Markets still falling like whoa

[TonyTexas 10569]

1 hour ago, milkman said:

Saw this chart yesterday. Not sure how far back they go with the data but it’s pretty interesting.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Unless I’m missing something, that table is total bullshit. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Unless I’m missing something, that table is total bullshit. 

Have you not read “The Very Predictable Walk Down Wall Street?”

[hornbri 1465]

5 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Unless I’m missing something, that table is total bullshit. 

Yeah, it does not make much sense at all. 

[milkman 428]

9 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

Unless I’m missing something, that table is total bullshit. 

Call it what you want but.......I stole this from the folks at Stockcharts.com. It’s a table showing average pre-holiday results over the last 50 years.

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

Yeah, the average yearly return for the stock market is not 31 fucking percent over the last 50 years.  But that's basically what the table is saying if'n you buy two days before the New Year and sell at the end of the year.

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

The difference in the two columns would imply huge single day moves that can’t possibly average out on the same calendar day over the years. 

[hornbri 1465]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, the average yearly return for the stock market is not 31 fucking percent over the last 50 years.  But that's basically what the table is saying if'n you buy two days before the New Year and sell at the end of the year.

But but he saw it in the internet it must be true!

[Captainant 27972]

17 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I guess it props up the overall corporate debt market to keep interest rates in check and provides a synthetic demand for more corporate debt until things get back to normal.  Is that the reasoning behind it?

I thought that's what the BRRRRRRRRRT was for?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13540]

Wow.  Buy stocks the day before Christmas and get an average of a 15% return by the next week.

[drt 640]

I just re-balanced into some lower expense funds due to a job change.  I'm sure that means the market is about to take a gigantic shit.

[Trey3216 15380]

19 hours ago, Baconboy said:

CSB: 4 or 5 years ago when NVDA was at like $38/share I got one of those typical cold calls from a fresh-out-of-school kid with a strong NY accent begging me to listen to his one tip and if it worked out promise I'd give him more to invest. His whole pitch was about NVDA and for the first time ever I thought to myself, "this pitch actually makes sense." I of course did nothing.

That's probably about the same time I bought PBT, which I'm still holding. Stonks!

I bought 2000 shares of NVDA in my Dad’s acct at 27 for the same reasons.  Sold them at 51, and used some of the money to buy AMD at 4. Sold the AMD at 12.  Jesus what I’d do to still have those positions 

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

Your dad is very disappointed in you.  You should feel bad.

[Blotto 23703]

3 hours ago, hornbri said:

Yeah, it does not make much sense at all. 

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading_strategies:the_pre-holiday_effect

Dataset is also 1928 to 1975. Still doesnt make any sense to me. For example:

Quote

To put those returns in perspective, if you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 Index in January 1928 and sold it all in December 1975, you would have ended up with $51,441. However, if you had invested one-ninth of your money just before each pre-holiday period (selling everything at the end of the year), you would have finished with $1,440,716. Not bad!

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Blotto

[Wally Fairway 5600]

2 hours ago, hornbri said:

But but he saw it in the internet it must be true!

you really need to give proper references to your quotes

[dcar00 14608]

16 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Billy Ripken Fuck Face imo

1972 Billy Martin...the OG

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I bought 2000 shares of NVDA in my Dad’s acct at 27 for the same reasons.  Sold them at 51, and used some of the money to buy AMD at 4. Sold the AMD at 12.  Jesus what I’d do to still have those positions 

Based on my math, if you'd have found some other money to buy those AMD shares instead of selling your NVDA, you'd have changed your $54,000 NVDA and $102,000 AMD into $722,000 in NVDA + $1,406,000 in AMD = $2,128,000.  

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

22 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

if you'd have found some other money to buy those AMD shares instead of selling your NVDA

Should have had his old man take out a home equity loan to buy the AMD shares. And he claims to be a financial advisor?  Pshaw.

[Anastasis 23508]

checks in on futures...

[LTtxfan 49405]

32 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

checks in on futures...

