed, as companies are either missing payments or filing for bankruptcy because of the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-debt-leveraged-idUSKBN22X1BD