 

Dow futures surge 400 points on hopes of a coronavirus vaccine

 

American biotech company Novavax said Monday it started the first human study of its experimental coronavirus vaccine. The company said it expects initial results on safety and immune responses in July.  

 

 

Edited May 26, 2020 by LTtxfan

[Anastasis 23508]

First patient in? Market moves 1.8%. LOL. 

[Eastwood 4394]

My bet is on Pfizer coming out with the vaccine first.

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

5 hours ago, Eastwood said:

My bet is on Pfizer coming out with the vaccine first.

They are known for providing stiff competition. 

[Blotto 23703]

With probably 50+ companies all working on vaccines, thats enough press releases to get the S&P over 4000 by the end of June. 

[ChiTownDoc 21221]

7 hours ago, Anastasis said:

First patient in? Market moves 1.8%. LOL. 

10th company to get to that stage.  Lol.  To the mooooooon!

[BevoSwag 272]

On 5/22/2020 at 12:37 AM, TonyTexas said:

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

Beijing could drop bombs on HK this morning and the US markets would rise 10%.  There is no logic any longer to this market other than a crap shoot.

[BevoSwag 272]

She reminded him he is supposed to push the button lolhttps://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1265274630304075776

[Anastasis 23508]

8 hours ago, Eastwood said:

My bet is on Pfizer coming out with the vaccine first.

AZ with Oxford vaccine would be my bet, if you put a gun to my head. 

[troph 24928]

Beijing could drop bombs on HK this morning and the US markets would rise 10%.  There is no logic any longer to this market other than a crap shoot.

Invest with Bobby Axelrod and you’re golden.

[BevoSwag 272]

1 minute ago, troph said:

Invest with Bobby Axelrod and you’re golden.

LOL.  My one attempt at shorting (SNV) has blown up this morning too   Do you have his number?  Do I have to have more than $3k for Bobby's assistance?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

The entire world right now

its a fugazzi 

it doesn’t exist on the elemental charts

[Eastwood 4394]

I'm sitting today out. Feels like a bull trap, right now. We'll see what the week brings.

[Southland 35]

Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

[52-80 19277]

4 minutes ago, Southland said:

Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

if you wanted to get fucked out of your hard-earned money, you should just get married

[Wally Fairway 5600]

6 hours ago, Southland said:

A) I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

B)Also, otherthan the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

A) Stonk investors don't do that analysis.

B) If you are right, options will give you more upside to balance the 100% downside

 

[LABEVO 928]

 

[LTtxfan 49405]

10 hours ago, Southland said:

Say someone had a few thousand dollars they wanted to make a stonks bet on the S&P 500 going down in the next 6-12 months. What would be the best method for doing this?

I understand the concept of a put option and how they work, but don't understand how they are priced. Any good resources to learn about this? How do you know if they are "expensive" and if this information is already "priced in"? I've read some on the Black Scholes model, but where I tend to get lost is with the implied volatility.

Also, other than the infinite downside, which I would think would be more limited when shorting an index vs individual stock, what would be the difference between shorting the index vs buying put options?

Free Resource with training/webinars on options:  The Options Industry Council (OIC)

OIC is an industry resource supported by OCC (Options Clearing Corporation) to provide trustworthy education about the benefits and risks of exchange-listed options.   Since 1992, OIC has been dedicated to increasing the awareness, knowledge and responsible use of options by individual investors, financial advisors and institutional managers.

https://www.optionseducation.org 

 

Also here's an article on simulators you can practice trading options on without any risk of losing money.... (OIC has a simulator on their website)

https://www.personalincome.org/best-options-trading-simulator-2020/

 

Edited May 27, 2020 by LTtxfan

[ChiTownDoc 21221]

On 5/22/2020 at 12:37 AM, TonyTexas said:

Chinese shenanigans in Hong Kong might derail the rally for a while. The Hang Seng down 5% overnight. 

Chinese shenanigans you say?  Those were priced in, bro.  
 

But seriously, I called a rally here through summer a little over a week ago.  And I also admit that call would be the death knell for said rally.  Loaded up on some index funds and crossed my fingers.  That’s the best strategy these days.  To the moon!

[Captainant 27972]

I wish someone could explain how we could rally in the stock market while at historically high unemployment numbers that are still getting worse. Just breaks every basic assumption on how markets work, the engine of consumption is shrinking so why is the market growing, if this isn't all just a bubble?

[ChiTownDoc 21221]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I wish someone could explain how we could rally in the stock market while at historically high unemployment numbers that are still getting worse. Just breaks every basic assumption on how markets work, the engine of consumption is shrinking so why is the market growing, if this isn't all just a bubble?

It will run to fall and crash because the only thing not priced in is the next flare up.  The next flare up is science.  Zero way it’s not happening when it gets cold.  

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

I wish someone could explain how we could rally in the stock market while at historically high unemployment numbers that are still getting worse. Just breaks every basic assumption on how markets work, the engine of consumption is shrinking so why is the market growing, if this isn't all just a bubble?

In theory, investment cash has to go somewhere. Since interest rates are so low people don't want their money in banks/bonds. You can invest in real estate but that's not very liquid and the market is saturated, so your choice is "sit on the sidelines" or equities. Investors don't want to sit on the sidelines because they fear "missing out" on the jump. 

It's really just psychological and has little to do with the actual strength of the markets.

[UTexasFight 9607]

In theory, investment cash has to go somewhere. Since interest rates are so low people don't want their money in banks/bonds. You can invest in real estate but that's not very liquid and the market is saturated, so your choice is "sit on the sidelines" or equities. Investors don't want to sit on the sidelines because they fear "missing out" on the jump. 
It's really just psychological and has little to do with the actual strength of the markets.

aka TINA.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

6 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

aka TINA.

 

Bingo.

[52-80 19277]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

In theory, investment cash has to go somewhere. Since interest rates are so low people don't want their money in banks/bonds. You can invest in real estate but that's not very liquid and the market is saturated, so your choice is "sit on the sidelines" or equities. Investors don't want to sit on the sidelines because they fear "missing out" on the jump. 

It's really just psychological and has little to do with the actual strength of the markets.

arent bond values actually going up, even low-interest bearing ones, because market interest rates are dropping. 

i dont have data that shows capital flows... but i imagine thats a healthy market right now

 

jamie, pull that shit up

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

It will run to fall and crash because the only thing not priced in is the next flare up.  The next flare up is science.  Zero way it’s not happening when it gets cold.  

What bad do you think it'll flare up in the fall?

[ChiTownDoc 21221]

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What bad do you think it'll flare up in the fall?

Imo it will be worse.  
 

One, some places should have opened up sooner - like Chicago where hospitals have plenty of capacity but we are still stuck with nothing open - so when they say lockdown a second time nobody will listen. 

Two, coronaviruses tend to wreak more havoc in cold weather anyway and there’s very little herd immunity, which could have helped mitigate the second wave.  

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13153]

16 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

What bad do you think it'll flare up in the fall?

Almost as bad as your grammar.

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

1 minute ago, Casual Encounter said:

Almost as bad as your grammar.

Do wut?

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 hour ago, Casual Encounter said:

Almost as bad as your grammar.

Corona killed his grammar

[Wally Fairway 5600]

4 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Imo it will be worse.  
 

One, some places should have opened up sooner - like Chicago where hospitals have plenty of capacity but we are still stuck with nothing open - so when they say lockdown a second time nobody will listen. 

Two, coronaviruses tend to wreak more havoc in cold weather anyway and there’s very little herd immunity, which could have helped mitigate the second wave.  

Okay - but can you give us some insight on this most important of specific questions?


Will the 2nd wave come late enough to allow college football?
(asking for a friend - a Surly friend)

[ChiTownDoc 21221]

11 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Okay - but can you give us some insight on this most important of specific questions?


Will the 2nd wave come late enough to allow college football?
(asking for a friend - a Surly friend)

I sure as fuck hope so - or at least get plenty of games in and resume in spring.   It beats no football.  

Or better yet, I'm totally wrong and there's not second wave and we get the entire season in.  I would much rather have the shame of being wrong, vs no cfb.